Equity Research Report - Tesla Inc
Equity Research Report - Tesla Inc
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
Net Income Margin • Tesla Inc. demonstrated resilience with $53,823 million
revenue in 2021, followed by a surge to $96,773 million in
$ 45,000.0 25.00% 2023, reflecting a robust 18.80% YoY growth.
$ 40,000.0
$ 35,000.0 20.00%
$ 30,000.0 • This growth is underpinned by increasing demand for
15.00%
$ 25,000.0 Tesla's electric vehicles and energy solutions, supported by
$ 20,000.0
$ 15,000.0
10.00% innovations in autonomous driving and battery technology.
$ 10,000.0 5.00%
$ 5,000.0 • With expansion plans and a sustainability focus, Tesla is
- 0.00%
poised for sustained revenue growth, offering investors
FY FY FY FY FY
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 promising opportunities in the automotive and clean
A A A F F energy sectors.
Source : Company fillings, IIF Education
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents $ 17,576.0 $ 16,253.0 $ 16,398.0 $ 25,294.2 $ 31,952.0
Short-term investments $ 131.0 $ 5,932.0 $ 12,696.0 $ 12,696.0 $ 12,696.0
Accounts receivable, net $ 1,913.0 $ 2,952.0 $ 3,508.0 $ 4,133.0 $ 5,737.9
Inventory $ 5,757.0 $ 12,839.0 $ 13,626.0 $ 16,128.9 $ 22,256.4
Prepaid expenses and other Curr assets $ 1,723.0 $ 2,941.0 $ 3,388.0 $ 3,388.0 $ 3,388.0
Total current assets $ 27,100.0 $ 40,917.0 $ 49,616.0 $ 61,640.2 $ 76,030.3
Operating lease vehicles, net $ 4,511.0 $ 5,035.0 $ 5,989.0 $ 5,989.0 $ 5,989.0
Solar Solar energy systems, net $ 5,765.0 $ 5,489.0 $ 5,229.0 $ 5,229.0 $ 5,229.0
Property, plant and equipment, net $ 18,884.0 $ 23,548.0 $ 29,725.0 $ 36,335.1 $ 45,904.7
Operating lease right-of-use assets $ 2,016.0 $ 2,563.0 $ 4,180.0 $ 4,180.0 $ 4,180.0
Digital assets, net $ 1,260.0 $ 184.0 $ 184.0 $ 184.0 $ 184.0
Intangible assets, net $ 257.0 $ 215.0 $ 178.0 $ 178.0 $ 178.0
Goodwill $ 200.0 $ 194.0 $ 253.0 $ 253.0 $ 253.0
Deferred tax assets - $ 328.0 $ 6,733.0 $ 6,733.0 $ 6,733.0
Other non-current assets $ 2,138.0 $ 3,865.0 $ 4,531.0 $ 4,531.0 $ 4,531.0
Total assets $ 62,131.0 $ 82,338.0 $ 1,06,618.0 $ 1,25,252.2 $ 1,49,212.1
Current liabilities
Accounts payable $ 10,025.0 $ 15,255.0 $ 14,431.0 $ 19,926.3 $ 26,204.1
Accrued liabilities and other $ 5,719.0 $ 8,205.0 $ 9,080.0 $ 9,080.0 $ 9,080.0
Deferred revenue $ 1,447.0 $ 1,747.0 $ 2,864.0 $ 2,864.0 $ 2,864.0
Customer deposits $ 925.0 - - - -
Current portion of debt $ 1,589.0 $ 1,502.0 $ 2,373.0 $ 2,373.0 $ 2,373.0
Total current liabilities $ 19,705.0 $ 26,709.0 $ 28,748.0 $ 34,243.3 $ 40,521.1
Debt and finance leases, net $ 5,245.0 $ 1,597.0 $ 2,857.0 $ 2,857.0 $ 2,857.0
Deferred revenue, net of current portion $ 2,052.0 $ 2,804.0 $ 3,251.0 $ 3,251.0 $ 3,251.0
Other long-term liabilities $ 3,546.0 $ 5,330.0 $ 8,153.0 $ 8,153.0 $ 8,153.0
Total liabilities $ 30,548.0 $ 36,440.0 $ 43,009.0 $ 48,504.3 $ 54,782.1
Commitments and contingencies (Note 15)
Redeemable non-controlling interests in
subsidiaries $ 568.0 $ 409.0 $ 242.0
Stockholders’ equity
Preferred stock - - -
Common Stock $ 3.0 $ 3.0 $ 3.0
Additional paid-in capital $ 29,803.0 $ 32,177.0 $ 34,892.0
Accumulated other comprehensive loss $ 54.0 ($ 361.0) ($ 143.0)
Total Equity Capital $ 30,428.0 $ 32,228.0 $ 34,994.0 $ 34,994.0 $ 34,994.0
Retained earnings $ 329.0 $ 12,885.0 $ 27,882.0 $ 41,020.9 $ 58,703.0
Total stockholders’ equity $ 30,757.0 $ 45,113.0 $ 62,876.0 $ 76,014.9 $ 93,697.0
Non-controlling interests in subsidiaries $ 826.0 $ 785.0 $ 733.0 $ 733.0 $ 733.0
Total liabilities and equity $ 62,131.0 $ 82,338.0 $ 1,06,618.0 $ 1,25,252.2 $ 1,49,212.1
Source : Company fillings, IIF Education
Global Region Equity Research
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
Changes in Cash and Cash Equivalents $ 1,288.0 $ 6,254.0 $ 9,259.0 $ 8,896.2 $ 6,657.9
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
VALUATION VALUATION :
Valuation Target Price : $ 209.1 (BUY)
EMM Model
PV of Future Cash Flow $ 2,29,813.5 Various valuation methodologies were employed to
PV of Terminal Value - PGM - establish a target price for Tesla, Inc. These included a 5-
EMM Multiple : year DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) analysis, a Relative
PV Of Terminal Value - EMM $ 5,95,589.4 Multiple Valuation utilizing Public Comparable Company
Enterprise Value $ 8,25,402.9 Analysis (CCA), and a Monte Carlo Simulation to model the
(-) Debt ($ 5,230.0) probability of various stock price outcomes. The analysis
(-) Min Interest ($ 23.0) incorporated the Precision-Guided Model (PGM) and the
(-) Preferred Share Out. - Exit Multiple Model (EMM) to enhance the accuracy and
(+) Cash $ 16,398.0 robustness of the valuation process.
