Previous year Questions

Unit – 6 (Time Based Data)

Q. The condition for the time reversal test to hold good with usaual notification is :

𝒑𝒄𝒃
(a) Pbc *pcb =1 (b) Pbc +pcb=0 (c) Pbc +pcb =1 (d) 𝒑𝒃𝒄
=1 (2022, deleted )

Solution:the condition for the time reversal test is p01 *p10 =1 where p01 represents the price index for
current year with reference to base year and p10 and p10 can be written as pbc and pcb respectively . :.
Pbc*pcb =1
Hence , the correct answer is option (a ) .
Q. The index number of the following data:
Refractive index 181 116 110 157
Weight 4 12 3 7
(a) 118.74 (b) 136.34 (c) 142.04 (d) 146.14 (2022, deleted )
Solution:
Relative index (P) Weight (V) PV
181 4 724
116 12 1392
110 3 330
157 7 1099
∑𝑉 = 26 ∑𝑃𝑉 = 3545
∑ 𝑝𝑣 3545
P01 = Σ𝑉
= 26
= 136.34
Hence , the correct answer is option ( b) .
Q. The following table shows the annual rainfall (in mm) recorded for Cherrapunji , Meghalaya:
Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Rainfall 1.2 1.9 2 1.4 2.1 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.3
(in mm)
Determine the trend of rainfall by 3-year moving average. (2022)
SOLUTION
Rainfall Three-yearly Three yearly
Year (in mm) Moving total Moving Average

2001 1.2

2002 1.9 5.1 1.7

2003 2 5.3 1.76

2004 1.4 5.5 1.83

2005 2.1 4.8 1.6

2006 1.3 5.2 1.73

 2007 1.8 4.2 1.4

2008 1.1 4.2 1.4

2009 1.3

The points are joined by line segments to obtain the graph to understand the trend.

Q. Fit a straight line trend by the method a least squares and find the trend value for the year 2008 for
the following data : (2022)
Production
YEAR (in lakh tonnes)

2001 30

2002 35

2003 36

2004 32

2005 37

2006 40

2007 36

SOLUTION:
Taking middle year value as A i.e., A =2004
Year(xi) Production (y) X = xi-A = xi -2004 X2 xy
2001 30 -3 9 -90
2002 35 -2 4 -70
2003 36 -1 1 -36
2004 32 0 0 0
2005 37 1 1 37
2006 40 2 4 80
2007 36 3 9 108
N=7 ΣY = 246 ΣX = 0 ΣX 2 =28 ΣXY= 29
∑𝑌 246 ∑ 𝑋𝑌 29
𝑎= 𝑛
= 7
= 35.14 , 𝑏 = ∑ 𝑋 2 = 28 = 1.036
Therefore, the required equation of the straight-line trend is given by Y = 35.14 + 1.036X.
Now, the trend value for the year 2008 is given by
Y = 35.14 + 1.036(2008 – 2004) = 39.284
Hence, the trend value for the year 2008 is 39.284 lakh tonnes .
Q. For the following data calculate the trend values , using 3 year moving average .(2022 comptt)
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Production 412 438 446 454 470 483 490
SOLUTION:
Rainfall Three-yearly Three yearly
Year (in mm) Moving total Moving Average

