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Probability Distributions

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Probability Distributions

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gchandaliabe21
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138 Chapter 5 Discrete Distributions

TA B L E 5 . 1 In statistical experiments involving chance, outcomes occur randomly. As an example


All Possible Outcomes for the
of such an experiment, a battery manufacturer randomly selects three batteries from a large
Battery Experiment batch of batteries to be tested for quality. Each selected battery is to be rated as good or
defective. The batteries are numbered from 1 to 3, a defective battery is designated with a
G1 G2 G3 D, and a good battery is designated with a G. All possible outcomes are shown in Table 5.1.
D1 G2 G3 The expression D1 G2 D3 denotes one particular outcome in which the first and third bat-
G1 D2 G3 teries are defective and the second battery is good. In this chapter, we examine the
G1 G2 D3 probabilities of events occurring in experiments that produce discrete distributions. In
D1 D2 G3 particular, we will study the binomial distribution, the Poisson distribution, and the
D1 G2 D3 hypergeometric distribution.
G1 D2 D3
D1 D2 D3

5.1 DISCRETE VERSUS CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS

A random variable is a variable that contains the outcomes of a chance experiment. For
example, suppose an experiment is to measure the arrivals of automobiles at a turnpike
tollbooth during a 30-second period. The possible outcomes are: 0 cars, 1 car, 2 cars, . . . , n
cars. These numbers (0, 1, 2, . . . , n) are the values of a random variable. Suppose another
experiment is to measure the time between the completion of two tasks in a production
line. The values will range from 0 seconds to n seconds. These time measurements are the
values of another random variable. The two categories of random variables are (1) discrete
random variables and (2) continuous random variables.
A random variable is a discrete random variable if the set of all possible values is at most
a finite or a countably infinite number of possible values. In most statistical situations, discrete
random variables produce values that are nonnegative whole numbers. For example, if six
people are randomly selected from a population and how many of the six are left-handed is
to be determined, the random variable produced is discrete. The only possible numbers of
left-handed people in the sample of six are 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. There cannot be 2.75 left-
handed people in a group of six people; obtaining nonwhole number values is impossible.
Other examples of experiments that yield discrete random variables include the following:
1. Randomly selecting 25 people who consume soft drinks and determining how
many people prefer diet soft drinks
2. Determining the number of defects in a batch of 50 items
3. Counting the number of people who arrive at a store during a five-minute period
4. Sampling 100 registered voters and determining how many voted for the
president in the last election
The battery experiment described at the beginning of the chapter produces a distribu-
tion that has discrete outcomes. Any one trial of the experiment will contain 0, 1, 2, or 3
defective batteries. It is not possible to get 1.58 defective batteries. It could be said that
discrete random variables are usually generated from experiments in which things are
“counted” not “measured.”
Continuous random variables take on values at every point over a given interval. Thus
continuous random variables have no gaps or unassumed values. It could be said that con-
tinuous random variables are generated from experiments in which things are “measured”
not “counted.” For example, if a person is assembling a product component, the time it takes
to accomplish that feat could be any value within a reasonable range such as 3 minutes
36.4218 seconds or 5 minutes 17.5169 seconds. A list of measures for which continuous ran-
dom variables might be generated would include time, height, weight, and volume. Other
examples of experiments that yield continuous random variables include the following:
1. Sampling the volume of liquid nitrogen in a storage tank
2. Measuring the time between customer arrivals at a retail outlet
3. Measuring the lengths of newly designed automobiles
4. Measuring the weight of grain in a grain elevator at different points of time
5.2 Describing a Discrete Distribution 139

Once continuous data are measured and recorded, they become discrete data because
the data are rounded off to a discrete number. Thus in actual practice, virtually all business
data are discrete. However, for practical reasons, data analysis is facilitated greatly by using
continuous distributions on data that were continuous originally.
The outcomes for random variables and their associated probabilities can be organized
into distributions. The two types of distributions are discrete distributions, constructed from
discrete random variables, and continuous distributions, based on continuous random variables.
In this text, three discrete distributions are presented:
1. binomial distribution
2. Poisson distribution
3. hypergeometric distribution
All three of these distributions are presented in this chapter.
In addition, six continuous distributions are discussed later in this text:
1. uniform distribution
2. normal distribution
3. exponential distribution
4. t distribution
5. chi-square distribution
6. F distribution

