BUY

Result Update Trent Ltd Target Price

12th Aug, 2024 Retail 7000

Strong Performance Continues; Maintain BUY

(CMP as of 9th Aug’24)
Est. Vs. Actual for Q1FY25: Revenue – BEAT; EBITDA –INLINE; PAT – BEAT CMP (Rs) 6276
Changes in Estimates post Q1FY25 Upside /Downside (%) 12%
High/Low (Rs) 6375/1791
FY25E/FY26E – Revenue: 14%/13%; EBITDA:14%/13%; PAT: 18%/14%
Market cap (Cr) 223135
Recommendation Rationale
Avg. daily vol. (6m)Shrs. ‘000 903
• Trent's Q1FY25 numbers exceeded expectations. The company achieved robust No. of shares (Cr) 36
revenue growth, increasing by 57% YoY to Rs 3,992 Cr. This growth was driven by
increased footfalls, and strong performance across brands, concepts, categories, and Shareholding (%)
channels, despite subdued market sentiments and heightened competitive intensity. Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24
The company’s EBITDA grew by 67% YoY, with EBITDA margins expanding by 88 bps Promoter 37.0 37.0 37.0
YoY to 15.3%, driven by gross margin expansion. FIIs 25.9 26.8 27.9
• Despite extreme heatwaves in some regions, both Westside and Zudio stores MFs / UTI 9.2 8.7 8.5
experienced growth. The company closed 4 stores in Westside (opened 6, closed 10)
FIs/Banks 0.0 0.0 0.0
and added 14 stores in Zudio (opened 16, closed 2) on a QoQ basis. Trent now
Others 27.9 27.5 26.6
operates 228 Westside stores and 559 Zudio stores across 178 cities.
• We believe Trent’s overall revenue growth results are excellent, and we anticipate Financial & Valuations
continued strong performance in the coming quarters. The company’s focus on store Y/E Mar (Rs Cr) FY25E FY26E FY27E
expansion and product assortment will likely drive future growth across all store Net Sales 16,368 19,890 23,341
formats. EBIDTA 2,704 3,424 4,027
Sector Outlook: Positive Adj Net Profit 1,497 1,969 2,357
EPS, Rs 42.1 55.4 66.3
Company Outlook & Guidance: We maintain our BUY recommendation as we increase our
PER, x 149.0 113.3 94.6
FY25/26 estimates on the back of a strong growth outlook
EV/EBIDTA, x 82.4 64.5 54.2
Current Valuation: SOTP P/BV, x 38.1 28.8 22.3
ROE, % 25.6 25.5 23.6
Current TP: Rs 7,000/share (Previous TP: Rs 4,800/share).
Recommendation: With a 12% upside potential from the CMP, we maintain our BUY rating Change in Estimates (%)
on the stock. Y/E Mar FY25E FY26E
Sales 14 13
Outlook: We believe Trent’s outstanding performance over the past several quarters,
EBITDA 14 13
despite weak consumer demand, is commendable. We expect strong sales growth to
PAT 18 14
continue in the coming quarters, driven by Trent's focus on rapid store expansion and
ongoing assortment renewal, which should result in increased overall footfall. Additionally, the ESG disclosure Score**
improvement in the earnings profile across all formats, the reduction in losses at Star Bazaar, Environmental Disclosure 36.48
and the enhanced traction at the Inditex JV are positive indicators for the company. In recent Social Disclosure Score 25.94
years, Trent has adopted a small-format store model for Star Food. This approach, coupled Governance Disclosure Score 66.07
with sharp pricing and a focus on fresh produce and private labels, has yielded positive Total ESG Disclosure Score 42.86
results. The resilience and commercial viability of this model are evident in its performance. Sector Average 41.61

