Unit-I Probability and Random Variables
Unit-I Probability and Random Variables
Topic-1- Probability
Introduction: Probability is one of the main branches of mathematics, the concepts of
probability are useful in many fields such as insurance, biological sciences, engineering and
physics. Probability is the study of predictions and uncertainty things. The word probability
means ‘chance’.
Ex: Tossing a coin, rolling a dice, picking a card from a pack of 52 cards.
Ex: Tossing a coin, rolling a dice, picking a card from a pack of 52 cards.
Sample Space: The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. It is
represented by ‘S’
Where ‘H’ denotes that the coin lands ‘Heads up’ and ‘T’ denotes that the coin lands ‘Tails
up’ for a fair coin we expect ‘H’ and ‘T’ have same chance of occurring. The probability of
‘H’ occurring is 0.5 and the probability of ‘T’ occurring is 0.5.
Ex 2: when we roll a die then the sample space is S= { 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ,6 }, the probability that
1
the die lands with ‘k’ up is where k = 1,2,3,4,5,6
6
1 1 1 1
The probability that the die lands with an even number is + + =
6 6 6 2
Permutation: The number of permutations of ‘r’ objects selecting from a set of ‘n’
n!
different objects is called a permutation it is denoted by n P where n P = ,r≤n
r r
( n−r ) !
Combination: The number of Combinations of ‘r’ objects selecting from a set of ‘n’
n!
different objects is called a Combination, it is denoted bynC where nC =
r r
( n−r ) ! r !
m
P ( E )=
n this is also known a probability of success of an event.
n−m
Similarly, the probability of failure of an even ‘E’ is defined as P ( E )=
c
n
⇒
m
❑ 1−
n
⇒
❑ P ( E ) =1−P ( E )
c
⇒
❑ P ( E ) + P ( E ) =1
c
(i). 0 ≤ p (E)≤ 1
n
(ii). ∑ P ( E i) =1
i=1
(iii). P ( E1 ∪ E2 )=P ( E1 ) + P ( E 1)
Diamond, Heart are red in color and club, spade are black in color, i.e, 26 are red color
cards and 26 are black color cards.
Ex 1: What is the probability of drawing a king card from a well shuffled pack of 52
cards?
We can select one king card from a pack of 52 cards in 52C ways 1
⇒
4C 1
❑ The probability of choosing one king card is 52 = 13
1
C 1
Ex 2: If 3 coins are tossed or a fair coin is tossed thrice then find the probability of
getting
In the random experiment of tossing a coin three times, the total number of events are
3
2 =8
The sample space S= { HHH , HHT , HTT , TTT , TTH , THH , HTH , THT }
Ex 3: Three cards are selected at random from a pack of 52 well shuffled cards, then find
the probability of getting
In the random experiment of selecting 3 cards from a pack of 52 cards, the total number
of outcomes are 52C 3
⇒
❑ the favorable events for getting 3 spade cards = 13C 3
⇒ 13C
❑ P ( A)= 3
52C 3
⇒
13 x 12 x 11
❑ =0.0458
52 x 51 x 50
(ii). let ‘B’ be the event of selecting 2 spade and 1 Diamond cards
⇒
❑ the favorable events for getting 2 spade and 1 Diamond cards = 13C X 13C
2 1
⇒ 13C X 13C
❑ P ( B )= 2 1
52C 3
13 x 12 x 13
⇒
1x 2
❑ =0.0458
52 x 51 x 50
1x 2x 3
(iii). let ‘C’ be the event of selecting 1 spade and 1 Diamond and 1 Heart cards
⇒
❑ the favorable events for getting 1 spade and 1 Diamond and 1 Heart cards =
52C 3
⇒
13 x 13 x 13 x 1 x 2 x 3
❑ =0.0994
52 x 51 x 50
Ex 4: what is the probability of getting the sum is ‘8’ in a single task of pair of fair dice?
⇒ 5
❑ the probability of getting the sum 8 = 36
Ex 5: what is the probability for a leap year to have 52 Mondays and 53 Sundays?
