Chapter # 8

 Introduction

Arab Spring Consequences:

 Triggered wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Libya, attracting international

intervention and causing state disintegration and refugee crises.
 Empowered extremist movements.
 Reduced influence of traditional powers like Egypt and Syria.
 Increased intervention by Iran, Turkey, and Gulf states.
 Rise of nonstate actors like the Muslim Brotherhood and ISIS.
 US-led coalition negotiated the Iran nuclear deal; later, the US withdrew.
 Arab states collaborated with Israel against Iran despite stalled Palestinian-Israeli
peace process.

Historical Patterns of Turmoil:

 1950s Arab Cold War: Popular protests, coups, pan-Arabism, Egypt-Syria

merger, and Egyptian intervention in Yemen.
 1979 Iranian Revolution: Disrupted US alliances, inspired regional revolutions,
and led to the Iran-Iraq War.
 Post-Cold War: Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, Arab-Israeli peace process, and US
military presence in the Gulf.
 2000s: US invasion of Iraq, Israel-Hezbollah war, increasing sectarianism, and
Israeli-Gulf alignment against Iran.

Stability and Continuity:

 Persistent Palestinian issue since 1948.

 Long-term Egypt-Israel peace.
 US dominance in the Gulf and Levant since 1991.
 Ongoing Iran-Israel and Iran-Arab conflicts since 1979.
Theoretical Approaches:

 Realism: States are rational actors seeking power in a hostile environment.

 Regime Security: Leaders prioritize their survival against internal and external
threats.
 Political Economy: Focus on oil and state forms.
 Constructivism: Role of ideas, identity, and ideology (e.g., hostility toward Israel
and Iran shaped by identity).

Implications for Policy:

 Iran's Nuclear Program: Viewed through lenses of realism (regional power),

regime security (survival), or constructivism (ideological pursuit).
 Iraq's Wars: Explained by Saddam's ideology, power position, or regime survival
concerns.

Changing Alliances and Politics:

 Egypt and Israel: Transition from enemies to allies.

 Iran: Shifted from US ally to adversary.
 Arab Cold War: Arab nationalists vs. conservative states.
 Post-9/11: US-Saudi vs. Iran, resurgence of nuclear tensions, and conflicts post-
Arab uprisings.

 Conceptualizing the International Relations of the Middle

East
International relations theory posits that foreign policy and political outcomes are
influenced by both domestic politics and the international structure in which states
operate. In the Middle East, states compete for power, security, and ideological
influence in an anarchic environment. Leaders prioritize regime survival, adapting to
changing threats, hardened state structures, and evolving ideological stakes. The 2011
Arab Spring intensified these threats, leading to the fall of several rulers and civil wars,
highlighting the dynamic interplay between domestic and international factors in shaping
regional politics.

Anarchy and Regional Institutions

International relations theory begins with the concept of anarchy, defined as the
absence of a central authority to enforce agreements, making war always a possibility.
Realism argues that this anarchy compels states to prioritize their security and national
interests over ideology, morality, or domestic preferences. This often leads to a balance
of power, where states form alliances to protect themselves while maintaining
independence. The security dilemma is a key concept, highlighting how efforts to
increase security can provoke others to arm themselves, leading to increased insecurity
and potential conflict.

Variations in anarchy exist, influenced by the institutional environment, degree of

hierarchy, and surrounding culture. In regions with dense institutions, like the EU, war
becomes unlikely, and international politics resemble domestic politics. Constructivists
argue that the culture of anarchy affects the likelihood of war, with the Middle East
having weak international institutions, and autocratic governments.

The region's institutions, like the Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC),
have been largely ineffective in fostering economic or political integration or mediating
conflicts, as demonstrated by the GCC's failure to resolve the 2017 dispute among
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Thus, the Middle East continues to be characterized
by intense state-centric competition and mistrust.

International and Regional Orders

Embedded in a Wider International Environment

The Middle Eastern regional system, while formally anarchic, is deeply embedded in the
wider international environment due to its oil and geopolitical significance.

Leonard Binder described the region as a "subordinate regional system" influenced by

outside powers.
During the Cold War, the region was a crucial battleground for the Soviet Union and the
United States, preventing local conflicts from remaining isolated. For instance, Egypt's
decisions to engage in war with Israel in 1973 and later pursue peace were driven by a
desire to gain US support. Post-Cold War, the US emerged as the primary patron of
almost every Middle Eastern state, making it impossible to analyze the region's
international relations without considering the US's growing role.

