SL 4.

6 Combined, Mutually Exclusive, Conditional, independence,

Probability Diagrams [673 marks]

1. [Maximum mark: 5] SPM.1.SL.TZ0.2

Let A and B be events such that P (A) ,
= 0.5 P (B) = 0.4 and P (A ∪ B) = 0.6 .

Find P (A |B). [5]

Markscheme

attempt to substitute into P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) (M1)

Note: Accept use of Venn diagram or other valid method.

0.6 = 0.5 + 0.4 − P (A ∩ B) (A1)

P (A ∩ B) = 0.3 (seen anywhere) A1

P(A∩B)
attempt to substitute into P (A |B) =
P(B)
(M1)

0.3
=
0.4

P (A |B) = 0.75 (=
3
4
) A1

[5 marks]
2. [Maximum mark: 15] SPM.2.SL.TZ0.8
The length, X mm, of a certain species of seashell is normally distributed with mean 25 and variance, σ . 2

The probability that X is less than 24.15 is 0.1446.

(a) Find P(24.15 < X < 25). [2]

Markscheme

attempt to use the symmetry of the normal curve (M1)

eg diagram, 0.5 − 0.1446

P(24.15 < X < 25) = 0.3554 A1

[2 marks]

(b.i) Find σ, the standard deviation of X. [3]

Markscheme

use of inverse normal to find z score (M1)

z = −1.0598

correct substitution 24.15−25

σ
= −1.0598 (A1)

σ = 0.802 A1

[3 marks]

(b.ii) Hence, find the probability that a seashell selected at random has a length greater than 26
mm. [2]

Markscheme

P(X > 26) = 0.106 (M1)A1

[2 marks]

A random sample of 10 seashells is collected on a beach. Let Y represent the number of seashells with lengths
greater than 26 mm.

(c) Find E(Y). [3]

 Markscheme

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

E(Y) = 10 × 0.10621 (A1)

= 1.06 A1

[3 marks]

(d) Find the probability that exactly three of these seashells have a length greater than 26 mm. [2]

Markscheme

P(Y = 3) (M1)

= 0.0655 A1

[2 marks]

(e) A seashell selected at random has a length less than 26 mm.

Find the probability that its length is between 24.15 mm and 25 mm. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

correct substitution A1

0.3554

1−0.10621

= 0.398 A1

[3 marks]
3. [Maximum mark: 6] EXN.2.AHL.TZ0.9
A biased coin is weighted such that the probability, p, of obtaining a tail is 0. 6. The coin is tossed
repeatedly and independently until a tail is obtained.

Let E be the event “obtaining the first tail on an even numbered toss”.

Find P(E). [6]

Markscheme

* This sample question was produced by experienced DP mathematics senior examiners to aid teachers
in preparing for external assessment in the new MAA course. There may be minor differences in
formatting compared to formal exam papers.

METHOD 1

En is the event “the first tail occurs on the 2nd, 4th, 6th, …, 2nth toss”
∞

P(E) = Σ P(E n ) (A1)

n=1

Note: Award A1 for deducing that either 1 head before a tail or 3 heads before a tail or 5 heads before a
tail etc. is required. In other words, deduces (2n − 1) heads before a tail.

M1A1
3 5
P(E) = 0. 4 × 0. 6 + (0. 4) × 0. 6 + (0. 4) × 0. 6 + …

Note: Award M1 for attempting to form an infinite geometric series.

Note: Award A1 for P(E) = Σ (0. 4)

2n−1
(0. 6) .
n=1

uses S ∞ =
u1

1−r
with u 1 = 0. 6 × 0. 4 and r = (0. 4)
2
(M1)

Note: Award M1 for using S with u and r

u1 2
∞ = 1 = 0. 4 = (0. 4)
1−r

=
0.6×0.4
2
A1
1−(0.4)

= 0. 286 (=
2

7
) A1
METHOD 2

let T be the event “tail occurs on the first toss”

1

uses P(E) = P(E T 1 )P(T 1 ) + P(E T 1′

)P(T 1′) M1

concludes that P(E T1 ) = 0 and so P(E) = P(E T 1′

)P(T 1′) R1

P(E T 1′
) = P(E′)(= 1 − P(E)) A1

Note: Award A1 for concluding: given that a tail is not obtained on the first toss, then P(E T 1′
) is the
probability that the first tail is obtained after a further odd number of tosses, P(E′).

P(T 1′) = 0 .4

P(E) = 0 .4 (1 − P(E)) A1

attempts to solve for P(E) (M1)

= 0. 286 (=
2

7
) A1

[6 marks]
4. [Maximum mark: 5]

Find P(B).

Markscheme

substitutes into P(A ∪ B)

(or equivalent)

P(B) =

[5 marks]
15

75
(=
1

∣
Events A and B are such that P(A)

0. 55 = 0. 4 + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

substitutes into P(A B) =

= 0. 2)
P(B)
,
= 0. 4 P(A|B) = 0. 25

= P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

P(A∩B)
(or equivalent)

to form 0. 25

Note: The above two A marks are awarded independently.

correct equation in P(B)

0. 55 = 0. 4 + P(B) − 0. 25P(B)
A1

A1
OR
P(B)−0.15

P(B)
=
(A1)

P(A∩B)

P(B)
and P(A ∪ B)

to form

attempts to combine their two probability equations to form an equation in P(B)

= 0. 25 OR
= 0. 55

(or equivalent) (A1)

.

(M1)

P(B) − 0. 15 = 0. 25P(B)
23M.1.SL.TZ2.4

[5]
5. [Maximum mark: 5]

Find P(B).

Markscheme

substitutes into P(A ∪ B)

(or equivalent)

P(B) =

[5 marks]
15

75
(=
1

∣
Events A and B are such that P(A)

0. 55 = 0. 4 + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

substitutes into P(A B) =

= 0. 2)
P(B)
,
= 0. 4 P(A|B) = 0. 25

= P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

P(A∩B)
(or equivalent)

to form 0. 25

Note: The above two A marks are awarded independently.

correct equation in P(B)

0. 55 = 0. 4 + P(B) − 0. 25P(B)
A1

A1
OR
P(B)−0.15

P(B)
=
(A1)

P(A∩B)

P(B)
and P(A ∪ B)

to form

attempts to combine their two probability equations to form an equation in P(B)

= 0. 25 OR
= 0. 55

(or equivalent) (A1)

.

(M1)

P(B) − 0. 15 = 0. 25P(B)
23M.1.AHL.TZ2.3

[5]
6. [Maximum mark: 17] 23M.2.SL.TZ1.8
In a large city, 160 people were surveyed. Of those, 60 were children (C ) and the rest adults (A).

Each person in the survey was asked whether they preferred milk chocolate (M ) or dark chocolate (D). It
was found that 48 of the children preferred milk chocolate. This information is shown in the following table.

M (milk chocolate) D (dark chocolate) Total

C (children) 48 p 60

A (adults) x y q

(a) Find the value of

(a.i) p ; [1]

Markscheme

p = 12 A1

[1 mark]

(a.ii) q . [1]

Markscheme

q = 100 A1

[1 mark]

(b) Three people are chosen at random from those surveyed. Find the probability that all three
are adults. [4]

Markscheme

P(Adult) =
100

160
(= 0. 625) (seen anywhere) (A1)

3
Note: Award A1 for (X~) B(3, 0. 625) or ( 100

160
) but no further marks.

recognition that choice of adults is without replacement (may be seen in tree diagram) (M1)
 241

(c.ii)

(d)
100

160

Markscheme

48+x

Markscheme
×

0. 241372 …

[4 marks]

(c.i)

P(A ∩ M ) =

[1 mark]

Markscheme
99

159

A1

METHOD 1 (using P(A|B)

×

Given that P(A

(=
1
)
98

158

OR

160
160

160
x

48+x

∣ (A1)

M) =
1

(A1)(A1)
, find the value of x.

Note: Award A1 for correct numerator and A1 for correct denominator.

x = 24

[3 marks]
A1

A person is chosen at random from those surveyed. Write down the probability that they are
an adult who prefers milk chocolate.

24
(=
3

20

recognition that A and M are independent if P(A|M )

) A1

Determine if the events A and M are independent. Justify your answer.

= P(A) )

= P(A) (M1)
[3]

[1]

[3]
 1

3
≠
100

160
R1

so they are not independent A1

METHOD 2 (using P(A) ⋅ P(B) = P(A ∩ B) )

attempt to find the product P(A) × P(M ) OR P(A) × P(D) (M1)

100

160
×
72

160
≠
24

160
(
9

32
≠
3

20
) OR 100

160
×
88

160
≠
76

160
(
11

32
≠
19

40
) R1

so they are not independent A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[3 marks]

It can be assumed that the survey results are representative of the population of the city.

(e) Ten people in the city are chosen at random. Find the probability that at least five of them
prefer dark chocolate. [4]

Markscheme

P(dark chocolate)= 88

160
(= 0. 55) (maybe seen in part (d)) (A1)

recognize that the variable has a Binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(10, 0. 55)

recognition that P(X ≥ 5) or 1 − P(X ≤ 4) is required (M1)

Note: These two M marks are independent of each other.

0.738437…

0.738 A1

[4 marks]
7. [Maximum mark: 6] 22N.1.SL.TZ0.6
Events A and B are such that P(A) = 0. 3 and P(B) = 0. 8 .

(a) Determine the value of P(A ∩ B) in the case where the events A and B are independent. [1]

Markscheme

P(A ∩ B) = 0. 24 A1

[1 mark]

(b) Determine the minimum possible value of P(A ∩ B). [3]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = 1. 1 − P(A ∩ B) (A1)

(0 ≤)P(A ∪ B) ≤ 1 (M1)

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram or written explanation where P(A ∪ B) = 1

the minimum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 1 A1

[3 marks]

(c) Determine the maximum possible value of P(A ∩ B), justifying your answer. [2]

Markscheme

A is a subset of B (so P(A ∩ B) = P(A) ). R1

Note: This may be conveyed in a clearly labelled diagram where A is completely inside B, or in a
written explanation indicating that P(A ∩ B) = P(A)

so the maximum value of P(A ∩ B) is 0. 3 A1

Note: Do not award R0A1.

[2 marks]
8. [Maximum mark: 16] 22N.2.SL.TZ0.9
The time worked, T , in hours per week by employees of a large company is normally distributed with a
mean of 42 and standard deviation 10. 7.

(a) Find the probability that an employee selected at random works more than 40 hours per
week. [2]

Markscheme

Note: Do not penalize for inclusion or non-inclusion of endpoints for probabilities using a normal
distribution. For example, for P(T < 55 T > 40) accept P(T ≤ 55 T > 40), P(T ≤ 55 T ≥ 40),
etc.

recognising to find P(T > 40) (M1)

P(T > 40) = 0. 574136 …

P(T > 40) = 0. 574 A1

[2 marks]

(b) A group of four employees is selected at random. Each employee is asked in turn whether
they work more than 40 hours per week. Find the probability that the fourth employee is
the only one in the group who works more than 40 hours per week. [3]

Markscheme

Note: Do not penalize for inclusion or non-inclusion of endpoints for probabilities using a normal
distribution. For example, for P(T < 55 T > 40) accept P(T ≤ 55 T > 40), P(T ≤ 55 T ≥ 40),
etc.

attempt to multiply four independent probabilities using their P(T > 40) and P(T < 40) (M1)

OR OR
3 3 3
(1 − p) ⋅ p (1 − 0. 574136 …) ⋅ 0. 574136 … (0. 425863 …) ⋅ 0. 574136 …

(A1)

0. 0443430 …

0. 0443 , 0. 0444 from 3 sf values A1

 [3 marks]

A large group of employees work more than 40 hours per week.

(c.i) An employee is selected at random from this large group.

Find the probability that this employee works less than 55 hours per week. [4]

Markscheme

Note: Do not penalize for inclusion or non-inclusion of endpoints for probabilities using a normal
distribution. For example, for P(T < 55 T > 40) accept P(T ≤ 55 T > 40), P(T ≤ 55 T ≥ 40),
etc.

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

P(T < 55 T > 40)

Note: Award (M1) for an expression or description in context. Accept P(T > 40 T < 55) but do not
accept just P(A B).

P(40<T <55)

P(T >40)
(A1)

0.461944…

0.574136…
(A1)

P(T < 55 T > 40) = 0. 804590 …

= 0. 805 A1

[4 marks]

(c.ii) Ten employees are selected at random from this large group.

Find the probability that exactly five of them work less than 55 hours per week. [3]

Markscheme

Note: Do not penalize for inclusion or non-inclusion of endpoints for probabilities using a normal
distribution. For example, for P(T < 55 T > 40) accept P(T ≤ 55 T > 40), P(T ≤ 55 T ≥ 40),
etc.
 recognizing binomial probability (M1)

X~B(n, p)

n = 10 and p = 0. 804589 … (A1)

0. 0242111 … , 0. 0240188 … using p = 0. 805

P(X = 5) = 0. 0242 A1

[3 marks]

It is known that P(a ≤ T ≤ b) = 0. 904 and that P(T > b) = 2P(T < a), where a and b are numbers of
hours worked per week. An employee who works fewer than a hours per week is considered to be a part-
time employee.

(d) Find the maximum time, in hours per week, that an employee can work and still
be considered part-time. [4]

Markscheme

Note: Do not penalize for inclusion or non-inclusion of endpoints for probabilities using a normal
distribution. For example, for P(T < 55 T > 40) accept P(T ≤ 55 T > 40), P(T ≤ 55 T ≥ 40),
etc.

Let P(T < a) = x

recognition that probabilities sum to 1 (seen anywhere) (M1)

EITHER

expressing the three regions in one variable (M1)

x + 0. 904 + 2x OR P(T < a) + 0. 904 + 2P(T < a) OR 1

2
P(T > b) + 0. 904 + P(T > b) OR
x and 2x correctly indicated on labelled bell diagram

P(T < a) + 0. 904 + 2P(T < a) = 1 OR 1

2
P(T > b) + 0. 904 + P(T > b) = 1 (or equivalent)
(A1)

OR
expressing either P(T < a) or P(T > b) only in terms of P(a ≤ T ≤ b) (M1)

(P(T < a) =)
1

3
(1 − P(a ≤ T ≤ b)) OR (P(T > b) =)
2

3
⋅ (1 − P(a ≤ T ≤ b))

x =
1
3
(1 − 0. 904)(= 0. 032) OR P(T > b) =
2
3
(1 − 0. 904)(= 0. 064) (A1)

THEN

P(T < a) = 0. 032

a = 22. 18167 …

a = 22. 2 accept 22. 1 A1

[4 marks]
9. [Maximum mark: 16] 22M.1.SL.TZ2.9
A biased four-sided die with faces labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 is rolled and the result recorded. Let X be the result
obtained when the die is rolled. The probability distribution for X is given in the following table where p
and q are constants.

For this probability distribution, it is known that E(X) = 2 .

