Project II CH 3
Project II CH 3
Project Analysis II
Chapter Three
Economic Analysis of Projects
It takes into account not only the direct financial costs and benefits of
a project, but also its indirect effects on other industries, employment,
and overall economic growth.
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The main objective of project economic analysis is:
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Cont’d…
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3.1.1. Questions that Economic Analysis Should
Answer
This section provides a general overview of the questions that good
economic analysis should answer, and can serve as a checklist.
1. What is the objective of the project?
A clear definition is essential for reducing the number of alternatives
to consider, for selecting tools of analysis & performance indicators.
2. What will happen if the project proceeds or not?
Differences between the situation with and without the project are the
basis for assessing the incremental costs and benefits of the project.
3. Is the project the best alternative?
Comparison of alternatives helps planners choose the best way to
accomplish their objectives.
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4. Does the project have separable components?
If the project contains separable components, then each and every
component must be justified as if it were an independent project.
5. Who are winners and losers?
Identifying those who will gain, those who will pay, and those who
will lose gives the analyst insight into the incentives.
6. What is the project's fiscal impact?
Given the importance of fiscal policy for overall macroeconomic
stability, the fiscal impact of the project should always be analyzed.
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Cont’d…
Here are some instructions for avoiding the sunk cost fallacy:
• Identify sunk costs: The first step to avoiding the sunk cost fallacy is
to identify sunk costs. Once you have identified sunk costs, you can
ignore them when making decisions about the future of a project.
• A project that builds a new highway may create noise pollution for
people who live near the highway.
• The government may need to pay these people compensation for the
noise pollution.
• A project that builds a new school may increase the value of homes in
the area. The government may need to collect a tax on the increased
property values to pay for the school.
• By understanding the potential externalities and transfer payments
associated with a project, you can make better decisions about
whether to proceed with the project.
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3.3. Determining Economic Values
The essential elements and procedures (process) of economic analysis
In investigating the impact of projects on the national economy it is
necessary to consider the essential elements of economic analysis and
undertake a number of procedures. The procedures include:
• Identify and eliminate transfer payments
• Extend the boundary of the project to include all linkages and
externalities
• Identify and value the effects of the project on the use and production
of traded and non traded goods.
• Identify and value the effects of the project on employment of labour.
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Cont’d…
Determining the economic values/costs of a project is a complex
process that involves a number of factors.
Some of the key factors to consider include:
• The costs of the project: This includes the direct costs of materials,
labor and equipment, as well as indirect costs like overhead & interest.
• The benefits of the project: This includes both tangible benefits,
such as increased revenue or reduced costs, and intangible benefits,
such as improved quality of life or environmental protection.
• The timing of the costs and benefits: The costs and benefits of a
project may not occur evenly over time.
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• It is important to consider the timing of these costs and benefits when
making a decision about whether to proceed with the project.
• The risk of the project: There is always some risk associated with
any project.
• This risk can be due to factors such as changes in the market,
unexpected costs, or delays.
• It is important to consider the risk of the project when making a
decision about whether to proceed.
• Once you have considered all of these factors, you can use a variety of
methods to determine the economic value of the project.
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Some of the most common methods in economic analysis include:
• Cost-benefit analysis: This method compares the costs of the project
to the benefits of the project. If the benefits of the project outweigh
the costs, then the project is considered to be economically feasible.
• Net present value (NPV): This method calculates the present value
of all of the future cash flows associated with the project. If the NPV
is positive, then the project is considered to be economically feasible.
• Internal rate of return (IRR): This method calculates the rate of
return on the project. If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, then
the project is considered to be economically feasible.
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The best method to use for determining the economic value of a
project will depend on the specific circumstances of the project.
However, all of the methods mentioned above can be used to provide
a quantitative assessment of the economic value of a project.
It is also important to consider social and environmental factors when
determining the value of a project.
These factors can be difficult to quantify, but they can have a
significant impact on the overall value of the project.
By considering all of these factors, you can make an informed
decision about whether to proceed with a project.
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3.3.1. Adjustment for Transfer Payments
Some payments in FA do not represent economic costs, but merely a
transfer of the control over resources from one group to another.
The reason why financial and economic NPV and IRR might differ
emanates from treatment of transfer payments (taxes, subsidies etc).
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Cont’d…
For example, if the government gives a tax break to a company that
creates jobs, you would adjust the costs of the project to reflect the
lost tax revenue.
You would also adjust the benefits of the project to reflect the
increased jobs created.
By adjusting for transfer payments, you can make sure that the costs
and benefits of a project are accurately reflected.
This will help you make better decisions about whether to proceed
with the project.
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Prices used in valuation of input & output
Market prices, which form the basis for computing monetary costs
and benefits reflect social values only under perfect competition.
Using different prices will give different economic & financial NPV,
IRR, and BCR while inputs & outputs are identical in physical terms.
Shadow prices are used to reflect the true economic value of inputs
and outputs, taking into account market distortions and other factors
that may affect the market price.
Costs and benefits that occur in the future are discounted to reflect the
fact that they are worth less today than they will be in the future.
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Cont’d…
The foreign exchange premium is the difference between the market
exchange rate and the economic exchange rate.
The economic exchange rate is the exchange rate that would prevail if
there were no taxes, subsidies, or other distortions in the market.
