PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Emmanuel Antwi
Department of Mathematical and Applied Sciences

02 August, 2024
([Sol Plaatje University)

August 2, 2024

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Understand how to

1 Understand how to

2 Objectives for Today

3 2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

4 Independent Events
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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Understand how to

Additive Rules

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Objectives for Today

Objectives for Today

Complementary events
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence
The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Additive Rules

Additive Rules
Theorem 2.7 and its three corollaries should help the reader gain
more insight into probability and its interpretation. Corollaries 2.1 and
2.2 suggest the very intuitive result dealing with the probability of
occurrence of at least one of a number of events, no two of which can
occur simultaneously. The probability that at least one occurs is the
sum of the probabilities of occurrence of the individual events. The
third corollary simply states that the highest value of a probability
(unity) is assigned to the entire sample space S .

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

Example 2.31:
If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green,
white, red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will
purchase a new automobile that comes in one of those colors?
Solution:
Let G , W , R , and B be the events that a buyer selects, respectively,
a green, white, red, or blue automobile. Since these four events are
mutually exclusive, the probability is
P(G ∪ W ∪ R ∪ B) = P(G ) + P(W ) + P(R) + P(B) =
0.09 + 0.15 + 0.21 + 0.23 = 0.68.
Often it is more difficult to calculate the probability that an event
occurs than it is to calculate the probability that the event does not
occur. Should this be the case for some event A, we simply nd P(A0 )
first and then, using Theorem 2.7, nd P(A) by subtraction.

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Theorem 2.9:
If A and P(A0 ) are complementary events, thens
P(A) + P(A0 ) = 1.
Example 2.32:
If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5, 6,
7, or 8 or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12,
0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that he will
service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?
Solution:
Let E be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced. Now,
P(E ) = 1 − P(E 0 ), where E 0 is the event that fewer than 5 cars are
serviced. Since
P(E 0 ) = 0.12 + 0.19 = 0.31 , it follows from Theorem 2.9 that
P(E ) = 1 − 0.31 = 0.69.

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence
One very important concept in probability theory is conditional
probability. In some applications, the practitioner is interested in the
probability structure under certain restrictions.
For instance, in epidemiology, rather than studying the chance that a
person from the general population has diabetes, it might be of more
interest to know this probability for a distinct group such as Asian
women in the age range of 35 to 50 or Hispanic men in the age range
of 40 to 60. This type of probability is called a conditional probability.
Conditional Probability: The probability of an event B occurring
when it is known that some event A has occurred is called a
conditional probability and is denoted by P(B|A). The symbol
P(B|A) is usually read “the probability that B occurs given that A
occurs” or simply “the probability of B, given A.”
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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Conditional Probability
Consider the event B of getting a perfect square when a die is tossed.
The die is constructed so that the even numbers are twice as likely to
occur as the odd numbers. Based on the sample space
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, with probabilities of 19 and 92 assigned,
respectively, to the odd and even numbers, the probability of B
occurring is 13 . Now suppose that it is known that the toss of the die
resulted in a number greater than 3.
We are now dealing with a reduced sample space A = {4, 5, 6}, which
is a subset of S. To find the probability that B occurs, relative to the
space A , we must first assign new probabilities to the elements of A
proportional to their original probabilities such that their sum is 1.
Assigning a probability of ω to the odd number in A and a probability
of 2ω to the two even numbers, we have 5ω = 1 , or ω = 15 . Relative
to the space A , we find that B contains the single element 4.

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2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Denoting this event by the symbol B|A , we write

B|A = {4} , and hence
P(B|A) = 25
This example illustrates that events may have dierent probabilities when
considered relative to dierent sample spaces.
We can also write 2
P(B|A) = P(A∩B) 2
P(A) = 5 = 5
9
9
where P(A/capB) and P(A) are found from the original sample space S .
In other words, a conditional probability relative to a subspace A of S may
be calculated directly from the probabilities assigned to the elements of
the original sample space S .

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Denition 2.10:
The conditional probability of B , given A , denoted by:
P(B|A) , is dened by
P(A ∩ B) = P(A∩B
P(A) , provided P(A) > 0 .
As an additional illustration, suppose that our sample space S is the
population of adults in a small town who have completed the requirements
for a college degree. We shall categorize them according to gender and
employment status. The data are given in Table 2.1.
Employed Unemployed Total
Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900
One of these individuals is to be selected at random for a tour throughout
the country to publicize the advantages of establishing new industries in
the town. We shall be concerned with the following events:

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

M: a man is chosen,
E: the one chosen is employed.
Using the reduced sample space E, we find that
P(M|E ) = 460600 = 30
23

Let n(A) denote the number of elements in any set A. Using this notation,
since each adult has an equal chance of being selected, we can write
∩M) n(E ∩M/n(S)) P(E ∩M)
P(M|E ) = n(E n(E ) = n(E )/n()S = P(E )
where P(E ∩ M) and P(E ) are found from the original sample space S .
To verify this result,
note that
600
P(E ) = 900 = 23 and P(E ∩ M) = 900 460 23
= 45
Hence,
P(M|E ) = 23/45
2/3 = 30
23

as before.

