Probability and probability distribution

Prof. Disha Shah

Module 2
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 Types of probability distribution

• Mathematical distribution
• Binomial distribution
• Poisson distribution
• Normal distribution

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Probability Distribution

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x P(x) Xp(x) X*xp(x)

1 0.2 0.2 0.2

2 0.25 0.5 1

3 P 0.9 2.7

4 0.05 0.2 0.8

5 0.1 0.5 2.5

6 0.1 0.6 3.6

0.7+p Ex=Exp(x)=2.9 Total=10.8

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Problem sums of probability distribution
1. What is the expected number of heads appearing when a fair coin
is tossed three times?
2. A contractor spends Rs. 3000 to prepare for a bid on a construction
project which, after deducting manufacturing expenses and the
cost of bidding, will yield a profit of Rs. 25000 if the bid is won. If
the chance of winning the bid is ten per cent, compute his
expected profit and state the likely decision on whether to bid or
not to bid.
3. An urn contains 7 white and 3 red balls. Two balls are drawn at
random, from this urn. Compute the expected number of white
balls drawn.
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 EVENT(X) PROBABILITY P(X) X*P(X)

Solution-1 0 1/8 0
Probability of head if we throw
three coins are = HHH, HHT, HTH,
THH, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT 1 3/8 3/8
Total probability are 8
0 head probability = TTT 2 3/8 6/8
1 head probability = TTH, THT, HTT
2 head probability = HHT, HTH, THH 3 1/8 3/8
3 head probability = HHH

12/8=3/2=1.5

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Solution-2
EVENT X P(X) X*P(X)
• The person will either win or
loose.
• If he will win he will get 25000. WIN 22000 0.10 2200
(25000-300
• If he will loose he will loose 0)
3000. LOOSE 3000 0.90 -2700
• As expectation comes negative
he should not go for this
contract. -500

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 Event of white Probability of X*p(x)
balls (x) white balls p(x)

Solution-3 0 (2 red balls) 3/45 0

7 white and 3 red balls so total are
= 10
2 balls are drawn at a random. 1 (1 white and 1 21/45 21/45
Expected number of white balls? red)

2 (2 white balls) 21/45 42/45

63/45

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Problem sums of probability distribution
4. From a bag containing 4 white and 6 red balls, three balls are
drawn at random.
• Find the expected number of white balls drawn.
• If each white ball drawn carries a reward of Rs. 4 and each red ball Rs. 6 , find
the expected rewards of the draw.
5. A player tosses two fair coins. He wins RS. 5 if 2 heads occur, Rs. 2 if
1 head occurs and Rs. 1 if no head occurs.
• Find his expected gain.
• How much should he pay to play a game if it is to be fair?

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 White balls Reward (x) Probability of
event getting
Solution-4 reward p(x)
0 white ball = 3*6=18
4 white and 6 red balls so total 3 red balls
there are 10.
3 balls are taken. White ball gives
reward of 4 Rs, while Red balls give 1 white ball= (1*4)+(2*6)=
reward of 6 Rs. 1 white and 2 4+12=16
red
2 white balls= (2*4)+(1*6)=
2 white and 1 8+6=14
red
3 white balls= 3*4=12
3 white and 0
red
total

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 Event of Reward (x) Probability Xp(x)
getting head p(x)

Solution-5 0 1 1/4 ¼

Two coins = HH, TT, TH, HT

Rs 5 for two head =HH
1 2 2/4 4/4
Rs 2 for 1 head =HT,TH
Rs 1 for 0 head = TT
2 5 1/4 5/4

10/4=5/2

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Problem sums of probability distribution
6. Three coins, whose faces are marked 1 and 2, are tossed. What is
the expectation of the total value of numbers on their faces?
7. A box contains 12 items of which 3 are defective. A sample of 3
items is selected at random from this box. If X represents the number
of defective items in the 3 selected items, describe the random
variable X completely and obtain its expectation.
8. Compute mean and S.D.
X -3 -1 0 4

P(X) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1

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Binomial Distribution

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Pascal triangle

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Binomial Distribution
• Binomial distribution
• Mean : np (p=1-q)
• Variance : npq
• Parameters= p,q,n
• Ten unbiased coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of
obtaining
• Exactly 6 heads
• At least 8 heads
• No head
• At least one head
• Not more than three head
• At least 4 heads

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 Solution
• Ten coins are tossed- n= 10
• Probabilities will be head or tail so p=1/2
• q=1-p=1/2
• Exactly 6 heads= x=6
• At least 8 heads= x=8,9,10
• No head= x=0
• At least one head= x=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 OR 1-(X=0)
• Not more than three head= x= 0,1,2,3
• At least 4 heads=x=4,5,6,7,8,9,10 OR 1-(X=0,1,2,3)
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Binomial Distribution
1. Assume that half the population is vegetarian so that the chance of
an individual being a vegetarian is ½ . Assuming that 100
investigators each take sample of 10 individuals to see whether they
are vegetarians, how many investigators would you expect to report
that three people or less were vegetarian?
2. 8 coins are tossed at a time, 256 times. Find the expected
frequencies of successes (getting a head) and tabulate the results
obtained.
• Also obtain the values of the mean and standard deviation.

