Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

Acknowledgements to

Navale Pandharinath & C.K.Rajan : Earth and Atmospheric

Disaster Management, Natural and Man Made Version,

BS Publication,2009

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

Module I - Disaster Management Plan (DMP)

Introduction:

According to WHO, "A disaster is an event that causes damage, economic disruption, loss of
human life and deterioration of health and the health of societies on a scale sufficient to
warrant an extra-ordinary response from outside the effected community or area".

Most of the severe floods are caused by the rivers that originate in the Himalayas. To combat
floods the Rashtriya Barh Ayog was established in 1978, Task Force on flood management and
Erosion control in 2004. The primary responsibility of flood control rests with State
Governments. The responsibility of NOMA (2005) is (i) prevention, (ii) preparedness, (iii)
mitigation, (iv) rehabilitation (v) reconstruction (vi) recovery and (vii) formulation of
appropriate policies and guidelines for disaster management.

Flood management includes structural measures like flood embankments, dams, reservoirs,
channel improvement, drainage improvement, diversion of flood waters, afforestation,
catchment area treatment and anti-erosion works. Flood management courses being
introduced in professional institutions.

On an average annually 5 to 6 cyclones form in the Indian seas of which 2 to 3 become severe.
East coast is more vulnerable to cyclones than west coast of India. 13 coastal States and Union
Territories with 84 coastal districts are directly effected by cyclones. India Meteorological
Department provides four stage cyclone warnings. Under NOMA, National Cyclone Risk
Mitigation Project (NCRMP) drawn up to mitigate cyclone risk in all coastal districts.

According to intergovernmental panel on climate change 20 to 30 species face extinction due

to temperature rise, glaciers retreat in the Himalayas, due to sea level rise millions in control
areas will be at risk, production of wheat, maize and rice will drop in India and China and
more than one billion people may face fresh water shortage by 2020.

1.1 Disaster Management Plan (DMP) – General

 Disasters both natural and man made and climate change are much older than
the oldest epics on the globe. Many of the epics mostly deal with the natural or
man made disasters and climate change.
 The basic cause for this is attributed to human explosion, rapid industrialisation,
urbanisation, global warming, environmental pollution and religious fanaticism.
 Government of India passed Disaster Management Act in both houses of
parliament in 2005 and it was approved by the President of India on 23rd Dec
2005. Under this Act, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) was
created under the Chairmanship of Prime Minister.
 In accordance with this Act, National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and
National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) are to be created, the later
will work under the guideline of NDMA.
 At the behest of NDMA, State Governments creating State Disaster Management
Authority at the State HQ, under the Chairmanship of respective State Chief
Ministers

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 DMA shall work under District Collector, MandaI Revenue Officer, Serpanch
respectively, roping in workers both from government and NGO's.
 Local committees shall be formed involving stakeholders, NGOs, Corporate
Sector, Volunteers, Indian Red Cross Society, NCC, Scout and Guides, Civil
Defence, Home Guards, District, Man4al and Local Panchayat Representatives
and Prominent Doctors, retired Teachers, Postman etc.
 These NDRF units provide training to other local units in the state of the art
equipments.
 For disaster mitigation a number of disaster mitigation projects shall be initiated
in respect of cyclones. Earthquakes, floods, droughts, medical preparedness,
mass casualty management, National mitigation reserves, Information and
Communication Networks, shall be developed using the latest technologies.
 NDMA provides guidelines to the states in coordination with stakeholders on
preparedness and mitigation of floods, cyclones, earthquakes, chemical
(industrial) disaster, medical preparedness, biological hazards, Insurance and
disaster preparedness involving local people.
 The primary responsibility of flood control rests with State Governments. The
responsibility of NDMA (2005) is prevention, preparedness, mitigation,
rehabilitation, reconstruction, recovery and formulation of appropriate policies
and guidelines for disaster management.
 Flood management includes structural measures like flood embankments, dams,
reservoirs, channel improvement, drainage improvement, diversion of flood
waters, afforestation, catchment area treatment and anti-erosion works.
 The NDMA and the Government of India seek the support and cooperation of
various stakeholder groups, NGOs and common people, in ensuring for the
institutionalization of earthquake risk reduction initiatives in the country.
 In view of recent chemical tragedies and terrorism explosion, the medical
preparedness for CBRN (Chemical, Biological Radiological and Nuclear)
management requires standard operating procedures (SOPs) for CBRN
management at the incident site for triage, personal protection,
decontamination, resuscitation, casuality evacuation followed by treatment of
exposed victims at the hospital level.
 NDMA, Government of India with all stakeholders and experts in the country
taking a proactive initiative for institutionalization of medical management by
formulating national guidelines for all stakeholders and in the public domain.
 According to WHO, "A disaster is an event that causes damage, economic
disruption, loss of human life and deterioration of health and the health of
societies on a scale sufficient to warrant an extraordinary response from outside
the effected community or area".
 Any extreme hazard event becomes a disaster when it severely affects the human
habitation, its social, economic activities and health services on a large scale and
badly requires mitigating response from outside the affected community or area.