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Example 2.34:
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is
P(D) = 0.83 ; the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82 ; and
the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩ A) = 0.78 .
Find the probability that a plane:
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time, and
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.
Solution:
Using Denition 2.10, we have the following.
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time, given that it departed on
time, is
P(A|D) = P(D∩A) 0.78
P(D) = 0.83 = 0.94
(b) The probability that a plane departed on time, given that it has arrived
on time, is
P(D|A) = P(D∩A) 0.78
P(A) = 0.82

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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

The notion of conditional probability provides the capability of

reevaluating the idea of probability of an event in light of additional
information, that is, when it is known that another event has
occurred. The probability P(A|B) is an updating of P(A) based on
the knowledge that event B has occurred.
In Example 2.34, it is important to know the probability that the
flight arrives on time. One is given the information that the flight did
not depart on time. Armed with this additional information, one can
calculate the more pertinent probability P(A|D 0 ) , that is, the
probability that it arrives on time, given that it did not depart on time.
In many situations, the conclusions drawn from observing the more
important conditional probability change the picture entirely. In this
example, the computation of
P(A|D 0 ) is
0)
P(A|D 0 ) = P(A∩D
P(D 0 ) =
0.82−0.78
0.17 = 0.24
As a result, the probability of an on-time arrival is diminished severely.
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PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Example 2.35:
The concept of conditional probability has countless uses in both industrial
and biomedical applications. Consider an industrial process in the textile
industry in which strips of a particular type of cloth are being produced.
These strips can be defective in two ways, length and nature of texture.
For the case of the latter, the process of identication is very complicated.
It is known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips
fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fail both tests.
If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick measurement
identies it as failing the length test, what is the probability that it is
texture defective?

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2.6 Conditional Probability and Independence

Solution:
Consider the events
L: length defective,
T: texture defective.
Given that the strip is length defective, the probability that this strip is
texture defective is given by
∩L)
P(T |L) = P(T 0.008
P(L) = 0.1 = 0.08
Thus, knowing the conditional probability provides considerably more
information than merely knowing P(T).

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Independent Events

Independent Events
Independent Events
In the die-tossing experiment discussed on page 62, we note that
P(B|A) = 2/5 whereas P(B) = 1/3 . That is, P(B|A) 6= P(B) ,
indicating that B depends on A .
Now consider an experiment in which 2 cards are drawn in succession
from an ordinary deck, with replacement. The events are dened as
A: the rst card is an ace,
B: the second card is a spade.
Since the first card is replaced, our sample space for both the rst and
the second draw consists of 52 cards, containing 4 aces and 13 spades.
Hence,
13 1 13 1
P(B|A) = 52 = 4 and P(B) = 52 = 4
That is, P(B|A) = P(B) . When this is true, the events A and B are
said to be independent.
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Independent Events

Independent Events
Denition 2.11:
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
P(B|A) = P(B) or P(A|B) = P(A) ,
assuming the existences of the conditional probabilities. Otherwise, A and
B are dependent.
The condition P(B|A) = P(B) implies that P(A|B) = P(A) , and
conversely.
For the card-drawing experiments, where we showed that
P(B|A) = P(B) = 1/4 ,
we also can see that P(A|B) = P(A) = 1/13 .

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Independent Events

The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative

Rule
The Product Rule, or the Multiplicative Rule
Multiplying the formula in Denition 2.10 by P(A) , we obtain the
following important multiplicative rule (or product rule), which
enables us to calculate the probability that two events will both occur.
Theorem 2.10:
If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B|A) , provided P(A) > 0 .
Thus, the probability that both A and B occur is equal to the
probability that A occurs multiplied by the conditional probability that
B occurs, given that A occurs. Since the events A ∩ B and B ∩ A are
equivalent, it follows from Theorem 2.10 that we can also write
P(A ∩ B) = P(B ∩ A) = P(B)P(A|B)
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Independent Events

In other words, it does not matter which event is referred to as A and

which event is referred to as B .
Example 2.36:
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the box in
succession without replacing the first, what is the probability that both
fuses are defective?
Solution:
We shall let A be the event that the rst fuse is defective and B the event
that the second fuse is defective; then we interpret A|B as the event that
A occurs and then B occurs after A has occurred. The probability of rst
removing a defective fuse is 1/4; then the probability of removing a second
defective fuse from the remaining 4 is 4/19. Hence,
4
P(A|B) = ( 41 )( 19 1
) = 19

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Independent Events

Theorem 2.11:
Two events A and B are independent if and only if
P(A|B) = P(A)P(B) .
Therefore, to obtain the probability that two independent events will both
occur, we simply nd the product of their individual probabilities.
Example 2.38:
A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for
emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available when needed
is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is
0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building, nd the
probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be available,
assuming they operate independently.
Solution:
Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine and the
ambulance are available. Then
P(A|B) = P(A)P(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016 .
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Gratitude

THANK YOU

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