Probability and

Counting Rules

1
Probability and Counting Rules

Outline
1 Sample Spaces and Probability
2 The Addition Rules for Probability
3 The Multiplication Rules and Conditional
Probability
4 Counting Rules
5 Probability and Counting Rules

Slide 2
Probability and Counting Rules

Objectives
1 Determine sample spaces and find the probability of
an event, using classical probability or empirical
probability.
2 Find the probability of compound events, using the
addition rules.
3 Find the probability of compound events, using the
multiplication rules.
4 Find the conditional probability of an event.

Slide 3
 Probability
•Probability can be defined as the chance
of an event occurring. It can be used to
quantify what the “odds” are that a specific
event will occur.

•Some examples of how probability is used

everyday would be weather forecasting,
“75% chance of snow” or for setting
insurance rates.
Bluman, Chapter 4 4
 Sample Spaces and Probability
• A probability experiment is a chance
process that leads to well-defined results
called outcomes.
• An outcome is the result of a single trial of a
probability experiment.
• A sample space is the set of all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
• An event consists of outcomes.

Bluman, Chapter 4 5
 Sample Spaces

Experiment Sample Space

Toss a coin Head, Tail
Roll a die 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Answer a true/false True, False
question
Toss two coins HH, HT, TH, TT

Bluman, Chapter 4 6
 Example 1 : Rolling Dice
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.

Bluman, Chapter 4 7
Exercise #1
If two dice are rolled one time, find the
probability of getting these results.

a. A sum of 6
b. Doubles
c. A sum of 7 or 11
d. A sum greater than 9
e. A sum less than or equal to 4
a. A sum of 6
Total of 36 outcomes

b. Doubles

There are six ways to get doubles. They are (1,1), (2,2),
(3,3), (4,4), (5,5), and (6,6).
 Total of 36 outcomes
c. A sum of 7 or 11
There are six ways to get a sum of 7. They are (1,6), (2,5),
(3,4), (4,3), (5,2), and (6,1).
There are two ways to get a sum of 11. They are (5,6) and
(6,5).

d. A sum of greater than 9

To get a sum greater than nine, one must roll a 10, 11, or 12.
There are six ways to get a 10, 11, or 12. They are (4,6), (5,5),
(6,4), (6,5), (5,6), and (6,6).
e. The patient has had 1 or 2 tests done.
Number of Number
Tests of
Performed Patients
0 12
1 8
2 2
3 3
4 or more 5
 Example 2: Gender of Children
Find the sample space for the gender of
the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.

BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Bluman, Chapter 4 12
TREE DIAGRAM: Gender of Children
Use a tree diagram to find the sample space for the
gender of three children in a family.
B BBB
B
G BBG
B
B BGB
G
G
BGG
B
B GBB
G
G GBG
B
G
G GGB
Bluman, Chapter 4 13
GGG
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 14
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Classical probability uses sample spaces to
determine the numerical probability that an
event will happen and assumes that all outcomes
in the sample space are equally likely to occur.

Bluman, Chapter 4 15
 Sample Spaces and Probability

Rounding Rule for Probabilities

Probabilities should be expressed as reduced
fractions or rounded to two or three decimal
places. When the probability of an event is an
extremely small decimal, it is permissible to
round the decimal to the first nonzero digit after
the decimal point.

Bluman, Chapter 4 16
 Example : Gender of Children
If a family has three children, find the probability
that two of the three children are girls.

Sample Space:
BBB BBG BGB BGG GBB GBG GGB GGG

Three outcomes (BGG, GBG, GGB) have two girls.

The probability of having two of three children

being girls is 3/8.
Bluman, Chapter 4 17
 PROBABILITY RULES
Probability Rule 1
The probability of any event E is a number (either a fraction or
decimal) between and including 0 and 1.

This is denoted by 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.

Probability Rule 3
If an event E is certain, then the probability of E is 1.
 Rolling a Die
When a single die is rolled, what is the probability of
getting a number less than 7?

Since all outcomes—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6—are less than

7, the probability is

The event of getting a number less than 7 is certain.