Global and Local Dynamics

The relationship between global and regional dynamics in the Middle East is complex,
with local actors pursuing their interests within a global power framework. During the
Cold War, global perspectives often overshadowed local dynamics, leading to
misunderstandings. Similarly, the Arab Spring focused on internal issues, overlooking
the global system's influence, particularly the changing US role. US hegemony
previously provided security guarantees, mitigating the security dilemma. However, the
recent decline of US dominance and the rise of competitors like Russia have
reintroduced uncertainty and competition in the region.

World polarity and Historical Context

The international system's polarity, or the number of great powers, fundamentally

shapes regional dynamics. Before the Cold War, European multipolar struggles
influenced the Middle East. The Cold War brought a bipolar structure, with two
superpowers defining foreign policy possibilities. After the Soviet Union's collapse,
the US dominated in a unipolar system. However, since 2011, American primacy
has waned, and Russia and China have increased their roles, creating an ambiguous
system that is neither unipolar nor multipolar.

The Impact of Colonialism and Cold War

The Middle East's current international system is a product of colonialism and post-
World War I-events. European powers' competition, the decline of the Ottoman Empire,
and nationalist struggles against colonial rule shaped the region. The Cold War's
bipolarity meant regional states could maneuver between the US and Soviet blocs for
support.
Transition to Unipolarity and Recent Developments

The post-Cold War unipolarity forced Middle Eastern states to align with the US or face
isolation. The US expanded its military presence and oversaw the Arab-Israeli peace
process. However, post-9/11, the US shifted from preserving regional order to actively
changing it. The invasion of Iraq created a power vacuum, and the global war on terror
disrupted regional regimes.

By the Arab uprisings' onset, US dominance had faded due to its withdrawal from Iraq,
pursuit of a nuclear accord with Iran, and mixed responses to regional conflicts. The
global balance of power became uncertain, with rising Chinese influence and resurgent
Russian activities.

Elements of Power

Military and Economic Power

Traditionally, military capabilities are seen as the ultimate power source in

international affairs, but the Middle East reveals a more complex reality.

 Economic capabilities, especially oil, are critical.

 Ideological appeals and media platforms like Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabiya.
 Alignments with powerful transnational networks, such as Qatar and Turkey's ties
to the Muslim Brotherhood or Iran's relationship with Shi ‘a militias, also enhance
power.
 Relationships with external powers can boost local actors' influence, as seen with
Jordan and the United States.

Variability of Power Among Arab States

Almost no Arab state combines all aspects of potential national power.

 Egypt is large with a strong state but lacks oil and has lost economic stature and
ideological appeal.
 Saudi Arabia is wealthy but has a small population and weak military.
  Iraq has oil wealth and a sizable population but suffers from internal sectarian
struggles and powerful neighbors.
 Less powerful states like Jordan, Lebanon, and Yemen receive less attention as
they tend to follow rather than lead regional alliances and conflicts.

 Military Capabilities
Defining Great Powers

Realism identifies great powers by their military capabilities. Great powers possess the
material resources necessary for regional leadership, including size, population,
economic base, and military strength. The Persian Gulf, for instance, sees competition
between Iran and Iraq due to their power and proximity.

Military Power and Influence

Military power, though crucial, is not solely determined by size. Qatar and the UAE
project significant military power and influence through advanced militaries, wealth, and
media empires, surpassing expectations based on their small populations.

War and Militarization

The Middle East, perceived as war-prone, has historically seen conflicts around Israel
and Iraq. Post-2011 wars in Syria, Yemen, and Libya have affected regional politics.
The threat of war justifies political cultures dominated by national security,
perpetuating extensive security apparatuses and underdevelopment.

Economic factors

Oil and Political Economy

Oil plays a crucial role in the Middle East's balance of power and political structures.
The "oil curse" channels massive revenues into state security and patronage, hindering
economic diversification. This wealth also draws international interest due to the global
economy's dependence on petroleum.
Wealth and Influence

Wealth, especially from oil, enhances power by funding military capabilities and shaping
media and public discourse. Arab oil states use their wealth to influence politics, media,
and regional diplomacy. For example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar invest in media outlets
and support various political movements.

Vulnerabilities

Wealth rooted in oil also creates vulnerabilities, as seen in Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in
1990.

Ideology and Identity

Transnational Identity and Informal Norms

The Middle East compensates for its lack of formal international institutions with strong
transnational identities and informal norms. Relationships among long-serving autocrats
have historically created a stable, albeit anarchical, society. However, this has changed
with the recent rise of new leaders in key states.