⇒
❑52 weeks and 2 days
Tuesday, Wednesday
Wednesday, Thursday
Thursday, Friday
Friday, Saturday
Saturday, Sunday
Sunday, Monday
The favorable cases for a leap year to have 52 Monday and 53 Sundays =1
⇒
Total number of students in the class = 10 Boys + 5 Girls ❑ 15
Let ‘B’ the event of selecting at least 3 girls, this may be 3 girls, 1 boy or 4 girls
5C X 10 C +5 C
The favorable events to form a committee of at least 3 girls =
3 1 4
15C 4
Ex 7: 6 boys and 6 girls sit in a row at random, what is the probability that (i). 6 girls sit
together (ii). 1 boy and 1 girl sit together.
⇒
The total number of students in the class = 6 boys + 6 girls❑ 12
(i). if we treat all 6 girls as one unit then the total number of students = 1 unit of girls + 6
⇒
boys ❑ 7
⇒ 7!
❑ the probability of sitting all 6 girls together = 12!
⇒
❑ BGBGBGBGBGBG∧GBGBGBGBGBGBG
We can arrange 6 girls among themselves in 6! Ways and 6 boys among themselves in 6!
Ways
⇒ 2x 6! x6!
❑the probability of sitting boy and girl together = 12!
Ex 8: what is the probability that ‘4s’ letters appear consequently in the word
‘MISSISSIPPI’ assuming that the letters are arranged at random.
⇒ 11!
❑the total number of possible outcomes are 1! x 4 ! x 4 ! x 2!
If we treat all ‘4s’ letters as one unit, then the total number of letters are 1 unit of ‘4s’,
M-1, I-4, P-2
⇒ 8!
❑ the favorable events for the occurrences of all ‘4s’letters consequently = 1! x 4 ! x 2!
⇒ 8! 11!
❑ the required probability is 1! x 4 ! x 2! / 1! x 4 ! x 4 ! x 2!
Mutually Exclusive Events: any two events A, B are said to be mutually exclusive events
if A ∩ B=∅
Ex : In the random experiment of tossing a coin head and tail are mutually exclusive
Probability Addition Theorem: If A,B are any two events of random experiments having
sample space ‘S’ then probability addition theorem states that
P ( A ∪ B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A ∩ B)
Ex 9: what is the probability that a card drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards to be a
king or queen?
let ‘A’ be the event of getting a king card and ‘B’ be the event of getting a queen card
⇒ 4C
❑ P ( A)= 1
52C 1
4C
P ( B )= 1
52C 1
⇒
4C
❑ by probability addition theorem the probability of getting a king or queen card is 52
1
C 1
4C ⇒
2
+
1
❑
52C 1
13
Conditional Event: let A, B are any two events of a random experiment and if the event
‘A’ occurs after the occurrence of an event ‘B’ then event ‘A’ is said to be conditional
A
event given by ‘B’ it is represented by
B
Conditional Probability: let A, B are any two events of a random experiment such that
Independent Events: Any two events A, B are said to be independent events if the
occurrence or non-occurrence of an event ‘A’ is not affected by the occurrence or non-
occurrence of an event ‘B’
Note: If A,B are any two independent events then P ( BA )=P ( A )∧P ( BA )=P ( B )
Probability Multiplication Theorem: If A, B are any two events of a random experiment
B
then probability multiplication theorem states that P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) . P( )
A
Note: If A,B are any two independent events then probability multiplication theorem
P ( A ∩B )=P ( A ) . P(B)
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
C C
A B A B
(i). P (ii). P (iii). P C (iv).
P C
B A B A
We know that P ( )
A P( A ∩ B)
B
=
P(B)
⇒ 1/4
❑ 1/2 ( P ( B )=1−P ( B ) ¿
C
⇒
❑ ½
( )P( A C ∩ BC )
C
A
(iii). We know that P C = C
B P(B )
⇒ 5 1 1
❑ P ( A ∪ B )= 8 + 2 − 4
⇒ 7
❑ P ( A ∪ B )= 8
We have P ( A C ∩B C )=1−P ( A ∪ B )
⇒
7 1
❑ 1− =
8 8
( )
C
A 8 1
P C = =
B 1 4
2
( ) P( A C ∩ BC )
C
B
(iv). We know that P C
= C
A P (A )
1
( )
C
⇒
B 8 1
❑P C = =
A 3 3
8
Ex 11: In a certain town 40% have brown hair and 25% have brown eyes and 15% have
both brown hair and brown eyes. If a person is selected at random from the town then
find the probability that (i). If he has brown hair, what is the probability that he brown
eyes also (ii). If he has brown eyes, then determine the probability that he does not have
brown hair.
Let ‘A’ be the event of having brown hair and ‘B’ be the event of having brown eyes.
