S.

5 M1 Quiz 6 Class________ ( )

Probability Distribution, Expectation and Variance Name:______________________

1. In a session of a quiz competition, each participant has to answer 3 questions related to different aspects.
It is known that the probabilities for Stella to answer questions 1, 2 and 3 correctly are 0.2, 0.4 and 0.5
respectively. Let X be the number of questions answered by Stella correctly.
a) Represent the probability distribution of X by a table.
b) For each question, if the participant answers correctly, 20 points will be awarded; otherwise, 10
points will be deducted.
i) Find the expectation and standard deviation of the score got by Stella in this session.
(Give your answers correct to 3 significant figures if necessary.)
ii) Stella now gets a trump card and this card offers her one of the following options to
be applied to all questions in this session.
I) Double the points awarded when answering a question correctly; or
II) No points will be deducted when answering a question incorrectly.
Which option do you recommend Stella to choose? Explain your answer.

Solution:

(a) The possible values of X are 0, 1, 2 and 3.

P( X  0)  (1  0.2)  (1  0.4)  (1  0.5)
 0.24
P( X  1)  0.2  (1  0.4)  (1  0.5)  (1  0.2)  0.4  (1  0.5)
 (1  0.2)  (1  0.4)  0.5
 0.46
P( X  2)  0.2  0.4  (1  0.5)  0.2  (1  0.4)  0.5  (1  0.2)  0.4  0.5
 0.26
P( X  3)  0.2  0.4  0.5
 0.04
 The probability distribution of X is as follows.
x 0 1 2 3
P( X  x) 0.24 0.46 0.26 0.04
(b) (i) Let S points be the score got by Stella in this session,
then S  20 X  (10)(3  X ), i.e. S  30 X  30.
E( X )  0  0.24  1 0.46  2  0.26  3  0.04
 1.1
Var( X )  02  0.24  12  0.46  2 2  0.26  32  0.04  1.12
 0.65
E( S )  E(30 X  30)
 30 1.1  30
3
Var( S )  Var(30 X  30)
 302  0.65
 585
Var( S )  585
 24.2 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)
 The expectation and standard deviation of the score got by Stella
in this session are 3 points and 24.2 points respectively.

(ii) Let S1 points be the score got by Stella if she chooses option I,
then S1  40 X  (10)(3  X ), i.e. S1  50 X  30.
E( S1 )  E(50 X  30)
 50  1.1  30
 25

Let S2 points be the score got by Stella if she chooses option II,
then S2  20 X .
E( S2 )  E(20 X )
 20 1.1
 22
 25
 Option I is recommended to be chosen.
2. There are 10 magazines on the bookshelf of a convenience store. Six of them are sold at $15 each, three
of them are sold at $25 each and one of them is sold at $38. Peter takes 3 magazines from the bookshelf
randomly.
a) Let $X be the amount paid by Peter for the magazines taken. Represent the probability
distribution of X by a table.
b) Each customer will be given a stamp for every $20 purchase from the convenience store. For
example, if a customer makes a purchase of $50, 2 stamps will be given.
i) Find the expectation and variance of the number of stamps got by Peter in a purchase of
3 magazines. (Give your answers correct to 3 significant figures.)
ii) If Peter gets less than 3 stamps in the purchase, he will buy one more magazine
randomly. Find the probability that he takes an extra magazine of price $15.

Solution:

(a) The possible values of X are 45, 55, 65, 68, 75, 78 and 88.
P( X  45)  P {($15, $15, $15)} P( X  55)  P {($15, $15, $25)}
C36 C26C13
 
C310 C310
1 3
 
6 8
P( X  65)  P {($15, $25, $25)} P( X  68)  P {($15, $15, $38)}
C16C23 C26C11
 
C310 C310
3 1
 
20 8
P( X  75)  P {($25, $25, $25)} P( X  78)  P {($15, $25, $38)}
C33 C16C13C11
 
C310 C310
1 3
 
120 20
P( X  88)  P {($25, $25, $38)}
C23C11

C310
1

40
 The probability distribution of X is as follows.
x 45 55 65 68 75 78 88
1 3 3 1 1 3 1
P( X  x)
6 8 20 8 120 20 40
(b) (i) Let S be the number of stamps got by Peter in a purchase of 3 magazines,
then the possible values of S are 2, 3 and 4.
P( S  2)  P( X  45)  P( X  55)
1 3
 
6 8
13

24
P( S  3)  P( X  65)  P( X  68)  P( X  75)  P( X  78)
3 1 1 3
   
20 8 120 20
13

30
P ( S  4)  P ( X  88)
1

40
13 13 1
E( S )  2   3  4 
24 30 40
149

60
 2.48 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)
2
13 13 1  149 
Var( S )  2   32   42   
2

24 30 40  60 
 0.300 (cor. to 3 sig. fig.)

 The expectation and variance of the number of stamps got by Peter

in a purchase of 3 magazines are 2.48 and 0.300 respectively.

(ii) Required probability  P( X  45) P (Magazine of price $15 | X  45)

 P( X  55) P (Magazine of price $15 | X  55)
1 3 3 4
   
6 7 8 7
2

7