Ideology as Soft Power

Ideology serves as a significant form of soft power in the region. States leverage public
opinion to pressure other leaders and present themselves as defenders of shared
causes, such as Palestine. While realists focus on material power, constructivists
highlight the importance of ideology in shaping regional dynamics.

Shared Identity and Media Influence

A common language and politically salient identity bind the Arab world, centering
political attention on shared concerns like Palestine. The rise of transnational media,
such as Al-Jazeera, has reinforced this shared identity, creating a robust transnational
public sphere that transcends state borders and shapes political discourse.
Defining Identity as Power

Identity plays a crucial role in regional politics. Defining identity by sectarianism,

religion, or Arab nationalism affects states' abilities to participate in regional
institutions. Israel, Iran, and Turkey face challenges in regional politics due to their
non-Arab identities, while shared Arab identity has driven significant political
movements and conflicts.

Identity and Ideological Conflicts

Arab states have historically used identity and ideology to gain power and legitimacy.
Examples include Egypt's ideological appeal despite military defeats and the PLO's
influence despite lacking a territorial state.

Competing Identities

Multiple identities compete within the region, including Arabist, nationalist, and
sectarian identities. The rise of sectarianism, particularly post-Iraq invasion and
Syrian civil war, has intensified regional power struggles. States like Iran, Saudi Arabia,
and Qatar mobilize sectarian identities to bolster their influence and support nonstate
actors.

Internal Identity Conflicts

Internal identity conflicts significantly impact regional politics. Countries like Jordan,
Iraq, and Israel face divisions based on ethnicity, religion, and national origins.
These internal conflicts contribute to the region's instability and shape international
behavior, highlighting the mismatch between state and nation as a key factor in
Middle Eastern conflicts.

State strength and Regime security

Cross-Border Interventions and State Strength

Intervention across borders has been a common practice in the Middle East, with
stronger powers engaging in proxy battles within weaker states. The "hardening" of
Arab states since 1970 reduced such meddling, but the 2011 Arab uprisings reopened
opportunities for external intervention, such as in Yemen and Syria.

Domestic State Strength and Foreign Policy

Domestic state strength is crucial in international politics, as seen in Syria's

transformation under Hafiz al-Assad, which initially reduced external meddling.
However, the 2011 uprising made Syria a battleground for regional powers. Similarly,
Iraq’s post-2003 instability turned it into an arena for proxy wars, despite its resources.

Regime Survival vs. State Interests

Regime security often drives foreign policy decisions, prioritizing personal survival over
national interest. Examples include Saddam Hussein's wars to preempt regime
threats and Syria’s reluctance to make peace with Israel. The 2011 uprisings
heightened regime survival concerns, increasing both perceived domestic threats and
external interventions.

Implications of 2011 Arab Uprisings

The 2011 uprisings significantly impacted regional politics by amplifying domestic

threats to regimes and creating opportunities for external involvement. This dynamic
highlight the importance of regime security over realist international logic, emphasizing
the interconnectedness of domestic stability and foreign policy.

The Power Structure of Regional Politics

The power dynamics in Middle Eastern regional politics are influenced by multiple
sources: military, economic, ideological, institutional, and domestic factors.
Geography also plays a critical role, determining the centrality or peripherality of states
based on their location.

Egypt:

 For much of the modern Middle East history, Egypt sought leadership in the Arab
world, initially through pan-Arabism in the 1950s and 1960s, and later as a pro-
US moderate "peace camp" leader in the 1980s and beyond.
  Egypt's leadership rested on its large population, a powerful and well-equipped
military, and a centralized state with a strong national identity. Its strategic central
location and proximity to Israel also contributed to its importance.
 Egypt's influence began to wane with the wealth shift to the Gulf following the
1970s oil price shocks, which reduced Egypt to seeking financial assistance.
Egypt's declining economic power and its unpopular position as a US ally and
peace partner with Israel weakened its influence.

Saudi Arabia:

Saudi Arabia's vast economic power enabled it to purchase advanced weapons and
exert diplomatic influence through financial subventions. It maintained close relations
with the United States and controlled Arab media by owning newspapers and television
stations. Additionally, it spread its version of Islam globally.

Despite its wealth, Saudi Arabia had significant vulnerabilities. Its political system
relied on tight societal control and religious establishment power. High oil prices were
necessary to sustain its patronage and social welfare system, making it vulnerable
when prices dropped. Militarily, Saudi Arabia was weak, needing US protection during
the 1990 Iraq invasion of Kuwait.