Bluman, Chapter 4 20
Sample Spaces and Probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 21
 Example: Finding Complements
Find the complement of each event.

Even Compleme of the

Rolling a diet and Getting
nt a 1, 2, 3, 5,
Event
getting a 4 or 6
Selecting a letter of the Getting a consonant
and getting a
alphabet consona
(assume y is a
vowel nt)
Selecting a month and Getting February, March,
month
gettingthat
a begins August,
April, September,
May,
with a J November,
October, or
December
Selecting a day of the Getting Saturday or
getting
week anda Sunday
weekday
Bluman, Chapter 4 22
 Residence of People
If the probability that a person lives in an
industrialized country of the world is , find the
probability that a person does not live in an
industrialized country.

Bluman, Chapter 4 23
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 24
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Empirical probability relies on
actual experience to determine the
likelihood of outcomes.

Bluman, Chapter 4 25
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
a. A person has type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 26
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
b. A person has type A or type B blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 27
 Example : Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
c. A person has neither type A nor type O blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 28
 Example: Blood Types
In a sample of 50 people, 21 had type O blood, 22 had
type A blood, 5 had type B blood, and 2 had type AB
blood. Set up a frequency distribution and find the
following probabilities.
d. A person does not have type AB blood.
Type Frequency
A 22
B 5
AB 2
O 21
Total 50
Bluman, Chapter 4 29
 Law of Large Numbers

•When a coin is tossed one time, it is

common knowledge that the
probability of getting a head is . But
what happens when the coin is
tossed 50 times? Will it come up
heads 25 times?
If the empirical probability of getting a
head is computed by using a small
number of trials, it is usually not
exactly. However, as the number of trials
increases, the empirical probability of
getting a head will approach the
theoretical probability of , if in fact the
coin is fair (i.e., balanced). This
phenomenon is an example of the law of
large numbers.
 Sample Spaces and Probability
There are three basic interpretations of
probability:

•Classical probability

•Empirical probability

•Subjective probability

Bluman, Chapter 4 32
 Sample Spaces and Probability
Subjective probability uses a probability
value based on an educated guess or
estimate, employing opinions and inexact
information.

Examples: weather forecasting, predicting

outcomes of sporting events

Bluman, Chapter 4 33
 APPLICATION: Tossing a Coin
Assume you are at a carnival and decide to play one of the
games. You spot a table where a person is flipping a coin,
and since you have an understanding of basic probability,
you believe that the odds of winning are in your favor.
When you get to the table, you find out that all you have to
do is to guess which side of the coin will be facing up after
it is tossed. You are assured that the coin is fair, meaning
that each of the two sides has an equally likely chance of
occurring. You think back about what you learned in your
statistics class about probability before you decide what to
bet on. Answer the following questions about the
coin-tossing game.
1. What is the sample space?
2. What are the possible outcomes?
3. What does the classical approach to
probability say about computing
probabilities for this type of
problem?
You decide to bet on heads, believing that it
has a 50% chance of coming up. A friend of
yours, who had been playing the game for a
while before you got there, tells you that
heads has come up the last 9 times in a row.
You remember the law of large numbers.
4. What is the law of large numbers, and does
it change your thoughts about what will occur
on the next toss?
5. What does the empirical approach to
probability say about this problem, and could
you use it to solve this problem?
6. Can subjective probabilities be used to help
solve this problem? Explain.
7. Assume you could win $1 million if you
could guess what the results of the next toss
will be. What would you bet on? Why?
 Addition Rules for Probability
• Two events are mutually exclusive events if
they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they
have no outcomes in common)

Bluman, Chapter 4 39
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
a. Getting an odd number and getting an even
number

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting an even number: 2, 4, or 6

Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 40
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not, when a single
die is rolled.
b. Getting a 3 and getting an odd number

Getting a 3: 3
Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 41
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually exclusive
and which are not, when a single die is rolled.
c. Getting an odd number and getting a number less
than 4

Getting an odd number: 1, 3, or 5

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Not Mutually Exclusive

Bluman, Chapter 4 42
 Example : Rolling a Die
Determine which events are mutually
exclusive and which are not, when a single
die is rolled.
d. Getting a number greater than 4 and getting
a number less than 4

Getting a number greater than 4: 5 or 6

Getting a number less than 4: 1, 2, or 3

Mutually Exclusive
Bluman, Chapter 4 43
 Example : R&D Employees
The corporate research and development centers
for three local companies have the following
number of employees:
U.S. Steel 110
Alcoa 750
Bayer Material Science 250
If a research employee is selected at random, find
the probability that the employee is employed by
U.S. Steel or Alcoa.