1.1.1 Cyclone monitoring and mitigation group will consist of:

 representatives of the States vulnerable to cyclones,
 the IMD (India Meteorological Department)
 National Remote sensing Centre (NRSC) and
 Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

Cyclone Monitoring and Mitigation Group constituted and is headed by the Secretary
(BM), Ministry of Home Affairs. The aim of Monitoring and Mitigation group is to
strengthen the existing cyclone tracking, monitoring and early warning and its
dissemination mechanism at National, State, District and Community level.

Natural hazards are associated with geological, atmospheric, ecological and biological
events. These can be categorized as:
(i) meteorological (including hydrological) and (ii) other types (iii) Man made

1.1.2 The most common natural hazards associated with meteorological events are:

 Tropical cyclones, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tornadoes, Waterspouts,

Thunderstorms, Hailstorms, Norwesters, Sand/Dust storms, Heat waves,
widespread snowfall, smog, fog and climate change. The hydrological hazards are
floods, droughts, avalanches, tsunamis.

 The other types of hazards include earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes, forest

fires, infestations etc.

 Man made disasters include accidents (like train, bus, plane etc.), big fires, bomb
explosions, caving of mines, food poisoning, hooch tragedies, chemical
contamination (pollution of air, water and so nuclear accidents, human suicide
bombs, extremist attacks, hostages and killings, mutiny, war, communal flares,
mass exodus, weapons of mass destruction etc.

The root cause of many of man made disasters are attributed to social evils, supremacy
of one man or society over the other, ignorance, revenge and hatred. Some known
examples are:

(i) Nuclear/ atomic bomb explosions - Atom bomb explosions over Nagasaki, Hiroshima
cities in Japan.
(ii) Biological chemical- Pathogens, Bird flue, Madcow disease, Anthrox.
(iii) Radioactive chemicals - Chernobyl (Russia 1986) nuclear accident, Bhopal (India)
Isocyanide gas fumes tragedy (1998).
(iv) Smog tragedy - Over London (1952), Mouse valley Belgium (1930),Los Angeles
(1944)
(v) Human suicide bombs - 9111 aircraft explosions over World Trade Centre,
Perumbadoor (India, TamilNadu) Rajiv Gandhi assasination etc.
(vi) History provides unending tragedies of wars.

In recent times both natural and man-made disasters are in the increasing trend, which
is attributed to population explosion, ignorance, pervertedness and negligence. It is
forecasted that the occurrence of natural and man-made hazards shall remain the same
in future as they are at present if not more. However a great deal can be done to
minimise the losses of life and property.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

The statistics of natural disasters in India during 1900 to 2005 indicates that there had
been 160 floods, 21 droughts and 24 earthquakes. The statistics of ten major global
natural disasters during 1947-1980 is given in the Table l.l ranking by virtue of their
ferosity (Bindi V. Shah 1983).

Important World Worst tragedies are given in Table 1.2

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 In all disasters atmospheric (meteorological and hydrological), geological,

ecological, biological events, weather plays an important role, that it adds fuel to
the fire. About 90% of all natural disasters account to (Cyclones, floods and
droughts) hydro meteorological events, which cause heavy devastation to
property and loss of life account about 65% of total damage of natural disasters.

 Disaster management is a part of government and it is coming down from the

ages. To handle any type of natural or man-made crisis a thorough contingency
plan exists at National and State level. At the National level organisation for
different crisis is given in Table 1.3.