2011 412

2012 438 1296 432

2013 446 1338 446

2014 454 1370 456.67

2015 470 1407 469

2016 483 1443 481

2017 490

Q. Fit a straight line trend by method of least squares to the following data
and find the trend values : (2022 comptt , 2023)
Year 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2019
Sales (in lakh) 65 68 70 72 75 67 73
Solution :
Year Sales (in lakh) (Y) X X2 XY Yc = a+bx
2010 65 -4 16 -260 66.90
2012 68 -2 4 -136 68.40
2013 70 -1 1 -70 69.15
2014 72 0 0 0 69.90
2015 75 1 1 75 70.65
2016 67 2 4 134 71.40
2019 73 5 25 365 73.65
N=7 ΣY = 490 ΣX =1 ΣX 2 =51 ΣXY= 108
Here ΣX ≠ 0 so, ΣY = na + b Σx and ΣXY = a ΣX + b ΣX 2
Here n = 7 , ΣY = 490 , ΣX =1, ΣX 2 =51 , ΣXY= 108
Therefore 490 = 7a + b ……….(I) and 108 = a + 51b ………..(ii) ,
We get a = 69.9 and b = 0.75
Trend equation is Yc = 69.9 + 0.75x
Q. The straight line trend is represented by the equation :
(a) yc = a + bx (b) yc = a -bx (c) yc= na + b ∑ 𝒙 (d) yc = na -b∑ 𝒙 (2023)
Solution : correct option is (a)
Q. For the values 15, 23, 28, 36, 41, 46, the three yearly moving averages are (2023-comptt)
a. 24, 29, 35, 41 b. 22, 28, 35, 41 c. 22, 29, 35, 41 d. 24, 28, 35, 41
𝟏𝟓+𝟐𝟑+𝟐𝟖 𝟐𝟑+𝟐𝟖+𝟑𝟔 𝟐𝟖+𝟑𝟔+𝟒𝟏 𝟑𝟔+𝟒𝟏+𝟒𝟔
Solution : 𝟑
= 𝟐𝟐, 𝟑
= 𝟐𝟗, 𝟑
= 𝟑𝟓 , 𝟑
= 𝟒𝟏
Correct option is c
Q. case study : The following data shows the percentage of rural, urban and suburban Indians who
have a high speed internet connection at home:
Year Rural Urban Suburban
2016 3 9 9
2017 6 18 17
2018 9 21 23
2019 16 29 29
2020 24 38 40
Based on the above data, answer the following questions:
(i) Derive straight line trend by the method of least squares for the rural Indians.
OR
Find a straight line trend by the method of least squares for the urban Indians.
(ii) What is forecast for the year 2021 for urban group, using the trend equation?
(ii) What is forecast for the year 2021 for rural group, using the trend equation? (2023-comptt)
Solution :
Year x X2 Rural (y1) Xy1 Urban(y2) Xy2
2016 -2 4 3 -6 9 -18
2017 -1 1 6 -6 18 -18
2018 0 0 9 0 21 0
2019 1 1 16 16 29 29
2020 2 4 24 48 38 76
Total 0 10 58 52 115 69
N = 5 , origin year = 2018
∑𝑌 58 ∑ 𝑋𝑌 52
(i) 𝑎 = 𝑛
= 5
= 11.6 , 𝑏 = ∑ 𝑋2
= 10 = 5.2
Therefore, the required equation of the straight-line trend is given by Y = 11.6 + 5.2X.
Or
∑𝑌 115 ∑ 𝑋𝑌 69
𝑎= 𝑛
= 5
= 23 , 𝑏 = ∑ 𝑋 2 = 10 = 6.9
Therefore, the required equation of the straight-line trend is given by Y = 23 + 6.9X.
(ii) Now, the trend value for 2021 for urban group is given by Y = 23 + 6.9(2021 – 2018) = 43.7
(iii) Now, the trend value for 2021 for rura; group is given by Y = 11.6 + 5.2 (2021 – 2018) = 27.2
Q. For the given values 23, 32, 40, 47, 58, 33, 42; the 5-yearly moving averages are : (2024)
(a) 38, 40, 42 (b) 40, 42, 44 (c) 40, 42, 46 (d) 42, 44, 46
23 + 32 + 40 + 47+ 58 200 32 + 40 + 47+ 58+33 210
Solution :(b) 5
= 5 = 40 , 5
= 5 = 42
40 + 47 + 58 + 33 + 42 220
= = 44
5 5
38. When observed over a long period of time, a time series data can predict trends that can forecast
increase or decrease or stagnation of a variable under consideration. Such analytical studies can