2
Given that P ( A )=40 %=
5
1
P ( B )=25 %=
4
3
P ( A ∩B )=15 %=
20
(i). Probability of a person having brown hair, as well as brown eyes also
( BA )= P(PA(A∩)B)
⇒
❑P
3
⇒
20 3
❑ =
2 8
5
(ii). Probability of a person having brown eyes, doesn’t have brown hair
( )
c
⇒
A
c
P (A ∩ B)
❑P =
B P (B)
( )
c
⇒
A 10 2
❑P = =
B 1 5
4
( EA )= P ( E ) . P P (Ek ∩ A )
⇒
k
❑P
1
( EA )+ P ( E ). P ( EA ) … … … … P ( E ) . P ( EA )
1
2
2
n
n
Ex 12: In a certain college 25% of boys and 10% if girls are studying mathematics, the
girls constitute 60% of the student’s body, then
(ii). If a student is selected at random and is found to be studying mathematics, find the
probability that the student is a girl
(iii). If a student is selected at random and is found to be studying mathematics, find the
probability that the student is a boy.
Let ‘B’ and ‘G’ be the events of boys and girls respectively.
3 2
Given that P ( G )=60 %= and P ( B )=40 %=
5 5
3 1
x
⇒
5 10
❑
4 3
25 = 8 ¿
¿
(iii). If a student is selected at random and is found to be studying mathematics, the
20
Given that P ( A )=
100
20
P ( B )=
100
50
P (C)=
100
Let ‘D’ be the event of defective, by the given data we have P ( DA )= 1006
P ( DB )= 1003
P ( DC )= 1002
(i). By the totalprobability we have the probability of defective
P ( D )=P ( A ) . P
D
A( )
+ P( B) . P ( )
D
B ( )
+ P (C ) . P
D
C
⇒
20 6 30 3 50 2
❑ X + X + X
100 100 100 100 100 100
⇒
31
❑
1000
machine ‘A’ = P
A
D ( )
P ( A ) x P ( )+ P ( B ) x P ( )+ P ( C ) x P ( )
D D D D
A B C
20 6
X
⇒
100 100 12
❑ =
20 6 30 3 50 2 31
X + X + X
100 100 100 100 100 100
machine ‘B’ = P
B
D ( )
P ( A ) x P ( )+ P ( B ) x P ( )+ P ( C ) x P ( )
D D D D
A B C
30 3
X
⇒
100 100 9
❑ =
20 6 30 3 50 2 31
X + X + X
100 100 100 100 100 100
machine ‘C’ = P
C
D ( )
By baye’s theorem we have P ( )=
C ( C)
D
P (C ) x P
P ( A ) x P ( )+ P ( B ) x P ( )+ P ( C ) x P ( )
D D D D
A B C
50 2
X
⇒
100 100 10
❑ =
20 6 30 3 50 2 31
X + X + X
100 100 100 100 100 100
***
→
Definition: Random variable is function which is defined by X : S❑ R, where ‘S’ is the
sample space and ‘R’ is the Real Number Set.
Generally, we represent random variables by ‘X’ and the values assigned to random
variables by small letters of English alphabet or numerical values (positive integers).
Discrete Random Variable: The random variable ‘X’ having sample space ‘S’ is said to be
discrete random variable if takes finite number of values with in the given range.
Ex: In the random experiment of tossing a coin twice, the random variable which is
defined as number of heads occurred in that experiment is known as discrete random
variable.