Market Capital $ 8,36,547.9
Shares Outstanding 3485.00 DCF MODEL:
Implied Share Value $ 240
A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis was used to estimate the
PGM Model intrinsic value of Tesla, Inc. due to the predictability of cash
PV of Future Cash Flow $ 2,29,813.5 flows in relation to growth and profitability. The base case
PV of Terminal Value - PGM $ 3,82,824.4
for this model was formulated using guidance from
EMM Multiple : historical performance, industry outlook, an assessment of
PV Of Terminal Value - EMM Tesla's competitive positioning, and company guidance on
Enterprise Value $ 6,12,637.9 acquisitions, revenue, and earnings growth.
(-) Debt ($ 5,230.0)
(-) Min Interest ($ 23.0) This model is driven by Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCF), as
(-) Preferred Share Out. - it represents cash that is available for debt and equity
(+) Cash $ 16,398.0 holders. Unlevered Free Cash Flow is calculated as EBIT
Market Capital $ 6,23,782.9 minus taxes, plus Depreciation and Amortization (D&A),
Shares Outstanding 3485.00 minus Capital Expenditures (Capex), and changes in Net
Implied Share Value $ 179 Working Capital.
DCF Multiple
The historical horizon considered for the analysis is from
Est. Price $ 179 $ 240 2021 to 2023, where we have observed steady sales growth
Weight 50% 50% rates and margins, making FCF forecasts more predictable
Target Price $ 209.1 and reliable. The resulting valuation target for Tesla, Inc. is
Source : Financial Modelling of Tesla, IIF Education
$201.1, suggesting a "BUY" recommendation at the current
market price of $175.79.
FREE CASH FLOW (FCF)
Years FY 2021 A FY 2022 A FY 2023 A FY 2024 F FY 2025 F
EBIT*(1-Tax Rate) $ 5,153.2 $ 10,788.2 $ 7,023.9 $ 30,615.9 $ 41,353.9
Depreciation & Amortization $ 4,667.0 $ 3,747.0 $ 2,911.0 $ 7,340.3 $ 9,273.5
Capex ($ 8,898.0) ($ 7,158.0) ($ 6,482.0) ($ 13,950.3) ($ 18,843.2)
Changes In Working Capital - ($ 2,891.0) ($ 2,167.0) $ 1,530.5 ($ 1,487.7)
Unlevered FCF $ 25,536.4 $ 30,296.6
Source : Financial Modelling of Tesla, IIF Education
Global Region Equity Research
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
ANNUALLY SNAPSHOT :
Revenues Gross Profit / Margin
$ 1,20,000.0 45.00%
$ 2,38,486.8 40.00%
$ 1,00,000.0
35.00%
25.00%
$ 1,30,714.6 $ 60,000.0
20.00%
$ 96,773.0
$ 40,000.0 15.00%
$ 81,462.0
10.00%
$ 53,823.0
$ 20,000.0
5.00%
- 0.00%
FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026
FY 2021 A FY 2022 A FY 2023 A FY 2024 F FY 2025 F FY 2026 F A A A F F F
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
REVENUE SUMMARY :
Despite a robust 51.35% year-over-year growth in 2022, followed by a moderate 18.80% in 2023, the
forecast for 2024 to 2028 remains cautiously optimistic with an average annual growth rate of 35.07%,
while best-case scenarios anticipate a 50% yearly increase and worst-case scenarios project a 20% annual
growth.
COGS SUMMARY :
Tesla Inc.'s COGS surged by 74.72% in 2021, followed by 74.40% in 2022, and a staggering 81.75% in 2023,
highlighting the urgent need for cost reduction strategies to enhance profitability and competitiveness in
the market.
Global Region Equity Research
TESLA, INC
Can COGS Impact On Financial Performance ?
DISCLOSUSERS :
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest :
The author, or a member of their household, of this report does not hold a financial interest in the
securities of this company. The author, or a member of their household, of this report does not know of the
existence of any conflicts of interest that might bias the content or publication of this report.
Receipt of Compensation :
Compensation of the author of this report is not based on revenue.
Market Making :
The author does not act as a market maker in the subject company’s securities.
Disclaimer :
The information set forth herein has been obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public
and believed by the author to be reliable, but the author does not make any representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the
basis of any investment decisions by any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment
advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be
considered to be a recommendation by any individual affiliated with Infinity Institute Of Finance.
This Equity Research Report is for educational purposes only. The information set forth herein has been
obtained or derived from sources generally available to the public and believed by the author(s) to be
reliable, but the author do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy
or completeness. The information is not intended to be used as the basis of any investment decisions by
any person or entity. This information does not constitute investment advice, nor is it an offer or a
solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. This report should not be considered to be a
recommendation by any individual affiliated with Infinity Institute Of Finance.