Om Midterm Exam Notes 2
Om Midterm Exam Notes 2
Chapter 3
Forecasting
Forecast
The three major functions of business organizations - a statement about the future value of a variable
overlap of interest
- is an estimate about the future value of a
Lead time The time between ordering a good or variable such as demand
service and receiving it. 3.1 INTRODUCTION
- Primary goal of OM: to match supply to
1.5 PROCESS MANAGEMENT demand.
Process consists of one or more actions that - Having a forecast of demand is essential for
transform inputs into outputs. determining how much capacity or supply will
Process management is the central role of all be needed to meet demand.
management. Two Possible Sources of Anticipated Demand
- actual customer orders: planning is
3 categories of business processes: straightforward, little to no forecasting needed
1. Upper-management processes. These govern the - forecasts: most anticipated demand is derived
operation of the entire organization. Examples include Two Aspects of Forecasts
organizational governance and organizational - Expected level of demand: can be a function of
strategy. some structural variation, such as a trend or
2. Operational processes. These are the core seasonal variation
processes that make up the value stream. Examples - Forecasts accuracy: a function of the ability of
forecasters to correctly model demand,
random variation, and sometimes unforeseen - plan the use of system; short-range and
events intermediate-range planning, which involve
Forecasts are made regarding a specific time horizon tasks such as planning inventory and
- time horizon may be fairly short (e.g., an hour, workforce levels, planning purchasing and
day, week, or month), or somewhat longer production, budgeting, and scheduling
(e.g., the next six months, the next year, the Business forecasting pertains to more than predicting
next five years, or the life of a product or demand.
service) - Forecasts are also used to predict profits,
- Short-term forecasts; ongoing operations revenues, costs, productivity changes, prices
- Long-range forecasts; can be an important and availability of energy and raw materials,
strategic planning tool interest rates, movements of key economic
indicators (e.g., gross domestic product,
Forecasts are the basis for budgeting, planning inflation, government borrowing), and prices of
capacity, sales, production and inventory, personnel, stocks and bonds.
purchasing, and more. 3.2 FEATURES COMMON TO ALL FORECASTS
Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout an Forecasting techniques generally assume that the
organization: same underlying causal system that existed in the
past will continue to exist in the future.
Business Examples
Organization - Forecasts are not perfect; actual results
usually differ from predicted values
Accounting New product/process cost - Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more
estimates, profit projections, accurate than forecasts for individual items
cash management. because forecasting errors among items in a
Finance Equipment/equipment group usually have a canceling effect.
replacement needs, timing and - Forecast accuracy decreases as the time
amount of funding/borrowing period covered by the forecast—the time
needs. horizon—increases.
3.3 ELEMENTS OF A GOOD FORECAST
Human Hiring activities, including
A properly prepared forecast should fulfill certain
Resources recruitment, interviewing, and
training; requirements:
layoff planning, including - timely
outplacement counseling. - accurate
- reliable
Marketing Pricing and promotion, - meaningful units
e-business strategies, global
- in writing
competition strategies.
- simple to understand and use
MIS New/revised information - cost-effective
systems, internet services. 3.4 FORECASTING AND THE SUPPLY CHAIN
- Accurate forecasts are very important for the
Operations Schedules, capacity planning,
supply chain.
work assignments and
workloads, inventory - Inaccurate forecasts can lead to shortages and
planning, make-or-buy excesses throughout the supply chain.
decisions, outsourcing, project
management. —--SAMPLE PROBLEM SOLVING—-----
The three basic types of layout: Product layouts are 6.6 Designing Product Layouts: Line Balancing
most conducive to repetitive processing, The goal of a product layout is to arrange workers or
process layouts are used for intermittent machines in the sequence which operations
processing, and fixed-position layouts are used need to be performed. The sequence is
when projects require layouts. referred to as a production line or an
assembly line.
Types of Layouts: Line balancing The process of assigning tasks to
Product Layouts are used to achieve a smooth and workstations in such a way that the
rapid flow of large volumes of goods or workstations have approximately equal time
customers through a system. Ideal for requirements.
repetitive processing, where a smooth and
rapid flow of large volumes of goods or —--SAMPLE PROBLEM SOLVING—-----
customers is required. The work is divided into
standardized tasks, enabling specialization of
equipment and division of labor. Examples Chapter 8
include assembly lines. Location Planning and Analysis
Process Layouts. Suited for intermittent processing,
accommodating a variety of processing
requirements. Departments or functional 8.1 THE NEED FOR LOCATION DECISIONS
groupings perform similar activities, and items Existing organizations may need to make location
are moved in lots or batches. Examples decisions for a variety of reasons.
include hospitals and universities. ● to expand their markets.
● expansion at an existing location
● depletion of basic inputs. 2. Security Concerns: Increased security risks and
● a shift in markets causes them to consider theft contribute to additional costs, while border
relocation security may delay shipments.
8.2 THE NATURE OF LOCATION DECISIONS 3. Unskilled Labor: Quality and productivity may
Profit-oriented organizations base their decisions on suffer due to low labor skills, necessitating
profit potential additional training.
whereas nonprofit organizations strive to achieve a 4. Import Restrictions: Some countries impose
balance between cost and the level of customer restrictions on manufactured goods, favoring
service they provide. local suppliers.
5. Criticisms: Ethical concerns arise regarding unfair
Location Options: labor practices and environmental standards in
Expand Existing Facility: certain countries.
- Cost-effective if space available with desirable 6. Productivity: Low labor productivity may offset low
features. labor costs or other advantages.
Add new locations while retaining existing ones:
- Consider impact on total system. RISKS:
- Defensive strategy against competitors. 1. Protecting intellectual property rights:
Shut down at one location and move to another: Outsourcing to foreign countries raises
- Weigh costs and benefits against staying. concerns about preserving intellectual property
Do Nothing: rights.
- Maintain status quo if no attractive alternatives 2. Political: Political unrest and instability pose risks
found. to personnel safety and asset security.
3. Terrorism: Terrorism threatens personnel and
8.3 GLOBAL LOCATIONS assets, impacting willingness to work in
Facilitating Factors affected areas.
Two key factors that have made globalization 4. Economic: Fluctuations in economic conditions can
attractive and feasible for business organizations. negatively affect profitability.
Trade Agreements. 5. Ethical: Changing laws, corruption, and bribery
- tariffs and quotas can have a detrimental effect present legal and ethical challenges.
on trade 6. Cultural: Variances in culture can impact business
- trade agreements that are fair to all sides can strategies and consumer perceptions.
help trade to flourish. 7. Quality: Lax quality controls can result in recalls
Technology. Technological advances in and liability issues.
communication and information sharing have
been very helpful. These include texting, —---PROBLEM SOLVING—-----------
e-mail, cell phones, teleconferencing, and the
internet.
BENEFITS:
1. Markets: Companies aim to expand their markets
and serve existing customers better by
understanding local needs and responding
quickly to issues.
2. Cost Savings: Potential savings in transportation,
labor, raw materials, and taxes are significant
factors driving globalization.
3. Legal and Regulatory: Favorable liability, labor
laws, and less restrictive regulations can
reduce operational hurdles.
4. Financial: Avoidance of currency fluctuations and
tariffs, along with government incentives,
attract businesses to certain regions.
5. Other: Globalization opens doors to new ideas,
perspectives, and solutions for products and
services.
DISADVANTAGES:
1. Transportation Costs: Poor infrastructure and long
distances can lead to high transportation costs,
offsetting savings elsewhere.