PM SHRI KENDRIYA VIDYALAYA PITAMPURA SHIFT-1

CLASS-XII
CHAPTER-13 PROBABILITY
1 Find the probability distribution of X, the number of heads in a
simultaneous toss of two coins.
S={HH,HT,TH,TT}, so number of heads may be 0,1,2
Thus, the possible values of X are 0, 1, 2.
1 1 1
Now, P(X = 0) = ,P(X = 1) = , P(X = 2) =
4 2 4
Probability distribution:
𝑋 0 1 2
P(X) 1 1 1
4 2 4
2 Find Mean of probability distribution:
𝑋 0 1 2
P(X) 1 1 1
4 2 4
1 1 1
Mean =∑ 𝑋. 𝑃(𝑋) = 0 × + 1 × + 2 × = 1
4 2 4
3 Find k for probability distribution P(X)

Find Mean also.

Making it in tabular format, we get the following
𝑋 0 1 2 Otherwise
P(X) 𝑘 2𝑘 3𝑘 0
Since, sum of all probabilities=1
⇒ 𝑘 + 2𝑘 + 3𝑘 = 1
1
⇒ 6𝑘 = 1 ⇒ 𝑘 =
6
7
Mean =∑ 𝑋. 𝑃(𝑋) = 0 × 𝑘 + 1 × 2𝑘 + 2 × 3𝑘 + 0 × 0 = 7𝑘 =
6
4 If the probability distribution of random variable X is as follows:
X 0.5 1 1.5 2
P(X) k 𝑘 2
2𝑘 2 k
Find value of k and mean of distribution.
Since, sum of all probabilities=1
⇒ 𝑘 + 𝑘 2 + 2 𝑘 2 + 𝑘 = 1 ⇒ 3 𝑘 2 + 2𝑘 − 1 = 0
⇒ (3𝑘 − 1)(𝑘 + 1) = 0
1
⇒ 𝑘 = −1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑘 =
3
1
Probability cannot be negative, thus 𝑘 =
3
Mean =∑ 𝑋. 𝑃(𝑋) = 0.5 × 𝑘 + 1 × 𝑘 + 1.5 × 2𝑘 2 + 2 × 𝑘 = 2.5𝑘 + 4𝑘 2
2

1 1 11.5 115 23
= 2.5 × + 4 × = = =
3 9 90 900 180
5 The probability distribution of random variable X is given below
𝑋 2 3 4 5
P(X) 5 7 9 11
𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘
Find the value of k and mean of distribution.
Sum of Probability=1
After Solving 𝑘 = 32
5 7 9 11 122 122 61
Mean =∑ 𝑋. 𝑃(𝑋) = 2 × + 3 × + 4 × + 5 × = = =
𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 𝑘 32 16
6 A random variable X has the following distribution table:
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P (X) 0 k 2 k 2 k 3k 𝑘 2
2 𝑘 7 𝑘2 + 𝑘
2

Determine (i) k (ii) P(X < 3) (iii) P (X > 6) (iv) P (𝑋 ≤ 3)

Sum of Probability=1
1
(i) After Solving 𝑘 =
10
3
(ii) 𝑃(X < 3) = 𝑃(0) + 𝑃(1) + 𝑃(2) = 0 + 𝑘 + 2𝑘 = 3𝑘 =
10
1 1 17
(iii) 𝑃(X > 6) = 𝑃(7) = 7 𝑘 + 𝑘 = 7 × 2
+ =
100 10 100
5 1
(iv) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = 5k = =
10 2
7 Two cards are drawn successively with replacement from a well-
shuffled pack of 52 playing cards. Find the probability distribution
of number of kings and hence find the mean of the distribution.
X= Number of kings.
So, X=0,1,2
48 48 144 48𝐶2
𝑃(0) = 𝑃(𝐾’𝐾’) = × = OR
52 52 169 52𝐶2
4 48 48 4 24 48𝐶1 4𝐶1
𝑃(1) = 𝑃(𝐾𝐾’) + 𝑃(𝐾’𝐾) = × + × = OR
52 52 52 52 169 52𝐶2
4 4 1 4 𝐶2
𝑃(2) = 𝑃(𝐾𝐾) = × = OR
52 52 169 52𝐶2
Probability distribution:
𝑋 0 1 2
P(X) 144 24 1
169 169 169
8 From a lot of 30 bulbs which include 6 defectives, a sample of 4
bulbs is drawn at random with replacement. Find the probability
distribution of the number of defective bulbs.
X= Number of defective bulbs.
So, X=0,1,2,3,4
24𝐶 24𝐶 6𝐶 24𝐶 6𝐶 24𝐶 6𝐶 6𝐶
𝑃(0) = 4 ; 𝑃(1) = 3 1 ; 𝑃(2) = 2 2 ; 𝑃(3) = 1 3 ; 𝑃(4) = 4
30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4

