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Lecture 4 Feasibility of International Trade

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
19 views45 pages

Lecture 4 Feasibility of International Trade

Uploaded by

zhangxinyu517
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Situational Analysis:

Determining Current State and


Opportunities for Growth
Module 1 – Units 3 and 4
Assignment 1
• All grades published.
• Question 1
• Tests your knowledge of Unit 1
• Discussed in first lecture
• Slides 26-29 Lecture 1 and pages 7-10 of textbook
• Question 2
• Tests your knowledge of Unit 2, Stage 2
• Discussed in second lecture
• Slide 31 and Case Study of Lecture 2 and textbook pages 55 – 61
So far, we’ve learned to….
• Assess internal organizations readiness – should export/import even
be considered? If yes…
• Started planning international research:
• Define research objectives – problem or opportunity, key research issues,
types of research requirements
• Create a research brief
• Narrowed the focus – cut down the number of markets using secondary
(desk) research to those that hold the most potential (5-10)
• Designing the next stage of research to further narrow markets
(quantitative/qualitative, exploratory, descriptive, causal) to 1-2.
Situational Analysis: Determining Current State
and Opportunity for Growth

UNIT 5
Collecting Data for
Primary Research
◎ STAGE 5: Design Data Collection Tools and Collect Primary Data
◎ Deciding Who Will Collect the Primary Data
◎ Collecting Primary Data Through Focus Groups
◎ Collecting Primary Data Through Questionnaires and Surveys
◎ Collecting Primary Data Through Interviews
◎ Collecting Primary Data Through Observation
◎ Visiting the Target Market
◎ Sampling Plans for Primary Research

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Why Is This Important?

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Design Data Collection Tools and Collect Primary Data

STAGE 1.Surveys

5 2.Questionnaires
3.Focus Groups
4.Observation

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Deciding Who Will Collect Primary Data
Internal Researchers
o Deep understanding of organization
o Accessible
o Knowledge gained through research will add to company’s knowledge base
o Costs as part of worker’s responsibility
o Understand organization’s research preferences

External Researchers
o Can select qualified agency (e.g. right skills, expertise, knowledge)
o Can negotiate time frames
o No inherent bias

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Finding a Research Agency

FIGURE 5.1

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Collecting Primary Data Through Focus Groups

• Most effective to collect:


• First hand responses
• Helping to prep questionnaire or survey
• Updating facts about market

• Recruiting Focus Groups


• Running the Focus Group Focus Group Techniques
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Auf9pkuCc8k
• Focus Groups in International Trade

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Collecting Primary Data Through Questionnaires and
Surveys

• Structured Questionnaires
• Unstructured Questionnaires
• Semi-Structured Questionnaires

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Reserved
Guidelines for Development

• Clear instructions on how to complete


• Easy to read – clear standard format
• Introduction – create interest, assure privacy
• Simple, brief questions
• Order logically
• Move from general to specific
• Use of variety of question styles
• Check questions against research objectives
• Allow for written responses
• Consider analysis
• Pretest
Process for Designing a Questionnaire

Identify needs and


Revise draft questionnaire
delivery method

Translate into rough Do questions match


questionnaire draft Y data needs? N

Is the wording clear


Check suitability of questions Y N
and unbiased?

Is the sequence logical


Y and objective? N

Is the layout clear and


Y encouraging to response? N

Does the delivery method


Pretest rough draft Y match research needs?
N

Make suggested changes

Another pre-test: Are


Y N Prepare final questionnaire
there any last questions?

Adapted FIGURE 5.2

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Questionnaire Administration

TABLE 5.13

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Comparison of Survey Delivery Methods
Method C o s t / Ti m e D a t a Collected Comments

Face t o Face • Most expensive method • Researchers can collect • Method requires well-
large amounts of data trained interviewers fluent
• Can involve substantial
in local language, and
travel • Researchers can ask understand local customs
complex questions
• Researchers can control
• High cost can limit
time taken to collect data • Researchers can clarify sample size and
answers and use non- geographic coverage
verbal cues

Telephone • Moderate cost • Researchers can clarify • Sample is limited to those


answers with current and listed
• Enables shortest elapsed
telephone number
time for each interview • Researchers collect smaller
amounts of data • Much easier for
respondent to end
• Researchers must limit interview than with a
complexity of questions survey taken in person

TABLE 5.2
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Comparison of Survey Delivery Methods,
Continued
Method C o s t / Ti m e D a t a Collected Comments
Pa p e r M a i l • Low to moderate cost • Researchers have less • Method requires simple,
• Involves the longest ability to ask long or clear and brief questions
wait for results complex questions • Respondents can easily
• Researchers often need a • Researchers cannot choose not to answer the
second survey to follow up clarify unclear survey
responses • Response to mail surveys is
extremely low
• Researchers can cover a
wide geographic area and a
large sample