Valuation & Recommendation Source: Bloomberg, Scale: 0.1-100

**Note: This score measures the amount of ESG data a company reports
publicly and does not measure the company's performance on any data
We remain positive on the company and expect Revenue/EBITDA growth of 25%/28% point. All scores are based on 2022 disclosures
CAGR on a standalone business over FY24-27E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Relative Performance
and value the company on a SOTP basis with a revised TP of Rs 7,000/ share. Our TP
implies an upside of 12% from the CMP. 625
425
Key Financials (Standalone) 225
25
(Rs Cr) Q1FY25 QoQ (%) YoY (%) Axis Est. Variance (%)
Feb-23 May-23 Sep-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Aug-24
Net Sales 3,992 25.3 57.4 3,805 4.9
Trent Ltd. BSE Sensex
EBITDA 611 27.9 67.0 611 (0.0)
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.3 32bps 88bps 16.1 -76bps Source: Ace Equity, Axis Securities
Net Profit 342 (179.1) 130.8 323 5.9
Preeyam Tolia
EPS (Rs) 9.6 (47.7) 130.8 9.1 5.9
Research Analyst
email: [email protected]
Source: Company, Axis Research

Suhanee Shome
Research Associate
email: [email protected]

1
Financial Performance
The company’s revenue grew 57% YoY to Rs 3,992 Cr, driven by increased footfalls, strong growth across
categories and channels, and continued store expansion. Its fashion concept registered double-digit LFL
growth. EBITDA increased by 67% YoY, with EBITDA margins expanding by 88bps YoY to 15%, supported by
gross margin expansion. PAT stood at Rs 342 Cr, up 131% YoY.

• The company operates on a net basis - 228 Westside stores, 559 Zudio stores, and 72 stores in Star.

• Emerging categories such as Beauty & Personal Care, Innerwear, and Footwear accounted for 20% of standalone

sales – and continued to gain traction with customers.

• Westside.com together with the proposition on the Tata Neu platform continues to grow profitably (grew by over

30%) and this combined online presence contributes to over 5% of Westside revenues.

• Star business which consists of 72 stores (added 6 stores in Q1FY25), grew 29% YoY, led by strong LTL of 20%

growth and volume growth. The business witnessed all-round performance, driven by its own brands, staples, and

fresh and general merchandise offerings that contribute over 70% of revenues. The management reiterated that it

is optimistic about Star's future store economics and expects this to be an important additional growth driver for the

company.

Key Risks to Our Estimates and TP

• Increase in competitive intensity, weakening of demand environment.

Change in Estimates

Old estimates Revised estimates % change

FY25 FY26 FY25 FY26 FY25 FY26

Revenue 14,409 17,609 16,368 19,890 14 13

EBITDA 2,368 3,024 2,704 3,424 14 13

PAT 1,274 1,724 1,497 1,969 18 14

EPS 35.8 48.5 42.1 55.4 18 14

Source: Company, Axis Securities

2
ResultsReview

Axis Sec % Change % Change Var (%) Axis

(Rs Cr) Q1FY24 Q4FY24 Q1FY25
Est (YoY) (QoQ) Sec Est

Total Revenue 2,536 3,187 3,805 3,992 57.4 25.3 4.9

COGS 1,407 1,744 2,131 2,146 52.6 23.1 0.7
Gross Profit 1,129 1,443 1,674 1,845 63.4 27.9 10.2
GM% 44.5 45.3 44.0 46.2 170bps 94bps 223bps
Expenditure
Employee expenses 185 298 297 305 64.3 2.3 2.7
Other Exp 296 383 400 465 57.1 21.6 16.4
Total Expenditure 189 242 283 292 54.4 20.3 3.2
EBIDTA 366 477 611 611 67.0 27.9 (0.0)
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.4 15.0 16.1 15.3 88bps 32bps -76bps
Depreciation 133 203 193 176 31.8 (13.2) (8.6)
EBIT 232 275 418 435 87.2 58.3 3.9
Interest 89 32 29 31 (65.0) (3.1) 7.7
Oth. Inc. 50 73 47 46 (7.4) (37.1) (2.5)
Exceptional Items - 543 - - 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT 193 (228) 436 450 133.2 (297.5) 3.0
Tax 45 205 113 107 141.2 (47.5) (5.3)
Effective Tax Rate(%) 23.1 23.8 26.0 23.9 80bps 6bps -211bps
PAT 148 (432) 323 342 130.8 (179.1) 5.9
PAT Margin (%) 5.85 (13.57) 8.49 8.57 273bps 2214bps 8bps
EPS (Rs) 4.2 18.4 9.1 9.6 130.8 (47.7) 5.9
Source: Company, Axis Securities

