COP28 Action Agenda:

Potential Impact to 2030

December 2023
COP28 Action Agenda

Sector Ambition

Renewables • Triple total installed renewables capacity from ~3.5 TW to ~11 TW by 2030

Energy Efficiency • Double annual energy efficiency improvements from ~2% to ~4% by 2030

• Net Zero Scope 1&2 emissions by 2050

Oil and Gas
• Near-zero methane and zero routine flaring by 2030

CCS • Aspirational goal for gigatonne-scale CCUS by 2030

Heavy Emitting Sectors • Launch of Industrial Transition Accelerator

Deforestation • Protect, restore and sustainably manage forest basins in key tropical countries

• Accelerate uptake of alternative proteins, fertilizer innovations, dietary shifts, and

Agriculture and Food
reductions in methane emissions

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Pursuing the 1.5ºC North Star: emissions reductions required by 2030

Global CO2 emissions Global CH4 emissions

GtCO2 MtCH4

45 400
41 380
= 3 GtCO2e on
40
350 100yr basis;
~35% = 9 GtCO2e on
35
~50% 300 20 year basis
30
250 250
25
21 200
20

150
15

10 100

5 50

0
0
2030 2030 2030 2030
Business as 1.5ºC pathway Business as 1.5ºC pathway
usual usual

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 Prudent assessment of impact

Global CO2 emissions Global CH4 emissions

GtCO2 MtCH4

45 400
380 30
41 3.5
40 15
2.5 350 10
325 75
~0.1 ~0.4 0.2-0.3 1
35 33 12 300

30 250
250
25
21 200
20
150
15

100
10

5 50

0 0
2030 - Electrification O&G CCS Heavy Food 2030 - Remaining 2030 - 2030 - O&G Food China 2030 - Remaining 2030 -
Baseline and Scope Emitting and Including Gap Required Baseline Scope and Pledge Including Gap Required
Renewables Energy 1&2 Sectors Land Mitigation for 1.5C 1&2 Land Mitigation for 1.5C
Efficiency

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Tripling renewables: actions required

• Strategic vision: setting clear national targets in line with the global tripling
commitment

• Faster permitting – halving timescales for wind, solar

• Investing in the grids needed to connect renewable resources

• Quadrupling of investment in low- and middle-income countries, to ~$650 bn p.a. by

2030

5
Doubling energy efficiency: actions required

• As much electrification as possible – replacing internal combustion engines with electric

vehicles; gas boilers with electric heat pumps

• Increasing technical efficiency of key equipment: heat pumps and air-conditioners

• Accelerating retrofit of existing buildings to make more efficient

• Efficiency improvements in internal combustion engines

• Behavioural changes, e.g. lower driving speeds, lower thermostat settings for heating,
higher settings for air conditioning

6
Oil and Gas: actions required

• Independently verified and accurate measurement

• Strong and tightly enforced regulations

• Economic incentives: e.g., US Inflation Reduction Act’s explicit methane price

• Need to apply measures across all geographies and companies

7
Carbon Capture: actions required

• Stronger policies to make CCUS economic, incl. subsidies, regulatory requirements or

carbon prices

• Coordinated action to develop the shared infrastructure of transport and storage

• High capture rates and strong transparency

• Annual investment of ~$70 bn p.a. by 2030, more than 10x current levels

8
Industry Transition Accelerator: specific actions to drive rapid progress

• Increased and widespread commitments

• Critical mass of early demand for green products

• Targeted public subsidies, financial institution support and value chain coordination to
stimulate the initial projects

• Long-term economic incentives: carbon prices or volume mandates

9
Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use: actions required

• Strong policy and enforcement

• Increase in grant and concessional payments

• Research, development and deployment of alternatives to meat and dairy

• Best practices at specific national/local levels

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 Maximum potential if all countries committed, and strong policies drive
implementation
Global CO2 emissions Global CH4 emissions
GtCO2 MtCH4

45 400 380 60
41 4
40 350
5 25
35 15
~0.2 300
1 280 30
~0.6 3
30 250
27 6 250
25
21 200
20
150
15

100
10

5 50

0 0
2030 - Renewables Energy O&G CCS Heavy Food 2030 - Remaining 2030 - 2030 - O&G Food China 2030 - Gap 2030 -
Baseline Efficiency Scope Emitting and Including Gap Required Baseline Scope and Pledge Including Required
1&2 Sectors Land Mitigation for 1.5C 1&2 Land Mitigation for 1.5C

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Implications of full implementation for fossil fuel demand

Coal, Mtce Gas, bcm Oil, Mb/d

6,000 4,500 100 97 20

5,800 1,700
4,150 700 84-93
4,000 90
5,000 4,000-4,800 ~3,500
3,450 80 77 77
3,500 3,400
4,100 70
4,000 3,000
60
3,250 2,500
3,000 50
2,000
40
2,000 1,500
30
1,000 20
1,000
500 10

0 0 0
2022 COP28 2030 IEA NZE ETC 2022 COP28 2030 IEA NZE ETC 2022 COP28 2030 IEA NZE ETC
Proposals ACF/PBS Proposals ACF/PBS Proposals ACF/PBS

30% reduction 15% reduction 25% reduction

Coal Natural Gas Oil

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