(a) Show that p = 0. 4 and q = 0. 2 . [5]

Markscheme

uses ∑ P(X = x) = 1 to form a linear equation in p and q (M1)

correct equation in terms of p and q from summing to 1 A1

p + 0. 3 + q + 0. 1 = 1 OR p + q = 0. 6 (or equivalent)

uses E(X) = 2 to form a linear equation in p and q (M1)

correct equation in terms of p and q from E(X) = 2 A1

p + 0. 6 + 3q + 0. 4 = 2 OR p + 3q = 1 (or equivalent)

Note: The marks for using ∑ P(X = x) = 1 and the marks for using E(X) = 2 may be awarded
independently of each other.

evidence of correctly solving these equations simultaneously A1

for example, 2q = 0. 4 ⇒ q = 0. 2 or p + 3 × (0. 6 − p) = 1 ⇒ p = 0. 4

so p = 0. 4 and q = 0. 2 AG

[5 marks]

(b) Find P(X > 2) . [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

 P(X > 2) = P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) OR P(X > 2) = 1 − P(X = 1) − P(X = 2)

= 0. 3 A1

[2 marks]

Nicky plays a game with this four-sided die. In this game she is allowed a maximum of five rolls. Her score is
calculated by adding the results of each roll. Nicky wins the game if her score is at least ten.

After three rolls of the die, Nicky has a score of four.

(c) Assuming that rolls of the die are independent, find the probability that Nicky wins the
game. [5]

Markscheme

recognises at least one of the valid scores (6, 7 , or 8) required to win the game (M1)

Note: Award M0 if candidate also considers scores other than 6, 7 , or 8 (such as 5).

let T represent the score on the last two rolls

a score of 6 is obtained by rolling (2, 4), (4, 2) or (3, 3)

A1
2
P(T = 6) = 2(0. 3)(0. 1) + (0. 2) (= 0. 1)

a score of 7 is obtained by rolling (3, 4) or (4, 3)

P(T = 7) = 2(0. 2)(0. 1) (= 0. 04) A1

a score of 8 is obtained by rolling (4, 4)

A1
2
P(T = 8) = (0. 1) (= 0. 01)

Note: The above 3 A1 marks are independent of each other.

P(Nicky wins) = 0. 1 + 0. 04 + 0. 01

= 0. 15 A1
 [5 marks]

David has two pairs of unbiased four-sided dice, a yellow pair and a red pair.

Both yellow dice have faces labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4. Let S represent the sum obtained by rolling the two
yellow dice. The probability distribution for S is shown below.

The first red die has faces labelled 1, 2, 2 and 3. The second red die has faces labelled 1, a, a and b, where
a < b and a, b ∈ Z . The probability distribution for the sum obtained by rolling the red pair is the same as
+

the distribution for the sum obtained by rolling the yellow pair.

(d) Determine the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

3 + b = 8 (M1)

b = 5 A1

[2 marks]

(e) Find the value of a, providing evidence for your answer. [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

EITHER

4
P(S = 5) =
16

P(S = a + 2) =
16
4
A1

⇒ a + 2 = 5

OR

3
P(S = 6) =
16
P(S = a + 3) =
2

16
and P(S = 5 + 1) =
1

16
A1

⇒ a + 3 = 6

OR

3
P(S = 4) =
16

P(S = a + 1) =
2

16
and P(S = 1 + 3) =
1

16
A1

⇒ a + 1 = 4

THEN

⇒ a = 3 A1

Note: Award A0A0 for a = 3 obtained without working/reasoning/justification.

METHOD 2

EITHER

correctly lists a relevant part of the sample space A1

for example, {S = 4} = {(3, 1), (1, a), (1, a)} or {S = 5} = {(2, a), (2, a), (2, a), (2, a)}

or {S = 6} = {(3, a), (3, a), (1, 5)}

a + 3 = 6

OR

eliminates possibilities (exhaustion) for a < 5

convincingly shows that a ≠ 2, 4 A1

a ≠ 4 , for example, P(S = 7) =

2

16
from (2, 5), (2, 5) and so

(3, a), (3, a) ⇒ a + 3 ≠ 7

THEN

⇒ a = 3 A1
[2 marks]
10. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ1.6
Let A and B be two independent events such that P(A ∩ B′ ) = 0. 16 and P(A′∩B) = 0. 36 .

(a) Given that P(A ∩ B) = x , find the value of x. [4]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

EITHER

one of P(A) = x + 0. 16 OR P(B) = x + 0. 36 A1

OR

A1

THEN

attempt to equate their P(A ∩ B) with their expression for P(A) × P(B) M1

P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) ⇒ x = (x + 0. 16) × (x + 0. 36) A1

x = 0. 24 A1

METHOD 2

attempt to form at least one equation in P(A) and P(B) using independence M1

(P(A ∩ B′) = P(A) × P (B′) ⇒) P(A) × (1 − P(B)) = 0. 16 OR

(P(A′∩B) = P(A′) × P (B) ⇒) (1 − P(A)) × P(B) = 0. 36

P(A) = 0. 4 and P(B) = 0. 6 A1

 P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) = 0. 4 × 0. 6 (A1)

x = 0. 24 A1

[4 marks]

(b) Find P(A′ B′) . [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

recognising P(A′ B′) = P(A′) (M1)

= 1 − 0. 16 − 0. 24

= 0. 6 A1

METHOD 2

P(B) = 0. 36 + 0. 24(= 0. 6)

P(A′∩B′)
P(A′ B′) =
P(B′)
(=
0.24

0.4
) (A1)

= 0. 6 A1

[2 marks]
11. [Maximum mark: 16] 22M.2.SL.TZ1.9
A bakery makes two types of muffins: chocolate muffins and banana muffins.

The weights, C grams, of the chocolate muffins are normally distributed with a mean of 62 g and standard
deviation of 2. 9 g.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected chocolate muffin weighs less than 61 g. [2]

Markscheme

P(C < 61) (M1)

= 0. 365112 …

= 0. 365 A1

[2 marks]

(b) In a random selection of 12 chocolate muffins, find the probability that exactly 5 weigh less
than 61 g. [2]

Markscheme

recognition of binomial eg X~B(12, 0. 365 …) (M1)

P(X = 5) = 0. 213666 …

= 0. 214 A1

[2 marks]

The weights, B grams, of the banana muffins are normally distributed with a mean of 68 g and standard
deviation of 3. 4 g.

Each day 60% of the muffins made are chocolate.

On a particular day, a muffin is randomly selected from all those made at the bakery.

(c.i) Find the probability that the randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g. [4]

Markscheme

Let CM represent ‘chocolate muffin’ and BM represent ‘banana muffin’

 P(B < 61) = 0. 0197555. . . (A1)

EITHER

P(CM ) × P(C < 61 CM ) + P(BM ) × P(B < 61 BM ) (or equivalent in words) (M1)

OR

tree diagram showing two ways to have a muffin weigh < 61 (M1)

THEN

(0. 6 × 0. 365 …) + (0. 4 × 0. 0197 …) (A1)

= 0. 226969 …

= 0. 227 A1

[4 marks]

(c.ii) Given that a randomly selected muffin weighs less than 61 g, find the probability that it is
chocolate. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols, not just P(A B)

0.6×0.365112…

0.226969…
(A1)

= 0. 965183 …

= 0. 965 A1

[3 marks]

The machine that makes the chocolate muffins is adjusted so that the mean weight of the chocolate muffins
remains the same but their standard deviation changes to σ g. The machine that makes the banana muffins is
not adjusted. The probability that the weight of a randomly selected muffin from these machines is less than
61 g is now 0. 157.

(d) Find the value of σ. [5]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P(CM ) × P(C < 61 CM ) × P(BM ) × P(B < 61 BM ) = 0. 157 (M1)

(0. 6 × P(C < 61)) + (0. 4 × 0. 0197555 …) = 0. 157

P(C < 61) = 0. 248496 … (A1)

attempt to solve for σ using GDC (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a graph or table of values to show their P(C < 61) with a variable standard
deviation.

σ = 1. 47225 …

σ = 1. 47 (g) A2

METHOD 2

P(CM ) × P(C < 61 CM ) × P(BM ) × P(B < 61 BM ) = 0. 157 (M1)

(0. 6 × P(C < 61)) + (0. 4 × 0. 0197555 …) = 0. 157

P(C < 61) = 0. 248496 … (A1)

use of inverse normal to find z score of their P(C < 61) (M1)

z = −0. 679229 …

correct substitution (A1)

61−62
= −0. 679229 …
σ

σ = 1. 47225 …

σ = 1. 47 (g) A1

[5 marks]
12. [Maximum mark: 6] 22M.2.SL.TZ2.4
Events A and B are independent and P(A) = 3P(B) .

Given that P(A ∪ B) = 0. 68 , find P(B). [6]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B) = 0. 68

substitution of P(A) ⋅ P(B) for P(A ∩ B) in P(A ∪ B) (M1)

P(A) + P(B) − P(A)P(B) (= 0. 68)

substitution of 3P(B) for P(A) (M1)

3P(B) + P(B) − 3P(B)P(B) = 0. 68 (or equivalent) (A1)

Note: The first two M marks are independent of each other.

attempts to solve their quadratic equation (M1)

1 17
P(B) = 0. 2, 1. 133 … ( , )
5 15

P(B) = 0. 2 (=
1

5
) A2

Note: Award A1 if both answers are given as final answers for P(B).

[6 marks]
13. [Maximum mark: 18] 22M.2.SL.TZ2.9
The time it takes Suzi to drive from home to work each morning is normally distributed with a mean of 35
minutes and a standard deviation of σ minutes.

On 25% of days, it takes Suzi longer than 40 minutes to drive to work.

(a) Find the value of σ. [4]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

2
T ~N(35, σ )

P(T > 40) = 0. 25 or P(T < 40) = 0. 75 (M1)

attempt to solve for σ graphically or numerically using the GDC (M1)

graph of normal curve T ~N(35, σ ) for P(T > 40) and y

2
= 0. 25 OR P(T < 40) and y = 0. 75

OR table of values for P(T < 40) or P(T > 40)

σ = 7. 413011 …

σ = 7. 41 (min) A2

METHOD 2

2
T ~N(35, σ )

P(T > 40) = 0. 25 or P(T < 40) = 0. 75 (M1)

z = 0. 674489 … (A1)

valid equation using their z-score (clearly identified as z-score and not a probability) (M1)

40−35

σ
= 0. 674489 … OR 5 = 0. 674489 … σ

7. 413011 …

σ = 7. 41 (min) A1

[4 marks]

(b) On a randomly selected day, find the probability that Suzi’s drive to work will take longer
than 45 minutes. [2]
 Markscheme

P(T > 45) (M1)

= 0. 0886718 …

= 0. 0887 A1

[2 marks]

Suzi will be late to work if it takes her longer than 45 minutes to drive to work. The time it takes to drive to
work each day is independent of any other day.

Suzi will work five days next week.

(c) Find the probability that she will be late to work at least one day next week. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

L~B(5, 0. 0886718 …)

P(L ≥ 1) = 1 − P(L = 0) OR

P(L ≥ 1) = P(L = 1) + P(L = 2) + P(L = 3) + P(L = 4) + P(L = 5) (M1)

0. 371400 …

P(L ≥ 1) = 0. 371 A1

[3 marks]

(d) Given that Suzi will be late to work at least one day next week, find the probability that she
will be late less than three times. [5]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability in context (M1)

finding {L < 3} ∩ {L ≥ 1} = {L = 1, L = 2} (may be seen in conditional probability) (A1)

P(L = 1) + P(L = 2) = 0. 36532 … (may be seen in conditional probability) (A1)

 P (L < 3 L ≥ 1) =
0.36532…

0.37140…
(A1)

0. 983636 …

0. 984 A1

[5 marks]

Suzi will work 22 days this month. She will receive a bonus if she is on time at least 20 of those days.

So far this month, she has worked 16 days and been on time 15 of those days.

(e) Find the probability that Suzi will receive a bonus. [4]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

recognizing that Suzi can be late no more than once (in the remaining six days) (M1)

X~B(6, 0. 0886718 …) , where X is the number of days late (A1)

P(X ≤ 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) (M1)

= 0. 907294 …

P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0. 907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

METHOD 2

recognizing that Suzi must be on time at least five times (of the remaining six days) (M1)

X~B(6, 0. 911328 …) , where X is the number of days on time (A1)

P(X ≥ 5) = 1 − P(X ≤ 4) OR 1 − 0. 0927052 … OR P(X = 5)+(X = 6) OR

0. 334434 … + 0. 572860 … (M1)

= 0. 907294 …

P(Suzi gets a bonus) = 0. 907 A1

Note: The first two marks may be awarded independently.

[4 marks]
14. [Maximum mark: 7] 22M.2.AHL.TZ2.8
Rachel and Sophia are competing in a javelin-throwing competition.

The distances, R metres, thrown by Rachel can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean
56. 5 and standard deviation 3.

The distances, S metres, thrown by Sophia can be modelled by a normal distribution with mean
57. 5 and standard deviation 1. 8.

In the first round of competition, each competitor must have five throws. To qualify for the next
round of competition, a competitor must record at least one throw of 60 metres or greater in the
first round.

Find the probability that only one of Rachel or Sophia qualifies for the next round of competition. [7]

Markscheme

Rachel: R~N(56. 5, 3 2
)

P(R ≥ 60) = 0. 1216 … (A1)

Sophia: S~N(57. 5, 1. 8 2
)

P(S ≥ 60) = 0. 0824 … (A1)

recognises binomial distribution with n = 5 (M1)

let N represent the number of Rachel’s throws that are longer than 60 metres
R

N R ~B(5, 0. 1216 …)

either P(N R ≥ 1) = 0. 4772 … or P(N R = 0) = 0. 5227 … (A1)

let N represent the number of Sophia’s throws that are longer than 60 metres
S

N S ~B(5, 0. 0824 …)

either P(N S ≥ 1) = 0. 3495 … or P(N S = 0) = 0. 6504 … (A1)

EITHER

uses P(N R ≥ 1)P(N S = 0) + P(N S ≥ 1)P(N R = 0) (M1)

P(one of Rachel or Sophia qualif y) = (0. 4772 … × 0. 6504) + (0. 3495 … × 0. 5227 …)

OR

uses P(N R ≥ 1) + P(N S ≥ 1) − 2 × P(N R ≥ 1) × P(N S ≥ 1) (M1)

P(one of Rachel or Sophia qualif y) = 0. 4772 … + 0. 3495 … − 2 × 0. 4772 … × 0. 3495 …

THEN

= 0. 4931 …

= 0. 493 A1

Note: M marks are not dependent on the previous A marks.

[7 marks]
15. [Maximum mark: 5] 21N.1.SL.TZ0.4
Box 1 contains 5 red balls and 2 white balls.

Box 2 contains 4 red balls and 3 white balls.