 The estimated annual loss due to natural disasters is about 2 to 3 percent of

National income. 85% of the country is prone to natural disasters.

 It is highest in southeast Asia. Drought prone area is about 68% of the cultivable
area, Flood prone area is about 12 to 13% of the geographical area.

 Every year floods are experienced in about 2% of the geographical area. More
than 50% of the geographical area is vulnerable to seismicity. about 2000 sq.km
area in India is exposed to avalanches and landslides, and most part of northwest
India is attacked by desert locust.

 Increased use of the knowledge of weather and climate certainly will contribute
to the protection of life and property. mitigation of natural disasters and.side by
side promotes sustainable development.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.1.3 The standard operating procedures (SOPs) of cyclone disaster management plan
are:

 Disaster preparedness- Long term, like construction of shelter belts, cyclone

shelters, education etc.
 Disaster preparedness-just before the event, like alerting the people, storing
food, water, machinery etc.
 Action after receipt of warning - like evacuation of people from low-lying
vulnerable areas which are likely to be affected, cancelling the leave of officials
and ask them to proceed to their assigned work etc.
 Rescue operations before impact of cyclone.
 Actions during impact phase of cyclone.
 Rescue operations after impact of cyclone.
 Relief operations after disaster (that is after dewarning of cyclone)
 Rehabilitation operation
 Reconstruction operation

1.1.4 Disaster Preparedness Involves

 Understanding the hazards associated with the type of event - like cyclone, flood,
drought, earthquake etc.
 Understanding the ways how the type of event inflicts losses. In case of cyclone
the losses occur due to heavy rains, strong winds, storm surges.
 Vulnerability or susceptibility. In case of cyclone low lying coastal areas are
susceptible to inundation and wind fury, which inflicts damage to life and
property like assets (Government and private), roads, bunds of tanks and rivers,
uproots or damages trees, telegraphs and electric lines etc.
 Vulnerability reduction. Actions and measures that reduces vulnerability. In case
of floods and cyclones strengthening of bunds, coastal flood embarkments,
shelter belts, wind breakers etc.

1.2 Cyclone and their Hazard Potential

 Tropical cyclones are the most destructive phenomena of atmospheric nature.

They are foremost in their violence, destruction and duration. They generally
form over the sea, strike the coastal areas with their ferocity of winds, torrential
rains and inundate the area with storm surges.
 Compare with other natural disasters, an earthquake short lived (one or two
minutes) but cause much more devastation to life and property.
 Tornadoes are the most violent storms on earth but they are small in size and
cause destruction in their narrow path for a short period.
 Extra tropical cyclones of winter are the largest phenomena of the atmosphere
but they are very mild as compared to tropical cyclones.
 It was estimated that a normal cyclone precipitates water about 2 giga tons (2 x
109 tons) in an hour and dissipates about 36 x 1010 kwh of kinetic energy.
 A moderate cyclone releases large amounts of energy, of which about 3% is in
the form of wind and wave energy. This energy is sufficient for all the needs of
100-150 million people for a year.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 Tropical cyclones are known by different names over different parts of the globe.
Over Indian seas they are called cyclones. Western Pacific they called Typhoons
(when wind speed exceeds 118 kmph or 64 kt), in Atlantic and eastern pacific
they are called Hurricanes. In Australia they are named Willy-Willies, in
Philippines as Baguios and in Maxico Cordonazo. Our knowledge of cyclones has
been built up gradually as and when more and more sophisticated instruments
were invented.

 Initially the knowledge of cyclones based on ship reports and coastal

meteorological observations when they approached the coast. Subsequently it
was built on aircraft reconnaissance flight reports and then Radar observations.

 1960, weather satellite observations greatly contributed to our knowledge and

now with these satellite observations none of the cyclones overseas escape
detection.