Probability distribution:
𝑋 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 24𝐶4 24𝐶3 6𝐶1 24𝐶2 6𝐶2 24𝐶1 6𝐶3 6𝐶4
30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4 30𝐶4
9 If P(A∩B) = 0.15, P(B’) = 0.10, then find P(A/B).
𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵′) = 1 − 0.10 = 0.90
𝐴 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 0.15 1
𝑃( ) = = =
𝐵 𝑃(𝐵) 0.90 6
10 3 2 3
If P(A) = , P(B) = and P(AUB) = ,then find P(B/A) + P(A/B).
10 5 5
3 2 3 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = + − =
10 5 5 10
1 1
𝐵 𝐴 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 10 10 7
𝑃( )+𝑃( ) = + = + =
𝐴 𝐵 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵) 3 2 12
10 5
11 If P(not A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.7 and P(B/A) = 0.5, then find P(A/B)
𝐵 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝑃(𝐴)
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
Or 0.5 = ⇒ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.15
1−0.7
𝐴 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) 0.15 15 3
Now, 𝑃 ( ) = = = =
𝐵 𝑃(𝐵) 0.7 70 14
12 Given P(E) = 0.8, (F) = 0.7,(E ∩ F) = 0.6. Find P(E
̅/F̅)
𝐸̅ 𝑃(𝐸̅ ∩ 𝐹̅ ) 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹)′ 1 − 𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹)
𝑃( ) = = =
𝐹̅ 𝑃(𝐹̅ ) 𝑃(𝐹̅ ) 1 − 𝑃(𝐹)
Since,𝑃(𝐸 ∪ 𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐸) + 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹) = 0.8 + 0.7 − 0.6 = 0.9
𝐸̅ 1−𝑃(𝐸∩𝐹) 1−0.9 0.1 1
Hence, 𝑃 ( ̅ ) = = = =
𝐹 1−𝑃(𝐹) 1−0.7 0.3 3
13 If P(A) =0.4 P(B) = 0.2 and P(AUB) =0.5 then find P(A∩B).
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)
= 0.4 + 0.2 − 0.5 = 0.1
14 1
If A and B are two independent events with P(A) = and P(B) = ,
1
3 4
then find P (B ′ /A)
𝐵′ 𝑃(𝐵′ ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝑃(𝐴)
A and B are two independent events so, 𝑃(𝐵′ ∩ 𝐴)= 𝑃(𝐵′). 𝑃(𝐴)
𝐵′ 𝑃(𝐵′ ∩ 𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵′). 𝑃(𝐴) 1 3
𝑃( ) = = = 𝑃(𝐵′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵) = 1 − =
𝐴 𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐴) 4 4
15 An item is manufactured by three machines A, B and C. Out of
the total numbers of items manufactured during a specified
period,50% are manufactured on A, 30% are manufactured on B,
20% are manufactured on C. 2% of items produced on A, 2% of
items produced on B and 3% produced on C are defective. All the
items are stored at one storeroom.
(i) One item is drawn at random and is found to be defective.
What is the probability that it is manufactured on machine A?
(ii) One item is drawn at random and is found to be defective.
What is the probability that it is manufactured on machine B?
 Let 𝐸1 = Event that item is manufactured on A.
𝐸2 = Event that item is manufactured on B.
𝐸3 = Event that item is manufactured on C.
Let A be the event that an item is defective.
50 30 20
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
100 100 100
𝐴 2 𝐴 2 𝐴 3
𝑃( ) = , 𝑃( ) = , 𝑃( ) =
𝐸1 100 𝐸2 100 𝐸3 100
(i)By, Bayes Theorem,
𝐴
𝐸1 𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 (𝐸 )
1
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3
50 2
× 100
= 100
50 2 30 2 20 3
100 × 100 + 100 × 100 + 100 × 100
100 100 5
= = =
100+60+60 220 11
(ii)By, Bayes Theorem,
𝐴
𝐸2 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸2
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3
30 2
×
= 100 100
50 2 30 2 20 3
× + × + ×
100 100 100 100 100 100
60 60 3
= =
100 + 60 + 60 220 11
16 Two groups are competing for the positions of the Board of
Directors of a corporation. The probabilities that the first and
second groups will win are 0.6 and 0.4 respectively. Further, if
the first group wins, the probability of introducing a new product
is 0.7 and the corresponding probability is 0.3 if the second group
wins. Find the probability that the new product introduced way by
the second group.
Let 𝐸1 = Event that first group win.
𝐸2 = Event that second group win.
Let A be the event of introducing the new product.
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 0.4
𝐴 𝐴
𝑃 ( ) = 0.7, 𝑃 ( ) = 0.3
𝐸1 𝐸2
By, Bayes Theorem,
𝐴
𝑃(𝐸 ). 𝑃 (
𝐸2 2 𝐸2 )
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2
0.4 × 0.3 12 2
= = =
0.6 × 0.7 + 0.4 × 0.3 54 9
17 A bag X contains 4 white balls and 2 black balls, while another
bag Y contains 3 white balls and 3 black balls. Two balls are
drawn (without replacement) at random from one of the bags and
were found to be one white and one black. Find the probability
that the balls were drawn from bag Y.
Let 𝐸1 = Event that Bag X selected.
𝐸2 = Event that Bag Y selected.
Let A be the event 1W and 1B ball is selected.
1 1
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸2 ) =
2 2
𝐴 4𝐶1 2𝐶1 8 𝐴 3𝐶 3𝐶 9
𝑃( ) = = , 𝑃( ) = 1 1 =
𝐸1 6𝐶2 15 𝐸2 6𝐶2 15
By, Bayes Theorem,
𝐴
𝑃(𝐸 ). 𝑃 (
𝐸2 2 𝐸2 )
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2
1 9
× 9
= 2 15 =
1 8 1 9 17
× + ×
2 15 2 15
18 There are three coins. One is two-headed coin, another is biased
coin that comes up heads 75% of the time and the third is an
unbiased coin. One of three coins is chosen at random and
tossed. If it shows heads, what is the probability that it is the
two-headed coin?
Let 𝐸1 = two-headed coin
𝐸2 = biased coin that comes up heads
𝐸3 = unbiased coin.
Let A be the event that show heads.
1 1 1
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
3 3 3
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃 ( ) = 1, 𝑃 ( ) = 0.75, 𝑃 ( ) = 0.5
𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3
By, Bayes Theorem,
𝐴
𝑃(𝐸 ). 𝑃 (
𝐸1 1 𝐸1 )
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3
1
×1
= 3
1 1 1
× 1 + × 0.75 + × 0.5
3 3 3
1 1 100 4
= = =
1 + 0.75 + 0.5 2.25 225 9