(a) A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. Find the probability that the ball is red. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach to find P(R) (M1)

tree diagram (must include probabilty of picking box) with correct required probabilities

OR P(R ∩ B 1 ) + P(R ∩ B 2 ) OR P(R B 1 )P(B 1 ) + P(R B 2 )P(B 2 )

7
⋅
1

2
+
4

7
⋅
1

2
(A1)

P(R) =
9

14
A1

[3 marks]

(b) Let A be the event that “box 1 is chosen” and let R be the event that “a red ball is drawn”.

Determine whether events A and R are independent. [2]

Markscheme

events A and R are not independent, since 9

14
⋅
1

2
≠
5

14
OR 5

7
≠
9

14
OR 5

9
≠
1

OR an explanation e.g. different number of red balls in each box A2

Note: Both conclusion and reasoning are required. Do not split the A2.

[2 marks]
16. [Maximum mark: 5] 21N.1.SL.TZ0.4
Box 1 contains 5 red balls and 2 white balls.

Box 2 contains 4 red balls and 3 white balls.

(a) A box is chosen at random and a ball is drawn. Find the probability that the ball is red. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach to find P(R) (M1)

tree diagram (must include probabilty of picking box) with correct required probabilities

OR P(R ∩ B 1 ) + P(R ∩ B 2 ) OR P(R B 1 )P(B 1 ) + P(R B 2 )P(B 2 )

7
⋅
1

2
+
4

7
⋅
1

2
(A1)

P(R) =
9

14
A1

[3 marks]

(b) Let A be the event that “box 1 is chosen” and let R be the event that “a red ball is drawn”.

Determine whether events A and R are independent. [2]

Markscheme

events A and R are not independent, since 9

14
⋅
1

2
≠
5

14
OR 5

7
≠
9

14
OR 5

9
≠
1

OR an explanation e.g. different number of red balls in each box A2

Note: Both conclusion and reasoning are required. Do not split the A2.

[2 marks]
17. [Maximum mark: 16] 21N.2.SL.TZ0.9
The random variable X follows a normal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ.

(a) Find P(μ − 1. 5σ < X < μ + 1. 5σ) . [3]

Markscheme

(M1)
μ−1.5σ−μ X−μ μ+1.5σ−μ
P( < < )
σ σ σ

P (−1. 5 < Z < 1. 5) OR 1 − 2 × P(Z < −1. 5) (A1)

P(−1. 5 < Z < 1. 5) = 0. 866385 …

P(μ − 1. 5σ < X < μ + 1. 5σ) = 0. 866 A1

Note: Do not award any marks for use of their answers from part (b).

[3 marks]

The avocados grown on a farm have weights, in grams, that are normally distributed with mean μ and
standard deviation σ. Avocados are categorized as small, medium, large or premium, according to their
weight. The following table shows the probability an avocado grown on the farm is classified as small,
medium, large or premium.

The maximum weight of a small avocado is 106. 2 grams.

The minimum weight of a premium avocado is 182. 6 grams.

(b) Find the value of μ and of σ. [5]

Markscheme

z 1 = −1. 75068 … and z 2 = 1. 30468 … (seen anywhere) (A1)

correct equations (A1)(A1)

106.2−μ
= −1. 75068 … , μ + 1. 30468 … σ = 182. 6
σ

attempt to solve their equations involving z values (M1)

 μ = 149. 976. . . , σ = 25. 0051 …

μ = 150, σ = 25. 0 A1

[5 marks]

A supermarket purchases all the avocados from the farm that weigh more than 106. 2 grams.

Find the probability that an avocado chosen at random from this purchase is categorized as

(c.i) medium. [2]

Markscheme

new sample space is 96% (may be seen in (ii) or (iii)) (M1)

P(medium|not small) OR 0.576

0.96

P(Medium) = 0. 6 A1

[2 marks]

(c.ii) large. [1]

Markscheme

P(Large) = 0. 3 A1

[1 mark]

(c.iii) premium. [1]

Markscheme

P(Premium) = 0. 1 A1

[1 mark]
(d) The selling prices of the different categories of avocado at this supermarket are shown in
the following table:

The supermarket pays the farm $ 200 for the avocados and assumes it will then sell them
in exactly the same proportion as purchased from the farm.

According to this model, find the minimum number of avocados that must be sold so that
the net profit for the supermarket is at least $ 438. [4]

Markscheme

attempt to express revenue from avocados (M1)

1. 1 × 0. 6 + 1. 29 × 0. 3 + 1. 96 × 0. 1 OR 1. 243n

correct inequality or equation for net profit in terms of n (A1)

1. 1 × 0. 6n + 1. 29 × 0. 3n + 1. 96 × 0. 1n − 200 ≥ 438 OR 1. 243n − 200 = 438

attempt to solve the inequality (M1)

sketch OR n = 513. 274. . .

n = 514 A1

Note: Only award follow through in part (d) for 3 probabilities which add up to 1. FT of probabilities
from c) that do not add up to 1 should only be awarded M marks, where appropriate, in d).

[4 marks]
18. [Maximum mark: 7] 21N.2.SL.TZ0.4
A factory manufactures lamps. It is known that the probability that a lamp is found to be defective is 0. 05. A
random sample of 30 lamps is tested.

(a) Find the probability that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample. [3]

Markscheme

recognize that the variable has a Binomial distribution (M1)

X~B(30, 0. 05)

attempt to find P(X ≥ 1) (M1)

1 − P(X = 0) OR 1 − 0. 95
30
OR 1 − 0. 214638 … OR 0. 785361 …

Note: The two M marks are independent of each other.

P(X ≥ 1)=0.785 A1

[3 marks]

(b) Given that there is at least one defective lamp in the sample, find the probability that there
are at most two defective lamps. [4]

Markscheme

recognition of conditional probability (M1)

P(X ≤ 2 X ≥ 1) OR P(at most 2 def ective | at least 1 def ective)

Note: Recognition must be shown in context either in words or symbols but not just P(A B) .

P(1≤X≤2) P(X=1)+P(X=2)

P(X≥1)
OR P(X≥1)
(A1)

0.597540…
0.785361…
OR 0.812178…−0.214638…

0.785361…
OR 0.338903…+0.258636…

0.785361…
(A1)

= 0. 760847 …

P(X ≤ 2 X ≥ 1) = 0. 761 A1
[4 marks]
19. [Maximum mark: 6] 21M.2.SL.TZ1.3
A company produces bags of sugar whose masses, in grams, can be modelled by a normal distribution with
mean 1000 and standard deviation 3. 5. A bag of sugar is rejected for sale if its mass is less than 995 grams.

(a) Find the probability that a bag selected at random is rejected. [2]

Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

evidence of identifying the correct area (M1)

P(X < 995) = 0. 0765637 …

= 0. 0766 A1

[2 marks]

(b) Estimate the number of bags which will be rejected from a random sample of 100 bags. [1]

Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

0. 0766 × 100

≈ 8 A1

Note: Accept 7. 66.

[1 mark]

(c) Given that a bag is not rejected, find the probability that it has a mass greater than 1005
grams. [3]
Markscheme

Note: In this question, do not penalise incorrect use of strict inequality signs.

Let X = mass of a bag of sugar

recognition that P(X > 1005 X ≥ 995) is required (M1)

P(X≥995∩X>1005)

P(X≥995)

P(X>1005)

P(X≥995)
(A1)

0.0765637… 0.0765637…
(= )
1−0.0765637… 0.923436…

= 0. 0829 A1

[3 marks]
20. [Maximum mark: 8] 21M.2.SL.TZ2.4
At a school, 70% of the students play a sport and 20% of the students are involved in theatre. 18% of the
students do neither activity.

A student is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that the student plays a sport and is involved in theatre. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

P(S) + P(T ) + P(S′∩T ′) − P(S ∩ T ) = 1 OR P(S ∪ T ) = P((S′∩T ′)') (M1)

0. 7 + 0. 2 + 0. 18 − P(S ∩ T ) = 1 OR P(S ∪ T ) = 1 − 0. 18

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram (M1)

THEN

P (S ∩ T ) = 0. 08 (accept 8%) A1

Note: To obtain the M1 for the Venn diagram all labels must be correct and in the correct sections. For
example, do not accept 0. 7 in the area corresponding to S ∩ T ′.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the probability that the student is involved in theatre, but does not play a sport. [2]

Markscheme

EITHER

P(T ∩ S′) = P(T ) − P(T ∩ S)(= 0. 2 − 0. 08) OR

P(T ∩ S′) = P(T ∪ S) − P(S)(= 0. 82 − 0. 7) (M1)

OR

a clearly labelled Venn diagram including P(S), P(T ) and P(S ∩ T ) (M1)
 THEN

= 0. 12 (accept 12%) A1

[2 marks]

At the school 48% of the students are girls, and 25% of the girls are involved in theatre.

A student is selected at random. Let G be the event “the student is a girl” and let T be the event “the student
is involved in theatre”.

(c) Find P(G ∩ T ). [2]

Markscheme

P(G ∩ T ) = P(T /G)P(G) (0. 25 × 0. 48) (M1)

= 0. 12 A1

[2 marks]

(d) Determine if the events G and T are independent. Justify your answer. [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P(G) × P(T )(= 0. 48 × 0. 2) = 0. 096 A1

P(G) × P(T )≠P(G ∩ T )⇒ G and T are not independent R1

METHOD 2

P(T G) = 0. 25 A1

P(T G) ≠ P(T )⇒ G and T are not independent R1

Note: Do not award A0R1.

[2 marks]
21. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.S_1
In a class of 30 students, 19 play tennis, 3 play both tennis and volleyball, and 6 do not play either sport.

The following Venn diagram shows the events “plays tennis” and “plays volleyball”. The values t and v
represent numbers of students.

(a.i) Find the value of t. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach to find t (M1)

eg t + 3 = 19, 19 − 3

t = 16 (may be seen on Venn diagram) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Find the value of v. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach to find v (M1)

eg t + 3 + v + 6 = 30, 30 − 19 − 6

v = 5 (may be seen on Venn diagram) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b) Find the probability that a randomly selected student from the class plays tennis
or volleyball, but not both. [2]

Markscheme
valid approach (M1)

eg ,
16 + 5 21 students, 1 − 3+6

30
,

21

30
(=
7

10
) A1 N2

[2 marks]
22. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_6
Srinivasa places the nine labelled balls shown below into a box.

Srinivasa then chooses two balls at random, one at a time, from the box. The first ball is not replaced before
he chooses the second.

(a.i) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A. [1]

Markscheme

9
(
1

3
, 0. 333, 0. 333333 … , 33. 3%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the probability that the first ball chosen is labelled A or labelled N. [1]

Markscheme

5
9
(0. 556, 0. 555555 … , 55. 6%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

(b) Find the probability that the second ball chosen is labelled A, given that the first
ball chosen was labelled N. [2]

Markscheme

8
(0. 375, 37. 5%) (A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that both balls chosen are labelled N. [2]

Markscheme
2

9
×
1

8
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for a correct compound probability calculation seen.

2
72
(
1
36
, 0. 0278, 0. 0277777 … , 2. 78%) (A1) (C2)

[2 marks]
23. [Maximum mark: 6] 20N.1.SL.TZ0.T_14
Andre will play in the semi-final of a tennis tournament.

If Andre wins the semi-final he will progress to the final. If Andre loses the semi-final, he will not progress to
the final.

If Andre wins the final, he will be the champion.

The probability that Andre will win the semi-final is p. If Andre wins the semi-final, then the probability he
will be the champion is 0. 6.

(a) Complete the values in the tree diagram.

[1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure. It appeared in a paper that permitted the use of a calculator, and so might not be suitable
for all forms of practice.

(A1) (C1)

Note: Award (A1) for the correct pair of probabilities.

[1 mark]
The probability that Andre will not be the champion is 0. 58.

(b) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

p × 0. 4 + (1 − p) = 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying and adding correct probabilities for losing equated to 0. 58.

OR

p × 0. 6 = 1 − 0. 58 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities for winning equated to 1 − 0. 58 or 0. 42 .

(p =) 0. 7 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their part (a). Award the final (A1)(ft) only if their p is within the range
0 < p < 1.

[2 marks]

(c) Given that Andre did not become the champion, find the probability that he lost in the
semi-final. [3]

Markscheme

0.3

0.58
(
1−0.7

0.58
) (A1)(ft)(A1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part (b). Award (A1) for the correct
denominator.

OR

0.3

0.3+0.7×0.4
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their correct numerator. Follow through from part (b). Award (A1)(ft) for their
correct calculation of Andre losing the semi-final or winning the semi-final and then losing in the final.
Follow through from their parts (a) and (b).
15

29
(0. 517, 0. 517241 … , 51. 7%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through from parts (a) and (b).

[3 marks]
24. [Maximum mark: 14] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.S_9
Fiona walks from her house to a bus stop where she gets a bus to school. Her time, W minutes, to walk to the
bus stop is normally distributed with W ~N(12, 3 ). 2

Fiona always leaves her house at 07:15. The first bus that she can get departs at 07:30.

(a) Find the probability that it will take Fiona between 15 minutes and 30 minutes to walk
to the bus stop. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

0. 158655

P(15 < W < 30) = 0. 159 A2 N2

[2 marks]

The length of time, B minutes, of the bus journey to Fiona’s school is normally distributed with
B~N(50, σ ). The probability that the bus journey takes less than 60 minutes is 0. 941.
2

(b) Find σ. [3]

Markscheme

finding standardized value for 60 (A1)

eg z = 1. 56322

correct substitution using their z-value (A1)

eg 60−50

σ
= 1. 56322,
60−50

1.56322
= σ

6. 39703

σ = 6. 40 A1 N3

[3 marks]

(c) Find the probability that the bus journey takes less than 45 minutes. [2]

Markscheme

0. 217221
 P(B < 45) = 0 .217 A2 N2

[2 marks]

If Fiona misses the first bus, there is a second bus which departs at 07:45. She must arrive at school by 08:30 to
be on time. Fiona will not arrive on time if she misses both buses. The variables W and B are independent.

(d) Find the probability that Fiona will arrive on time. [5]

Markscheme

valid attempt to find one possible way of being on time (do not penalize incorrect use of strict
inequality signs) (M1)

eg W ≤ 15 and B ,
< 60 15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45

correct calculation for P(W ≤ 15 and B < 60) (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0. 841 × 0. 941, 0. 7917

correct calculation for P(15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45) (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0. 159 × 0. 217, 0. 03446

correct working (A1)

eg 0. 841 × 0. 941 + 0. 159 × 0. 217, 0. 7917 + 0. 03446

0. 826168

P (on time) = 0. 826 A1 N2

[5 marks]

(e) This year, Fiona will go to school on 183 days.

Calculate the number of days Fiona is expected to arrive on time. [2]

Markscheme

recognizing binomial with n = 183, p = 0. 826168 (M1)

eg X~B(183, 0. 826)

151. 188 (151. 158 from 3 sf )

151 A1 N2
[2 marks]
25. [Maximum mark: 12] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.T_2
On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The amusement park’s main attractions are
rollercoasters (R), water slides (W ), and virtual reality rides (V ).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are shown in the Venn diagram.