 Technical advances in systems for observing Tropical cyclones is given in Table

1.2.1 and cyclone detection and observation given in Fig. 1.2.1.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.3 Classification of Low-Pressure Systems

Tropical cyclones are the intense atmospheric low pressure systems that form over the
sea, where sea surface temperature is more than 26 °c. They germinate as tropical
disturbances or low pressure areas. IMD classified these low pressure systems based on
surface wind speed over sea area

1.3.1 Table represents classification of tropical disturbances.

1.3.2 Table shows International Hurricane Scale

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 Tropical cyclones generally form over warm sea waters (temperature 26°C or
more).They dissipate when moved over to cold waters or crossed coast or
recurved over to subtropics.
 The average life span of a cyclone is about six days until they land or recurve into
temperate latitudes.
 In northern hemisphere the wind and cloud bands spiral in anticlockwise sense
while in southern hemisphere they spiral in clockwise sense.
 Tropical cyclones have four stages of life cycle. Formative, immature, mature and
decaying stage.
 There is no set duration that a storm may be in one stage. The storm may skip
any stage or go through in such a short period that it is not possible to
distinguish with synoptic available data.

1.3.3 Table- Beaufort Scale

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.3.4 Table Represents Hurricane Scale Damages

A fully developed cyclonic storm can be divided horizontally at surface level into four
regions.

 The central area (radius 20 to 50 km) with calm or light winds and generally
clear sky, is called the Eye of the cyclone.

 The adjacent ring shaped area (ring width 10 to 20 km) with virtually overcast
sky, towering cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds is called Wall-cloud Region.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 The third region of ring shaped area, radius extending upto 80 km from the
centre, with strong hurricane winds (speed 118 kmph or more) is called a belt of
hurricane winds.

 The fourth , last region extending 200 to 500 km radius from the centre is called
outer ring region .

 The fourth , last region extending 200 to 500 km radius from the centre is called
outer ring region . The diameter of a tropical cyclone is of the order 100 to 1000
km or more. Some may have diameter as small as 30 km.

 The greatest damage caused by a cyclone is its hurricane winds and storm surges
(tides). At sea, some storms produce distinctive heavy swell, that effects ocean
shipping.

 As storm travels and approaches the coast,the piling up of water by strong winds
produce a disastrous storm surge (tidal wave) which inundate coastal areas,
particularly river mouth deltoic areas.

1.3.5 Schematic diagram of a mature cyclone with cloud, temperature and wind
distribution

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.4 Statistics of Cyclonic Storms Over Indian Seas

 Studies of past historical cyclone data indicate that about 85% of depressions
intensify into cyclonic storms with in 48 hours of their formation and within 12
to 24 hrs on 40% of the occasions.
 Cyclonic storms attain severe intensity within 36 hours on 75% of the occasions.
More than 50% of cyclonic disturbances that form in the Bay of Bengal in the
months of March, April, May, November and December intensify into cyclonic
storms.

1.4.1 Table - Statistics of CS and SCS crossing Indian coast during 1891-2000.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 The global annual average of tropical cyclones is 80, which affect about 50
countries and its annual variation is about 8 (that is 10%). Year to year variation
of cyclonic disturbances and cyclonic storms are large.

 The average life period of cyclone storm is 6 days. In indian seas the annual
average of cyclonic disturbances is about 16 (Bay of Bengal 13) and standard
deviation is 3.1. Its variation is 7 in 1984 and 23 in 1927.

 The annual average of tropical cyclones (in indian seas) is about 6 (that is about
7% of global total), standard deviation is 1.85. Its variation is 1 in 1949 and 10 in
each of the years 1893, 1926, 1930 and 1976.

 The average life period of cyclones in Indian seas is 1.5 days. The worlds longest
record life period of tropical cyclone is 31 days, in case of Hurricane Ginger
formed in Atlantic ocean in 1972, while in Indian seas 14 days

 The radius of global tropical cyclones vary 50-100 km to 2000 km, while a large
number of cyclones in Indian seas had diameter less than 100 km.

 The lowest pressure in a tropical cyclone occurs in its Eye (central) region the
global lowest pressure of 870 hPa was recorded in Typhoon Tip in Pacific on 12
october 1979, which had sustained wind speed of 165 kt.

 The maximum sustained wind speed for cyclones in Indian seas is given by the
empirical formula

 where
Vmax = Maximum sustained wind speed in kt
P n = Peripheral pressure of cyclone in hPa
Po = lowest central pressure in the cyclone Eye in hPa

 A hurricane wind speed of 100 kt creates roughly a wave height of about 30 m

and kinetic energy about 1019J.