During the Arab uprisings, Saudi Arabia took a dominant regional role, leading a
counterrevolutionary coalition. Saudi Arabia revitalized the Gulf Cooperation Council
and the Arab League, supported NATO's intervention in Libya, backed Syrian rebels,
and led a military intervention in Yemen in 2015. It also supported other monarchies
and launched a campaign against Qatar, framing regional politics around sectarianism
and the containment of Iran.

Under Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Saudi foreign policy has become more
erratic and assertive.

Iraq:

Iraq was traditionally a central Arab state with a combination of oil wealth, a sizable
population, and geographic centrality. It maintained a powerful military, supported by
significant oil reserves and an educated middle class. The country received substantial
support from Gulf states during its war with Iran (1980-1988).

Weaknesses: Iraq's geography, with long borders shared with powerful competitors.
Internal sectarian and ethnic divisions threatened central government stability, often
resulting in authoritarian rule from Baghdad. The Kurdish provinces posed a
significant challenge, leading to severe campaigns of ethnic cleansing in the late 1980s.
Sanctions after 1991 weakened Iraq's economy and military. Following Saddam
Hussein's overthrow in 2003, Iraq's state apparatus weakened, leading to insurgency
and making it a battleground for external conflicts.

Iraq’s future regional role depends on its ability to establish effective sovereignty, a
stable and legitimate political order, and relative independence from Iran.

Syria:

Syria was a strong second-tier power, with a relatively large military, though weaker
compared to Israel and other Arab states due to reliance on Soviet arms and domestic
instability. Its military often aimed inward due to internal threats.

Syria positioned itself as the "beating heart of Arabism" and a key opponent of Israel,
aligning with Iran against Iraq. From 1990 to 2005, Syria's control over Lebanon
extended its power, supporting Hezbollah and resisting other great powers' influence.
The 2005 "Cedar Revolution," driven by US pressure, reduced Syrian influence in
Lebanon.

The 2011 brutal crackdown on peaceful protestors led to a civil war, reducing Syria to a
battleground for regional power politics and causing a major humanitarian crisis. The
state became divided among regime-held areas, rebel factions, and the Islamic State.

Iran:

Iran possesses the strongest combination of military capability, size, economic

resources, and state capacity in the region, even without nuclear weapons.
It is often viewed as a foreign threat by Arab states, particularly those with significant
Shi'i populations, both before and after the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Before 1979, Iran, under the shah, was a key US and Israeli ally and the dominant
military power in the Gulf.

Iran extended its influence in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen through proxy militias and local
allies. The 2015 nuclear deal offered potential for a changed regional role, but this did
not materialize.

Israel:

Its military advantages are unquestioned, from technological sophistication to an

undeclared but well-known nuclear weapons capability.

A constructivist battle over identity and legitimacy central to Israel’s place in regional
politics. Israel’s relations with the Arab world have aimed both at physical security and
at what might be called ontological security, a demand for normalization or recognition
as a normal state in the region

The Gulf States:

Qatar, one of the tiny but extremely wealthy Gulf ministates, set itself off from the other
GCC states by using its petroleum wealth to fuel an ambitious diplomacy and the
astonishingly successful Al-Jazeera television station. For a tiny state that hosted a
major US military base and had long enjoyed good relations with Israel

The United Arab Emirates has similarly taken on a more active regional political role
since the uprisings, taking a lead role in supporting Egypt’s 2013 military coup and the
2015 military intervention in Yemen.

Turkey:

Turkey, which for decades had shunned the Middle East and focused on its bid to join
Europe, began to refocus on the Arab world after the election of the mildly Islamist
Erdogan and the diminished prospects for EU membership.
After forming a close military alliance with Israel during the 1990s, during the
second half of the first decade of the twenty first century Turkey distanced itself from
Israel and began to form good working relationships across the region, including with
Iraq and Iran.

Its domestic turbulence, Syrian quagmire, and cross-border conflict with Kurds have
sharply challenged its regional influence.

Historical Periods

Arab cold war:

1948 Arab-Israeli War: Revealed the weakness of Arab cooperation and state
structures. Transjordan expanded to include the West Bank, and the poor performance
of Egyptian troops led to the 1952 Free Officers coup.

Nasser's Rise: Gamal Abdel Nasser's 1952 coup in Egypt shifted foreign policy
towards Arab unity. Nasser’s influence grew after the 1956 Suez Crisis.

Arabism vs. Conservatism: newly formed Arab republics, defined by revolutionary

secular nationalism and inspired by Nasser's Egypt, engaged in political rivalries with
conservative traditionalist Arab monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia.

several Arab countries, including Iraq, North Yemen and Libya, conservative regimes
were overthrown and replaced by revolutionary republican governments. Meanwhile,
Arab countries under Western occupation, such as Algeria and South Yemen,
experienced nationalist uprisings aimed at national liberation.