A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.

(a.i) Find the value of a. [2]

Markscheme

74 − (32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 − 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(a =) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Find the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

100 − (74 + 18) (M1)

OR

100 − 92 (M1)

OR

100 − (32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

 Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through from part (a)(i) but only for a ≥ 0 .

(b =) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of b must be greater or equal to zero for the (A1)(ft) to be
awarded.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the number of students who visited at least two types of main attraction. [2]

Markscheme

9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(c) Write down the value of n( R ∩ W ) . [1]

Markscheme

14 (A1)

[1 mark]

(d.i) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the rollercoasters. [2]

Markscheme

58

100
(
29

50
, 0. 58, 58%) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct denominator. Award (A0) for 58 only.
 [2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the virtual reality rides. [1]

Markscheme

45

100
(
9

20
, 0. 45, 45%) (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]

(e) Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii) are independent. Justify your
reasoning. [2]

Markscheme

they are not independent (A1)(ft)

58

100
×
45

100
≠
17

100
OR 0. 261 ≠ 0. 17 (R1)

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be awarded.

Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]
26. [Maximum mark: 14] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.S_9
Fiona walks from her house to a bus stop where she gets a bus to school. Her time, W minutes, to walk to the
bus stop is normally distributed with W ~N(12, 3 ). 2

Fiona always leaves her house at 07:15. The first bus that she can get departs at 07:30.

(a) Find the probability that it will take Fiona between 15 minutes and 30 minutes to walk
to the bus stop. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

0. 158655

P(15 < W < 30) = 0. 159 A2 N2

[2 marks]

The length of time, B minutes, of the bus journey to Fiona’s school is normally distributed with
B~N(50, σ ). The probability that the bus journey takes less than 60 minutes is 0. 941.
2

(b) Find σ. [3]

Markscheme

finding standardized value for 60 (A1)

eg z = 1. 56322

correct substitution using their z-value (A1)

eg 60−50

σ
= 1. 56322,
60−50

1.56322
= σ

6. 39703

σ = 6. 40 A1 N3

[3 marks]

(c) Find the probability that the bus journey takes less than 45 minutes. [2]

Markscheme

0. 217221
 P(B < 45) = 0 .217 A2 N2

[2 marks]

If Fiona misses the first bus, there is a second bus which departs at 07:45. She must arrive at school by 08:30 to
be on time. Fiona will not arrive on time if she misses both buses. The variables W and B are independent.

(d) Find the probability that Fiona will arrive on time. [5]

Markscheme

valid attempt to find one possible way of being on time (do not penalize incorrect use of strict
inequality signs) (M1)

eg W ≤ 15 and B ,
< 60 15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45

correct calculation for P(W ≤ 15 and B < 60) (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0. 841 × 0. 941, 0. 7917

correct calculation for P(15 < W ≤ 30 and B < 45) (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0. 159 × 0. 217, 0. 03446

correct working (A1)

eg 0. 841 × 0. 941 + 0. 159 × 0. 217, 0. 7917 + 0. 03446

0. 826168

P (on time) = 0. 826 A1 N2

[5 marks]

(e) This year, Fiona will go to school on 183 days.

Calculate the number of days Fiona is expected to arrive on time. [2]

Markscheme

recognizing binomial with n = 183, p = 0. 826168 (M1)

eg X~B(183, 0. 826)

151. 188 (151. 158 from 3 sf )

151 A1 N2
[2 marks]
27. [Maximum mark: 12] 20N.2.SL.TZ0.T_2
On a school excursion, 100 students visited an amusement park. The amusement park’s main attractions are
rollercoasters (R), water slides (W ), and virtual reality rides (V ).

The students were asked which main attractions they visited. The results are shown in the Venn diagram.

A total of 74 students visited the rollercoasters or the water slides.

(a.i) Find the value of a. [2]

Markscheme

74 − (32 + 12 + 10 + 9 + 5) OR 74 − 68 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression.

(a =) 6 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(a.ii) Find the value of b. [2]

Markscheme

100 − (74 + 18) (M1)

OR

100 − 92 (M1)

OR

100 − (32 + 9 + 5 + 12 + 10 + 18 + 6) (M1)

 Note: Award (M1) for setting up a correct expression. Follow through from part (a)(i) but only for a ≥ 0 .

(b =) 8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part(a)(i). The value of b must be greater or equal to zero for the (A1)(ft) to be
awarded.

[2 marks]

(b) Find the number of students who visited at least two types of main attraction. [2]

Markscheme

9 + 5 + 12 + 10 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for adding 9, 5, 12 and 10.

36 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(c) Write down the value of n( R ∩ W ) . [1]

Markscheme

14 (A1)

[1 mark]

(d.i) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the rollercoasters. [2]

Markscheme

58

100
(
29

50
, 0. 58, 58%) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator. Award(A1) for the correct denominator. Award (A0) for 58 only.
 [2 marks]

(d.ii) Find the probability that a randomly selected student visited the virtual reality rides. [1]

Markscheme

45

100
(
9

20
, 0. 45, 45%) (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their denominator from part (d)(i).

[1 mark]

(e) Hence determine whether the events in parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii) are independent. Justify your
reasoning. [2]

Markscheme

they are not independent (A1)(ft)

58

100
×
45

100
≠
17

100
OR 0. 261 ≠ 0. 17 (R1)

Note: Comparison of numerical values must be seen for (R1) to be awarded.

Do not award (A1)(R0). Follow through from parts (d)(i) and (d)(ii).

[2 marks]
28. [Maximum mark: 6] 19N.1.SL.TZ0.S_2
In a class of 30 students, 18 are fluent in Spanish, 10 are fluent in French, and 5 are not fluent in either of
these languages. The following Venn diagram shows the events “fluent in Spanish” and “fluent in French”.

The values m, n, p and q represent numbers of students.

(a) Write down the value of q. [1]

Markscheme

q = 5 A1 N1

[1 mark]

(b) Find the value of n. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg (18 + 10 + 5) − 30 , 28 − 25 , 18 + 10 − n = 25

n = 3 A1 N2

[2 marks]

(c) Write down the value of m and of p. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach for finding m or p (may be seen in part (b)) (M1)

eg 18 − 3 , 3 + p = 10
m = 15 , p = 7 A1A1 N3

[3 marks]
29. [Maximum mark: 15] 19N.2.SL.TZ0.S_9
SpeedWay airline flies from city A to city B. The flight time is normally distributed with a mean of 260
minutes and a standard deviation of 15 minutes.

A flight is considered late if it takes longer than 275 minutes.

(a) Calculate the probability a flight is not late. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg P (X < 275) , 1 − 0.158655

0.841344

0.841 A1 N2

[2 marks]

The flight is considered to be on time if it takes between m and 275 minutes. The probability that a flight is
on time is 0.830.

(b) Find the value of m. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg P (X < 275) − P (X < m) = 0.830

correct working (A1)

eg P (X < m) = 0.0113447

225.820

226 (minutes) A1 N3

[3 marks]

During a week, SpeedWay has 12 flights from city A to city B. The time taken for any flight is independent of
the time taken by any other flight.

(c.i) Calculate the probability that at least 7 of these flights are on time. [3]
 Markscheme

evidence of recognizing binomial distribution (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg n Ca × p
a
× q
n−a
, B (n, p)

evidence of summing probabilities from 7 to 12 (M1)

eg P (X = 7) + P (X = 8) + … + P (X = 12) , 1 − P (X ⩽ 6)

0.991248

0.991 A1 N2

[3 marks]

(c.ii) Given that at least 7 of these flights are on time, find the probability that exactly 10 flights
are on time. [4]

Markscheme

finding P (X = 10) (seen anywhere) A1

12
eg ( ) × 0.83
10
× 0.17
2
(= 0.295952)
10

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

P(X=10∩X⩾7)
eg P (A |B) , P (X = 10 |X ⩾ 7) , P(X⩾7)

correct working (A1)

eg 0.295952

0.991248

0.298565

0.299 A1 N1

Note: Exception to the FT rule: if the candidate uses an incorrect value for the probability that a flight is
on time in (i) and working shown, award full FT in (ii) as appropriate.

[4 marks]

(d) SpeedWay increases the number of flights from city A to city B to 20 flights each week, and
improves their efficiency so that more flights are on time. The probability that at least 19
flights are on time is 0.788.

A flight is chosen at random. Calculate the probability that it is on time. [3]

Markscheme

correct equation (A1)

20
eg ( )p
19
(1 − p) + p
20
= 0.788
19

valid attempt to solve (M1)

eg graph

0.956961

0.957 A1 N1

[3 marks]
30. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.S_1
The following Venn diagram shows the events A and B, where P (A) = 0.3 . The values shown are
probabilities.

(a) Find the value of p. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

valid approach (M1)

eg 0.30 − 0.1, p + 0.1 = 0.3

p = 0.2 A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b) Find the value of q. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − (0.3 + 0.4), 1 − 0.4 − 0.1 − p

q = 0.3 A1 N2

[2 marks]

(c) Find P (A ′
∪ B). [2]
Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg 0.7 + 0.5 − 0.3 , p + q + 0.4 , 1 − 0.1 , ′ ′ ′

P (A ∪ B) = P (A ) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B)

′
P (A ∪ B) = 0.9 A1 N2

[2 marks]
31. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.T_5
A florist sells bouquets of roses. The florist recorded, in Table 1, the number of roses in each bouquet sold to
customers.

Table 1

The roses can be arranged into bouquets of size small, medium or large. The data from Table 1 has been
organized into a cumulative frequency table, Table 2.

Table 2

(a) Complete the cumulative frequency table. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for 10; (A1)(ft) for the last column all correct. Follow through from their 10 for their 50 in
the last column.

[2 marks]

(b) Write down the probability that a bouquet of roses sold is not small. [2]

Markscheme
 35

50
(0.7,
7

10
, 70 % ) (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their numerator being 25 + their 10, and (A1)(ft) for their denominator being their
50. Follow through from part (a).

[2 marks]

(c) A customer buys a large bouquet.

Find the probability that there are 12 roses in this bouquet. [2]

Markscheme

10
(0.4,
2

5
, 40 % ) (A1)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for a numerator of 4 and (A1)(ft) for their 10 as denominator. Follow through from part
(a).

[2 marks]
32. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.T_7
(a)
3

Place the numbers 2π, − 5, 3

−1
and 2 in the correct position on the Venn diagram.
2

[4]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1)(A1)(A1) (C4)

Note: Award (A1) for each number in the correct position.

[4 marks]

(b) In the table indicate which two of the given statements are true by placing a tick (✔) in the
right hand column.
 [2]

Markscheme

(A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for each correctly placed tick.

[2 marks]
33. [Maximum mark: 13] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.S_9
A random variable Z is normally distributed with mean 0 and standard deviation 1. It is known that P(z <
−1.6) = a and P(z > 2.4) = b. This is shown in the following diagram.

(a) Find P(−1.6 < z < 2.4). Write your answer in terms of a and b. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

recognizing area under curve = 1 (M1)

eg a + x + b = 1 , 100 − a − b , 1 − a + b

P (−1.6 < z < 2.4) = 1 − a − b (= 1 − (a + b)) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b) Given that z > −1.6, find the probability that z < 2.4 . Write your answer in terms of a and b. [4]

Markscheme

P (z > −1.6) = 1 − a (seen anywhere) (A1)

recognizing conditional probability (M1)

eg P (A |B), P (B |A)

correct working (A1)

P(z<2.4∩z>−1.6) P(−1.6<z<2.4)
eg P(z>−1.6)
, P(z>−1.6)

P (z < 2.4 |z > −1.6) =

1−a−b

1−a
A1 N4

Note: Do not award the final A1 if correct answer is seen followed by incorrect simplification.

[4 marks]

A second random variable X is normally distributed with mean m and standard deviation s.
It is known that P(x < 1) = a.
(c) Write down the standardized value for x = 1 . [1]

Markscheme

z = −1.6 (may be seen in part (d)) A1 N1

Note: Depending on the candidate’s interpretation of the question, they may give 1−m

s
as the answer
to part (c). Such answers should be awarded the first (M1) in part (d), even when part (d) is left blank. If
the candidate goes on to show z = −1.6 as part of their working in part (d), the A1 in part (c) may be
awarded.

[1 mark]

(d) It is also known that P(x > 2) = b.

Find s. [6]

Markscheme

attempt to standardize x (do not accept x−μ

σ
) (M1)

eg 1−m

s
(may be seen in part (c)), m−2

s
, x−m

correct equation with each z-value (A1)(A1)

eg −1.6 =
1−m

s
, 2.4 =
2−m

s
, m + 2.4s = 2

valid approach (to set up equation in one variable) M1

2−(1.6s+1)
eg 2.4 =
s
, 1−m

−1.6
=
2−m

2.4

correct working (A1)

eg 1.6s + 1 = 2 − 2.4s , 4s = 1 , m =
7

s =
1

4
A1 N2

[6 marks]
34. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ1.T_12
The diagram shows a circular horizontal board divided into six equal sectors. The sectors are labelled white
(W), yellow (Y) and blue (B).

A pointer is pinned to the centre of the board. The pointer is to be spun and when it stops the colour of the
sector on which the pointer stops is recorded. The pointer is equally likely to stop on any of the six sectors.

Eva will spin the pointer twice. The following tree diagram shows all the possible outcomes.

(a) Find the probability that both spins are yellow. [2]

Markscheme
 * This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

2
1

3
×
1

3
OR (
1

3
) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying correct probabilities.

9
(0.111, 0.111111…, 11.1%) (A1) (C2)

[2 marks]

(b) Find the probability that at least one of the spins is yellow. [3]

Markscheme

(
1

2
×
1

3
) + (
1

6
×
1

3
) +
1

3
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for ( 1

2
×
1

3
) and ( 1

6
×
1

3
) or equivalent, and (M1) for 1

3
and adding only the three
correct probabilities.

OR

2
1 − (
2

3
) (M1)(M1)

2
Note: Award (M1) for 2

3
seen and (M1) for subtracting ( 2

3
) from 1. This may be shown in a tree diagram
with “yellow” and “not yellow” branches.

9
(0.556, 0.555555…, 55.6%) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through marks may be awarded if their answer to part (a) is used in a correct calculation.

[3 marks]

(c) Write down the probability that the second spin is yellow, given that the first spin is blue. [1]

Markscheme

3
(0.333, 0.333333…, 33.3%) (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]
35. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ2.T_5
A school café sells three flavours of smoothies: mango (M ), kiwi fruit (K ) and banana (B).
85 students were surveyed about which of these three flavours they like.

35 students liked mango, 37 liked banana, and 26 liked kiwi fruit

2 liked all three flavours
20 liked both mango and banana
14 liked mango and kiwi fruit
3 liked banana and kiwi fruit

(a) Using the given information, complete the following Venn diagram.