Discrete

Continuous

5.2 DESCRIBING A DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION

How can we describe a discrete distribution? One way is to construct a graph of the distri-
bution and study the graph. The histogram is probably the most common graphical way to
depict a discrete distribution.
TA B L E 5 . 2
Observe the discrete distribution in Table 5.2. An executive is considering out-of-town
Discrete Distribution of business travel for a given Friday. She recognizes that at least one crisis could occur on the
Occurrence of Daily Crises day that she is gone and she is concerned about that possibility. Table 5.2 shows a discrete
Number of distribution that contains the number of crises that could occur during the day that she is
Crises Probability gone and the probability that each number will occur. For example, there is a .37 probabil-
ity that no crisis will occur, a .31 probability of one crisis, and so on. The histogram in
0 .37
Figure 5.1 depicts the distribution given in Table 5.2. Notice that the x-axis of the his-
1 .31
togram contains the possible outcomes of the experiment (number of crises that might
2 .18
occur) and that the y-axis contains the probabilities of these occurring.
3 .09
It is readily apparent from studying the graph of Figure 5.1 that the most likely num-
4 .04
ber of crises is 0 or 1. In addition, we can see that the distribution is discrete in that no
5 .01
probabilities are shown for values in between the whole-number crises.
140 Chapter 5 Discrete Distributions

FIGURE 5.1
Minitab Histogram of Discrete 0.4 0.37
Distribution of Crises Data 0.31
0.3

Probability
0.2 0.18

0.1 0.09
0.04
0.01
0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Number of Crises

Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation


of Discrete Distributions
What additional mechanisms can be used to describe discrete distributions besides depict-
ing them graphically? The measures of central tendency and measures of variability dis-
cussed in Chapter 3 for grouped data can be applied to discrete distributions to compute a
mean, a variance, and a standard deviation. Each of those three descriptive measures
(mean, variance, and standard deviation) is computed on grouped data by using the class
midpoint as the value to represent the data in the class interval. With discrete distributions,
using the class midpoint is not necessary because the discrete value of an outcome (0, 1, 2,
TA B L E 5 . 3
3, . . .) is used to represent itself. Thus, instead of using the value of the class midpoint (M)
Computing the Mean of the in computing these descriptive measures for grouped data, the discrete experiment’s
Crises Data outcomes (x) are used. In computing these descriptive measures on grouped data, the
x P(x) x # P (x) frequency of each class interval is used to weight the class midpoint. With discrete distri-
bution analysis, the probability of each occurrence is used as the weight.
0 .37 .00
1 .31 .31
2 .18 .36 Mean or Expected Value
3 .09 .27
The mean or expected value of a discrete distribution is the long-run average of occurrences.
4 .04 .16
We must realize that any one trial using a discrete random variable yields only one out-
5 .01 .05
come. However, if the process is repeated long enough, the average of the outcomes are
© [x # P(x)] = 1.15
most likely to approach a long-run average, expected value, or mean value. This mean, or
m = 1.15 crises
expected, value is computed as follows.

MEAN OR EXPECTED VALUE m = E (x) = ©[x # P (x)]


OF A DISCRETE
where
DISTRIBUTION
E(x) = long-run average
x = an outcome
P(x) = probability of that outcome

As an example, let’s compute the mean or expected value of the distribution given in
Table 5.2. See Table 5.3 for the resulting values. In the long run, the mean or expected num-
ber of crises on a given Friday for this executive is 1.15 crises. Of course, the executive will
never have 1.15 crises.

Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Distribution


The variance and standard deviation of a discrete distribution are solved for by using the out-
comes (x) and probabilities of outcomes [P(x)] in a manner similar to that of computing a
5.2 Describing a Discrete Distribution 141

TA B L E 5 . 4 x P (x) (x ⴚ M )2 (x ⴚ M )2 # P (x)
Calculation of Variance and
0 .37 (0 - 1.15)2 = 1.32 (1.32)(.37) = .49
Standard Deviation on Crises
1 .31 (1 - 1.15)2 = .02 (0.02)(.31) = .01
Data
2 .18 (2 - 1.15)2 = .72 (0.72)(.18) = .13
3 .09 (3 - 1.15)2 = 3.42 (3.42)(.09) = .31
4 .04 (4 - 1.15)2 = 8.12 (8.12)(.04) = .32
5 .01 (5 - 1.15)2 = 14.82 (14.82)(.01) = .15
©[(x - m)2 # P (x)] = 1.41
The variance of s2 = ©[(x - m)2 # P (x)] = 1.41
The standard deviation is s = 21.41 = 1.19 crises.

mean. In addition, the computations for variance and standard deviations use the mean of
the discrete distribution. The formula for computing the variance follows.