3
Financials (Standalone)
Profit & Loss (Rs Cr)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Net sales 11,927 16,368 19,890 23,341
Growth, % 54.6 37.2 21.5 17.3
Other operating income - - - -
Total income 11,927 16,368 19,890 23,341
Raw material expenses (6,541) (8,830) (10,684) (12,607)
Employee expenses (938) (1,313) (1,523) (1,767)
Other Operating expenses (2,521) (3,521) (4,259) (4,940)
EBITDA (Core) 1,927 2,704 3,424 4,027
Growth, % 72.2 40.4 26.6 17.6
Margin, % 16.2 16.5 17.2 17.3
Depreciation (639) (742) (846) (950)
EBIT 1,288 1,962 2,578 3,077
Growth, % 96.4 52.3 31.4 19.3
Margin, % 10.8 12.0 13.0 13.2
Other Income 351 386 425 467
Non-recurring Items 543 - - -
Pre-tax profit 1,873 2,023 2,661 3,186
Tax provided (438) (526) (692) (828)
Profit after tax 1,436 1,497 1,969 2,357
Growth, % 60.9 67.8 31.5 19.7
Unadj. shares (Cr) 36 36 36 36
Wtdavg shares (Cr) 36 36 36 36
Source: Company, Axis Securities

Balance Sheet (Rs Cr)

Y/E Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Cash & bank 286 1,588 3,534 5,977
Debtors 79 108 131 154
Inventory 1,565 2,148 2,610 3,062
Loans & advances - - - -
Other current assets 408 408 408 408
Total current assets 2,957 4,871 7,302 10,221
Investments 1,282 1,282 1,282 1,282
Gross fixed assets 3,283 3,801 4,318 4,836
Less: Depreciation (883) (1,626) (2,472) (3,422)
Add: Capital WIP 161 161 161 161
Net fixed assets 2,562 2,337 2,008 1,576
Non-current assets 657 657 657 657
Total assets 7,429 9,118 11,220 13,707

Current liabilities 913 1,194 1,416 1,633

Provisions - - - -
Total current liabilities 913 1,194 1,416 1,633
Non-current liabilities 2,068 2,068 2,068 2,068
Total liabilities 2,982 3,262 3,484 3,702
Paid-up capital 36 36 36 36
Reserves & surplus 4,412 5,820 7,701 9,969
Shareholders’ equity 4,447 5,856 7,736 10,005
Total equity & liabilities 7,429 9,118 11,220 13,707
Source: Company, Axis Securities

4
Cash Flow (Rs Cr)
Y/E Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Pre-tax profit 1,873 2,023 2,661 3,186
Depreciation 639 742 846 950
Chg in working capital (275) (332) (263) (258)
Total tax paid (410) (526) (692) (828)
Cash flow from operating activities 1,827 1,908 2,552 3,050
Capital expenditure 1,207 (518) (518) (518)
Chg in marketable securities (164) - - -
Cash flow from investing activities 953 (518) (518) (518)
Free cash flow 2,780 1,390 2,035 2,532
Equity raised/(repaid) - - - -
Dividend (incl. tax) - - - -
Cash flow from financing activities (2,504) - - -
Net chg in cash 276 1,390 2,035 2,532
Opening cash balance 79 286 1,588 3,534
Closing cash balance 286 1,588 3,534 5,977
Source: Company, Axis Securities

Ratio Analysis (%)