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for 18, 12 and 1 in correct place on Venn diagram, (A1) for 3, 16 and 11 in correct place
on Venn diagram.
 [2 marks]

(b) Find the number of surveyed students who did not like any of the three flavours. [2]

Markscheme

85 − (3 + 16 + 11 + 18 + 12 + 1 + 2) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting the sum of their values from 85.

22 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their Venn diagram in part (a).

If any numbers that are being subtracted are negative award (M1)(A0).

[2 marks]

(c) A student is chosen at random from the surveyed students.

Find the probability that this student likes kiwi fruit smoothies given that they like mango
smoothies. [2]

Markscheme

14
35
(
2
5
, 0.4, 40% ) (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator; (A1) for correct denominator. Follow through from their Venn
diagram.

[2 marks]
36. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ2.T_11
Consider the following sets:

The universal set U consists of all positive integers less than 15;
A is the set of all numbers which are multiples of 3;

B is the set of all even numbers.

(a) Write down the elements that belong to A ∩ B. [3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

A = {3, 6, 9, 12} AND B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14} (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for listing all elements of sets A and B. May be seen in part (b). Condone the inclusion
of 15 in set A when awarding the (M1).

6, 12 (A1)(A1) (C3)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct element. Award (A1)(A0) if one additional value seen. Award (A0)(A0) if
two or more additional values are seen.

[3 marks]

(b.i) Write down the elements that belong to A ∩ B . ′

[2]

Markscheme

3, 9 (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from part (a) but only if their A and B are explicitly listed.
Award (A1)(ft) for each correct element. Award (A1)(A0) if one additional value seen. Award (A0)(A0) if two
or more additional values are seen.

[2 marks]

(b.ii) Write down n (A ∩ B ). ′

[1]

Markscheme

2 (A1)(ft) (C1)

Note: Follow through from part (b)(i).

[1 mark]
37. [Maximum mark: 6] 19M.1.SL.TZ2.T_5
A school café sells three flavours of smoothies: mango (M ), kiwi fruit (K ) and banana (B).
85 students were surveyed about which of these three flavours they like.

35 students liked mango, 37 liked banana, and 26 liked kiwi fruit

2 liked all three flavours
20 liked both mango and banana
14 liked mango and kiwi fruit
3 liked banana and kiwi fruit

(a) Using the given information, complete the following Venn diagram.

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for 18, 12 and 1 in correct place on Venn diagram, (A1) for 3, 16 and 11 in correct place
on Venn diagram.
 [2 marks]

(b) Find the number of surveyed students who did not like any of the three flavours. [2]

Markscheme

85 − (3 + 16 + 11 + 18 + 12 + 1 + 2) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting the sum of their values from 85.

22 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from their Venn diagram in part (a).

If any numbers that are being subtracted are negative award (M1)(A0).

[2 marks]

(c) A student is chosen at random from the surveyed students.

Find the probability that this student likes kiwi fruit smoothies given that they like mango
smoothies. [2]

Markscheme

14
35
(
2
5
, 0.4, 40% ) (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator; (A1) for correct denominator. Follow through from their Venn
diagram.

[2 marks]
38. [Maximum mark: 16] 19M.2.SL.TZ1.S_10
There are three fair six-sided dice. Each die has two green faces, two yellow faces and two red faces.

All three dice are rolled.

(a.i) Find the probability of rolling exactly one red face. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach to find P(one red) (M1)

2 3
eg
1 2
n Ca × p
a
× q
n−a
, B (n, p), 3 (
3
)(
3
) , ( )
1

listing all possible cases for exactly one red (may be indicated on tree diagram)

P(1 red) = 0.444 (= 4

9
) [0.444, 0.445] A1 N2

[3 marks] [5 maximum for parts (a.i) and (a.ii)]

(a.ii) Find the probability of rolling two or more red faces. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg P(X = 2) + P(X = 3), 1 − P(X ≤ 1), binomcdf(3, 1

3
, 2, 3)

correct working (A1)

3
eg 2

9
+
1

27
, 0.222 + 0.037 , 1 − (
2

3
) −
4

0.259259

7
P(at least two red) = 0.259 (= 27
) A1 N3

[3 marks] [5 maximum for parts (a.i) and (a.ii)]

Ted plays a game using these dice. The rules are:

Having a turn means to roll all three dice.

He wins $10 for each green face rolled and adds this to his winnings.
After a turn Ted can either:
end the game (and keep his winnings), or
have another turn (and try to increase his winnings).
If two or more red faces are rolled in a turn, all winnings are lost and the game ends.
(b) Show that, after a turn, the probability that Ted adds exactly $10 to his winnings is 1

3
. [5]

Markscheme

recognition that winning $10 means rolling exactly one green (M1)

recognition that winning $10 also means rolling at most 1 red (M1)

eg “cannot have 2 or more reds”

correct approach A1

eg P(1G ∩ 0R) + P(1G ∩ 1R), P(1G) − P(1G ∩ 2R),

“one green and two yellows or one of each colour”

Note: Because this is a “show that” question, do not award this A1 for purely numerical expressions.

one correct probability for their approach (A1)

2 2
eg 3(
1

3
)(
1

3
) , 6

27
,3( 1

3
)(
2

3
) , 1

9
, 2

correct working leading to 1

3
A1

eg 3

27
+
6

27
, 12

27
−
3

27
, 1

9
+
2

probability = 1

3
AG N0

[5 marks]

The random variable D ($) represents how much is added to his winnings after a turn.

The following table shows the distribution for D, where $w represents his winnings in the game so far.

(c.i) Write down the value of x. [1]

Markscheme

x =
7

27
, 0.259 (check FT from (a)(ii)) A1 N1

[1 mark]

(c.ii) Hence, find the value of y. [2]

 Markscheme

evidence of summing probabilities to 1 (M1)

eg ∑ = 1 , x + y +
1

3
+
2

9
+
1

27
= 1 , 1 −
7

27
−
9

27
−
6

27
−
1

27

0.148147 (0.148407 if working with their x value to 3 sf )

y =
4

27
(exact), 0.148 A1 N2

[2 marks]

(d) Ted will always have another turn if he expects an increase to his winnings.

Find the least value of w for which Ted should end the game instead of having another
turn. [3]

Markscheme

correct substitution into the formula for expected value (A1)

eg −w ⋅
7

27
+ 10 ⋅
9

27
+ 20 ⋅
27
6
+ 30 ⋅
1

27

correct critical value (accept inequality) A1

eg w = 34.2857 (=
240

7
) , w > 34.2857

$40 A1 N2

[3 marks]
39. [Maximum mark: 14] 19M.2.SL.TZ2.S_9
At Penna Airport the probability, P(A), that all passengers arrive on time for a flight is 0.70. The probability,
P(D), that a flight departs on time is 0.85. The probability that all passengers arrive on time for a flight and it
departs on time is 0.65.

(a) Show that event A and event D are not independent. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

METHOD 1

multiplication of P(A) and P(D) (A1)

eg 0.70 × 0.85, 0.595

correct reasoning for their probabilities R1

eg 0.595 ≠ 0.65 , 0.70 × 0.85 ≠ P (A ∩ D)

A and D are not independent AG N0

METHOD 2

calculation of P (D |A) (A1)

eg 13

14
, 0.928

correct reasoning for their probabilities R1

eg 0.928 ≠ 0.85 , 0.65

0.7
P (D)

A and D are not independent AG N0

[2 marks]

(b.i) Find P (A ∩ D ). ′
[2]

Markscheme

correct working (A1)

eg P (A) − P (A ∩ D) , 0.7 − 0.65 , correct shading and/or value on Venn diagram

′
P (A ∩ D ) = 0.05 A1 N2
 [2 marks]

(b.ii) Given that all passengers for a flight arrive on time, find the probability that the flight
does not depart on time. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

′
P(D ∩A)
eg P(A)
, P (A |B)

correct working (A1)

0.05
eg 0.7

0.071428

1
′
P (D |A) =
14
, 0.0714 A1 N2

[3 marks]

The number of hours that pilots fly per week is normally distributed with a mean of 25 hours and a standard
deviation σ. 90 % of pilots fly less than 28 hours in a week.

(c) Find the value of σ. [3]

Markscheme

finding standardized value for 28 hours (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg z = 1.28155

correct working to find σ (A1)

eg 1.28155 =
28−25

σ
, 28−25

1.28155

2.34091

σ = 2.34 A1 N2

[3 marks]

(d) All flights have two pilots. Find the percentage of flights where both pilots flew more than
30 hours last week. [4]
Markscheme

P (X > 30) = 0.0163429 (A1)

valid approach (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg , (0.01634)2 , B(2, 0.0163429) , 2.67E-4 , 2.66E-4

2
[P (X > 30)]

0.0267090

0.0267 % A2 N3

[4 marks]
40. [Maximum mark: 15] 19M.2.SL.TZ2.T_1
Sila High School has 110 students. They each take exactly one language class from a choice of English,
Spanish or Chinese. The following table shows the number of female and male students in the three different
language classes.

A χ test was carried out at the 5 % significance level to analyse the relationship between gender and
2

student choice of language class.

(a) Write down the null hypothesis, H0 , for this test. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(H0:) (choice of ) language is independent of gender (A1)

Note: Accept “there is no association between language (choice) and gender”. Accept “language
(choice) is not dependent on gender”. Do not accept “not related” or “not correlated” or “not influenced”.

[1 mark]

(b) State the number of degrees of freedom. [1]

Markscheme

2 (AG)

[1 mark]

Use your graphic display calculator to write down

(c.i) the expected frequency of female students who chose to take the Chinese class. [1]

Markscheme

16.4 (16.4181…) (G1)

 [1 mark]

(c.ii) the χ statistic.

2
[2]

Markscheme

χ
2
calc
= 8.69 (8.68507…) (G2)

[2 marks]

The critical value at the 5 % significance level for this test is 5.99.

(d) State whether or not H0 should be rejected. Justify your statement. [2]

Markscheme

(we) reject the null hypothesis (A1)(ft)

8.68507… > 5.99 (R1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from part (c)(ii). Accept “do not accept” in place of “reject.” Do not award (A1)(ft)
(R0).

OR

(we) reject the null hypothesis (A1)

0.0130034 < 0.05 (R1)

Note: Accept “do not accept” in place of “reject.” Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0).

[2 marks]

One student is chosen at random from this school.

(e.i) Find the probability that the student does not take the Spanish class. [2]

Markscheme

88

110
(
4

5
, 0.8, 80% ) (A1)(A1)(G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.
 [2 marks]

Another student is chosen at random from this school.

(e.ii) Find the probability that neither of the two students take the Spanish class. [3]

Markscheme

88

110
×
87

109
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying two fractions. Award (M1) for multiplying their correct fractions.

OR

(
46

110
)(
45

109
) + 2(
46

110
)(
42

109
) + (
42

110
)(
41

109
) (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct products; (M1) for adding 4 products.

0.639 (0.638532 … ,
348

545
, 63.9% ) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from their answer to part (e)(i).

[3 marks]

(e.iii) Find the probability that at least one of the two students is female. [3]

Markscheme

1 −
67

110
×
66

109
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying two correct fractions. Award (M1) for subtracting their product of two
fractions from 1.

OR

43

110
×
42

109
+
43

110
×
67

109
+
67

110
×
43

109
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct products; (M1) for adding three products.

0.631 (0.631192 … , 63.1% ,

344
545
) (A1)(G2)

[3 marks]
41. [Maximum mark: 13] 19M.2.AHL.TZ1.H_9
A café serves sandwiches and cakes. Each customer will choose one of the following three options; buy only
a sandwich, buy only a cake or buy both a sandwich and a cake.

The probability that a customer buys a sandwich is 0.72 and the probability that a customer buys a cake is
0.45.

Find the probability that a customer chosen at random will buy

(a.i) both a sandwich and a cake. [3]

Markscheme

use of formula or Venn diagram (M1)

0.72 + 0.45 − 1 (A1)

= 0.17 A1

[3 marks]

(a.ii) only a sandwich. [1]

Markscheme

0.72 − 0.17 = 0.55 A1

[1 mark]

On a typical day 200 customers come to the café.

(b.i) Find the expected number of cakes sold on a typical day. [1]

Markscheme

200 × 0.45 = 90 A1

[1 mark]

(b.ii) Find the probability that more than 100 cakes will be sold on a typical day. [3]

Markscheme

let X be the number of customers who order cake

 X ~ B(200,0.45) (M1)

P(X > 100) = P(X ≥ 101)(= 1 − P(X ≤ 100)) (M1)

= 0.0681 A1

[3 marks]

It is known that 46 % of the customers who come to the café are male, and that 80 % of these buy a
sandwich.

(c.i) A customer is selected at random. Find the probability that the customer is male and buys a
sandwich. [1]

Markscheme

0.46 × 0.8 = 0.368 A1

[1 mark]

(c.ii) A female customer is selected at random. Find the probability that she buys a sandwich. [4]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

0.368 + 0.54 × P (S |F ) = 0.72 M1A1A1

Note: Award M1 for an appropriate tree diagram. Award M1 for LHS, M1 for RHS.

P (S |F ) = 0.652 A1

METHOD 2

P(S∩F )
P (S |F ) =
P(F )
(M1)

=
0.72−0.368

0.54
A1A1

Note: Award A1 for numerator, A1 for denominator.

P (S |F ) = 0.652 A1
[4 marks]
42. [Maximum mark: 8] 19M.2.AHL.TZ2.H_3
Iqbal attempts three practice papers in mathematics. The probability that he passes the first paper is 0.6.
Whenever he gains a pass in a paper, his confidence increases so that the probability of him passing the next
paper increases by 0.1. Whenever he fails a paper the probability of him passing the next paper is 0.6.

(a) Complete the given probability tree diagram for Iqbal’s three attempts, labelling
each branch with the correct probability.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

A1A1A1

Note: Award A1 for each correct column of probabilities.

[3 marks]
(b) Calculate the probability that Iqbal passes at least two of the papers he attempts. [2]

Markscheme

probability (at least twice) =

EITHER

(0.6 × 0.7 × 0.8) + (0.6 × 0.7 × 0.2) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7) (M1)

OR

(0.6 × 0.7) + (0.6 × 0.3 × 0.6) + (0.4 × 0.6 × 0.7) (M1)

Note: Award M1 for summing all required probabilities.

THEN

= 0.696 A1

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that Iqbal passes his third paper, given that he passed only
one previous paper. [3]

Markscheme

P(passes third paper given only one paper passed before)

P (passes third AND only one paper passed bef ore)

=
P (passes once in f irst two papers)
(M1)

(0.6×0.3×0.6)+(0.4×0.6×0.7)
=
(0.6×0.3)+(0.4×0.6)
A1

= 0.657 A1

[3 marks]
43. [Maximum mark: 6] 18N.1.SL.TZ0.T_8
A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue discs, all identical except for the colour. First, Priyanka takes a disc at random
from the bag and then Jorgé takes a disc at random from the bag.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1)(A1) (C3)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches.

