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w3-d1 Probabilities Mean and Variance

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views39 pages

w3-d1 Probabilities Mean and Variance

Uploaded by

Paul Agapay
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Recall: There is a vegetable or fruit raffle

for the community of Barangay


Bula. The spinner is divided into 6
sections and let X be the
vegetable or fruit where the
arrow will stop (namely grapes,
melon cucumber cucumber, melon, carrots)

X grapes cucumber melon carrots


P(X) 2 2 1 1
6 6 6 6
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Properties
1) The probability of each value of discrete random variable
is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
0 ≤ P (X=x) ≤ 1

2) The sum of all probabilities is 1.


σ P (X=x) = 1
“YES OR NO”
Raise your RIGHT
HAND if it YES, while
LEFT HAND if NO.
X grapes cucumber melon carrots
P(X) 2 2 1 1
6 6 6 6

Is the 1st property


satisfied or not?

YES NO
X grapes cucumber melon carrots
P(X) 2 2 1 1
6 6 6 6

Is the 2ND property


satisfied or not?

YES NO
X grapes cucumber melon carrots
P(X) 2 2 1 1
6 6 6 6

Is the example a DPD or


not?

YES NO
RANDOM VARIABLES
AND
PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
LEARNING TARGETS
At the end of the lesson, I should...
◦ compute probabilities corresponding to a given random
variable
◦ illustrate the mean and variance of a discrete random variable
◦ calculate the mean and the variance of a discrete random
variable
◦ express one’s thought about the importance of mean and
variance through examples
◦ write solutions of the problem solving involving probabilities,
mean and variance of discrete random variable on the answer
sheets legibly
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION - it is
listing of all possible values of a discrete
random variable along with their
corresponding probabilities.

Property 2:
The sum of all probabilities is 1.
σ P (x) =1
“Translate Me”
Identify the mathematical
translation that corresponds to
the given verbal description,
and do the action that matches
your answer.
GREATER THAN

<
>


LOWER THAN

<
>


AT LEAST

<


NOT MORE THAN

<


X IS NOT LESS THAN 4

𝒙<𝟒
𝒙≤𝟒

𝒙≥𝟒
X IS AT MOST 4

𝒙>𝟒
𝒙≤𝟒

𝒙≥𝟒
X IS BIGGER THAN 4

𝒙>𝟒
𝒙≤𝟒

𝒙≥𝟒
3 1
4 3 WEEK 2 – DAY 2:
4 EXAMPLE 2
2 (SPINNER)
4 1
2) The spinner is divided into
SPINNER 8 sections. Let X be the
score where the arrow will
stop (numbered as 1, 2,3
3 1 and 4.
A) Find the probability
4 3 mass function of the
outcome 1, 2,3 and 4.
2 4 B) Construct the discrete
probability distribution
4 1 table and its Histogram.
C. Verify if the two
properties are satisfied.
A) Find the probability mass
SPINNER function of the outcome 1, 2,3
and 4
2

1
𝑃 𝑋=1 =
3 8

4 3
1
𝑃 𝑋=2 =
8

2
2
4 𝑃 𝑋=3 =
8

4 1 𝑃 𝑋=4 =
3
8
B) Construct the discrete probability distribution table and its Histogram.
𝟐 𝟏 𝟐 𝟑
𝑷 𝟏 = ; 𝑷 𝟐 = ; 𝑷 𝟑 = ; 𝑷 𝟒 =
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
No. on Spinner 1 2 3 4
(x)
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙) 2 1 2 3
8 8 8 8
Histogram
0.4 0.375