Y/E Mar FY24 FY25E FY26E FY27E
Per Share data
EPS (INR) 40.4 42.1 55.4 66.3
Growth, % 60.9 67.8 31.5 19.7
Book NAV/share (INR) 125.1 164.7 217.6 281.4
FDEPS (INR) 25.1 42.1 55.4 66.3
CEPS (INR) 27.8 63.0 79.2 93.0
CFPS (INR) 46.0 42.8 59.9 72.6
DPS (INR) - - - -
Return ratios
Return on assets (%) 22.2 22.0 22.7 21.8
Return on equity (%) 20.1 25.6 25.5 23.6
Return on capital employed (%) 24.8 25.2 26.1 24.8
Turnover ratios
Asset turnover (x) 2.7 4.6 5.5 6.7
Sales/Total assets (x) 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9
Sales/Net FA (x) 3.4 6.7 9.2 13.0
Working capital/Sales (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Receivable days 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4
Inventory days 47.9 47.9 47.9 47.9
Payable days 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8
Working capital days 34.8 32.8 31.8 31.1
Liquidity ratios
Current ratio (x) 3.2 4.1 5.2 6.3
Quick ratio (x) 1.5 2.3 3.3 4.4
Interest cover (x) 4.2 6.0 7.6 8.6
Total debt/Equity (x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2
Valuation
PER (x) 250.0 149.0 113.3 94.6
PEG (x) - y-o-y growth 4.1 2.2 3.6 4.8
Price/Book (x) 50.2 38.1 28.8 22.3
EV/Net sales (x) 18.8 13.6 11.1 9.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 116.3 82.4 64.5 54.2
EV/EBIT (x) 173.9 113.6 85.7 71.0
Source: Company, Axis Securities

5
 Trent Ltd Price Chart and Recommendation History

Date Reco TP Research

09-Feb-23 BUY 1,700 Result Update

28-Apr-23 BUY 1,700 Result Update

10-Aug-23 BUY 2,000 Result Update

08-Nov-23 BUY 2,750 Result Update

08-Feb-24 BUY 4,050 Result Update

30-Apr-24 BUY 4,800 Result Update

12-Aug-24 BUY 7,000 Result Update

Source: Axis Securities Research

6
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7
 Digitally signed by
NEERAJ CHADAWAR
NEERAJ CHADAWAR Date: 2024.08.12 09:40:31
+05'30'

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RATING SCALE: Definitions of ratings

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 – 18 months

BUY More than 10%

HOLD Between 10% and -10%

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NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock, but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation.

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Note: Returns stated in the rating scale are our internal benchmark.

List of Research Analyst (Fundamental):

Sr. No Name Designation Sector E-mail

1 Neeraj Chadawar Head of Research All Sectors [email protected]
2 Preeyam Tolia Research Analyst FMCG and Retail, Real Estate [email protected]
3 Omkar Tanksale Research Analyst IT, Telecom, Internet [email protected]
4 UttamkumarSrimal Research Analyst Cement, Infra, Railway [email protected]
5 Ankush Mahajan Research Analyst Pharmaceutical, Hospital, Hotel [email protected]
6 Dnyanada Vaidya Research Analyst BFSI [email protected]
7 Aditya Welekar Research Analyst Metal and Mining, Power Utilities [email protected]
8 Sani Vishe Research Analyst Chemicals Capital Goods, Mid-cap [email protected]
9 Eesha Shah Research Analyst Real Estate, Special Situation [email protected]
10 Shridhar Kallani Research Associate Auto and Auto ancillaries [email protected]
11 Shikha Doshi Research Associate Cement, Infra, Railway [email protected]
12 SuhaneeShome Research Associate FMCG and Retail [email protected]
13 Shivani More Research Associate Chemicals Capital Goods, Mid-cap [email protected]
14 Pranav Nawale Research Associate BFSI [email protected]
15 Darsh Solanki Research Associate Metal and Mining, Power Utilities [email protected]
16 Arundhati Bagchi Research Associate Database Analyst, Economy Arundhati [email protected]