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Using Physics-based Models to Develop Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets

Using Physics-based Models to Develop Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets

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Ammar Hrz
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3 views

Using Physics-based Models to Develop Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets

Using Physics-based Models to Develop Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets

Uploaded by

Ammar Hrz
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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WHITE PAPER

UNCONVENTIONALS

Using Physics-based Models to


Develop Production Forecasts
in Unconventional Assets

W W W. DATAG R AT I O N .C O M
PetroVisor’s completion optimization workflow uses physics-based modeling to
optimize completion designs in unconventional formations. Empirical methods
may be sufficient if the completion design, including lateral spacings, are within
the observed data set. However, a physics-based approach to oil and gas modeling
produces superior results when evaluating wells with unknown or unfamiliar lateral
spacings, new completion designs or when robust data is not available.

Physics-based modeling can:


• Address transient and bounded multi-phase flow and wellbore hydraulics
in horizontal wells with many frac stages and various drainage area sizes
• Efficiently model thousands of completion designs
• Address uncertainty resulting from non-unique history matches
• Quickly produce critical data for operator and investor decisions
• Execute from the cloud or on premise with the appropriate software and
computing power

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 2


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
The Benefits of
Physics-based Models
Arps decline curve analysis techniques are commonly used for deriving
production forecasts. However, Arps equations do not include physics
and can often lead to overly optimistic production forecasts. Engineers
have struggled to utilize physics-based models when modeling completion
designs because models run slow and require extensive manual data
manipulation. The PetroVisor solution is a seamless process where
automated tasks and accurate physics-based proxy models are employed
to deliver results in time frames useful for investment decision.

The automated physics-based modeling in the PetroVisor platform sources


many inputs from the data analytics module and delivers ready-to-use
production forecasts for a matrix of completion designs.

The PetroVisor completion optimization workflow evaluates a wide range


of completion options and uses economic analysis to determine optimal
and near-optimal designs. The process allows input from the operations
team at an early stage giving multiple stakeholders ownership in the
overall optimization strategy.

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 3


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
Understanding the Workflow
The PetroVisor workflow includes a fracture propagation model and a reservoir fluid flow model. The fracture
propagation model computes the fracture geometry dimensions based on rock properties and completion design.
The reservoir fluid flow model forecasts monthly production volumes based on the fracture geometry and reservoir
properties. Both models are calibrated to existing wells in the area of interest with a history-matching phase. The
fracture propagation model is calibrated to match fracturing pressures and injection rates for a given set of rock
mechanical properties and the reservoir flow model is calibrated to match production data given the calibrated
fracture geometry and reservoir flow properties. This iterative process does not require expert human intervention.

Once calibrated, the models are used to simulate a wide range of completion designs,
imposing physics on each. Physics-related data explicitly input with the models include:
• Rock mechanical properties
• Drainage area
• Reservoir fluid properties
• Reservoir fluid flow properties including pressure-dependent permeability
• User-defined surface flow pressures that change over time
• Wellbore hydraulics

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 4


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
Reservoir Pressure After 3 Months

Calibrated models are used to forecast production for a matrix of completion options, often simulating
thousands or tens of thousands of potential designs. A 40-year monthly production forecast is generated for
each design for use in the follow-on economic optimization. Parameters that are varied in these models include:
• Lateral length and spacing
• Fluid and sand intensity
• Fracture injection rate
• Stage spacing and fracture entry points per stage (perforation clusters or sleeves)
• Reservoir permeability and landing zone

Typically, three to ten values are chosen


for each parameter and all permutations
are evaluated. Dashboards allow the user
to confirm that the simulations were
executed properly and quantify how field
flowing pressure constraints may impact
production volumes.

The physics-based modeling can be


completed within a two-week timeframe.
A complete workflow from data analytics
through development optimization can be
completed in 30 days.

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 5


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
Proxy Model for Faster Results

Physics-based modeling in the completion optimization workflow was


designed to suit the often-short timelines required for investment
decisions. To achieve fast modeling run times the PetroVisor workflow
uses proxy models, which are simplified physics-based models that
produce a close approximation to the production forecast generated
by a more complex full-wellbore model. The proxy models used in the
workflow leverage symmetry when analyzing horizontal completions,
model a portion of a single stage and scale up the results to a full wellbore
equivalent. This process treats the single stage as the average of all
stages in the well and typically delivers results within 5% of a complex
full-wellbore model.

Proxy model optimization does not prevent more complex full-wellbore or


multi-wellbore models from being used in future completion designs on
individual wells. More complex proxy models can also be used in highly-
engineered completions where each stage is modeled. In this situation,
run times will be longer but averaging within the wellbore can still be
conducted to find a viable proxy model.

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 6


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
Reducing Complexity for
Investment Decisions
While the prevailing mindset may be that more complex models deliver better answers, this
proven workflow provides a level of analysis that is usually not achievable in investment-decision
timelines. Adding unnecessary complexity to the modeling process can extend timelines past
required decision dates and result in using data that is out of date and not reflective of current
production parameters.

The PetroVisor completion optimization workflow accommodates physics-based modeling


to generate production forecasts for a wide variety of completion designs in unconventional
formations. An open and agnostic platform, use the simulator of your choice and integrate
emerging technologies. The result is a sound economic assessment, which considers a wide range
of technical variables. The workflow offers a marked improvement over computations based on
Arps decline curve equations or by running a limited number of physics-based forecasts. The
optimized completions are used to guide asset development, allowing both operator and investor
to make informed operational and financial decisions in short time frames.

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 7


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
Summary

PetroVisor’s completion optimization workflow uses physics-


based modeling to optimize completion designs in unconventional
formations. When evaluating new completion designs, wells with
unknown or unfamiliar lateral spacings or when robust data is
not available, a physics-based approach to oil and gas modeling
produces superior results. PetroVisor offers an improvement over
conventional computations based on Arps decline curve equations
or by running a limited number of physics-based forecasts. The
resulting completion design provides parameters such as lateral
length and spacing that are used in creating the drilling schedule
and as inputs to full asset evaluation and development.

Using Physics-based Models to Develop 8


Production Forecasts in Unconventional Assets
www.datagration.com

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