Email and • Very low cost • Researchers have less • Questions must be
Internet • Response times are ability to ask long or written in short format
often rapid complex questions • In some markets, Internet
• Researchers cannot clarify access might be limited
unclear responses, but • Can cover very large
can use an e-interviewer global area

TABLE 5.2
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Improving Response Rates
• Notify respondents in advance
• If sent by mail:
• Send first class
• Include postage paid envelope
• Cover letter should ‘ask for help’ and indicate confidentiality
• Make it easy to read and complete
• Make it as concise as possible
• Offer incentives
• Send reminders

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Factors to Consider in International Markets
Language L i teracy C u l t ur e I n f ra s t r u c t u r e
Care must be taken not to Literacy levels of a country In some countries, privacy Supporting infrastructure can
assume that culture and influence the response to is closely guarded affect efficiency and validity of
language are the same surveys studies, e.g.
There might be reluctance to
throughout the country • Telephones restricted by
High literacy = higher respond to questions in writing,
social or income class lead to
Costs of translating a confidence that respondent especially in countries with
biased results
questionnaire and interpreting understands and will complete history of censorship or other
data must be factored into survey restrictions • Irregular mail delivery can
research design affect response time
Varied literacy levels may affect
return rates
• Contact information (e.g.
addresses, phone numbers)
may be unavailable or
outdated

Adapted from TABLE 5.3

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Collecting Primary Data Through Interviews

• Preparation for Interviews


• Interviews in International Trade Research
o Language and pronunciation issues
o Cultural differences
o Communication issues
o Body language

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Collecting Primary Data Through Observation

• Unobtrusive
• Well suited for quantitative and qualitative data
• Useful for:
o Recording acceptable behavior
o Testing distribution methods
o Testing acceptance of product or packaging
• Many forms, e.g.:
o ‘Silent shopper’ (act as a member of the public who is buying or inquiring
about a product or service)
o Use of video cameras
o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG4lFmSO7VQ
o Online observation

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Visiting the Target Market
INFORMATION TO KNOW

Before the Trip During the Visit


o Standard business hours and dates, o Possible distribution channels
public holidays o Pricing, product or service characteristics
o Typical consumer behaviour in the market
o Means of transport
o Competitor’s promotional activities
o Materials required for meetings o Standard packaging
o Business and social etiquette o Industry standards and regulations
o Costs of applications and testing
o Industry statistics

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Sampling Plans for Primary Research
Who Will be Researched?
oIdentifying the population for the study or overall group
oDetermining the specific characteristics of the sample group
oSelecting the tool or method to be used

What Method will be Used?


oProbability based method – random selection
oNon-probability based method – convenience, judgement or
quota.

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Use of Sampling Methods
Criteria N o n - probability Probability

What kind of information is Average use or proportion who prefer Totals that can be projected to the
needed? option 1 over option 2 entire population, such as market share

What kind of accuracy is Trends and general figures Highly accurate estimates with little
needed? tolerance for error

How large are non-sampling errors Large prospects for errors in respondent Little prospect, meaning errors due to
to be? selection and non- responses due to poor sample selection can have large
limited access impact

How much variation is there in Little variation, so unlikely to select a High variation (e.g. a country with
characteristics of the population? highly non- representative sample many religions)

What is the expected cost of the sampling Low cost if the data has high or low High cost for low accuracy
errors? accuracy
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Adapted from TABLE 5.4


Source: Tull, Donald and D Hawkins, “Marketing Research: Measurement and
Method”
Breakout Groups
An American company that sells high-end sportswear is exploring the
possibility of exporting to South America. Preliminary market screening and
secondary research has narrowed the potential market to Brazil. The
company has decided to do its own primary research in the country, and is
sending two researchers to collect this data over a two-week period. Some
of the primary objectives of this research are to determine where consumers
buy their high-end sportswear, and what the consumer preferences are for
product design and packaging.
1. Identify the types of primary research you think they should incorporate
into their plan and justify your choice(s).
2. What potential challenges will the team have during its data collection?
How can these challenges be overcome?
Situational Analysis: Determining Current State
and Opportunity for Growth

UNIT 6
Organizing Data and Presenting
Conclusions
◎ STAGE 6: Organize and Analyze the Data
◎ Assess the Quality and Reliability of the Data
◎ Sort and Classify the Data
◎ Perform Statistical Tests and Analyze the Results
◎ STAGE 7: Present Conclusions and Apply the Research
◎ Ongoing Research and Global Market Information Management Systems

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Why Is This Important?