VARIANCE OF A DISCRETE s2 = ©[(x - m)2 # P (x)]


DISTRIBUTION
where
x = an outcome
P(x) = probability of a given outcome
m = mean

The standard deviation is then computed by taking the square root of the variance.

STANDARD DEVIATION OF A s = 2©[(x - m)2 # P (x)]


DISCRETE DISTRIBUTION

The variance and standard deviation of the crisis data in Table 5.2 are calculated and
shown in Table 5.4. The mean of the crisis data is 1.15 crises. The standard deviation is 1.19
crises, and the variance is 1.41.

D E M O N S T R AT I O N
PROBLEM 5.1
During one holiday season, the Texas lottery played a game called the Stocking
Stuffer. With this game, total instant winnings of $34.8 million were available in
70 million $1 tickets, with ticket prizes ranging from $1 to $1,000. Shown here are the
various prizes and the probability of winning each prize. Use these data to compute
the expected value of the game, the variance of the game, and the standard deviation
of the game.

Prize (x) Probability P (x)

$1,000 .00002
100 .00063
20 .00400
10 .00601
4 .02403
2 .08877
1 .10479
0 .77175
184 Chapter 6 Continuous Distributions

Excel does not have the capability of directly computing probabilities for the uniform
distribution.

6.1 PROBLEMS 6.1 Values are uniformly distributed between 200 and 240.
a. What is the value of f (x) for this distribution?
b. Determine the mean and standard deviation of this distribution.
c. Probability of (x 7 230) = ?
d. Probability of (205 … x … 220) = ?
e. Probability of (x … 225) = ?
6.2 x is uniformly distributed over a range of values from 8 to 21.
a. What is the value of f (x) for this distribution?
b. Determine the mean and standard deviation of this distribution.
c. Probability of (10 … x 6 17) = ?
d. Probability of (x 6 22) = ?
e. Probability of (x Ú 7) = ?
6.3 The retail price of a medium-sized box of a well-known brand of cornflakes ranges
from $2.80 to $3.14. Assume these prices are uniformly distributed. What are the
average price and standard deviation of prices in this distribution? If a price is
randomly selected from this list, what is the probability that it will be between $3.00
and $3.10?
6.4 The average fill volume of a regular can of soft drink is 12 ounces. Suppose the fill
volume of these cans ranges from 11.97 to 12.03 ounces and is uniformly distributed.
What is the height of this distribution? What is the probability that a randomly
selected can contains more than 12.01 ounces of fluid? What is the probability that
the fill volume is between 11.98 and 12.01 ounces?
6.5 Suppose the average U.S. household spends $2,100 a year on all types of insurance.
Suppose the figures are uniformly distributed between the values of $400 and $3,800.
What are the standard deviation and the height of this distribution? What proportion
of households spends more than $3,000 a year on insurance? More than $4,000?
Between $700 and $1,500?

6.2 NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Probably the most widely known and used of all distributions is the normal distribution.
It fits many human characteristics, such as height, weight, length, speed, IQ, scholastic
achievement, and years of life expectancy, among others. Like their human counterparts,
living things in nature, such as trees, animals, insects, and others, have many characteristics
that are normally distributed.
Many variables in business and industry also are normally distributed.
Some examples of variables that could produce normally distributed measure-
ments include the annual cost of household insurance, the cost per square foot
of renting warehouse space, and managers’ satisfaction with support from
ownership on a five-point scale. In addition, most items produced or filled by machines
are normally distributed.
Because of its many applications, the normal distribution is an extremely important
distribution. Besides the many variables mentioned that are normally distributed, the nor-
mal distribution and its associated probabilities are an integral part of statistical process
control (see Chapter 18). When large enough sample sizes are taken, many statistics are
normally distributed regardless of the shape of the underlying distribution from which
they are drawn (as discussed in Chapter 7). Figure 6.4 is the graphic representation of the
normal distribution: the normal curve.
6.2 Normal Distribution 185

