Risk Assessment Methodology and General Concepts
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Kol YoumRisk Assessment Methodology and General Concepts
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Kol YoumCHAPTER 8.
RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
AND GENERAL CONCEPTS
8.1 INTRODUCTION
Risk assessment is the process of measuring the potential loss of life, personal injury, economic injury,
and property damage resulting from hazards. It focuses on the following elements:
• Hazard identification—The systematic use of all available information to determine the types
of disasters likely to affect a jurisdiction (“hazards of concern”), how often these events can
occur, and their potential severity.
• Vulnerability identification—The process of determining the impact of these events on the
people, property, environment, economy and lands of a region
• Damage estimates—Estimation of the cost of damage or cost that can be avoided through
mitigation.
In addition to benefiting mitigation planning, risk assessment information allows emergency management
personnel to establish early response priorities by identifying potential hazards and vulnerable assets.
The risk assessment in this plan evaluates the risk of hazards likely in Roseville. It meets the requirements
of 44CFR (Section 201.6.c.2) for risk assessment of hazards; it also looks at the possible impacts of
human-caused and human health hazards. Chapters 10 through 18 describe the risks associated with the
identified hazards of concern for the City of Roseville. Each chapter elaborates on one hazard, the city’s
vulnerability to that hazard, and probable event scenarios.
8.2 METHODOLOGY
The following steps were used to define the risk of each hazard:
• Identify and profile each hazard—This assessment includes the following information for
each hazard:
– Geographic areas most affected by the hazard
– Event frequency estimates
– Severity estimates
– Warning time likely to be available for response.
• Determine exposure to each hazard—Exposure was determined by overlaying hazard maps
with an inventory of structures and infrastructure to determine which facilities are exposed to
each hazard. The City’s geographical information system (GIS) contains extensive coverage
of homes, industry, roads, bridges, oil pipelines, hazardous material storage sites, electricity,
and water mains.
• Assess the vulnerability of exposed facilities—The vulnerability of structures and
infrastructure was determined by interpreting the probability of occurrence of each event and
assessing exposure. Tools such a GIS and FEMA’s HAZUS-MH program were used for this
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City of Roseville 2011 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan …
step. Maps generated by HAZUS-MH were used to generate results for hazards for which the
HAZUS-MH program was not otherwise used.
8.3 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDS OF CONCERN
The Steering Committee considered the full range of natural and human caused hazards that could impact
the area, and then identified and ranked the hazards that present the greatest concern. The selection of
hazards of concern was based on the following criteria:
• The California State Hazard Mitigation Plan identified Placer County as being susceptible to
the hazard.
• Historical occurrence of the hazard within the City of Roseville has caused fatalities, injury,
or property damage.
• There is local knowledge and perception that the hazard could significantly impact the
planning area, regardless of past occurrence.
Based on review of all available resources, nine hazards of concern were identified for the 2011 plan:
• Dam failure
• Drought
• Earthquake
• Flooding
• Human-caused hazards
• Human health hazards
• Landslide
• Severe weather
• Wildfire.
The dam failure hazard was added to the risk assessment for the 2011 plan, based on recommendations
from FEMA Region IX during its review of the initial Roseville Hazard Mitigation Plan.
8.4 RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS
8.4.1 Flood, Earthquake and Dam Failure—HAZUS-MH
Overview
In 1997, FEMA developed the Hazards U.S. (HAZUS) model to estimate losses caused by earthquakes
and identify areas that face the highest risk and potential for loss. HAZUS was later expanded into a
multi-hazard methodology (HAZUS-MH), with new models for estimating potential losses from wind
(hurricanes) and flood (riverine and coastal) hazards.
HAZUS-MH is a GIS-based software program used to support risk assessments, mitigation planning, and
emergency planning and response. It provides a wide range of inventory data (demographics, building
stock, critical facility, transportation, utility lifelines, etc.) and multiple models to estimate potential losses
from natural disasters. The program displays hazard data and damage and economic loss estimates for
buildings and infrastructure. Its advantages include the following:
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…8. RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND GENERAL CONCEPTS
• Provides a consistent platform and methodology for assessing risk across geographic and
political entities.
• Provides a framework in which to save data so that it can readily be updated as population,
inventory, and other factors change and as mitigation-planning efforts evolve.
• Facilitates the review of mitigation plans because it helps to ensure that FEMA
methodologies are incorporated.
• Supports FEMA grant application processes in calculating benefits using FEMA’s definitions
and terminology.
• Produces output that can be used to support communication and interaction with local
stakeholders, a requirement of the mitigation planning process.
• Can be used by the local government to manage and update a hazard mitigation plan
throughout its implementation.