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Organize and Analyze the Data
STAGE
Assess the quality and reliability of the data

6 Sort and classify the data


Perform statistical tests and analyze the results

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Assess the Quality and Reliability of the Data
Consider if data source is:
oThorough in coverage
o Detailed enough
o Relevant
o Up to date
oRestrictive, e.g. confidentiality issues
o Collected using appropriate methodologies
o Accurate
o Internally consistent

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Sort and Classify the Data
• Sort data to eliminate material that is not needed and to classify similar
types of data into meaningful categories
• Identify trends and formulate preliminary conclusions

• E.g. Bicycle manufacturer interested in exporting to Italy might have the


following data:
• Italian bike sales from a bicycle magazine (secondary)
• Interview data about consumer bicycle preferences (primary)
• Demographics and climate data from Italian government (secondary)
• Distribution channels from Italian trade counselors (primary)

• Sort into news, statistics and other.


• Further sort based on types of bicycles – mountain, road, youth.
• Ensure units are the same.
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Perform Statistical Tests and Analyze the Results
• Analyze collated data using someone experienced in
statistical analysis

• Draw conclusions about what the research means

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Sample Questionnaire

FIGURE 6.1
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Sample Frequency Tabulation

TABLE 6.1

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Perform Statistical Tests and Analyze the Results,
Continued
Coding Qualitative Data
o Transcribe notes, interviews, recordings
o Organize/sort out
o Convert into coded numerical figures
o Enter data into database

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Example Coding – Interview Responses
“I buy apples every week because they are the only fruit that my whole
family will eat. I have to buy red and green apples because my husband
likes the tart green apples and my son doesn’t. He prefers the sweeter
red apples. I don’t know which variety I purchase most; I just usually
buy the ones on sale.”
- What are key discrete points?
- What could we use as key “codes”?
Perform Statistical Tests and Analyze the Results,
Continued
• Identifying Types of Data
• Nominal: categorized by name (green=1, red=2)
• Ordinal: data in which numbers have a meaning (Rank the
following based on importance – understands the importance
of certain qualities)
• Interval: rating items on a scale (How satisfied are you – scale
1-5)
• Ratio: shows how respondents’ answers compare statistically
with other respondents’ responses (25% of respondents
bought apples weekly)
Comparison of Measures to Calculate Central Tendency
Measure Uses and Comments H o w to Calculate

Mean – • Most data provided by secondary sources is in the form • Add the value of each response and divide
average of a
of a mean figure by the total number of responses
group of
numbers • Used to draw conclusions about the actions
of a group
• When calculated in units, multiply the mean by the total
population size to estimate a total number of units (e.g.
market size)
• Mean can be skewed if some responses are
much higher or lower than majority

M e d i a n , or the • If extreme values exist, median can be a better • Arrange responses from lowest to highest
value of the measure and find the value in the middle, with one
middle term half of responses above and one half of
responses below

M o d e , or • Mode is most useful to identify the most frequent • Certain values might appear repeatedly
the most amount, purchase or demand in a data series; the mode identified the
frequent • Also useful where two definite categories of value or values that occur most often
response majority response

Adapted from TABLE 6.2


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Perform Statistical Tests and Analyze the Results,
Continued
Sampling Error
INTERPRETING
o Depends on the size of the population being DATA
studied Identify key findings and relate them to
o Depends on the variability of the characteristics research objectives

o Usually gets smaller as the sample size increases Group data against objectives; identify patterns

o Can be accounted for and reduced using a sample Confirm accuracy and completeness of
gain work
Check for bias

Statistical Significance
o Significance testing indicates whether the
difference between figures from different
samples or sub-samples is a true difference or
can be explained by chance fluctuations

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Present Conclusions and Apply the Research

STAGE How research objectives relate to the business problem


or question

7 Whether the findings were to be expected or whether


they were surprising

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Typical Written Report
• Title page
• Table of contents
• Executive summary Introduction
• Identification of research objectives and methodology
• Identification of strategic and tactical issues
• Findings
• Recommendations and action plan
• Appendices
• Bibliography

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Presenting Numerical Data
PIE CHART Displaying Search Engine Market Breakdown in China by Revenue

TABLE 5.39

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Presenting Numerical Data, Continued
SPIDER or TARGET CHART Showing Satisfaction with Online Supplier

FIGURE
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Reserved 6.3
Presenting Numerical Data, Continued
BAR CHART Comparing Product Satisfaction by Country

TABLE 5.41
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Presenting Qualitative Data

FLOW DIAGRAM Showing a Manufacturing and


Distribution Process

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Reserved FIGURE 6.5
Conducting the Presentation
• Objectives
• Key findings

• Method

• Recommendations

• Critical success factors

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Ongoing Research and Global Market Information Management
Systems
• To be truly useful, market research should be ongoing: systematic
gathering of information informs decision making
• Information management systems (IMS) help monitor external
environment for emerging trends or events
• Key factors affecting international marketing decisions:
• Economic factors

• Political-legal dimensions

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Next Class

• Online – Teams invite


• Read Module 2: Units 1-2

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