Bluman, Chapter 4 44
Example 4-18: R&D Employees

Bluman, Chapter 4 45
 Example : Medical Staff
In a hospital unit there are 8 nurses and 5 physicians; 7
nurses and 3 physicians are females. If a staff person is
selected, find the probability that the subject is a nurse or
a male.
Staff Females Males Total
Nurses 7 1 8
Physicians 3 2 5
Total 10 3 13

Bluman, Chapter 4 46
 Multiplication Rules

■Two events A and B are independent events

if the fact that A occurs does not affect the
probability of B occurring.

Bluman, Chapter 4 47
 Example : Tossing a Coin
A coin is flipped and a die is rolled. Find the probability of
getting a head on the coin and a 4 on the die.

This problem could be solved using sample space.

H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6

Bluman, Chapter 4 48
 Example : Survey on Stress
A Harris poll found that 46% of Americans say
they suffer great stress at least once a week. If
three people are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that they suffer
great stress at least once a week.

Bluman, Chapter 4 49
 Example : University Crime
At a university in western Pennsylvania, there
were 5 burglaries reported in 2003, 16 in 2004,
and 32 in 2005. If a researcher wishes to select at
random two burglaries to further investigate, find
the probability that both will have occurred in
2004.

Bluman, Chapter 4 50
 4.3 Conditional Probability

■Conditional probability is the probability

that the second event B occurs given that
the first event A has occurred.

Bluman, Chapter 4 51
 Example : Parking Tickets
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and
gets a parking ticket is 0.06, and the probability that Sam
cannot find a legal parking space and has to park in the
no-parking zone is 0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school
and has to park in a no-parking zone. Find the probability
that he will get a parking ticket.
N = parking in a no-parking zone
T = getting a ticket

Bluman, Chapter 4 52
 Example : Women in the Military
A recent survey asked 100 people if they thought women
in the armed forces should be permitted to participate in
combat. The results of the survey are shown.

Bluman, Chapter 4 53
 Example : Women in the Military
a. Find the probability that the respondent answered yes
(Y), given that the respondent was a female (F).

Bluman, Chapter 4 54
 Example : Women in the Military
b. Find the probability that the respondent was a male
(M), given that the respondent answered no (N).

Bluman, Chapter 4 55
 Example : Bow Ties
The Neckware Association of America reported that 3% of
ties sold in the United States are bow ties (B). If 4
customers who purchased a tie are randomly selected, find
the probability that at least 1 purchased a bow tie.

Bluman, Chapter 4 56
 EXAMPLE
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
cards, find the probability of getting the
following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
a. A king or a queen or a jack.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 4 jacks,
hence:
P (king or queen or jack)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
b. A club or a heart or a spade.
There are 13 clubs, 13 hearts, and 13
spades, hence:

P(club or heart or spade)

If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
c. A king or a queen or a diamond.
There are 4 kings, 4 queens, and 13
diamonds but the king and queen of
diamonds were counted twice, hence:
P(king or queen or diamond)
P(king) + P(queen) + P(diamond)
– P(king or queen of diamonds)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
d. An ace or a diamond or a heart.
There are 4 aces, 13 diamonds and 13
hearts. There is one ace of diamonds
and one ace of hearts, hence:
P(ace or diamond or heart)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
There are 4 nines, 4 tens, 13 spades, and
13 clubs. There is one nine of spades,
one ten of spades, one nine of clubs, and
one ten of clubs, hence:
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
If one card is drawn from an ordinary deck of cards,
find the probability of getting the following:
e. A 9 or a 10 or a spade or a club.
P ( 9 or 10 or spade or club)
 EXAMPLE
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following
probabilities.

a. None have computers

b. At least one has a computer
c. All have computers
 At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following probabilities.
a. None have computers
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following probabilities.
b. At least one has a computer
At a local university 54.3% of incoming first-year
students have computers. If three students are
selected at random, find the following probabilities.
c. All have computers
EXAMPLE

0.1 D (0.8)(0.1) = 0.08

0.8
0.9 ND
0.18 D (0.2)(0.18) = 0.036
0.2
0.82 ND
Finally, use the addition rule, since the item is
chosen at random from model I or model II.