FIGURE 6.4 History of the Normal Distribution


The Normal Curve Discovery of the normal curve of errors is generally credited to mathematician and
astronomer Karl Gauss (1777–1855), who recognized that the errors of repeated measure-
ment of objects are often normally distributed.* Thus the normal distribution is some-
times referred to as the Gaussian distribution or the normal curve of error. A modern-day
analogy of Gauss’s work might be the distribution of measurements of machine-produced
parts, which often yield a normal curve of error around a mean specification.
To a lesser extent, some credit has been given to Pierre-Simon de Laplace (1749–1827)
μ X
for discovering the normal distribution. However, many people now believe that Abraham
de Moivre (1667–1754), a French mathematician, first understood the normal distribution.
De Moivre determined that the binomial distribution approached the normal distribution
as a limit. De Moivre worked with remarkable accuracy. His published table values for the
normal curve are only a few ten-thousandths off the values of currently published tables.†
The normal distribution exhibits the following characteristics.
■ It is a continuous distribution.
■ It is a symmetrical distribution about its mean.
■ It is asymptotic to the horizontal axis.
■ It is unimodal.
■ It is a family of curves.
■ Area under the curve is 1.
The normal distribution is symmetrical. Each half of the distribution is a mirror image
of the other half. Many normal distribution tables contain probability values for only one
side of the distribution because probability values for the other side of the distribution are
identical because of symmetry.
In theory, the normal distribution is asymptotic to the horizontal axis. That is, it does
not touch the x-axis, and it goes forever in each direction. The reality is that most applica-
tions of the normal curve are experiments that have finite limits of potential outcomes. For
example, even though GMAT scores are analyzed by the normal distribution, the range of
scores on each part of the GMAT is from 200 to 800.
The normal curve sometimes is referred to as the bell-shaped curve. It is unimodal in
that values mound up in only one portion of the graph—the center of the curve. The normal
distribution actually is a family of curves. Every unique value of the mean and every unique
value of the standard deviation result in a different normal curve. In addition, the total area
under any normal distribution is 1. The area under the curve yields the probabilities, so the
total of all probabilities for a normal distribution is 1. Because the distribution is symmet-
ric, the area of the distribution on each side of the mean is 0.5.

Probability Density Function of


the Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is described or characterized by two parameters: the mean, m, and
the standard deviation, s. The values of m and s produce a normal distribution. The den-
sity function of the normal distribution is
1 2
f (x) = e-1>2[(x - m)>s)]
s12p

where
m= mean of x
s= standard deviation of x
p= 3.14159 . . . , and
e= 2.71828. . . .

*John A. Ingram and Joseph G. Monks, Statistics for Business and Economics. San Diego: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich,
1989.

Roger E. Kirk, Statistical Issues: A Reader for the Behavioral Sciences. Monterey, CA: Brooks/Cole, 1972.
186 Chapter 6 Continuous Distributions

FIGURE 6.5
Normal Curves for Three
Different Combinations of
σ =5 σ =5
Means and Standard
Deviations

σ = 10

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
x Values

Using Integral Calculus to determine areas under the normal curve from this function is
difficult and time-consuming, therefore, virtually all researchers use table values to analyze
normal distribution problems rather than this formula.

Standardized Normal Distribution


Every unique pair of m and s values defines a different normal distribution. Figure 6.5 shows
the Minitab graphs of normal distributions for the following three pairs of parameters.
1. m = 50 and s = 5
2. m = 80 and s = 5
3. m = 50 and s = 10
Note that every change in a parameter (m or s) determines a different normal distri-
bution. This characteristic of the normal curve (a family of curves) could make analysis by
the normal distribution tedious because volumes of normal curve tables—one for each
different combination of m and s—would be required. Fortunately, a mechanism was
developed by which all normal distributions can be converted into a single distribution: the
z distribution. This process yields the standardized normal distribution (or curve). The
conversion formula for any x value of a given normal distribution follows.

z FORMULA x - m
z = , s Z 0
s

A z score is the number of standard deviations that a value, x, is above or below the mean.
If the value of x is less than the mean, the z score is negative; if the value of x is more than
the mean, the z score is positive; and if the value of x equals the mean, the associated z score
is zero. This formula allows conversion of the distance of any x value from its mean into
standard deviation units. A standard z score table can be used to find probabilities for any
normal curve problem that has been converted to z scores. The z distribution is a normal
distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Any value of x at the mean of a
normal curve is zero standard deviations from the mean. Any value of x that is one standard
deviation above the mean has a z value of 1. The empirical rule, introduced in Chapter 3, is
based on the normal distribution in which about 68% of all values are within one standard
deviation of the mean regardless of the values of m and s. In a z distribution, about 68% of
the z values are between z = -1 and z = +1.
The z distribution probability values are given in Table A.5. Because it is so frequently
used, the z distribution is also printed inside the cover of this text. For discussion purposes,
a list of z distribution values is presented in Table 6.2.
Table A.5 gives the total area under the z curve between 0 and any point on the posi-
tive z-axis. Since the curve is symmetric, the area under the curve between z and 0 is the
same whether z is positive or negative (the sign on the z value designates whether the
z score is above or below the mean). The table areas or probabilities are always positive.
6.2 Normal Distribution 187

