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Assignment 4

Assignment 4 stats in data science (comsats university islamabad)

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Sultan mehmood hamza
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3 views

Assignment 4

Assignment 4 stats in data science (comsats university islamabad)

Uploaded by

Sultan mehmood hamza
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI)

Department of Computer Science


FALL 2024

Assignment No.4
Class: BSDS-4
Course: DSC-300-Statistical Methods in Data Science
Dated: December 29, 2024.
Submission Deadline: January 02, 2025.

CLO 4: Apply decomposition techniques to analyse time-series data.

Question No.1: Answer the following:


I. What is a time series and how does it differ from other types of data?
II. Explain the difference between trend, seasonality, and noise in a time series.
III. What is detrending in time-series analysis, and why is it necessary?
IV. What is the role of seasonal decomposition in time series analysis?
V. What is the difference between additive and multiplicative models in time series analysis?
VI. What is the impact of detrending on the analysis of a time series, and how does it affect model building?
VII. How would you decide if a time series follows an additive or multiplicative model?
Question No. 2:
Quarterly sales of a certain fertilizer over the period 2012-2016 in thousands of tons, were as follows:

Years
Quarter
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
st
1 70 75 80 88 97
2nd 81 93 105 121 138
3rd 89 108 150 167 187
4th 115 152 195 211 223

1. Find the trend using the following methods and detrend the data for both additive and multiplicative models for
all methods:
a. Semi-average method
b. 4-quarter moving average
c. Fit first degree and second degree least square equations.

2. Find the seasonal indices using the following methods, Also, de-seasonalize the data for both additive and
multiplicative models for all methods:
a. The percentage-of-annual average
b. Ratio-to-moving average.
c. Ratio-to-trend method.

Question No. 3:
The following data pertain to the rainfall in inches in England and Wales:
Month/Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2000 6.2 1.8 0.9 1.4 3.2 2.3 2.2 3.2 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.1
2001 3.3 1.7 0.5 2.2 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.2 4.5 6.1 2.8
2002 3.4 3.1 1.3 1.7 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.8 2.5 4.1 0.8 4.1
2003 3.4 3.4 1.5 1.8 3.0 3.4 3.1 5.4 4.9 1.5 6.2 4.0

1. Find the trend using the following methods and detrend the data for both additive and multiplicative models for
all methods:
a. Semi-average method
b. 6-month moving average
c. Fit first degree and second degree least square equations.

2. Find the seasonal indices using the following methods, Also, de-seasonalize the data for both additive and
multiplicative models for all methods:
a. The percentage-of-annual average
b. Ratio-to-moving average.
c. Ratio-to-trend method.

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