The premium on non-tradable outlays is the additional cost of
producing goods and services that are not traded internationally.
They are used to calculate the economic value of a project by
adjusting the market price of goods and services to account for factors
that would not be reflected in the market price.
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Cont’d…
This allows for a more accurate assessment of the project's potential
benefits and costs.
Here are some examples of how national parameters and standard
conversion factors can be used in project management:
A project manager may use national parameters to determine the cost
of capital for a project.
A project manager may use standard conversion factors to adjust the
market price of goods and services to account for differences in the
cost of living between countries.
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Cont’d…
A project manager may use national parameters and standard
conversion factors to calculate the economic value of a project.
By understanding national parameters and standard conversion
factors, project managers can make more informed decisions about
how to manage their projects.
Here are some of the benefits of using national parameters and
standard conversion factors in a project:
• They can help to ensure that the project is priced competitively.
• They can help to identify potential cost savings.
• They can help to reduce the risk of unexpected costs.
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3.4. Social Cost-Benefit Analysis
When under taking project E & F appraisal it is assumed that income
distribution issues are beyond the concern of the project analyst.
When one project is chosen rather than another the choice has
consequences for employment, output, consumption, savings, income
distribution and other things of relevance to national objectives.
But an extra dollar given to a poor person will increase the person's
welfare by much more than would a dollar given to a rich person.
I. The price offered in the market is not a good guide to social welfare
for it includes the influence of income distribution on prices offered.
II. A project may have influences (externalities) are relevant for social
choice and provide a sufficient argument for rejecting commercial
profitability as a guide to public policy.
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3.5. Cost Effectiveness
Cost-effectiveness in a project is the measure of how well a project
achieves its goals while minimizing costs.
It is a way of comparing different projects to see which one is the
most efficient use of resources.
There are a number of ways to measure cost-effectiveness. One
common method is to calculate the cost per unit of output.
The most cost-effective project is the one that has the lowest cost per
unit of output or the highest benefit-cost ratio.
Project managers can improve the cost-effectiveness of their projects
by carefully planning and managing resources.
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Cont’d…
They can also use cost-effectiveness analysis to compare different
options and choose the one that is most likely to be successful.
Here are some of the benefits of cost-effectiveness in a project:
• It help to ensure projects are completed on time & within budget.
• It can help to identify and mitigate risks.
• It can help to improve the quality of project outputs.
• It can help to increase the satisfaction of stakeholders.
By carefully planning and managing resources, project managers can
improve the chances of success and achieve their goals while
minimizing costs.
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3.5.1. Cost Effectiveness Measures
Cost-effectiveness measures are used to assess the efficiency of a
project in achieving its goals.
There are a number of different cost-effectiveness measures that can
be used, depending on the specific goals of the project which include:
• Cost per unit of output: This measure calculates the cost of
producing a single unit of output.
• For example, if a project costs $100,000 to complete and produces
1,000 units of output, the cost per unit would be $100.
• Benefit-cost ratio: This measure calculates the ratio of the benefits of
a project to its costs.
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Cont’d…
• For example, if a project produces benefits worth $200,000 and costs
$100,000, the benefit-cost ratio would be 2.
• Net present value (NPV): This measure calculates the present value
of all the future benefits and costs of a project. A positive NPV
indicates that the project is expected to be profitable.
• Internal rate of return (IRR): This measure calculates the rate of
return on a project's investment. A higher IRR indicates that the
project is expected to be more profitable.
The cost-effectiveness measure for a particular project will depend on
the specific goals of the project and the availability of data.
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5.5.2. Weighted Cost Effectiveness Measures
Weighted cost-effectiveness measures are a type of cost-effectiveness
analysis that takes into account the relative importance of different
outcomes. This is done by assigning weights to each outcome, based
on its importance.
The weighted cost-effectiveness ratio (WCR) is then calculated by
dividing the total benefits by the total costs, weighted by their
respective importance.
The WCR is a more comprehensive measure of cost-effectiveness
than simple cost-effectiveness measures, such as the cost per unit of
output or the benefit-cost ratio.
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Cont’d…
This is because it takes into account the relative importance of
different outcomes. A project that produces a small number of high-
value outcomes may be more cost-effective than a project that
produces a large number of low-value outcomes.
The WCR can help to identify the most cost-effective project, even
when different projects produce different types of outcomes.
The WCR can be calculated using the following formula:
WCR = (Benefit 1 * Weight 1) + (Benefit 2 * Weight 2) + ... +
(Benefit n * Weight n) / (Cost 1 * Weight 1) + (Cost 2 * Weight 2) +
... + (Cost n * Weight n)
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The weights can be assigned by experts, stakeholders, or decision-
makers.
The weights should reflect the relative importance of each outcome to
the project's goals.
The WCR can be used to compare different projects or to track the
progress of a single project over time.
It can also be used to justify the costs of a project to stakeholders.
Some of the benefits of using weighted cost-effectiveness measures:
• They can help to identify the most efficient way to achieve a
project's goals.
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Cont’d…
• They can help to compare different projects and choose the one
that is most likely to be successful.
• They can help to track the progress of a project and identify areas
where costs can be reduced.
• They can help to justify the costs of a project to stakeholders.
Overall, weighted cost-effectiveness measures are a valuable tool for
project managers.
By using these measures, project managers can improve the chances
of success and achieve their goals while minimizing costs.
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