[3 marks]

(b) Find the probability that Jorgé chooses a red disc. [3]
Markscheme

8
×
4

7
+
3

8
×
5

7
(A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their two correct products from their tree diagram. Follow through from part
(a), award (M1) for adding their two products. Award (M0) if additional products or terms are added.

= 5

8
(
35

56
, 0.625, 62.5 % ) (A1)(ft) (C3)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram, only if probabilities are [0,1].

[3 marks]
44. [Maximum mark: 15] 18N.1.SL.TZ0.S_9
A bag contains n marbles, two of which are blue. Hayley plays a game in which she randomly draws marbles
out of the bag, one after another, without replacement. The game ends when Hayley draws a blue marble.

(a.i) Find the probability, in terms of n, that the game will end on her first draw. [1]

Markscheme

n
A1 N1

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Find the probability, in terms of n, that the game will end on her second draw. [3]

Markscheme

correct probability for one of the draws A1

eg P(not blue first) = n−2

n
, blue second = 2

n−1

valid approach (M1)

eg recognizing loss on first in order to win on second, P(B' then B), P(B') × P(B | B'), tree diagram

correct expression in terms of n A1 N3

2(n−2)
eg n−2

n
×
n−1
2
, 2n−4
2
n −n
, n(n−1)

[3 marks]

Let n = 5. Find the probability that the game will end on her

(b.i) third draw. [2]

Markscheme

correct working (A1)

eg 3

5
×
2

4
×
2

12

60
(=
1

5
) A1 N2
 [2 marks]

(b.ii) fourth draw. [2]

Markscheme

correct working (A1)

eg 3

5
×
2

4
×
1

3
×
2

60
(=
1

10
) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(c) Hayley plays the game when n = 5. She pays $20 to play and can earn money back
depending on the number of draws it takes to obtain a blue marble. She earns no money
back if she obtains a blue marble on her first draw. Let M be the amount of money that she
earns back playing the game. This information is shown in the following table.

Find the value of k so that this is a fair game. [7]

Markscheme

correct probabilities (seen anywhere) (A1)(A1)

eg P (1) =
2

5
, P (2) =
6

20
(may be seen on tree diagram)

valid approach to find E (M) or expected winnings using their probabilities (M1)

eg P (1) × (0) + P (2) × (20) + P (3) × (8k) + P (4) × (12k) ,

P (1) × (−20) + P (2) × (0) + P (3) × (8k − 20) + P (4) × (12k − 20)

correct working to find E (M) or expected winnings (A1)

eg 2

5
(0) +
10
3
(20) +
1

5
(8k) +
1

10
(12k) ,

2 3 1 1
(−20) + (0) + (8k − 20) + (12k − 20)
5 10 5 10

correct equation for fair game A1

eg 3

10
(20) +
1

5
(8k) +
1

10
(12k) = 20 , 2

5
(−20) +
1

5
(8k − 20) +
1

10
(12k − 20) = 0
correct working to combine terms in k (A1)

eg −8 +
14

5
k − 4 − 2 = 0 , 6 +
14

5
k = 20 , 14

5
k = 14

k = 5 A1 N0

Note: Do not award the final A1 if the candidate’s FT probabilities do not sum to 1.

[7 marks]
45. [Maximum mark: 6] 18N.1.AHL.TZ0.H_1
Consider two events, A and B, such that P (A) ′
= P (A ∩ B) = 0.4 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.1 .

(a) By drawing a Venn diagram, or otherwise, find P (A ∪ B). [3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(M1)

Note: Award M1 for a Venn diagram with at least one probability in the correct region.

EITHER

′
P (A ∩ B ) = 0.3 (A1)

P (A ∪ B) = 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.1 = 0.8 A1

OR

P (B) = 0.5 (A1)

P (A ∪ B) = 0.5 + 0.4 − 0.1 = 0.8 A1

[3 marks]

(b) Show that the events A and B are not independent. [3]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P (A)P (B) = 0.4 × 0.5 (M1)

= 0.2 A1

statement that their P (A)P (B) ≠ P (A ∩ B) R1

Note: Award R1 for correct reasoning from their value.

⇒ A, B not independent AG

METHOD 2

P(A∩B)
P (A|B) =
P(B)
=
0.1

0.5
(M1)

= 0.2 A1

statement that their P (A|B) ≠ P (A) R1

Note: Award R1 for correct reasoning from their value.

⇒ A, B not independent AG

Note: Accept equivalent argument using P (B|A) = 0.25 .

[3 marks]
46. [Maximum mark: 6] 18N.2.SL.TZ0.S_1
In a group of 35 students, some take art class (A) and some take music class (M). 5 of these students do not
take either class. This information is shown in the following Venn diagram.

(a) Write down the number of students in the group who take art class. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

valid approach (M1)

′
(A ∩ M ) + (A ∩ M ) , 17

35
, 11 + 6

number of students taking art class = 17 A1 N2

[2 marks]

One student from the group is chosen at random. Find the probability that

(b.i) the student does not take art class. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

13 + 5, 35 − 17, 18, 1 − P(A)

0.514285

P(A') = 18

35
(exact), 0.514 A1 N2
 [2 marks]

(b.ii) the student takes either art class or music class, but not both. [2]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

11 + 13, 35 − 6 − 5, 24

0.685714

P(A or M but not both) = 24

35
(exact), 0.686 A1 N2

[2 marks]
47. [Maximum mark: 14] 18N.2.SL.TZ0.T_2
160 students attend a dual language school in which the students are taught only in Spanish or taught only
in English.

A survey was conducted in order to analyse the number of students studying Biology or Mathematics. The
results are shown in the Venn diagram.

Set S represents those students who are taught in Spanish.

Set B represents those students who study Biology.

Set M represents those students who study Mathematics.

(a.i) Find the number of students in the school that are taught in Spanish. [2]

Markscheme

10 + 40 + 28 + 17 (M1)

= 95 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.
 [2 marks]

(a.ii) Find the number of students in the school that study Mathematics in English. [2]

Markscheme

20 + 12 (M1)

= 32 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.

[2 marks]

(a.iii) Find the number of students in the school that study both Biology and Mathematics. [2]

Markscheme

12 + 40 (M1)

= 52 (A1)(G2)

Note: Award (M1) for each correct sum (for example: 10 + 40 + 28 + 17) seen.

[2 marks]

(b.i) Write down n (S ∩ (M ∪ B)) . [1]

Markscheme

78 (A1)

[1 mark]

(b.ii) Write down n (B ∩ M ′

∩ S ) . [1]

Markscheme

12 (A1)
 [1 mark]

A student from the school is chosen at random.

(c.i) Find the probability that this student studies Mathematics. [2]

Markscheme

100

160
(
5

8
, 0.625, 62.5 % ) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers
must be probabilities to award (A1).

[2 marks]

(c.ii) Find the probability that this student studies neither Biology nor Mathematics. [2]

Markscheme

160
42
(
21

80
, 0.263 (0.2625), 26.3 % (26.25 % )) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers
must be probabilities to award (A1).

[2 marks]

(c.iii) Find the probability that this student is taught in Spanish, given that the student studies
Biology. [2]

Markscheme

50

70
(
5

7
, 0.714 (0.714285 …), 71.4 % (71.4285 … % )) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Throughout part (c), award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator. All answers
must be probabilities to award (A1).
[2 marks]
48. [Maximum mark: 15] 18N.2.SL.TZ0.S_9
A nationwide study on reaction time is conducted on participants in two age groups. The participants in
Group X are less than 40 years old. Their reaction times are normally distributed with mean 0.489 seconds and
standard deviation 0.07 seconds.

(a) A person is selected at random from Group X. Find the probability that their reaction time is
greater than 0.65 seconds. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

0.010724

0.0107 A2 N2

[2 marks]

The participants in Group Y are 40 years or older. Their reaction times are normally distributed with mean
0.592 seconds and standard deviation σ seconds.

(b) The probability that the reaction time of a person in Group Y is greater than 0.65 seconds is
0.396. Find the value of σ. [4]

Markscheme

correct z-value (A1)

0.263714…

evidence of appropriate approach (M1)

eg 0.65−0.592

σ
, 0.264 =
x−u

correct substitution (A1)

eg 0.263714 =
0.65−0.592

σ
, σ =
0.65−0.592

0.264

0.219934

σ = 0.220 A1 N3
 [4 marks]

In the study, 38 % of the participants are in Group X.

(c) A randomly selected participant has a reaction time greater than 0.65 seconds. Find the
probability that the participant is in Group X. [6]

Markscheme

correct work for P(group X and t > 0.65) or P(group Y and t > 0.65) (may be seen anywhere) (A1)

eg P (group X) × P (t > 0.65 |X) , P (X ∩ t > 0.65) = 0.0107 × 0.38 (= 0.004075) ,

P (Y ∩ t > 0.65) = 0.396 × 0.62

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

P(A∩B)
eg P (X|t > 0.65) , P (A|B) =
P(B)

valid approach to find P (t > 0.65) (M1)

eg , P (X and t > 0.65) + P (Y and t > 0.65)

correct work for P (t > 0.65) (A1)

eg 0.0107 × 0.38 + 0.396 × 0.62, 0.249595

correct substitution into conditional probability formula A1

eg 0.0107×0.38

0.0107×0.38+0.396×0.62
, 0.004075

0.249595

0.016327

P (X|t > 0.65) = 0.0163270 A1 N3

[6 marks]

(d) Ten of the participants with reaction times greater than 0.65 are selected at random. Find
the probability that at least two of them are in Group X. [3]
Markscheme

recognizing binomial probability (M1)

n 10
eg X ∼ B (n, p), (
r
)p q
n−r
, (0.016327)2(0.983672)8, ( )
r 2

valid approach (M1)

eg P (X ⩾ 2) = 1 − P (X ⩽ 1) , 1 − P (X < a) , summing terms from 2 to 10 (accept binomcdf(10,

0.0163, 2, 10))

0.010994

P (X ⩾ 2) = 0.0110 A1 N2

[3 marks]
49. [Maximum mark: 2] 18M.1.SL.TZ1.T_10
A group of 60 sports enthusiasts visited the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympic games to watch a variety of
sporting events.

The most popular sports were snowboarding (S), figure skating (F) and ice hockey (H).

For this group of 60 people:

4 did not watch any of the most popular sports,

x watched all three of the most popular sports,
9 watched snowboarding only,
11 watched figure skating only,
15 watched ice hockey only,
7 watched snowboarding and figure skating,
13 watched figure skating and ice hockey,
11 watched snowboarding and ice hockey.

(b) Find the value of x. [2]

Markscheme

4 + 9 + 11 + 15 + x + (7 − x) + (11 − x) + (13 − x) = 60 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for equating the sum of at least seven of the entries in their Venn diagram to 60.

(x =) 5 (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Follow through from part (a), but only if answer is positive.

[2 marks]
50. [Maximum mark: 14] 18M.1.SL.TZ2.S_8
Pablo drives to work. The probability that he leaves home before 07:00 is 3

4
.

If he leaves home before 07:00 the probability he will be late for work is 1
8
.

If he leaves home at 07:00 or later the probability he will be late for work is 5

8
.

(a) Copy and complete the following tree diagram.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

A1A1A1 N3

Note: Award A1 for each bold fraction.

[3 marks]

(b) Find the probability that Pablo leaves home before 07:00 and is late for work. [2]

Markscheme
 multiplying along correct branches (A1)
eg 3

4
×
1

P(leaves before 07:00 ∩ late) = 3

32
A1 N2

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that Pablo is late for work. [3]

Markscheme

multiplying along other “late” branch (M1)

eg 1

4
×
5

adding probabilities of two mutually exclusive late paths (A1)

eg (
3

4
×
1

8
) + (
1

4
×
5

8
),
3

32
+
5

32

P (L) =
32
8
(=
1

4
) A1 N2

[3 marks]

(d) Given that Pablo is late for work, find the probability that he left home before 07:00. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg P (A|B), P (bef ore 7|late)

correct substitution of their values into formula (A1)

3

eg 32

P (lef t bef ore 07:00|late) =

3

8
A1 N2

[3 marks]

(e) Two days next week Pablo will drive to work. Find the probability that he will be late at least
once. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − P(not late twice), P(late once) + P(late twice)
correct working (A1)
eg 1 − (
3

4
×
3

4
), 2 ×
1

4
×
3

4
+
1

4
×
1

16
A1 N2

[3 marks]
51. [Maximum mark: 6] 18M.1.SL.TZ2.T_7
In an international competition, participants can answer questions in only one of the three following
languages: Portuguese, Mandarin or Hindi. 80 participants took part in the competition. The number of
participants answering in Portuguese, Mandarin or Hindi is shown in the table.

(a) State the number of boys who answered questions in Portuguese. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

20 (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

A boy is chosen at random.

(b) Find the probability that the boy answered questions in Hindi. [2]

Markscheme

43
(0.11627 … , 11.6279 … % ) (A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(c) Two girls are selected at random.

Calculate the probability that one girl answered questions in Mandarin and the other
answered questions in Hindi. [3]

Markscheme

37
×
12

36
+
12

37
×
7

36
(A1)(M1)
Note: Award (A1) for first or second correct product seen, (M1) for adding their two products or for
multiplying their product by two.

=
14

111
( 0.12612 … , 12.6126 % ) (A1) (C3)

[3 marks]
52. [Maximum mark: 6] 18M.1.SL.TZ2.T_9
Consider the following Venn diagrams.

(a.i) Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region represented by Diagram 1. [1]

Markscheme

A' (A1)

Note: Accept alternative set notation for complement such as U − A.

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region represented by Diagram 2. [1]

Markscheme

C ∩ D
′
OR ′
D ∩ C (A1)

Note: Accept alternative set notation for complement.

[1 mark]

(a.iii) Write down an expression, in set notation, for the shaded region represented by Diagram 3. [2]

Markscheme

(E ∩ F ) ∪ G OR G ∪ (E ∩ F ) (A2) (C4)

Note: Accept equivalent answers, for example (E ∪ G) ∩ (F ∪ G) .

[2 marks]

(b.i) Shade, on the Venn diagram, the region represented by the set (H ∪ I)
′
.
 [1]

Markscheme

(A1)

[1 mark]

(b.ii) Shade, on the Venn diagram, the region represented by the set J ∩ K .

[1]

Markscheme

(A1) (C2)

[1 mark]
53. [Maximum mark: 14] 18M.1.SL.TZ2.S_8
Pablo drives to work. The probability that he leaves home before 07:00 is 3

4
.

If he leaves home before 07:00 the probability he will be late for work is 1
8
.

If he leaves home at 07:00 or later the probability he will be late for work is 5

8
.

(a) Copy and complete the following tree diagram.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

A1A1A1 N3

Note: Award A1 for each bold fraction.