TA B L E 6 . 2
z Distribution

0 z

SECOND DECIMAL PLACE IN z


z 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 .0000 .0040 .0080 .0120 .0160 .0199 .0239 .0279 .0319 .0359
0.1 .0398 .0438 .0478 .0517 .0557 .0596 .0636 .0675 .0714 .0753
0.2 .0793 .0832 .0871 .0910 .0948 .0987 .1026 .1064 .1103 .1141
0.3 .1179 .1217 .1255 .1293 .1331 .1368 .1406 .1443 .1480 .1517
0.4 .1554 .1591 .1628 .1664 .1700 .1736 .1772 .1808 .1844 .1879
0.5 .1915 .1950 .1985 .2019 .2054 .2088 .2123 .2157 .2190 .2224
0.6 .2257 .2291 .2324 .2357 .2389 .2422 .2454 .2486 .2517 .2549
0.7 .2580 .2611 .2642 .2673 .2704 .2734 .2764 .2794 .2823 .2852
0.8 .2881 .2910 .2939 .2967 .2995 .3023 .3051 .3078 .3106 .3133
0.9 .3159 .3186 .3212 .3238 .3264 .3289 .3315 .3340 .3365 .3389
1.0 .3413 .3438 .3461 .3485 .3508 .3531 .3554 .3577 .3599 .3621
1.1 .3643 .3665 .3686 .3708 .3729 .3749 .3770 .3790 .3810 .3830
1.2 .3849 .3869 .3888 .3907 .3925 .3944 .3962 .3980 .3997 .4015
1.3 .4032 .4049 .4066 .4082 .4099 .4115 .4131 .4147 .4162 .4177
1.4 .4192 .4207 .4222 .4236 .4251 .4265 .4279 .4292 .4306 .4319
1.5 .4332 .4345 .4357 .4370 .4382 .4394 .4406 .4418 .4429 .4441
1.6 .4452 .4463 .4474 .4484 .4495 .4505 .4515 .4525 .4535 .4545
1.7 .4554 .4564 .4573 .4582 .4591 .4599 .4608 .4616 .4625 .4633
1.8 .4641 .4649 .4656 .4664 .4671 .4678 .4686 .4693 .4699 .4706
1.9 .4713 .4719 .4726 .4732 .4738 .4744 .4750 .4756 .4761 .4767
2.0 .4772 .4778 .4783 .4788 .4793 .4798 .4803 .4808 .4812 .4817
2.1 .4821 .4826 .4830 .4834 .4838 .4842 .4846 .4850 .4854 .4857
2.2 .4861 .4864 .4868 .4871 .4875 .4878 .4881 .4884 .4887 .4890
2.3 .4893 .4896 .4898 .4901 .4904 .4906 .4909 .4911 .4913 .4916
2.4 .4918 .4920 .4922 .4925 .4927 .4929 .4931 .4932 .4934 .4936
2.5 .4938 .4940 .4941 .4943 .4945 .4946 .4948 .4949 .4951 .4952
2.6 .4953 .4955 .4956 .4957 .4959 .4960 .4961 .4962 .4963 .4964
2.7 .4965 .4966 .4967 .4968 .4969 .4970 .4971 .4972 .4973 .4974
2.8 .4974 .4975 .4976 .4977 .4977 .4978 .4979 .4979 .4980 .4981
2.9 .4981 .4982 .4982 .4983 .4984 .4984 .4985 .4985 .4986 .4986
3.0 .4987 .4987 .4987 .4988 .4988 .4989 .4989 .4989 .4990 .4990
3.1 .4990 .4991 .4991 .4991 .4992 .4992 .4992 .4992 .4993 .4993
3.2 .4993 .4993 .4994 .4994 .4994 .4994 .4994 .4995 .4995 .4995
3.3 .4995 .4995 .4995 .4996 .4996 .4996 .4996 .4996 .4996 .4997
3.4 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4997 .4998
3.5 .4998
4.0 .49997
FIGURE 6.6 4.5 .499997
Graphical Depiction of the 5.0 .4999997
Area Between a Score of 600 6.0 .499999999
and a Mean on a GMAT