0.3 0.25 0.25

0.2
0.125
0.1

0
𝑷(𝑿=𝟏) 𝑷(𝑿=𝟏) 𝑷(𝑿=𝟏) 𝑷(𝑿=𝟏)
C. Verify if the two properties are satisfied.
1st Property:
Since all the individual values of probability are from 0 to 1, then
the 1st property is satisfied.
2nd Property:
σ P(X) = 1
𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 + 𝑃(4) = 1
2 1 2 3
+ + + =1
8 8 8 8
1=1
Conclusion: Therefore table 1 is a discrete probability distribution
since the 2 properties are satisfied.
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖

a)Find P(3)
b)What is the probability that x is at least 2?
c)What is the probability that x is fewer than 4?
d) What is the probability that x is at most 1?
X 1 2 3 4
P(X) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖

a)Find P(X=3)
෍ P(X) = 1

𝟏=𝑷 𝟏 +𝑷 𝟐 +𝑷 𝟑 +𝑷 4
1 = 0.25 + 0.125 + +𝑷 𝟑 + 0.375
1 = 0.75 + 𝑃 3
1 − 0.75 = 𝑃(3)
𝑷(3) = 1 − 0.75
𝑷(3) = 0.25
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖

a)Find P(3)
b)What is the probability that x is at least 2?
c)What is the probability that x is fewer than 4?
d) What is the probability that x is at most 1?
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
b) What is the probability that x is at least 2?
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 2 = 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 + 𝑃(4)
𝑃 𝑥 ≥ 2 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝑷 𝒙 ≥ 𝟐 = 0.75
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
c) What is the probability that x is fewer than 4?
𝑃 𝑥 <4 =𝑃 1 +𝑃 2 +𝑃 3
𝑃 𝑥 < 4 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 + 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
𝑷 𝒙 < 4 = 0.625
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
d) What is the probability that x is at most 1?
𝑃 𝑥≤1 =𝑃 1
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 1 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
Mean or Expected Value

𝑬 𝑿 = 𝝁 = ෌[𝑥𝑃 𝑥 ]

Variance of Discrete Random Variable

𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐 = ෌ 𝑥 2 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇2

Standard Deviation

𝝈= 𝝈𝟐

𝑬(𝑿) = 𝝁 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒


𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 𝒐𝒓 𝝈𝟐 = 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒

𝑿 = 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒

𝐱 = 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑜𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒


𝑷 𝒙 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑥.
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.

x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
d) Solve for the mean
𝑬 𝑿 = 𝝁 = ෍[𝑥𝑃 𝑥 ]

= 1 0.25 + 2 0.125 + 3 0.25 + 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓


= 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.75 + 𝟏. 𝟓
𝝁 = 2.75
A discrete random variable x has the following probability
distribution.
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 𝟐 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 𝟑
= 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓
𝟖 𝟖 𝟖
d) Solve for the variance
𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐 = ෍ 𝑥 2 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇2

= 12 0.25 + 22 0.125 + 32 0.25 + 𝟒𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟓 − 2.75 2

= 0.25 + 0.5 + 2.25 + 𝟔 − 7.5625


= 9 − 7.5625
𝝈𝟐 = 1.4375
“Guided Group
Work”
Solve the mean and
variance.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 𝟎. 𝟔𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓
Solve the mean.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 𝟎. 𝟔𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓

𝑬 𝑿 = 𝝁 = ෍[𝒙𝑷 𝒙 ]

__?__
= 𝟎(𝟎. __?__
𝟎𝟑) + 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟔𝟏 + 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 + 𝟑(𝟎. 𝟏𝟓)

_?𝟔𝟏 + 𝟎. 𝟒𝟐 + 𝟎._?𝟒𝟓
= 𝟎 + 𝟎.
= 𝟏._?
𝟒𝟖
Solve the variance.
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑 𝟎. 𝟔𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐𝟏 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓

d) Solve for the variance


𝑽𝒂𝒓 𝑿 = 𝝈𝟐 = ෍ 𝑥 2 𝑃 𝑥 − 𝜇2

= 02 0.03 + 1__?__
2
0.61 + 2__?__
2
0.21 + 32 0.15 − 1.48 2

= 0? + 0.61 + 0.84 + 1.35


_? − 2.1904
_?__
? − 2.1904
= 2.8
𝜎 2 = 0.6096
__?__

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