[3 marks]

(b) Find the probability that Pablo leaves home before 07:00 and is late for work. [2]

Markscheme
 multiplying along correct branches (A1)
eg 3

4
×
1

P(leaves before 07:00 ∩ late) = 3

32
A1 N2

[2 marks]

(c) Find the probability that Pablo is late for work. [3]

Markscheme

multiplying along other “late” branch (M1)

eg 1

4
×
5

adding probabilities of two mutually exclusive late paths (A1)

eg (
3

4
×
1

8
) + (
1

4
×
5

8
),
3

32
+
5

32

P (L) =
32
8
(=
1

4
) A1 N2

[3 marks]

(d) Given that Pablo is late for work, find the probability that he left home before 07:00. [3]

Markscheme

recognizing conditional probability (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg P (A|B), P (bef ore 7|late)

correct substitution of their values into formula (A1)

3

eg 32

P (lef t bef ore 07:00|late) =

3

8
A1 N2

[3 marks]

(e) Two days next week Pablo will drive to work. Find the probability that he will be late at least
once. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − P(not late twice), P(late once) + P(late twice)
correct working (A1)
eg 1 − (
3

4
×
3

4
), 2 ×
1

4
×
3

4
+
1

4
×
1

16
A1 N2

[3 marks]
54. [Maximum mark: 6] 18M.1.SL.TZ2.T_7
In an international competition, participants can answer questions in only one of the three following
languages: Portuguese, Mandarin or Hindi. 80 participants took part in the competition. The number of
participants answering in Portuguese, Mandarin or Hindi is shown in the table.

(a) State the number of boys who answered questions in Portuguese. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

20 (A1) (C1)

[1 mark]

A boy is chosen at random.

(b) Find the probability that the boy answered questions in Hindi. [2]

Markscheme

43
(0.11627 … , 11.6279 … % ) (A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(c) Two girls are selected at random.

Calculate the probability that one girl answered questions in Mandarin and the other
answered questions in Hindi. [3]

Markscheme

37
×
12

36
+
12

37
×
7

36
(A1)(M1)
Note: Award (A1) for first or second correct product seen, (M1) for adding their two products or for
multiplying their product by two.

=
14

111
( 0.12612 … , 12.6126 % ) (A1) (C3)

[3 marks]
55. [Maximum mark: 17] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.S_9
The weights, in grams, of oranges grown in an orchard, are normally distributed with a mean of 297 g. It is
known that 79 % of the oranges weigh more than 289 g and 9.5 % of the oranges weigh more than 310 g.

(a) Find the probability that an orange weighs between 289 g and 310 g. [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

correct approach indicating subtraction (A1)

eg 0.79 − 0.095, appropriate shading in diagram

P(289 < w < 310) = 0.695 (exact), 69.5 % A1 N2

[2 marks]

The weights of the oranges have a standard deviation of σ.

(b.i) Find the standardized value for 289 g. [2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21

−0.806421

z = −0.806 A1 N2

METHOD 2

(i) & (ii)

correct expression for z (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 289−u

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21
 −0.806421

z = −0.806 (seen anywhere) A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b.ii) Hence, find the value of σ. [3]

Markscheme

METHOD 1

attempt to standardize (M1)

eg σ =
289−297

z
,
289−297

correct substitution with their z (do not accept a probability) A1

eg −0.806 =
289−297

σ
,
289−297

−0.806

9.92037

σ = 9.92 A1 N2

METHOD 2

(i) & (ii)

correct expression for z (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 289−u

valid approach (M1)

eg 1 − p, 21

−0.806421

z = −0.806 (seen anywhere) A1 N2

valid attempt to set up an equation with their z (do not accept a probability) (M1)

eg −0.806 =
289−297

σ
,
289−297

−0.806

9.92037

σ = 9.92 A1 N2
 [3 marks]

The grocer at a local grocery store will buy the oranges whose weights exceed the 35th percentile.

(c) To the nearest gram, find the minimum weight of an orange that the grocer will buy. [3]

Markscheme

valid approach (M1)

eg P(W < w) = 0.35, −0.338520 (accept 0.385320), diagram showing values in a standard normal
distribution

correct score at the 35th percentile (A1)

eg 293.177

294 (g) A1 N2

Note: If working shown, award (M1)(A1)A0 for 293.

If no working shown, award N1 for 293.177, N1 for 293.

Exception to the FT rule: If the score is incorrect, and working shown, award A1FT for correctly finding
their minimum weight (by rounding up)

[3 marks]

The orchard packs oranges in boxes of 36.

(d) Find the probability that the grocer buys more than half the oranges in a box selected at
random. [5]

Markscheme

evidence of recognizing binomial (seen anywhere) (M1)

eg X ∼ B (36, p), n Ca × p
a
× q
n−a

correct probability (seen anywhere) (A1)

eg 0.65

EITHER

finding P(X ≤ 18) from GDC (A1)

eg 0.045720
 evidence of using complement (M1)

eg 1−P(X ≤ 18)

0.954279

P(X > 18) = 0.954 A1 N2

OR

recognizing P(X > 18) = P(X ≥ 19) (M1)

summing terms from 19 to 36 (A1)

eg P(X = 19) + P(X = 20) + … + P(X = 36)

0.954279

P(X > 18) = 0.954 A1 N2

[5 marks]

(e) The grocer selects two boxes at random.

Find the probability that the grocer buys more than half the oranges in each box. [2]

Markscheme

correct calculation (A1)

2
2 2 0
0.954 , ( )0.954 (1 − 0.954)
2

0.910650

0.911 A1 N2

[2 marks]
56. [Maximum mark: 16] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.T_2
On one day 180 flights arrived at a particular airport. The distance travelled and the arrival status for each
incoming flight was recorded. The flight was then classified as on time, slightly delayed, or heavily delayed.

The results are shown in the following table.

A χ2 test is carried out at the 10 % significance level to determine whether the arrival status of incoming
flights is independent of the distance travelled.

(a) State the alternative hypothesis. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

The arrival status is dependent on the distance travelled by the incoming flight (A1)

Note: Accept “associated” or “not independent”.

[1 mark]

(b) Calculate the expected frequency of flights travelling at most 500 km and arriving slightly
delayed. [2]

Markscheme

60×45

180
OR 60

180
×
45

180
× 180 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into expected value formula.

= 15 (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]
(c) Write down the number of degrees of freedom. [1]

Markscheme

4 (A1)

Note: Award (A0) if “2 + 2 = 4” is seen.

[1 mark]

(d.i) Write down the χ2 statistic. [2]

Markscheme

9.55 (9.54671…) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for an answer of 9.54.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Write down the associated p-value. [1]

Markscheme

0.0488 (0.0487961…) (G1)

[1 mark]

The critical value for this test is 7.779.

(e) State, with a reason, whether you would reject the null hypothesis. [2]

Markscheme

Reject the Null Hypothesis (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their hypothesis in part (a).

9.55 (9.54671…) > 7.779 (R1)(ft)

OR

0.0488 (0.0487961…) < 0.1 (R1)(ft)

Note: Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0)(ft). Follow through from part (d). Award (R1)(ft) for a correct comparison,
(A1)(ft) for a consistent conclusion with the answers to parts (a) and (d). Award (R1)(ft) for χ2calc > χ2crit ,
 provided the calculated value is explicitly seen in part (d)(i).

[2 marks]

A flight is chosen at random from the 180 recorded flights.

(f ) Write down the probability that this flight arrived on time. [2]

Markscheme

52

180
(0.289,
13

45
, 28.9 % ) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(g) Given that this flight was not heavily delayed, find the probability that it travelled between
500 km and 5000 km. [2]

Markscheme

35
97
(0.361, 36.1 % ) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(h) Two flights are chosen at random from those which were slightly delayed.

Find the probability that each of these flights travelled at least 5000 km. [3]

Markscheme

14

45
×
13

44
(A1)(M1)

Note: Award (A1) for two correct fractions and (M1) for multiplying their two fractions.

=
182

1980
(0.0919,
91

990
, 0.091919 … , 9.19 % ) (A1) (G2)

[3 marks]
57. [Maximum mark: 6] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.S_5
Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 0.62 and P (A ∩ B) = 0.18.

(a) Find P(A ∩ B ′ ). [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

valid approach

eg Venn diagram, P(A) − P (A ∩ B), 0.62 − 0.18 (M1)

P(A ∩ B' ) = 0.44 A1 N2

[2 marks]

(b) Given that P((A ∪ B)′ ) = 0.19, find P(A | B ′ ). [4]

Markscheme

valid approach to find either P(B ′ ) or P(B) (M1)

eg (seen anywhere), 1 − P(A ∩ B ′ ) − P((A ∪ B)′ )

correct calculation for P(B ′ ) or P(B) (A1)

eg 0.44 + 0.19, 0.81 − 0.62 + 0.18

′
P(A∩B )
correct substitution into ′
P(B )
(A1)

eg 0.44

0.19+0.44
,
0.44

1−0.37

0.698412

P(A | B ′ ) = 44

63
(exact), 0.698 A1 N3

[4 marks]
58. [Maximum mark: 15] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.T_5
Contestants in a TV gameshow try to get through three walls by passing through doors without falling into a
trap. Contestants choose doors at random.
If they avoid a trap they progress to the next wall.
If a contestant falls into a trap they exit the game before the next contestant plays.
Contestants are not allowed to watch each other attempt the game.

The first wall has four doors with a trap behind one door.

Ayako is a contestant.

(a) Write down the probability that Ayako avoids the trap in this wall. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

4
(0.75, 75%) (A1)

[1 mark]

Natsuko is the second contestant.

(b) Find the probability that only one of Ayako and Natsuko falls into a trap while attempting
to pass through a door in the first wall. [3]

Markscheme

4
×
1

4
+
1

4
×
3

4
OR 2 ×
3

4
×
1

4
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for their product 1

4
×
3
4
seen, and (M1) for adding their two products or multiplying
their product by 2.

=
3

8
(
6

16
, 0.375, 37.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from part (a), but only if the sum of their two fractions is 1.

[3 marks]

The second wall has five doors with a trap behind two of the doors.

The third wall has six doors with a trap behind three of the doors.

The following diagram shows the branches of a probability tree diagram for a contestant in the game.

(c) Copy the probability tree diagram and write down the relevant probabilities along the
branches. [3]

Markscheme
 (A1)(ft)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches. Follow through from part (a).

[3 marks]

(d.i) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap
while attempting to pass through a door in the second wall. [2]

Markscheme

4
×
2

5
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probabilities multiplied together.

=
3
10
(0.3, 30% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or part (a).

[2 marks]

(d.ii) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap. [3]

Markscheme

1 −
3

4
×
2

5
×
3

6
OR 1

4
+
3

4
×
2

5
+
3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
and (M1) for subtracting their correct probability from 1, or adding to
their 1

4
+
3

4
×
2

5
.

=
93

120
(
31

40
, 0.775, 77.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram.

 [3 marks]

(e) 120 contestants attempted this game.

Find the expected number of contestants who fell into a trap while attempting to pass
through a door in the third wall. [3]

Markscheme

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
× 120 (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
(
3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
OR
27

120
OR
9

40
) and (M1) for multiplying by 120.

= 27 (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or their 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
from their calculation in part (d)(ii).

[3 marks]
59. [Maximum mark: 15] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.T_5
Contestants in a TV gameshow try to get through three walls by passing through doors without falling into a
trap. Contestants choose doors at random.
If they avoid a trap they progress to the next wall.
If a contestant falls into a trap they exit the game before the next contestant plays.
Contestants are not allowed to watch each other attempt the game.

The first wall has four doors with a trap behind one door.

Ayako is a contestant.

(a) Write down the probability that Ayako avoids the trap in this wall. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

4
(0.75, 75%) (A1)

[1 mark]

Natsuko is the second contestant.

(b) Find the probability that only one of Ayako and Natsuko falls into a trap while attempting
to pass through a door in the first wall. [3]

Markscheme

4
×
1

4
+
1

4
×
3

4
OR 2 ×
3

4
×
1

4
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for their product 1

4
×
3
4
seen, and (M1) for adding their two products or multiplying
their product by 2.

=
3

8
(
6

16
, 0.375, 37.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from part (a), but only if the sum of their two fractions is 1.

[3 marks]

The second wall has five doors with a trap behind two of the doors.

The third wall has six doors with a trap behind three of the doors.

The following diagram shows the branches of a probability tree diagram for a contestant in the game.

(c) Copy the probability tree diagram and write down the relevant probabilities along the
branches. [3]

Markscheme
 (A1)(ft)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches. Follow through from part (a).

[3 marks]

(d.i) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap
while attempting to pass through a door in the second wall. [2]

Markscheme

4
×
2

5
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct probabilities multiplied together.

=
3
10
(0.3, 30% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or part (a).

[2 marks]

(d.ii) A contestant is chosen at random. Find the probability that this contestant fell into a trap. [3]

Markscheme

1 −
3

4
×
2

5
×
3

6
OR 1

4
+
3

4
×
2

5
+
3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
and (M1) for subtracting their correct probability from 1, or adding to
their 1

4
+
3

4
×
2

5
.

=
93

120
(
31

40
, 0.775, 77.5% ) (A1)(ft) (G2)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram.

 [3 marks]

(e) 120 contestants attempted this game.

Find the expected number of contestants who fell into a trap while attempting to pass
through a door in the third wall. [3]

Markscheme

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
× 120 (M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
(
3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
OR
27

120
OR
9

40
) and (M1) for multiplying by 120.

= 27 (A1)(ft) (G3)

Note: Follow through from their tree diagram or their 3

4
×
3

5
×
3

6
from their calculation in part (d)(ii).

[3 marks]
60. [Maximum mark: 16] 18M.2.SL.TZ1.T_2
On one day 180 flights arrived at a particular airport. The distance travelled and the arrival status for each
incoming flight was recorded. The flight was then classified as on time, slightly delayed, or heavily delayed.

The results are shown in the following table.

A χ2 test is carried out at the 10 % significance level to determine whether the arrival status of incoming
flights is independent of the distance travelled.

(a) State the alternative hypothesis. [1]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

The arrival status is dependent on the distance travelled by the incoming flight (A1)

Note: Accept “associated” or “not independent”.

[1 mark]

(b) Calculate the expected frequency of flights travelling at most 500 km and arriving slightly
delayed. [2]

Markscheme

60×45

180
OR 60

180
×
45

180
× 180 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for correct substitution into expected value formula.

= 15 (A1) (G2)

[2 marks]
(c) Write down the number of degrees of freedom. [1]

Markscheme

4 (A1)

Note: Award (A0) if “2 + 2 = 4” is seen.

[1 mark]

(d.i) Write down the χ2 statistic. [2]

Markscheme

9.55 (9.54671…) (G2)

Note: Award (G1) for an answer of 9.54.

[2 marks]

(d.ii) Write down the associated p-value. [1]

Markscheme

0.0488 (0.0487961…) (G1)

[1 mark]

The critical value for this test is 7.779.