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Binomial Distribution
3. Fit a binomial distribution to the following data:
X 0 1 2 3 4

f 28 62 46 10 4

4. Find p for binomial random variable X if n=6 and if 9P(X=4)=P(X=2)

5. Find parameters of binomial distribution if mean=7 and
variance=11.

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Binomial Distribution
6. The mean and variance of a binomial distribution are 3 and 2
respectively. Find the probability that the variate takes values
• Less than or equal to 2
• Greater than or equal to 7
7. If the probability of a defective bolt is 1/10, find
• The mean
• Variance, for the distribution of defective bolts in a total of 400.

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Binomial Distribution
9. An unbiased coin is tossed 5 times independently and let x denote
the number of tails obtained. Find the probability distribution of x,
p(x=2) and variance of X.
10. If the probability of a defective bolt is 0.2, find mean and standard
deviation of defective bolts in a total of 900 bolts.
11. With the usual notation, find p for a binomial random variable X, if
n=6 and if 9P(X=4)=P(X=2).
12. Find the probability of success p for a binomial distribution, if n=6
and 4P(X=4)=P(X=2)

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Poisson Distribution

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Poisson Distribution
• Parameter:
• Mean = m= np
• Variance = m
• Mean = variance

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Poisson Distribution
1. Between the hours 2 P.M. And 4 P.M. The average number of
phone calls per minute coming into the switch board of company is
2.35. find the probability that during one particular minute there
will be at most 2 phone calls. (e-2.35= 0.095374)
• Solution:
• P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)
• 0.5828543

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Poisson Distribution
2. It is known from past experience that in a certain plant there are
on the average 4 industrial accidents per month. Find the
probability that in a given month there will be less than 4 accidents.
(e-4=0.0183)
• Solution:
• P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)
• e-4(1+4+8+10.67)
• 0.4332

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Poisson Distribution
3. In a certain factory turning out optical lenses. There is a small
chance 1/500 for any one lens to be defective. The lenses are
supplied, in packet of 10. Use Poisson distribution to calculate the
approximate number of packets containing no defective, one
defective, two defective, three defective lenses respectively in a
consignment of 20000 packets. (e-0.02=0.9802)
• Solution:
• Answers- 19604, 392 (approx), 4, 0.

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Poisson Distribution
4. The management of photograph record company has discovered
that the number of defects on records appears to follow a Poisson
distribution with a mean equal to 0.4.
• What is the probability that a record selected at random will have three
defects?
• If management sets a policy that all photographer records sold to customer
must not have any defects, what per cent of its records production will not
be made available for sales because of defects?( e-0.4=0.6703)

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Poisson Distribution
5. If a random variable X follows poisson distribution such that
P(X=1)=P(X=2) find,
• The mean and variance of the distribution.
• P(X=0)

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Poisson Distribution
7.Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data and calculate the
theoretical frequencies:
x 0 1 2 3 4

f 123 59 14 3 1

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 Poisson Distribution
• Solution :
• e-0.5=0.6065

X 0 1 2 3 4

F 123 59 14 3 1 Ef=200

fx 0 59 28 9 4 Efx=100

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Poisson Distribution
8. A guest house has two rooms which it hires out by the day. The
number of demand for a room on any day follow poisson distribution
with mean 1.5. calculate the probability that
• All rooms are vacant on a particular day.
• Some demand if refused on that day.
9. Assuming that on an average 1% of the output in a factory making
certain part of an article are defective and that 200 units are in a
package, find the probability that:
• At the most 2 defectives
• At least 2 defectives.

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Normal Distribution

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Normal Distribution

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Normal Distribution
1. Assume the mean height of soldiers to be 68.22 inches with a
variance of 10.8 inches. How many soldiers in a regiment of 1000
would you expect to be
• Over six feet tall
• Below 5.5 feet?

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Normal Distribution
2. The daily wages of 1000 workmen are normally distributed around a
mean of Rs. 70 and with a standard deviation of Rs. 5. estimate the
number of workers whose daily wages will be:
• Between 70 and 72
• Between 69 and 72
• More than 75
• Less than 63
• More than 80
• Also estimate the lowest daily wages of the 100 highest paid workers.

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Normal Distribution
3. A set of examination marks is approximately normally distributed
with a mean of 75 and standard deviation of 5. if the top 5% of
students get grade A and the bottom 25% get grade F, what mark is
the lowest A and what A and what mark is the highest F?
4. The distribution of marks obtained in an examination is normal. 44%
of the candidates get marks below 61 and 4% of the candidates got
marks above 80. find the percentage of candidates who got marks
above 65.

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