The HAZUS-MH version used for this plan was MR-4, released by FEMA in April 2009. New data and
tools released with MR-4 include the following:
• Updated schools and transportation data
• Dam/levee analysis capability in flood module
• Ability to determine pre-FIRM and post-FIRM census blocks
• Building valuations updated to R.S. Means 2009
• Building counts for single-family dwellings and manufactured housing based on census
counts instead of calculated counts
• New flood model tools that enable the user to import user-supplied flood maps and flood
depth grids or generate a flood depth grid using specified Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map
(DFIRM) floodplain boundaries and digital elevation grids.
HAZUS-MH provides default data for inventory, vulnerability and hazards; this default data can be
supplemented with local data for a more refined analysis. The model can perform three levels of analysis:
• Level 1—All of the information needed to produce an estimate of losses is included in the
software’s default data. This data is derived from national databases and describes in general
terms the characteristic parameters of the planning area.
• Level 2—More accurate estimates of losses require more detailed information about the
planning area. To produce Level 2 estimates of losses, detailed GIS information is required
about local geology, hydrology, hydraulics and building inventory, as well as data about
utilities and critical facilities.
• Level 3—This level of analysis generates the most accurate loss estimates. It requires
detailed engineering and geotechnical input to customize the methodology for the planning
area.
Application for This Plan
The guidance Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment: How-to Guide (FEMA 433) was used to support
the application of the model for this plan. The following methods were used to assess specific hazards:
• Dam Failure—A Level 2 analysis was performed using depth grids generated from the
Folsom Dam Containment Dike Failure Risk Assessment Project. GIS building and assessor
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City of Roseville 2011 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan …
data (replacement cost values and detailed structure information) for 18,034 facilities were
loaded into HAZUS-MH. City of Roseville detailed structure information was used to
develop the database of user-defined facilities. Data analysis was run using the flood
methodology described below, focusing on the dam failure inundation areas.
• Flood—A Level 2 analysis was performed. GIS building and assessor data (replacement cost
values and detailed structure information) for 154 facilities were loaded into HAZUS-MH.
City of Roseville detailed structure information was used to develop the database of user-
defined facilities. Property-specific data provided by the City included lowest adjacent grade,
first floor elevation, building size, and flood elevations. An updated inventory was used in
place of the HAZUS-MH defaults for essential facilities, transportation and utility features.
The City’s regulatory floodplain was used to delineate flood hazard areas and estimate
potential losses from the 10-, 50-, 100- and 500-year flood events. Using the City’s regulatory
floodplain boundaries and building-specific elevation data provided by the City, a flood depth
grid for each flood interval was generated and integrated into the model.
• Earthquake—A Level 2 analysis was performed to assess earthquake risk and exposure.
Earthquake shake maps and probabilistic data prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS) were used for the analysis of this hazard. An updated General Building Stock was
developed using replacement cost values and detailed structure information from assessor
tables. An updated inventory of essential facilities, transportation and utility features was
used in place of the HAZUS-MH defaults. A modified version of the California Department
of Conservation National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) soils was used
for the analysis. Modifications included applying soils classification D (soft soils) to areas in
and around the City of Roseville regulatory floodplain.
8.4.2 Landslide, Severe Weather, and Wildfire
For most of the hazards of concern, historical data was not adequate to model future losses. However,
HAZUS-MH is able to map hazard areas and calculate exposures if geographic information is available
on the locations of the hazards and inventory data. Areas and inventory susceptible to some of the hazards
of concern were mapped and exposure was evaluated. For other hazards, a qualitative analysis was
conducted using the best available data and professional judgment. Local information was gathered from
a variety of sources. Frequency and severity indicators include past events and the expert opinions of
geologists, emergency management specialists and others. To the extent possible, hazard locations were
mapped using GIS. The primary data sources were City of Roseville and Placer County GIS databases,
augmented with data from state and federal sources. Additional data sources were as follows:
• Landslide—A dataset of steep slopes was generated using a 1/3-arcsecond digital elevation
model. Two slope classifications were created: 15 to 30 percent; and greater than 30 percent.
• Severe Weather—Severe weather data was downloaded from the Natural Resources
Conservation Service and the National Climatic Data Center.
• Wildfire—Information on wildfire hazards areas was provided by the California Department
of Forestry and Fire Protection. Wildfire Hazard Classifications define the application of
various mitigation strategies to reduce risk associated with wildfires.
8.4.3 Drought
The risk assessment methodologies used for the 2011 plan focus on damage to structures. Because
drought does not impact structures, the risk assessment for drought was more limited and qualitative than
the assessment for the other hazards of concern.
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…8. RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND GENERAL CONCEPTS
8.4.4 Human-Caused Hazards and Human Health Hazards
The non-natural hazards of concern were assessed to different standards than the natural hazards for the
following reasons:
• The assessment of non-natural hazards is optional under the 44CFR Section 201.6 planning
requirements.
• The data needed to assess risk, such as maps of extent and location and applied damage
functions, are not readily available for these types of hazards.
• A key element of risk is the probability of occurrence. Probabilities are usually assigned
based on past historical occurrences. While human caused and human health hazards have
had significant impacts on our nation as a whole, they have not impacted regions of the
country uniformly as do natural hazard events. The lack of record of past occurrences within
a planning area makes it difficult to assign probability of occurrence.
