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Introduction to Deterministic Models

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266 views13 pages

Introduction to Deterministic Models

Uploaded by

explorelets63
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Introduction to

Deterministic Models
By: Muhammad Luqman Qadir
Deterministic Models

• Mathematical or computational models that operate under the


assumption that the model’s outcomes are completely determined by
the parameters and initial conditions set by the user.
• In a deterministic model, no randomness is involved, meaning that
the model will always produce the same output for a given set of
inputs.
Deterministic Models
• The exact relationship b/w a dependent and independent variable can be
observed through a deterministic model which means that we can
exactly/uniquely determine the value of a dependent variable for a given
value of independent variable.
Example:
• Y= 1500 + 100X
Y = Rent of a car, X = number of km
Initial rent=1500 , per mile charge= 100
• If a person takes a car and covers 5 km, then he has to pay 2000 because
Y= 1500 + 100(5) = 2000
• Y= 2000 for all those who take the car and cover 5km. rent is unique for all,
it means we can uniquely specify the rent for a given value of X=5
Key Characteristics
• Predictability: Deterministic models provide a single forecast for a
given set of initial conditions, for a specific location and time.
• No Randomness: Unlike stochastic models, deterministic models do
not account for random variation or probabilistic outcomes.
• Fixed Outputs: For the same inputs, the model always generates the
same outputs.
• Mathematical Nature: Often described by mathematical equations
(e.g., algebraic, differential, or difference equations)
Example of a deterministic system in real life
• The motion of planets in the solar system
• The behavior of a mechanical clock
• The flow of water in a sealed container
Probabilistic Model
• A Probabilistic Model is a type of mathematical or computational
model that incorporates random variables and uncertainty to account
for the variability in outcomes.
• Unlike deterministic models, probabilistic models recognize that the
same input can lead to different outputs due to inherent randomness
or unknown factors in the system.
• In such cases there must be some reasonable amount of random
error, from the right now the philosophy of random error came into
being so in modelling such sort of non-exact r/p between a dep &
independent variables, we use a probabilistic model.
Example
y= a + bx +e
Y=8+9.5X+e
• X= Height in feet
• Y= Weight in kg
• e= random error
• Initial weight=8
• Weight increased by 9.5 kg/per foot If a person's height is 6 feet that are x= 6
then y= 65
• But y= 65 is not unique for all those, whose height is 6, because we can't
exactly determine the weight for a given height because there is a non-exact
linear r/p between height & weight.
Key Characteristics
• Uncertainty and Randomness: The model includes random variables, which
means that the output can vary, even with the same set of inputs.
• Predictive Nature: Rather than providing a single outcome, probabilistic
models offer a range of possible outcomes, often expressed in terms of
probabilities.
• Distributions: Outcomes are typically described by probability distributions
(e.g., normal, binomial, Poisson distributions), reflecting the likelihood of
different outcomes.
• Real-World Application: Probabilistic models are often used in situations
where uncertainty is an inherent part of the system being modeled, such as in
finance, weather forecasting, and machine learning
Example
An example of a probabilistic model is weather forecasting. Weather is
influenced by numerous random factors like air pressure, temperature,
and humidity. A probabilistic weather model doesn’t predict a single
definitive outcome but provides probabilities of various events, such
as:
• 70% chance of rain,
• 30% chance of no rain.
Uses of Probabilistic Model
• Machine learning
• Artificial intelligence
• Data analysis
Example of a deterministic system in real life
• Sports
• Weather reports
• Blood samples
• Predicting the sex of the baby in the womb
Graph for Deterministic Model
Graph for Probabilistic Model

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