Discrete Probability Distribution: If the random variable ‘X’ takes finite number of values
discrete probability distribution is the set of values ' x i ' together with corresponding
probabilities ' pi '
(i). p ( x i ) ≥ 0
n
(ii). ∑ p ( x i )=1
i=1
d
(iii). { F ( x ) } =f ( x )
dx
Mean or Expectation or Expected value: : If the random variable ‘X’ takes finite number
of values x 1 , x 2 , x 3 … … … x n and the corresponding probabilities are p1 , p2 , p3 … … … pn
then the mean or expectation or expected value of a discrete random variable ‘X’ is
defined as μ=E ( x ) =p 1 x 1+ p 2 x 2 + p 3 x 3 +… … … … pn x n
⇒ n
❑ μ=E ( x )=∑ pi xi
i=1
⇒ n
❑ σ 2=∑ pi x i2 −μ 2
i=1
⇒ 2
❑ σ =E ( x )− { E (x) }
2 2
Standard Deviation: The positive square root of a discrete random variable is known as
standard deviation
√∑
⇒ n
❑ σ= pi xi2−μ 2
i=1
P(x) 0 k K 2K 3K k
2 2
7k +k
Then find (i). Value of ‘K’ (ii). Evaluate P ( X <6 ) , P( X ≥ 6) (iii). P ( 0< X < 5 )
n
We know that ∑ P ( x i )=1
i=1
⇒
2 2
❑ 0+k + k+ 2 k +3 k + K +7 k + K =1
⇒
2
❑ 8 k + 8 K−1=0
⇒
❑ k=0.1 ,−1.11
⇒
❑ k=0.1 (Probability should be always positive)
(ii). P ( X <6 )= p ( 1 )+ p ( 2 )+ p ( 3 ) + p ( 4 ) + p ( 5 )
⇒
❑ 0+k + k+ 2 k +3 k
⇒
❑ 7 k=7 ( 0.1 ) =0.7
P ( X ≥6 )= p ( 6 ) + p ( 7 )
⇒
2 2
❑ K +7 k + K
⇒
2
❑ 8 K + K =0.18
Ex 2: If ‘X’ denotes the number of heads occur in a single toss of 4 fair coins. Then
determine (i). P ( X <2 ) (ii). P ( 1< X ≤3 )
In the random experiment of tossing a fair coin by 4 times, we have total number of possible
outcomes are 24 =16
⇒
❑ the required probability distribution is
X 0 1 2 3 4
1 4 5
(i). P ( X <2 ) = + =
16 16 16
6 4 5
(ii). P ( 1< X ≤3 )= + =
16 16 8
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P(x) k 2K 2K 3K k
2
2k 2 2
7k +k
Then determine (i). value of ‘k’ (ii). Evaluate P ( X <6 ) , P( X ≥ 6) (iii). P ( 0< X < 5 )
⇒
2
❑ 10 k + 9 K −1=0
⇒
❑ 0.1,−1
(ii). P ( X <6 )= p ( 1 )+ p ( 2 )+ p ( 3 ) + p ( 4 ) + p ( 5 )
⇒
2
❑ k +2 k +2 k +3 k + K
⇒
2
❑ K +8 k=0.81
P ( X ≥6 )= p ( 6 ) + p ( 7 )
⇒
2 2
❑ 2 K +7 k + K
⇒
2
❑ 9 K + K =0.19
⇒
❑ 1 ( k )+2 ( 2 k ) +3 ( 2 k ) + 4 ( 3 k ) +5 ( k )+ 6 ( 2 K ) +7 ¿)
2 2
⇒
❑ 1 ( 0.1 ) +2 ( 0.2 ) +3 ( 0.2 ) +4 ( 0.3 ) +5 ( 0.01 ) +6 ( 0.02 ) +7 ( 0.17 )
⇒
❑ μ=3.66
n
(v). We know that variance of the distribution isσ =∑ pi x i −μ
2 2 2
i=1
⇒
2 2
❑ σ =0.1 ( 1 ) +0.2 ( 4 )+ 0.2 ( 9 ) +0.3 ( 16 ) +0.01 ( 25 ) +0.02 ( 36 )+ 0.17 ( 49 ) −( 3.66 )
⇒
2
❑ σ =3.404
xi F (x i)
1 K=0.1
2 3 K=0.3
3 5 K=0.5
4 8 K=0.8
2
5 K +8 k =0.81
2
6 3 K +8 k =0.83
2
7 10 K +9 k =1
Note 1. If ‘X’ is a discrete random variable and ‘K’ is any constant then E ( X + K )=E ( X ) + K
2. If ‘X’ is a discrete random variable and ‘a,b’ are any two constant then
E ( aX + b )=aE ( X ) +b
***
Ex: Height of the students between 5 feet to 6 feet, weight of the students between 50kgs to
60kgs.
Probability density function: let f ( x ) be a function where ‘x’ is the continuous random
b
variable, then the probability of the variable in the interval ( a , b ) is defined by ∫ f ( x ) dx her
x=a
(i). if f ( x ) ≥ 0
∞
(ii). ∫ f ( x ) dx=1
x=−∞
d
(iii). { F ( x ) } =f ( x )
dx
Mean or Expectation of a Continuous Random Variable: The mean or expectation of a
∞
‘X’ is defined as σ =
2
∫ 2
x . f ( x ) dx−μ
2
x=−∞
⇒ 2
❑ σ =E ( x )− { E (x) }
2 2
Median: Median of the continuous random variable ‘x’ is a point which divides the total
distribution into two equal parts.