0.1 D (0.8)(0.1) = 0.08

0.8
0.9 ND
0.18 D (0.2)(0.18) = 0.036
0.2
0.82 ND
EXAMPLE
In Rolling Acres Housing Plan, 42% of the houses have
a deck and a garage; 60% have a deck. Find the
probability that a home has a garage, given
that it has a deck.
EXAMPLE
Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
Consider this table concerning utility
patents granted for a specific year.
Select one patent at random.
a. What is the probability that it is a
foreign patent, given that it was
issued to a corporation?
b. What is the probability that it
was issued to an individual,
given that it was a U.S. patent?
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
a. What is the probability that it is a
foreign patent, given that it was
issued to a corporation?
P(foreign patent | corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent | corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
P(foreign patent | corporation)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267
b. What is the probability that it was
issued to an individual, given that
it was a U.S. patent?

P (individual | U.S.)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267

P(individual | U.S.)
 Corporation Government Individual
U.S. 70,894 921 6129
Foreign 63,182 104 6267

P(individual | U.S.)
Probability and
Counting Rules
 Counting Rules
■The fundamental counting rule is also called the
multiplication of choices.
■Ina sequence of n events in which the first one
has k1 possibilities and the second event has k2
and the third has k3, and so forth, the total
number of possibilities of the sequence will be
k1 · k2 · k3 · · · kn

Bluman, Chapter 4 79
 Example: Paint Colors
A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints.
The categories include
Color: red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semigloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select one
color, one type, one texture, and one use?

Bluman, Chapter 4 80
 Counting Rules
■ Factorial is the product of all the positive
numbers from 1 to a number.

■ Permutation is an arrangement of objects in a

specific order. Order matters.

Bluman, Chapter 4 81
 Counting Rules
■Combination is a grouping of objects. Order
does not matter.

Bluman, Chapter 4 82
 Example: Business Location
Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in
which to establish her business. She decides to rank each
location according to certain criteria, such as price of the
store and parking facilities. How many different ways can
she rank the 5 locations?

Using factorials, 5! =
120.
Using permutations, 5P5 =
120.
Bluman, Chapter 4 83
 Example : Business Location
Suppose the business owner in the previous example
wishes to rank only the top 3 of the 5 locations. How
many different ways can she rank them?

Using permutations, 5P3 =

60.
Bluman, Chapter 4 84
 Example : Television Ads
The advertising director for a television show has 7 ads to use on the
program.

If she selects 1 of them for the opening of the show, 1 for the middle
of the show, and 1 for the ending of the show, how many possible
ways can this be accomplished?

Since order is important, the solution is

Hence, there would be 210 ways to show 3 ads.

Bluman, Chapter 4 85
 Example : School Musical Plays
A school musical director can select 2 musical plays to
present next year. One will be presented in the fall, and one
will be presented in the spring. If she has 9 to pick from,
how many different possibilities are there?

Order matters, so we will use permutations.

Bluman, Chapter 4 86
 Example : Book Reviews
A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides
that he can use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How many different
ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

The placement in the newspaper is not mentioned, so order does

not matter. We will use combinations.

Bluman, Chapter 4 87
 Example : Committee Selection
In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of
3 women and 2 men is to be chosen. How many different
possibilities are there?

There are not separate roles listed for each committee

member, so order does not matter. We will use
combinations.

There are 35·10 = 350 different possibilities.

Bluman, Chapter 4 88
 Probability and Counting Rules
The counting rules can be combined with the probability
rules in this chapter to solve many types of probability
problems.