(e) State, with a reason, whether you would reject the null hypothesis. [2]

Markscheme

Reject the Null Hypothesis (A1)(ft)

Note: Follow through from their hypothesis in part (a).

9.55 (9.54671…) > 7.779 (R1)(ft)

OR

0.0488 (0.0487961…) < 0.1 (R1)(ft)

Note: Do not award (A1)(ft)(R0)(ft). Follow through from part (d). Award (R1)(ft) for a correct comparison,
(A1)(ft) for a consistent conclusion with the answers to parts (a) and (d). Award (R1)(ft) for χ2calc > χ2crit ,
 provided the calculated value is explicitly seen in part (d)(i).

[2 marks]

A flight is chosen at random from the 180 recorded flights.

(f ) Write down the probability that this flight arrived on time. [2]

Markscheme

52

180
(0.289,
13

45
, 28.9 % ) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(g) Given that this flight was not heavily delayed, find the probability that it travelled between
500 km and 5000 km. [2]

Markscheme

35
97
(0.361, 36.1 % ) (A1)(A1) (G2)

Note: Award (A1) for correct numerator, (A1) for correct denominator.

[2 marks]

(h) Two flights are chosen at random from those which were slightly delayed.

Find the probability that each of these flights travelled at least 5000 km. [3]

Markscheme

14

45
×
13

44
(A1)(M1)

Note: Award (A1) for two correct fractions and (M1) for multiplying their two fractions.

=
182

1980
(0.0919,
91

990
, 0.091919 … , 9.19 % ) (A1) (G2)

[3 marks]
61. [Maximum mark: 16] 18M.2.SL.TZ2.T_1
In a company it is found that 25 % of the employees encountered traffic on their way to work. From those
who encountered traffic the probability of being late for work is 80 %.

From those who did not encounter traffic, the probability of being late for work is 15 %.

The tree diagram illustrates the information.

(a.i) Write down the value of a. [1]

Markscheme

a = 0.2 (A1)

[1 mark]

(a.ii) Write down the value of b. [1]

Markscheme

b = 0.85 (A1)

[1 mark]

(b.i) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee encountered traffic and was
late for work. [2]

Markscheme

0.25 × 0.8 (M1)

 Note: Award (M1) for a correct product.

= 0.2 (
1

5
, 20%) (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

(b.ii) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee was late for work. [3]

Markscheme

0.25 × 0.8 + 0.75 × 0.15 (A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their (0.25 × 0.8) and (0.75 × 0.15), (M1) for adding two products.

= 0.313 (0.3125,
16
5
, 31.3%) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Award the final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1. Follow through from part (b)(i).

[3 marks]

(b.iii) Use the tree diagram to find the probability that an employee encountered traffic given that
they were late for work. [3]

Markscheme

0.25×0.8

0.25×0.8+0.75×0.15
(A1)(ft)(A1)(ft)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for a correct numerator (their part (b)(i)), (A1)(ft) for a correct denominator (their
part (b)(ii)). Follow through from parts (b)(i) and (b)(ii).

= 0.64 (
16

25
, 64% ) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Award final (A1)(ft) only if answer does not exceed 1.

[3 marks]

The company investigates the different means of transport used by their employees in the past year to travel
to work. It was found that the three most common means of transport used to travel to work were public
transportation (P ), car (C ) and bicycle (B ).
The company finds that 20 employees travelled by car, 28 travelled by bicycle and 19 travelled by public
transportation in the last year.

Some of the information is shown in the Venn diagram.

(c.i) Find the value of x. [1]

Markscheme

(x =) 3 (A1)

[1 Mark]

(c.ii) Find the value of y. [1]

Markscheme

(y =) 10 (A1)(ft)

Note: Following through from part (c)(i) but only if their x is less than or equal to 13.

[1 Mark]

There are 54 employees in the company.

(d) Find the number of employees who, in the last year, did not travel to work by car, bicycle or
public transportation. [2]

Markscheme

54 − (10 + 3 + 4 + 2 + 6 + 8 + 13) (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for subtracting their correct sum from 54. Follow through from their part (c).

=8 (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) only if their sum does not exceed 54. Follow through from their part (c).
 [2 marks]

(e) Find n ((C ∪ B) ∩ P ). ′

[2]

Markscheme

6 + 8 + 13 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for summing 6, 8 and 13.

27 (A1)(G2)

[2 marks]

62. [Maximum mark: 5] 18M.2.AHL.TZ1.H_6

The mean number of squirrels in a certain area is known to be 3.2 squirrels per hectare of
woodland. Within this area, there is a 56 hectare woodland nature reserve. It is known that there
are currently at least 168 squirrels in this reserve.

Assuming the population of squirrels follow a Poisson distribution, calculate the probability that
there are more than 190 squirrels in the reserve. [5]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

X is number of squirrels in reserve

X ∼ Po(179.2) A1

Note: Award A1 if 179.2 or 56 × 3.2 seen or implicit in future calculations.

recognising conditional probability M1

P(X > 190 | X ≥ 168)

P(X>190)
=
P(X⩾168)
= (
0.19827…

0.80817…
) (A1)(A1)

= 0.245 A1

[5 marks]
63. [Maximum mark: 7] 18M.2.AHL.TZ1.H_8
Each of the 25 students in a class are asked how many pets they own. Two students own three pets
and no students own more than three pets. The mean and standard deviation of the number of
pets owned by students in the class are 18

25
and 24

25
respectively.

Find the number of students in the class who do not own a pet. [7]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

METHOD 1

let p have no pets, q have one pet and r have two pets (M1)

p + q + r + 2 = 25 (A1)

0p + 1q + 2r + 6 = 18 A1

Note: Accept a statement that there are a total of 12 pets.

attempt to use variance equation, or evidence of trial and error (M1)

2 2
0p+1q+4r+18

25
− (
18

25
) = (
24

25
) (A1)

attempt to solve a system of linear equations (M1)

p = 14 A1

METHOD 2

(M1)

p + q + r +
2

25
= 1 (A1)

q + 2r +
6

25
=
18

25
(⇒ q + 2r =
12

25
) A1

2
q + 4r +
18

25
− (
18

25
) =
576

625
(⇒ q + 4r =
18

25
) (M1)(A1)

q =
25
6
, r =
25
3
(M1)

p =
14

25
A1

so 14 have no pets
[7 marks]
64. [Maximum mark: 6] 17N.1.SL.TZ0.S_1
A bag contains 5 green balls and 3 white balls. Two balls are selected at random without replacement.

(a) Complete the following tree diagram.

[3]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

correct probabilities

A1A1A1 N3

Note: Award A1 for each correct bold answer.

[3 marks]

(b) Find the probability that exactly one of the selected balls is green. [3]

Markscheme

multiplying along branches (M1)

eg 5

8
×
3

7
,
3

8
×
5

7
,
15

56

adding probabilities of correct mutually exclusive paths (A1)

eg 5
8
×
3
7
+
3
8
×
5
7
,
15
56
+
15
56

30

56
(=
15

28
) A1 N2

[3 marks]
65. [Maximum mark: 6] 17N.1.SL.TZ0.T_7
Rosewood College has 120 students. The students can join the sports club (S ) and the music club (M ).

For a student chosen at random from these 120, the probability that they joined both clubs is 1

4
and the
probability that they joined the music club is . 1
3

There are 20 students that did not join either club.

(a) Complete the Venn diagram for these students.

[2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

(A1)(A1) (C2)

Note: Award (A1) for 30 in correct area, (A1) for 60 and 10 in the correct areas.

[2 marks]

(b) One of the students who joined the sports club is chosen at random. Find the probability
that this student joined both clubs. [2]

Markscheme

30

90
(
1

3
, 0.333333 … , 33.3333 … %) (A1)(ft)(A1)(ft) (C2)
 Note: Award (A1)(ft) for correct numerator of 30, (A1)(ft) for correct denominator of 90. Follow through
from their Venn diagram.

[2 marks]

(c) Determine whether the events S and M are independent. [2]

Markscheme

P(S) × P(M ) =
3

4
×
1

3
=
1

4
(R1)

Note: Award (R1) for multiplying their by 1

3
.

therefore the events are independent (as P(S ∩ M ) =

1

4
) (A1)(ft) (C2)

Note: Award (R1)(A1)(ft) for an answer which is consistent with their Venn diagram.

Do not award (R0)(A1)(ft).

Do not award final (A1) if P(S) × P(M ) is not calculated. Follow through from part (a).

[2 marks]
66. [Maximum mark: 15] 17N.2.SL.TZ0.T_4
A company performs an experiment on the efficiency of a liquid that is used to detect a nut allergy.

A group of 60 people took part in the experiment. In this group 26 are allergic to nuts. One person from the
group is chosen at random.

A second person is chosen from the group.

(b) Find the probability that both people chosen are not allergic to nuts. [2]

Markscheme

34

60
×
33

59
(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for their correct product.

= 0.317 (
187

590
, 0.316949 … , 31.7%) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Note: Follow through from part (a).

[2 marks]

When the liquid is added to a person’s blood sample, it is expected to turn blue if the person is allergic to nuts
and to turn red if the person is not allergic to nuts.

The company claims that the probability that the test result is correct is 98% for people who are allergic to
nuts and 95% for people who are not allergic to nuts.

It is known that 6 in every 1000 adults are allergic to nuts.

This information can be represented in a tree diagram.

(c) Copy and complete the tree diagram. [3]

Markscheme

(A1)(A1)(A1)

Note: Award (A1) for each correct pair of branches.

[3 marks]

An adult, who was not part of the original group of 60, is chosen at random and tested using this liquid.

(d) Find the probability that this adult is allergic to nuts and the liquid turns blue. [2]

Markscheme

0.006 × 0.98 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying 0.006 by 0.98.

= 0.00588 (
147

25000
, 0.588%) (A1)(G2)
 [2 marks]

(e) Find the probability that the liquid turns blue. [3]

Markscheme

0.006 × 0.98 + 0.994 × 0.05 (0.00588 + 0.994 × 0.05) (A1)(ft)(M1)

Note: Award (A1)(ft) for their two correct products, (M1) for adding two products.

= 0.0556 (0.05558, 5.56%,

2779

50000
) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Follow through from parts (c) and (d).

[3 marks]

(f ) Find the probability that the tested adult is allergic to nuts given that the liquid turned blue. [3]

Markscheme

0.006×0.98

0.05558
(M1)(M1)

Note: Award (M1) for their correct numerator, (M1) for their correct denominator.

= 0.106 (0.105793 … , 10.6%,

397
42
) (A1)(ft)(G3)

Note: Follow through from parts (d) and (e).

[3 marks]

The liquid is used in an office to identify employees who might be allergic to nuts. The liquid turned blue for
38 employees.
(g) Estimate the number of employees, from this 38, who are allergic to nuts. [2]

Markscheme

0.105793 … × 38 (M1)

Note: Award (M1) for multiplying 38 by their answer to part (f ).

= 4.02 (4.02015 …) (A1)(ft)(G2)

Notes: Follow through from part (f ). Use of 3 sf result from part (f ) results in an answer of 4.03 (4.028).

[2 marks]
67. [Maximum mark: 8] 17N.2.SL.TZ0.S_4
A discrete random variable X has the following probability distribution.

(a) Find the value of k. [4]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

valid approach (M1)

egtotal probability = 1

correct equation (A1)

eg0.475 + 2k 2
+
k

10
+ 6k
2
= 1, 8k
2
+ 0.1k − 0.525 = 0

k = 0.25 A2 N3

[4 marks]

(b) Write down P(X = 2). [1]

Markscheme

P(X = 2) = 0.025 A1 N1

[1 mark]

(c) Find P(X = 2|X > 0) . [3]

Markscheme

valid approach for finding P(X > 0) (M1)

eg1 − 0.475, 2 2
2(0.25 ) + 0.025 + 6(0.25 ), 1 − P(X = 0), 2k
2
+
k

10
+ 6k
2

correct substitution into formula for conditional probability (A1)

eg 0.025
1−0.475
,
0.025
0.525

0.0476190
P(X = 2|X > 0) =
1

21
(exact), 0.0476 A1 N2

[3 marks]
68. [Maximum mark: 6] 17N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_2
Events A and B are such that P(A ∪ B) = 0.95, P(A ∩ B) = 0.6 and P(A|B) = 0.75 .

(a) Find P(B). [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

P(A∩B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)

⇒ 0.75 =
0.6

P(B)
(M1)

⇒ P(B) (=
0.6

0.75
) = 0.8 A1

[2 marks]

(b) Find P(A). [2]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

⇒ 0.95 = P(A) + 0.8 − 0.6 (M1)

⇒ P(A) = 0.75 A1

[2 marks]

(c) Hence show that events A and B are independent.

′
[2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1
′
P(A ∩B)
′
P(A |B) =
P(B)
=
0.2
0.8
= 0.25 A1

′
P(A |B) = P(A )
′
R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

Note: If there is evidence that the student has calculated P(A ′

∩ B) = 0.2 by assuming
independence in the first place, award A0R0.
METHOD 2

EITHER

P(A) = P(A|B) A1

OR

P(A) × P(B) = 0.75 × 0.80 = 0.6 = P(A ∩ B) A1

THEN

A and B are independent R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

METHOD 3

′
P(A ) × P(B) = 0.25 × 0.80 = 0.2 A1

′
P(A ) × P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
′
R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

[2 marks]
69. [Maximum mark: 6] 17N.2.AHL.TZ0.H_2
Events A and B are such that P(A ∪ B) = 0.95, P(A ∩ B) = 0.6 and P(A|B) = 0.75 .

(a) Find P(B). [2]

Markscheme

* This question is from an exam for a previous syllabus, and may contain minor differences in marking
or structure.

P(A∩B)
P(A|B) =
P(B)

⇒ 0.75 =
0.6

P(B)
(M1)

⇒ P(B) (=
0.6

0.75
) = 0.8 A1

[2 marks]

(b) Find P(A). [2]

Markscheme

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)

⇒ 0.95 = P(A) + 0.8 − 0.6 (M1)

⇒ P(A) = 0.75 A1

[2 marks]

(c) Hence show that events A and B are independent.

′
[2]

Markscheme

METHOD 1
′
P(A ∩B)
′
P(A |B) =
P(B)
=
0.2
0.8
= 0.25 A1

′
P(A |B) = P(A )
′
R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

Note: If there is evidence that the student has calculated P(A ′

∩ B) = 0.2 by assuming
independence in the first place, award A0R0.
METHOD 2

EITHER

P(A) = P(A|B) A1

OR

P(A) × P(B) = 0.75 × 0.80 = 0.6 = P(A ∩ B) A1

THEN

A and B are independent R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

METHOD 3

′
P(A ) × P(B) = 0.25 × 0.80 = 0.2 A1

′
P(A ) × P(B) = P(A ∩ B)
′
R1

hence A and B are independent AG

′

[2 marks]

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