If x ∈ ( a , b ) and ‘M’ is the median of the random variable ‘X’ then it is obtained by solving
M b 1
f ( x ) dx= ¿
∫ f ( x ) dx= ∫ 2
x=a x= M
¿
Mode: Mode of a continuous random variable ‘X’ is a value of ‘x’ for which f ( x ) is
maximum.
¿0, x≤0
Then find the probability that it will take on a value (i). between 1 and 3 (ii). p ( x> 0.5 )
3
3
⇒
❑∫ 2 e
−2 x
. dx
1
(2)
⇒ −2 x 3
e
❑−2
1
⇒
−2 x 3
❑−( e 1)
⇒
−2 −6
❑ e −e
∞
∞
⇒
❑∫ 2 e
−2 x
. dx
0.5
(2)
⇒ −2 x ∞
e
❑−2
0.5
⇒
−2 x ∞
❑−( e )
0.5
⇒
−1 1
❑e =
e
¿ 0 , otherwise
Then find (i). value of ‘k’ (ii). p ( 0.1< x <0.2 ) (iii). P ( x> 0.5 )
∞
0 1 ∞
⇒
❑ ∫ f ( x ) . dx ∫ f ( x ) . dx +∫ f ( x ) . dx=1
−∞ 0 1
1
⇒
❑∫ k ( 1−x ) . dx =1
2
0
( )
⇒ 3 1
x
❑ k x− =1
3 0
⇒
3
❑ k=
2
0.2
0.2
⇒
❑ ∫ k ( 1−x ) dx
2
0.1
0.2
⇒
3
❑ ∫ ( 1−x ) dx
2
0.1 2
( )
3 1
⇒
3 x
❑ x−
2 3 0
= 0.14
∞
1
⇒
❑ ∫ k ( 1−x ) dx
2
0.5
1
⇒
3
❑ ∫ ( 1−x ) dx
2
0.5 2
( )
3 1
⇒
3 x
❑ x−
2 3 0.5
= 0.34
1
f ( x )= sinx where 0 ≤ x ≤ π
2
¿ 0 , otherwise
(
Then find the (i). Mean (ii). Median (iii). Mode of the distribution (iv). P 0 < x<
π
2 )
∞
(i). we know that mean of the continuous random variable ‘X’ is μ=E ( x ) = ∫ x . f ( x ) dx
x=−∞
0 π ∞
⇒
❑ μ= ∫ x . f ( x ) dx +∫ x . f ( x ) dx+∫ x . f ( x ) dx
x=−∞ 0 π
π
⇒
❑ μ=∫ x . f ( x ) dx
0
π
⇒
x
❑ μ=∫ . sinx dx
0 2
⇒ π
❑μ = 2
(ii). We know that median ‘M’ is the point which divides the total distribution into two equal
M π
1
parts it is obtained by solving ∫ f ( x ) dx=∫ f ( x ) dx =
0 M 2
⇒
M 1
❑∫ f ( x ) dx= 2 ¿
0
¿
⇒ 1M 1
❑∫ 2 sinx dx= 2 ¿
0
¿
M 1 1
⇒
❑∫ 2 sinx dx= 2 ¿
0
¿
⇒
M
❑ (−cosx )0 =1
⇒
❑ (−cosM +1 )=1
⇒
❑−cosM =0
⇒
π
❑ Median M =
2
(iii). We know that Mode of a continuous random variable ‘X’ is a value of ‘x’ for which
f ( x ) is maximum.
1
We have f ( x )= . sinx
2
Take f ( x )' =0
⇒
1
❑ . cos x=0
2
⇒
❑ cos x=0
⇒
π
❑ Mode of the continuous random variable is x=
2
π
2
( )
(iv).we know that P 0 < x< π =❑∫ f ( x ) dx
⇒
2 0
π
2
⇒
1
❑∫ . sinx dx
0 2
⇒
1 π
❑ ( ) 2
2 cosx 0
⇒
1
❑
2
Note 1: if ‘X’ is a continuous random variable and y=ax+ b , then E ( y )=a E ( x ) +b where a ,
b are constants.
***