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Lecture8- How to Calculate Conditional Probability in Excel 2 Easy Ways

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17 views

Lecture8- How to Calculate Conditional Probability in Excel 2 Easy Ways

Uploaded by

Ricx Rosco
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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How to Calculate Conditional Probability in Excel

(2 Easy Ways)

October 19, 2022

What Is Probability?
Probability is the mathematical representation of how often an event can occur. It is a
number between 0 to 1. 0 means that an event is not going to happen and 1 represents that
event is certainly going to occur.

What Is Conditional Probability?


Conditional probability is used to calculate the probability of an event (second), depending on
whether another one or more events (first) have already occurred.

Suppose, A & B are two events that can occur.

Now, if the Probability of A = P(A), the Probability of B =P(B) and the Probability of both A &
B = P(A∩B)

Then, the formula of Probability of B, if A event has already occurred,

P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A)

How to Calculate Conditional Probability in Excel: 2 Easy Ways


We can calculate the conditional probability for both one-way and two-way tables in Excel.
Here, you will find these two ways of calculation going through some simple steps given
below.

1. Calculate Conditional Probability for One-Way Table


In the first method, we will show you how you can calculate the conditional probability for a
one-way table. Here, we have a dataset containing the probability of ordering Food, Books,
and both at a time. Now, using this dataset we will show you how you can calculate the

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probability of people who ordered books after conditioning that they have ordered food.

Here are the steps.

Steps:

In the beginning, select Cell C8 and insert the following formula.

=C7/C5

Then, press Enter to get the value of Conditional Probability.

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Here, in the formula, we divided the probability of Ordering both Food and Books in Cell C7
by the probability of Ordering Food in Cell C5 to get the value of Conditional Probability.

2. Determine Conditional Probability for Two-Way Table


In the second method, you will find a way to determine the conditional probability for a two-
way table.

Suppose, you have a dataset containing information about the number of Boys and Girls who
play either Football or Baseball or both. Now, we will show you the way to calculate the
probability of choosing a Boy who also plays Football using the given dataset.

Steps:

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Firstly, select Cell E9 and insert the following formula.

=E5/E7

Secondly, press Enter to get the probability of choosing a boy, P(B).

Here, in the formula, we divided the value of the total number of boys in Cell E5 by the value
of the total number of students in Cell E7 to get the probability of choosing a boy.

Then, select Cell E10 and insert the following formula.

=C5/E7

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Now, press Enter.

In the formula, we divided the number of boys who play football in Cell C5 by the Total
number of students in Cell E7 to get the probability of students who are boys and play
football.

After that, select Cell E11 and insert the following formula.

=E10/E9

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Finally, press Enter to get the value of your desired conditional probability.

Here, in the formula, we divided the value of Cell E10 by the value of Cell E9 to get the
probability of choosing a boy who also plays football.

Read More: How to Calculate Joint Probability in Excel

Conditional Probability for Independent Events in Excel


When two events are independent it means that they do not affect the probability of each
other. Suppose, A & B are two independent events.

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As a result,

P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)

Conditional Probability for Mutually Exclusive Events in Excel


Mutually Exclusive Events means events that cannot happen at the same time. For
example, raining and not raining on a day can be two mutually exclusive events. If the
probability of raining is P(R) and not raining is P(NR) then,

P(R|NR) = 0 and P(NR|R) = 0

Conclusion
So, in this article, we have shown you 2 ways to calculate conditional probability in Excel. I
hope you found this article interesting and helpful.

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