benefit a business for forecasting or prediction of future estimated sales or production. The table
below shows the sale of an item in a district during 1996 – 2001 :
Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
 Sales (in lakh 6.5 5.3 4.3 6.1 5.6 7.8
Rs)
Based on the above information, answer the following questions : (2024)
(i) Determine the equation of the straight-line trend.
(ii) (a) Tabulate the trend values of the years and also compute expected sales trend for the year 2002.
OR
(b) Fit a straight-line trend by the method of least squares for the following data :
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Profit ( Rs 000) 114 130 126 144 138 156 164
Solution:
(I)
Year Sales (in lakh) (Y) 𝑥𝑖 −𝐴 X2 XY
X=
0.5
1996 6.5 -5 25 -32.5
1997 5.3 -3 9 -15.9
1998 4.3 -1 1 -4.3
1999 6.1 1 1 6.1
2000 5.6 3 9 16.8
2001 7.8 5 25 39
n=6 ΣY = 35.6 ΣX = 0 ΣX 2 =70 ΣXY= 108
1998+1999
Origin year (A) = 2
= 1998.5
ΣY 35.6 ΣXY 9.2
𝑎= = = 5.9 , 𝑏 = 2 = = 0.13
n 6 ΣX 70
∴ Equation of straight-line trend is given by y = a+bx = 5.9 + 0.13x
(iI) (a) Trend Values
1996 ⇒ 5·9 + (– 5)  0·13 = 5·25 , 1997 ⇒ 5·9 + (– 3)  0·13 = 5·51
,1998 ⇒ 5·9 + (– 1)  0·13 = 5·77 ,1999 ⇒5·9 + (1)  0·13 = 6.03
,2000 ⇒ 5·9 + (3)  0·13 = 6.29 , 2001⇒ 5·9 + (5)  0·13 = 6.55
2002−1998.5
Expected sales trend for 2002 =5.9+0.13( 0.5
) =₹ 6.81 lakhs
OR (ii) (b)
Year Profit (Y) X = 𝑥𝑖 − 𝐴 X2 XY
2004 114 -3 9 -342
2005 130 -2 4 -260
2006 126 -1 1 -126
2007 144 0 0 0
2008 138 1 1 138
2009 156 2 4 312
2010 164 3 9 492
n=7 ΣY = 972 ΣX = 0 ΣX 2 =28 ΣXY= 214
Origin year (A) = 2007
ΣY 972 ΣXY 214
𝑎 = n = 7 = 138.86 , 𝑏 = ΣX2 = 28 = 7.64
So, required equation of straight- line trend is y = a + bx = 138.86 + 7.64x
(iii)(a) total interest paid =n*EMI – P =240 x 24167.82- 30,00,000 = 58,00,276.80 - 30,00,000 = Rs
28,00,276.80
Or
(b) Total amount paid my Mr Aggarwal = Rs 58,00,276.80
Q. If for a data n = 6 𝚺𝒚 = 𝟖𝟒 , 𝚺𝒙𝒚 = 𝟏𝟎𝟖 , 𝚺𝒙𝟐 = 𝟕𝟎 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝚺𝒙 = 𝟎 then the equation of the straight
line trend is : (2024-comptt)
(a) yc = 14 + 1.54x (b) yc = 1.54 + 14x (c) yc = 14 + 3.08x (d) yc = 3.08 + 14x
 Σ𝑦 84 Σ𝑥𝑦 108
Solution : (a) 𝑎 = 𝑛 = 6 = 14 , 𝑏 = Σ𝑥2 = 70 = 1.54 ∴ yc = 14 + 1.54x
Q. find the trend value by taking 5 yearly moving average for the following data : (2024-comptt)
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual production 16 14 20 18 22 17 19 21 20
(Million tons)
solution :
Year Annual production 5 year moving total 5 Year moving Average
(Million tons)
2012 16
2013 14
2014 20 90 18
2015 18 91 18.2
2016 22 96 19.2
2017 17 97 19.4
2018 19 99 19.8
2019 21
2020 20

Q. find the trend value by taking 5 yearly moving average for the following data : (2024-comptt)
Year 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Annual production 16 14 20 18 22 17 19 21 20
(Million tons)
solution :
Year Annual production 5 year moving total 5 Year moving Average
(Million tons)
2012 16
2013 14
2014 20 90 18
2015 18 91 18.2
2016 22 96 19.2
2017 17 97 19.4
2018 19 99 19.8
2019 21
2020 20