challenges Economic activity is expected to remain
robust at 6.5 percent in 2024 (3.7 percent Table 1 2023 The service sector constitutes the largest per capita), supported by the expansion Population, million 4.9 share of Mauritania’s economy, but ex- of services and by increases in iron ore GDP, current US$ billion 10.6 tractives will continue to drive exports and fish exports of 15 and 43 percent y- GDP per capita, current US$ 2183.7 and growth in the near term. The first o-y in the first half of 2024. Overall, real a 5.4 International poverty rate ($2.15) phase of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim exports grew by 15 percent over the a 25.8 (GTA) Offshore gas will start in mid-2025, same period. Compared to the same Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65) a 68.0 boosting exports and supporting domes- period in 2023, industrial production Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85) Gini index a 32.0 tic power generation. The expansion in witnessed a solid start in the first School enrollment, primary (% gross) b 86.7 iron ore production and transformation quarter of 2024 (+11.5 percent), thanks b 64.7 will support the narrowing of the current to strong mining, manufacturing, and Life expectancy at birth, years account deficit (CAD) and further boost construction activities. Private demand Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e) 14.9 growth. Post-election policies are expect- was strong thanks to increases in elec- Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data. ed to focus on supporting growth while tricity and fuel consumption. Inflation a/ Most recent value (2019), 2017 PPPs. b/ WDI for School enrollment (2020); Life expectancy maintaining fiscal discipline and building continued its downward trend, driven (2022). the prerequisites for a diversified, re- by tighter monetary policy and lower silient, and inclusive economy. food and oil prices. It reached 3 percent Ambitious reforms will be needed in (y/y) in July 2024, compared to 4 per- building, using, and protecting human cent (y/y) in July 2023. This downward Growth is expected to remain robust in capital, improving the efficiency of trend is expected to continue through public investments and the overall 2024 to reach an annual average infla- 2024 after a strong performance in quality of infrastructure, boosting pro- tion of 2.7 percent (y/y). 2023. The fiscal and external positions ductivity and innovation, increasing A decline of 2.0 percent in real per capita are projected to improve. Monetary poli- female labor participation and job value-added in the agricultural sector is cy tightening and lower food and energy quality, strengthening the business cli- expected to slightly increase the poverty mate and strengthening governance rate (at US$3.65-a-day) in rural areas, prices supported inflation easing in and resilience to climate shocks. from 41.6 percent in 2023 to 41.9 percent mid-2024. The poverty headcount rate Poverty reduction remains dependent in 2024. Conversely, this poverty rate is (US$3.65-a-day) is expected to decline on agricultural activities and sensitive expected to decline in urban areas from to 27.4 percent in 2024. The outlook is to inflation. Indeed, the last 2019 13.7 percent to 12.0 percent, in line with subject to downside risks stemming household survey suggests that agri- higher real per capita value-added in in- cultural activities and food products dustrial (+4.7 percent) and services activ- from delayed gas production, climate represent 45 and 57 percent of the ities (+5.6 percent). As a result, poverty change and regional insecurity. total income and consumption of the is expected to decrease slightly from 28.1 poor, respectively. percent to 27.4 percent despite inflation
FIGURE 1 Mauritania / Evolution of main macroeconomic FIGURE 2 Mauritania / Actual and projected poverty rates indicators and real GDP per capita
Percent Percent of GDP Poverty rate (%) Real GDP per capita (constant LCU) 10 -6 80 100000 8 70 90000 -8 80000 6 60 -10 70000 4 50 60000 -12 2 40 50000 -14 30 40000 0 30000 -16 20 -2 20000 10 10000 -4 -18 2021 2022 2023e 2024p 2025p 2026p 0 0 GDP growth (lhs) 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Primary fiscal balance (lhs) International poverty rate Lower middle-income pov. rate Current account balance (rhs) Upper middle-income pov. rate Real GDP pc
Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.
MPO 1 Oct 24 being halved, to 2.7 percent. Poverty inci- The Central Bank of Mauritania main- The US$3.65-a-day poverty rate is expected dence slowly recovered its downward tra- tained a tight monetary policy and con- to fall to 26.9 and 25.9 percent in 2025 and jectory in 2024, after rising post-COVID. tinued to absorb substantial liquidity. The 2026 respectively, in line with lower infla- Over the first six months of 2024, the fiscal Ouguiya depreciated by 0.9 percent tion and higher value-added per capita balance registered a surplus of 0.3 percent against the dollar (as of end-July) with growth in all sectors. Similarly, poverty is of GDP, compared to a deficit of 0.9 per- the introduction of the new foreign ex- expected to decline in urban and rural areas cent of GDP over the same period in 2023, change platform in December 2023. The in 2025 to 11.5 and 41.3 percent, respectively. and to a deficit of 2.4 percent over the full financial sector remained sound with This decline should continue in 2026. year 2023. This surplus was driven by a strengthened regulations. The fiscal deficit will narrow to an av- combination of higher tax revenues, lower erage of 1 percent of GDP in 2025-2026, current transfers, and lower spending on supported by higher revenue mobiliza- goods and services. Debt-to-GDP ratio fell tion, lower energy subsidies, and lower to 47.2 percent of GDP in 2023 and is ex- Outlook current transfers. Budgetary pressures pected to further decrease in 2024. External from the government’s ambitious public debt remains sustainable, and the risk of Growth will pick up in 2025-2026, aver- investment program remain. debt distress is moderate. aging 7.6 percent (4.8 percent per capita) Risks to the outlook remain elevated. A The CAD improved to 9.1 percent of supported by the start of gas production slowdown in FDI inflows due to a delay GDP in 2023, reflecting lower imports of and exports, higher public investments, an in the second and third phases of the capital goods, oil, and food. The trade improved net external position, and sus- GTA project, and a slowdown in the main balance improved further in the first half tained private demand. The industrial sec- trading partners’ growth, would weigh of 2024, supported by lower food im- tor and services will remain the main dri- on medium-term growth, fiscal and ex- ports, lower imports in the extractive in- vers of the real GDP growth on the supply ternal prospects. Mauritania is also ex- dustry, and higher exports of fish and side. Average inflation is projected to stabi- posed to various climatic shocks such as iron ore. The CAD, projected at 7.9 per- lize around 2 percent with lower food and drought and floods, which affect human cent of GDP for 2024, will be financed oil prices. The CAD is projected to aver- capital, household incomes, and agricul- mostly by Foreign Direct Investments age 8 percent of GDP with gas exports and tural production. Regional insecurity in (FDI) in the extractive industry. lower imports in the extractive industry. the Sahel remains a risk.