Solving Normal Curve Problems


The mean and standard deviation of a normal distribution and the z formula and table enable
a researcher to determine the probabilities for intervals of any particular values of a normal
curve. One example is the many possible probability values of GMAT scores examined next.
μ = 494 x = 600
σ = 100
The Graduate Management Aptitude Test (GMAT), produced by the Educational
Testing Service in Princeton, New Jersey, is widely used by graduate schools of business in
188 Chapter 6 Continuous Distributions

FIGURE 6.7
Graphical Solutions to the
GMAT Problem

.3554 .3554

μ = 494 x = 600 z=0 z = 1.06


σ = 100
(a) (b)

the United States as an entrance requirement. Assuming that the scores are normally dis-
tributed, probabilities of achieving scores over various ranges of the GMAT can be deter-
mined. In a recent year, the mean GMAT score was 494 and the standard deviation was
about 100. What is the probability that a randomly selected score from this administration
of the GMAT is between 600 and the mean? That is,
P (494 … x … 600 ƒ m = 494 and s = 100) = ?
Figure 6.6 is a graphical representation of this problem.
The z formula yields the number of standard deviations that the x value, 600, is away
from the mean.
x - m 600 - 494 106
z = = = = 1.06
s 100 100
The z value of 1.06 reveals that the GMAT score of 600 is 1.06 standard deviations more
than the mean. The z distribution values in Table 6.2 give the probability of a value being
between this value of x and the mean. The whole-number and tenths-place portion of the
z score appear in the first column of Table 6.2 (the 1.0 portion of this z score). Across the top
of the table are the values of the hundredths-place portion of the z score. For this z score,
the hundredths-place value is 6. The probability value in Table 6.2 for z = 1.06 is .3554. The
shaded portion of the curve at the top of the table indicates that the probability value given
always is the probability or area between an x value and the mean. In this particular exam-
ple, that is the desired area. Thus the answer is that .3554 of the scores on the GMAT are
between a score of 600 and the mean of 494. Figure 6.7(a) depicts graphically the solution
in terms of x values. Figure 6.7(b) shows the solution in terms of z values.

D E M O N S T R AT I O N
PROBLEM 6.3
What is the probability of obtaining a score greater than 700 on a GMAT test that has
a mean of 494 and a standard deviation of 100? Assume GMAT scores are normally
distributed.

P (x 7 700 ƒ m = 494 and s = 100) = ?

Solution
Examine the following diagram.

x > 700

μ = 494 x = 700
σ = 100
6.2 Normal Distribution 189

This problem calls for determining the area of the upper tail of the distribution. The
z score for this problem is
x - m 700 - 494 206
z = = = = 2.06
s 100 100
Table 6.2 gives a probability of .4803 for this z score. This value is the probability
of randomly drawing a GMAT with a score between the mean and 700. Finding the
probability of getting a score greater than 700, which is the tail of the distribution,
requires subtracting the probability value of .4803 from .5000, because each half of the
distribution contains .5000 of the area. The result is .0197. Note that an attempt to
determine the area of x Ú 700 instead of x 7 700 would have made no difference
because, in continuous distributions, the area under an exact number such as x = 700
is zero. A line segment has no width and hence no area.

.5000 (probability of x greater than the mean)


-.4803 (probability of x between 700 and the mean)
.0197 (probability of x greater than 700)

The solution is depicted graphically in (a) for x values and in (b) for z values.

.5000 .5000

.4803 .0197 .4803 .0197

μ = 494 x = 700 z=0 z = 2.06


σ = 100
(a) (b)

D E M O N S T R AT I O N
PROBLEM 6.4
For the same GMAT examination, what is the probability of randomly drawing a
score that is 550 or less?

P (x … 550 ƒ m = 494 and s = 100) = ?

Solution
A sketch of this problem is shown here. Determine the area under the curve for all
values less than or equal to 550.

μ = 494 x = 550
σ = 100

The z value for the area between 550 and the mean is equal to:
x - m 550 - 494 56
z = = = = 0.56
s 100 100

The area under the curve for z = 0.56 is .2123, which is the probability of getting
a score between 550 and the mean. However, obtaining the probability for all values
less than or equal to 550 also requires including the values less than the mean.

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