① ① To

probability that Tom draws blue ball

find
-
a we can
,

total
of
probability

user law .

B =
event that Tom draws a blue ball .

A: event that he selects particular bo

a
.

PCB) =
P(B(A , ) P(A , ) +
P(B1A2)P(A2) + P(BIAs) P(A3)

P(B(A )
% I P(B(A2) P(BIAS)
= E
=

=
=

,
=
=

-
=

of selecting
PCA ) PCA2) P(Az) each
I
probability

.
,
= boc=
,

P(B) =

2 5
x
+

4x5 +

3x5

i +
=

= = +
=

I 7 +
=

1 =

E -

PA , 11)

A A
② -

I )
P(B) =

1736
P(A21B) PAC
As P(A P(A2) P(AS)
=
=
=

P(A31B)
BRA
=

P(A , 1B)
ET E *** =
=

P(A21B)
E ** E
= =
=
 PAs1B) =
- ** =

Tom selected
Posterior
probability that Bo1
_
~

he drew blue ball

given
a

Tom selected
Posterior
probability that
Box2=
he drew blue ball
given
a

Tom selected
Posterior
probability that Box
3-
he drew blue ball
given
a

③ For BOC 1
,

If firstball wo . 5

ball addition
After so ,

P
of second blue
3
1 =
=

Combined
probability =

3- I =
B

If first
ball si
red e

additio
After so
ball =

t
e

combined
I
probability
-

I
Total for Box 1 :
Y +=
For BoC2
If firstballs Y
,

ball addition
After so ,

P
of second blu 100
=

. =

250 s

Combined
probability =

Y = to
*
 If first ball is red s
P -150 =
3 =

200 -

addition
After so ball ,

P
of second blue s =
s

combined probability-

2 5= x

Total
for BoC 2
Yo =
:

ForBocirst P
ball is blue

1 -
=
=

ball addition
After so ,

P
of scord be

Y
= =

00

Combined
probability =
+
Y =

If first ball is red

-=
50
130

addition
After so ball ,

P /
of second blue -200
= 10 =

>3 I
*
combined
probability =

Total for Bo 3 :

Y +
% I =

= (I
(a)
4 ⑦) = x
E
=

+ +
:

8
=>

-
② P(YA) Probability Candi
of dalarhupating
--
=

in eit poll

for o t

PCY(B) =

Probability of participating in ext ball

candidate B
for
=

0 . 3

PCAIY) =

Probability that respondent voted for

candidate A in exit poll 0 6 =

P(AIY) = P(Y/A) .
P(AS
(PCA)
P(YIB) FIB) +

P(A) P(B)
+ 1 =

P(B) 1 P(A)
= -

P
0 6.
=

=Po
0 .

0 .
24 PCA) +
0 .
18 =

0 .
7 PCA)

0 .
46P(A) =

0 .
18
PCA) 0 3913
is=
= .

so
of quoters who poted
proportion
.

is
·

candidate
③ I For events A and B to be both
disjoint and
independent ·

PSAnBT =
0 I disjoint)
P(ADB) =

P(A)xP(B) I independent)

P(A) x
P(B7 =

0
Either PCA) =

0 M P(BT =
0 .

One both events have

probability

or a
zero
of occuring
② Pairwise
independence

·
E
, 8Ez -

% DCE23
PCE , 7
I
= =

P(E nE2) PCE2)

So , E,
,

and
=

E
Y asre
- PCE )
, x
independent
.
,
2

PlEz) - both than me a en**

P(E3) 4 5 t
=

+ =

E , &E3 :

If E <PLE (E1) =
them

occurs ,
,

P(E , nE3) PCE , ) x PCE3) Y

=
=

So E , 8 Es are independent .
,

E28Es :

PLE2MEz) =
PLEC) X PLEs) =

y
So , E28 Es are independent .
Mutual independence :

PCE , DE2 DEz)

I
=

P(E , P(E2) PlEs) 2x E

=

x
=

x t t
P(E , nEznEs) #
PTE ,) PIEL) PIES)

They are not

mutually independent
But
they are bairwise independent .
 ③ Given A , B, C event
independent

are ,

PCARB7 =

PCA) x P(B)
PLANC)
=

P(A) > PCC3

P(BNC3 =
P(B) x PCC)
PCAMBDC) =
P(A) xP(B) + PCC)

To
of BUC
is
show A independent ,

PCA /BUC) =

PCA) P(BUC)

P(An(BUC)) P((BUC) ARIBUC) = -

PIBUC) P(ARB)
=>
P(AUC) - -

+ P(ABAC)

=> P(BUC) -

P(A)P(B) -

P(A) PCC)
+ P(A) P(13) PCC)

P(AY) =
1 -

P(A)
PCA n (BUC)) =

P()-P(A))/BUC))
PCBUC) -
P(A) PCB) -
P(A)P(2) +
P(A)P1B> PSc)
=

D -

P(A))P(BUC)

P(BUC) =

P(B) +
P(c) -
P(B) PIC)

probability)
,
property

P(B) P(C)
+
-

P(B) Pcc) -

P(A) P(B) -

PCA) PCC)
P(A) P(B) Dcc)
+
=1 -
P(A) (P(B) P(x) P(B) + -
PCC))
Both sides are same ,

P(A'n(BUC)) =
PCAY PCBUC)
-

... Al is

independ of BVC
I(Tom draws a blue ball on Is attempt) =

a
g
(Tom drdwe a ball I attempt) I
guen
on
=

i+b
g
+

D (Tom draws a bed ball on Ist attempt) =

-
e+
brg
blue ball
first
① He draws
dras:
a on

n b
g
+ +

② He draws ball and then blu :

green
a

P(G) x P(B, )

P(B 7 ,
=
P(B) +
P(K) XP(B ) ,
E Watermati takino
ng

b
x3

PCB , ) =

When Tom draws a ball ,

there are 3 probabilitie :

Its in which case he keeps drawing Is

green odds
·
,

his uncharged
remain

~Its blue so he states S

· Its red
,
so he also stops .

PCB) Tom blue

bally
ball
By &
=
was a

for first befor

time
red