 The liberation of this much of energy and its conversion into heat does not warm
the ocean surface water but instead cools it. It mixes the ocean water to a depth
of about 200 m to 400 m in an area of about 50 to 100 km of radius.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.5 Movement of Cyclones in Indian seas

 Prediction of the movement of a cyclone is a very difficult job because it is

erratic. However the past data of more than 100 years reveal the climatic
movement.

 The number of cyclones that cross or accost or skirt the east coast of Srilanka,
Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and Bangladesh is highest during October,
November, December

 While that affect Orissa, West Bengal, Arakan coasts is maximum during
monsoon (June, September) months and March, April, May.

 Most of the cyclonic storms (about 65%) form in the months of April, May and in
October, November and December. During January, February and March
cyclones do not form in Arabian sea, while in Bay of Bengal they are a few and far
between.

 In these months they originate between lat 5oN and 8 oN, move in a westerly or
northwesterly direction and hit the coast of north Tamilnadu and east coast of
Srilanka.

 During April, May they form between lat 8 oN and 15 oN, move initially in a
northwesterly or northerly direction and then recurve. In Bay of Bengal the
whole east coast of India, coastal areas of Bangladesh and Arakan coast of
Myanmar are prone to the incidence of cyclones.

 Arabian sea, they move towards the coast of Arabia. A few move in northerly
direction towards Maharastra, Gujarat coasts.

 During June to September (monsoon months) there will mostly be monsoon

depressions and rarely cyclonic storms.

 During June, in Bay of Bengal, they originate between lat 16 oN and 21 oN and
west of long 92°E, move in a northwesterly direction, cross coast and weaken.

 During July, August, in Bay of Bengal, they originate between lat 16 oN 2 I oN and
west of long 92°E, move in a northwesterly or west north-westerly direction and
cross coast between the zone of lat 20 oN -25 oN.

 In Arabian sea there is abrupt fall from June to almost nil in July, August,
September. During September Bay storms originate north of lat 15 oN and west
of long 900 E, move initially in west or northwesterly direction, later recurve
towards north-north-east.

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

 During October, November the Bay cyclonic storms originate between lat 8 oN
and 14°N, move initially in northwesterly or west-north-westerly direction. Most
of them later recurve north-eastwards.

 During these months north coastal Tamilnadu, Andhra, Bangladesh coasts are
vulnerable to the incidence of cyclones. In Arabian sea they move initially west
or northwesterly direction upto lat 15 oN then recurve northeast wards and hit
Maharashtra, Gujarat coasts.

 During December the frequency of storms fall. Most of the Bay cyclones originate
between lat 5 oN - 10 oN and move initially in a northwesterly direction, strike
Tamilnadu coast or northeast coast of Srilanka.

 A few of these cross south peninsula and enter into Arabian sea. The position of
formation of Tropical storms migrate with the movement the sun both
northwards and southwards.

1.6 Storm Surges

 Storm surge means the rapid rise in the sea level water due to winds, pressure
changes (falls), ocean waves and ocean currents associated with a single storm at
the time of storm crossing the coast.

 Storm surges inundate coastal low lying areas, cause havoc to life and property.
More than 75% loss of life and property in tropical cyclone is attributed to storm
surges.

 All storm surges are associated with severe cyclones but all severe cyclones are
not accompanied by storm surges.

 Hurricanes, Typhoons are much severe than the cyclones of Bay of Bengal but the
storm surges developed by the former in general are not so high as the Bay
severe cyclones. It appears Bay of Bengal is the worst with regard to storm
surges.

 Storm surges may occur before, during or after storm crossed the coast. There
seems no precise method of predicting storm surges. ·

 However in India an empirical model nomograms were developed by Ghosh

(1977), which are being used successfully with minor modifications.

 According to empirical storm surge model, the maximum storm surge heights
along east coast of India at important locations

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.6.1 Figure shows the vulnerable areas for storm surges along the coast and the
distribution incidence of cyclonic and severe cyclonic storms.

1.6.2 Table – Vulnerable areas for storm surges

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.
 Regulation 2018(CBCS Scheme) 18EE753- Disaster Management

1.6.3 Table : Storm Serge Heights

Prof.V.Yamuna,Dept of CSE.