Statistics 1

Chapter 5:
Probability

By Caleb Tan

Objectives
 apply the ideas and notation involved in set theory to
simple examples
 recall the basic axioms of probability and apply them
 distinguish between the ideas of conditional probability
and independence
 draw and use appropriate Venn diagrams
 draw and use appropriate probability trees.

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 Probability
 Venn Diagram (self-study SG 5.9.2)

Types of Events
 Sample Space S
◦ All Outcomes
◦ Toss a coin, S = {H, T}
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

 Event E
◦ A subset of S
◦ Obtaining Head, E = {H}
◦ Even numbers, E = {2, 4, 6}

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 Types of Events
 Complement Event Ec
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

◦ Numbers less than 3, E = {1, 2}

◦ Not less than 3, Ec = {3, 4, 5, 6}

Types of Events
 Intersection of Events
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
◦ Even numbers, A = {2, 4, 6}
◦ Numbers greater than 3, B = {4, 5, 6}
◦ Even numbers and greater than 3, A  B = {4, 6}

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 Types of Events
 Mutually Exclusive Events
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
◦ Odd numbers, A = {1, 3, 5}
◦ Even numbers, B = {2, 4, 6}
◦ A  B =  or { }

A B

Types of Events
 Union of Events
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
◦ Even numbers, A = {2, 4, 6}
◦ Numbers greater than 3, B = {4, 5, 6}
◦ Even numbers or greater than 3,
A  B = {2, 4, 5, 6}

The entire shaded area

represents AB

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 Types of Events
 De Morgan’s Laws

◦ (A  B)c = Ac  Bc

◦ (A  B)c = Ac  Bc

Types of Events
 Collectively Exhaustive Events
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
◦ Even numbers, E1 = {2, 4, 6}
◦ Numbers less than 4, E2 = {1, 2, 3}
◦ Numbers at least 5, E3 = {5, 6}
◦ E 1  E2  E3 = S

E1
E2

E3

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 Types of Events
 Partition
◦ Mutually Exclusive and Collective Exhaustive
◦ Roll a dice, S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
◦ B1 = {1, 2} , B2 = {3, 4}, B3 = {5, 6}
◦ B1, B2 and B3 are pairwise mutually exclusive
and B1  B2  B3 = S

B1 B2 B3

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Class Activity 3.1

Two fair dice were thrown and the sum of the values was recorded.

a) Produce a sample space

b) For the following events, list down the elements (including the
frequency) and classify the types of events:

i. A: Sum is Odd and B: Sum is Less than 5

ii. A: Sum is Odd or B: Sum is Less than 5
iii. A: Sum is Odd and C: Sum is Even

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 Concept of Probability
 Probability of likely elementary outcomes

◦ E: Event of Interest

◦ n(E): number of elements in set E

◦ n(S): Number of elements in the Sample Space

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Properties of Probability
 Axioms of Probability
◦ For any event E, 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1

◦ P(S) = 1 where S is the sample space

◦ If { Ai }, i = 1, 2, . . . , n, are mutually exclusive

events then

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 Probability - Example
n( Pass Stats ) 84 7
P(Pass Stats) = = =
Total 108 9

Gender
Result Male Female Total
Pass Stats 48 36 84
Fail Stats 11 13 24
Total 59 49 108

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Probability - Example
P(Pass Stats and Male)
n(Pass Stats and Male) 48 4
= = =
Total 108 9

Gender
Result Male Female Total
Pass Stats 48 36 84
Fail Stats 11 13 24
Total 59 49 108

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 Probability
 Additive Law (SG 5.9.3)
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)

 Complement Probability
P(Ac) = 1 - P(A)

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Probability - Example
A B
P(Pass Stats or Female)
= P(Pass) + P(Female) - P(Pass and Female)

= 84/108 + 49/108 - 36/108 = 97/108

Gender
Result Male Female Total
Pass Stats 48 36 84
Fail Stats 11 13 24
Total 59 49 108

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 Class Activity 3.2
The following table shows the joint distribution for
engineers and scientists by highest degree obtained:

Engineer Scientist Total

Bachelor 34 27 61
Master 19 12 31
Doctorate 3 5 8
Total 56 44 100

1. Determine P(Master and Engineer).

2. Determine P(Master or Engineer).
3. Determine P(Not Bachelor).
4. Are the events ‘Master’ and ‘Engineer’ mutually
exclusive? Why?

Ans: 0.19, 0.68, 0.39

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Conditional Probability
 Conditional Probability (SG 5.10)

Probability? Event Already

Happened

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 Conditional Probability Example
Subject Female Male Total
Mathematics 4 14 18
Economics 17 41 58
Science 4 25 29
Arts 28 11 39
Total 53 91 144

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Class Activity 3.3

Subject Female Male Total
Mathematics 4 14 18
Economics 17 41 58
Science 4 25 29
Arts 28 11 39
Total 53 91 144

Find
1. P(Arts | Male)

2. P(Male | Arts)

Ans: 11/91, 11/39

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 Independent Events
 A and B independent means
P(A | B) = P(A)

 Example:
◦ Event A: Obtain a Head from tossing a coin
◦ Event B: Obtain a 6 from rolling a dice

 Events A and B are independent if and

only if
P(A  B) = P(A) x P(B)

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Bayes’ Formula
When use?

Have

Want

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 General Form of Bayes’ Formula
B1 B2 B3

Recall:

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Bayes’ Formula Example

P(Bill) = 0.6

In an audit Bill analyses 60% of the audit items and

George analyses 40%. Bill’s error rate is 5% and
George’s error rate is 3%. Suppose an item is
sampled at random. P(Error|Bill) = 0.05
P(George) = 0.4 P(Error|George) = 0.03

1. What is the probability that it is in error (audited

incorrectly)? P(Error)

2. If the chosen item is incorrect what is the

probability that Bill is to blame? P(Bill | Error)

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13
 In an audit Bill analyses 60% of the audit
items and George analyses 40%. Bill’s error
rate is 5% and George’s error rate is 3%.

0.05 Error

Bill
0.6
0.95 No Error
Audit
Item
0.4
0.03 Error
George
0.97 No Error

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Bayes’ Formula Example

1.
= 0.6 x 0.05 + 0.4 x 0.03 = 0.042

2.

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 Class Activity 3.4
 SG Pg 113, Learning Activities Question 12

A student can enter a course either as a beginner (73% of all

students) or as a transferring student (27% of all students). It is
found that 62% of beginners eventually graduate, and that 78% of
transferring students eventually graduate.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen student:

i. is a beginner who will eventually graduate
ii. will eventually graduate
iii. is either a beginner or will eventually graduate, or both.
(b) If a student eventually graduates, what is the probability that
the student entered as a transferring student?
(c) Are the events ‘Eventually graduates’ and ‘Enters as a
transferring student’ statistically independent?

Ans: (a) 0.4526, 0.66322, 0.9406 (b) 0.3176

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Homework
VLE Activities

Do SG Section 5.14: Question 1 to 12

Do SG Section 5.16: Question 1 to 3

Do Self-Practice L03: All Questions

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