8.4.5 Limitations
Loss estimates, exposure assessments and hazard-specific vulnerability evaluations rely on the best
available data and methodologies. Uncertainties are inherent in any loss estimation methodology and arise
in part from incomplete scientific knowledge concerning hazards and their effects on the built
environment. Uncertainties also result from the following:
• Approximations and simplifications necessary to conduct a study
• Incomplete or outdated inventory, demographic, or economic parameter data
• The unique nature, geographic extent and severity of each hazard
• Mitigation measures already employed and the amount of advance notice residents have to
prepare for a specific hazard event.
These factors can result in a range of uncertainty in loss estimates, possibly by a factor of two or more.
Therefore, exposure and loss estimates are approximate. These results do not predict precise results and
should be used only to understand relative risk. Over the long term, the City of Roseville will collect
additional data to assist in estimating potential losses associated with other hazards.
8.5 CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate includes patterns of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind and seasons. Climate patterns play
a fundamental role in shaping natural ecosystems, and the human economies and cultures that depend on
them. “Climate change” refers to seasonal changes over a long period of time. It is generally perceived in
the emergency management profession that climate change will have a measurable impact on the
occurrence and severity of natural hazards around the world. Impacts include:
• Sea ice and snow cover losses will continue, and declining snowpack will affect snow-
dependent water supplies and stream flow levels around the world.
• Sea level is projected to rise 7 to 23 inches during the 21st century due to melting snow and
ice on land and thermal expansion of ocean waters.
• The risk of drought and the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves are expected to
increase.
• More extreme precipitation is likely, increasing the risk of flooding; if the world’s average
temperature warms only an additional 2.7ºF to 4.5ºF above pre-industrial levels, an estimated
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City of Roseville 2011 Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan …
20 to 30 percent of known plant and animal species would be at increasingly high risk of
extinction.
Climate change will affect communities in a variety of ways. Impacts could include an increased risk for
extreme events such as drought, storms, flooding, and forest fires; more heat-related stress; the spread of
existing or new vector-born disease into a community; and increased erosion and inundation of low-lying
areas along coastlines. In many cases, communities are already facing these problems to some degree.
Climate change raises the stakes in managing these problems by changing the frequency, intensity, extent,
and/or magnitude of the problems.
In the preparation of the 2011 plan, the City of Roseville chose to address the impacts of climate change
as a secondary impact on each hazard of concern. Therefore, each chapter of this plan addressing one of
the hazards of concern includes a section on the probable impacts of climate change for that hazard of
concern.
8.6 PRESIDENTIALLY DECLARED DISASTERS
Presidentially declared disasters are typically events that cause more damage than state and local
governments and resources can handle without assistance from the federal government. A Presidential
Disaster Declaration puts into motion long-term federal recovery programs, some of them matched by
state programs, that are designed to help disaster victims, businesses and public entities. Generally, no
specific dollar loss threshold has been established for such declarations. Table 8-1 lists the Presidentially
declared disasters since 1950 that have affected Placer County, according to Placer County’s Multi-
Hazard Mitigation Plan and CalEMA.
TABLE 8-1.
PRESIDENTIAL DISASTER DECLARATIONS
Type of Event FEMA Disaster # Date
Flooding DR-47 12/23/1955
Flooding DR-82 4/4/1958
Flooding DR-138 10/24/1962
Late Winter Storms/Flooding DR-145 2/7/1963
Late Winter Storms/Flooding DR-183 12/28/1964
1969 Storms DR-253 1/26/1969
Winter storms DR-682 2/9/1983
Spring Storms/Flooding DR-758 2/18/1986
Severe Winter Storms DR-1044 1/10/1995
Late Winter Storms DR-1046 1/13/1995
Winter Storms/Flooding DR-1155 1/4/1997
Sierra Fire FM-2463 9/19/2002
Stevens Fire FM-2541 8/8/2004
Severe Rainstorms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides DR-1628 2/3/2006
Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides DR-1646 6/5/2006
Source: Placer County Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan, July 2010
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…8. RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND GENERAL CONCEPTS
8.7 CRITICAL FACILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Critical and essential facilities and infrastructure are those that are critical to the health and welfare of the
population. These become especially important after a hazard event. The Steering Committee created a
definition specific to Roseville, under which the following facilities are considered critical:
• Facilities that are vital for the City’s ability to provide essential services and protect life and
property
• Facilities whose loss would have a severe economic or catastrophic impact.
A database of critical facilities in Roseville was created to identify vulnerabilities to each hazard
addressed in this plan. The risk assessment for each hazard includes a qualitative discussion of critical
facilities with regard to that hazard. Due to the sensitivity of this information, a detailed list of facilities is
not provided in this plan. The list is on file with the City of Roseville. Map 8-1 illustrates the critical
facilities assessed by this plan.
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