19 The reliability of a COVID PCR test is specified as follows: Of

people having COVID, 90% of the test detects the disease but
 10% goes undetected. Of people free of COVID, 99% of the test
is judged COVID negative but 1% are diagnosed as showing
COVID positive. From a large population of which only 0.1% have
COVID, one person is selected at random, given the COVID PCR
test, and the pathologist reports him/her as COVID positive.
(i) A person is selected at random and tested. What is the
probability that he is tested positive?
(ii) What is the probability that the ‘person is actually having
COVID given that ‘he is tested as COVID positive’?
20 Three machines E1, E2 and E3 in a certain factory producing
electric bulbs, produce 50%, 25% and 25% respectively, of the
total daily output of electric bulbs. It is known that 4% of the
bulbs produced by each of machines E1 and E2 are defective and
that 5% of those produced by machine E3 are defective. If one
bulb is picked up at random from a day’s production, calculate
the probability that it is defective.
Let 𝐸1 = Event that the bulb is produced by machine E1
𝐸2 = by machine E2, 𝐸3 = produced by machine E3
Let A Event that the picked up bulb is defective
50 25 25
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = , 𝑃(𝐸3 ) =
100 100 100
𝐴 4 𝐴 4 𝐴 5
𝑃( ) = , 𝑃( ) = , 𝑃( ) =
𝐸1 100 𝐸2 100 𝐸3 100
By, Total probability,
𝐴 𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸3 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3
50 4 25 4 25 5 425 17
= × + × + × = =
100 100 100 100 100 100 10000 400
21 A person has undertaken a construction job. The probabilities are
0.65 that there will be strike, 0.80 that the construction job will
be completed on time if there is no strike, and 0.32 that the
construction job will be completed on time if there is a strike.
Determine the probability that the construction job will be
completed on time.
Let 𝐸1 = Event that there will be strike
𝐸2 = Event that there will be no strike
Let A Event that construction job will be completed on time.
𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 0.65, 𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 0.35,
𝐴 𝐴
𝑃 ( ) = 0.32, 𝑃 ( ) = 0.80
𝐸1 𝐸2
By, Total probability,
𝐴 𝐴
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ). 𝑃 ( ) + 𝑃(𝐸2 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐸1 𝐸2
= 0.65 × 0.32 + 0.35 × 0.80 = 0.208 + 0.280 = 0.488