Syria, which was already strongly Arab nationalist, formed a short-lived federal union
with Egypt called the United Arab Republic.

Saudi Arabia and Jordan worked closely together to support the royalist faction in
the North Yemen Civil War. The conflict was a proxy war between Egypt and Saudi
Arabia following the establishment of the Nasserist Yemen Arab Republic in 1962.
Israeli Victory: Israel's preemptive strike destroyed Egypt’s air force, leading to a swift
defeat of Arab forces and the capture of Gaza, Sinai, the West Bank, Jerusalem, and
the Golan Heights. (1967 war)

After 1967 to the End of the Cold War:

Israel’s status transformed into a regional military powerhouse, Arab nationalism failed
and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) emerged as the leading
representative of Palestinian nationalism following fedayeen attacks against Israel.

Egypt and Syria’s surprise attack on Israel in 1973 aimed to regain lost territories,
leading to Egypt's realignment away from the Soviet Union toward the United States.

Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza intensified the Palestinian struggle, with
Jordan clashing with the PLO during the 1970 Black September civil war.

Post-1967, Egypt’s economic and military influence waned, leading to its peace treaty
with Israel in 1978-79 and subsequent expulsion from the Arab League.

Saudi Arabia's oil wealth and strategic influence grew, shifting the balance of power in
the Arab world toward the Gulf states.

1982 Lebanon War: Israel’s invasion aimed to destroy the PLO, leading to the siege of
Beirut and the emergence of Hezbollah, backed by Iran, which waged an insurgency
against Israeli occupation.

Lebanese Civil War: Continued conflict in Lebanon led to a civil war lasting until 1990,
when an Arab accord established Syrian military hegemony to maintain a fragile peace.

The Iranian Revolution alarmed Arab regimes, fearing the spread of revolutionary
fervor. Most Arab states supported Iraq in its 1980 war against Iran.

1970s and 1980s saw a shift to realist politics, with conflicts and peace agreements
driven by state interests rather than ideological aspirations.

After the Cold War:

The end of the Cold War led to a unipolar world with a deeper US involvement in the
Middle East.

Operation Desert Storm: The US-led response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait established
a lasting US military presence in the Gulf and initiated the Clinton administration’s policy
of dual containment against Iraq and Iran.

Globalization and the emergence of Al-Jazeera galvanized Arab identity, focusing on

core issues such as Palestine, Iraq, and dissatisfaction with the political and economic
status quo.

Public discontent peaked during the second Palestinian intifada, ongoing sanctions
against Iraq, and the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, with Islamist movements reshaping
political culture from below.

The removal of Saddam Hussein and the rise of a pro-Iranian Shi‘i government in Iraq
shifted the balance of power in the Gulf toward Iran.

The Arab Uprisings:

The Arab uprisings of 2010-2011 were marked by rapid dissemination of protest ideas
across the region through satellite television and the Internet, fueled by a shared
Arab identity. The Egyptian revolution was inspired by Tunisia, and the Syrian uprising
was influenced by Libya.

Authoritarian regimes, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, responded forcefully to
the uprisings. Saudi Arabia intervened in Bahrain to support the al-Khalifa monarchy
and brokered a political transition in Yemen. Financial support was extended to other
monarchies.

Syria's Civil War: Syria became the epicenter of regional devastation, with hundreds of
thousands dead and millions displaced. The Assad regime, supported by Russia and
Iran, survived the rebellion, while the US-led campaign targeted the Islamic State.

Libya's Struggle: Libya’s transition collapsed into conflict between competing

governments.
Yemen's Conflict: Saudi Arabia and its allies intervened in Yemen after the transitional
government failed, and Houthi rebels seized key cities.

Iran Nuclear Agreement: The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran initially suggested a possible
restructuring of regional order, but instead intensified conflicts.

Despite unresolved Palestinian issues, Israel formed closer relations with key Arab
states.

In 2017, Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched a blockade against Qatar, fracturing the
GCC.

CONCLUSION
 shift from unipolarity to multipolarity could change regional dynamics, as new
global powers like China and Russia become more involved.
 Changes within the region, such as Iraq’s potential reemergence or Iran
acquiring nuclear weapons, could significantly alter power dynamics.
 Countries like Qatar and Turkey are increasingly influential, challenging
traditional power structures.
 A resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict could transform regional politics,
reducing a major source of tension.