By using the fundamental counting rule, the

permutation rules, and the combination rule, you can
compute the probability of outcomes of many
experiments, such as getting a full house when 5 cards
are dealt or selecting a committee of 3 women and 2
men from a club consisting of 10 women and 10 men.

Bluman, Chapter 4 89
 Chapter 4
Probability and Counting Rules

Section 4-5
Example 4-52
Page #246

Bluman, Chapter 4 90
 Example 4-52: Magazines
A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 Newstime
magazines on the counter. If two customers purchased a
magazine, find the probability that one of each magazine was
purchased.

TV Graphic: One magazine of the 6 magazines

Newstime: One magazine of the 8 magazines
Total: Two magazines of the 14 magazines

Bluman, Chapter 4 91
 Example : Combination Lock
A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the alphabet. If a
3-letter combination is needed, find the probability that the
combination will consist of the letters ABC in that order. The
same letter can be used more than once. (Note: A combination
lock is really a
permutation lock.)

There are 26·26·26 = 17,576 possible combinations.

The letters ABC in order create one combination.

Bluman, Chapter 4 92
 EXAMPLE
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can be
made if the digits can be used more than once? If the
first digit must be a 5 and repetitions are not permitted?
If digits can be used more than
once: Since there are three spaces
to fill and 10 choices for each
space, the solution is:
How many different 3 - digit identification tags can be
made if the digits can be used more than once? If the
first digit must be a 5 and repetitions are not permitted?
If the first digit must be a 5 and
repetitions are not permitted:
There is only one way to assign
the first digit, 9 ways to assign
the second, and 8 ways to assign
the third:
EXAMPLE
How many different ID cards can be made if there are
6 digits on a card and no digit can be used more than
once?
Since order is important, the solution is:
 EXAMPLE
How many ways can a committee of 4 people be
selected from a group of 10 people?
Since order is not important, the solution is:
EXAMPLE
How many ways can a foursome of 2 men and 2 women
be selected from 10 men and 12 women in a golf club?
EXAMPLE
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3
men. Three are selected to attend a management
seminar. Find these probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be women.
b. All 3 selected will be men.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be selected.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be selected.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3
men. Three are selected to attend a management
seminar. Find these probabilities.
a. All 3 selected will be women.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3
men. Three are selected to attend a management
seminar. Find these probabilities.
b. All 3 selected will be men.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3
men. Three are selected to attend a management
seminar. Find these probabilities.
c. 2 men and 1 woman will be selected.
In a company there are 7 executives: 4 women and 3
men. Three are selected to attend a management
seminar. Find these probabilities.
d. 1 man and 2 women will be selected.
 EXAMPLE
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
a. All dentists.
b. 2 dentists and 2 doctors.
c. All doctors.
d. 3 doctors and 1 dentist.
e. 1 doctor and 3 dentists.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
a. All dentists.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
b. 2 dentists and 2 doctors.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
c. All doctors.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
d. 3 doctors and 1 dentist.
A committee of 4 people is to be formed from 6 doctors
and 8 dentists. Find the probability that the committee
will consist of:
e. 1 doctor and 3 dentists.
EXAMPLE
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose 2
socks at random in the dark.
a. What is the probability that you
get a pair of red socks?
b. What is the probability that you
get a pair of black socks?
c. What is the probability that you
get 2 unmatched socks?
d. Where did the other red sock
go?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose 2
socks at random in the dark.
a. What is the probability that you
get a pair of red socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose 2
socks at random in the dark.
b. What is the probability that
you get a pair of black socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose 2
socks at random in the dark.
c. What is the probability that you
get 2 unmatched socks?
A drawer contains 11 identical red socks and 8
identical black socks. Suppose that you choose 2
socks at random in the dark.
d. Where did the other red sock go?

It probably got lost in the wash!

EXAMPLE
Find the probability that if 5 different- sized washers are
arranged in a row, they will be arranged in order of size.
There are 5! = 120 ways to arrange 5
washers in a row and 2 ways to have
them in correct order, small to large or
large to small; hence, the probability is: