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Accretion Dilution (Shell) - Framework

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
28 views3 pages

Accretion Dilution (Shell) - Framework

Uploaded by

jain.deepak2001
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLS, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 3

ILLUSTRATIVE MERGER CONSEQUENCES

($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)

Companies
Acquirer Kraft
Target Kellog
Transaction Date 2/15/2013 Fiscal Year Ending December 31,

Shares Outstanding (fully diluted) Earnings Per Share LTM (1) 2013E 2014
Acquirer - Kraft 592 Acquirer - Kraft $2.70 $2.63 $2.93
Target - Kellog 362 Target - Kellog $3.30 $3.86 $4.12

Current Share Price Price / Earnings Ratio


Acquirer - Kraft $47.17 Acquirer - Kraft 17.5x 17.9x 16.1x
Target - Kellog $59.77 Share Price Target - Kellog 18.1x 15.5x 14.5x
Offer Share Price Target - Kellog 21.8x 18.7x 17.5x
Premium for Target Shares
Target Share Price Offer- Kellog $72.00

Revenue LTM (1) 2013E 2014


Target Value of Equity Offer - Kellog $26,042 Acquirer - Kraft $18,880 $19,239 $19,835
Target Implied Transaction Value - Kellog Target - Kellog $13,649 $15,316 $15,742
Total $32,529 $34,555 $35,577
Consideration for Target Equity - Kellog % Per Share Total
Cash Component 20% $14.40 $5,208 EBITDA
Acquirer Shares Issued - Kraft 80% $57.60 $20,834 Acquirer - Kraft $3,392 $3,285 $3,551
Total 100% $72.00 $26,042 Target - Kellog $2,323 $2,626 $2,761
Total $5,715 $5,911 $6,312
Sources for Cash Component
Cash on Balance Sheet $ - Net Income
Interest Rate earned on Cash 2.0% Acquirer - Kraft $1,598 $1,557 $1,735
New Debt $5,208 Target - Kellog $1,194 $1,396 $1,490
Interest Rate on New Debt 6.0% Total $2,792 $2,953 $3,225

Sources for Acquirer Share Issues Plus: Post-Tax Synergies na $0 $0


Exchange Ratio 1.22x Less: Amortization of Intangibles (2) na $0 $0
Acquirer Shares Issued - Kraft 442 Less: Additional Net Interest Expense na ($164) ($188)
Proforma Shares Outstanding 1,034
Proforma Net Income $2,792 $2,789 $3,037
Proforma Ownership Proforma Shares Outstanding 1,034 1,034 1,034
Acquirer Shareholders - Kraft 57.3% EPS if no acquisition - Kraft $2.70 $2.63 $2.93
Target Shareholders - Kellog 42.7% EPS post acquisition - Kraft $2.70 $2.70 $2.94
Total 100.0% EPS Accretion / (Dilution) 0.0% 2.6% 0.3%
Pretax Synergies required to breakeven
Pretax Annual Synergies $0 % of revenue
Effective Tax Rate 40% % of EBITDA
Post-Tax Annual Synergies $0 Book Value of Target Equity $2,436
Goodwill
2013E Pre-Tax Synergies Required to Breakeven $0 Additional Amortizable Intangibles $0
2013E Pre-Tax Synergies Required to Breakeven as % of Proforma Revenue 0.0% Amortize Intangibles? (yes or no) yes
2013E Pre-Tax Synergies Required to Breakeven as % of Proforma EBITDA 0.0% If yes, how many years? 20
(1) LTM ending September 30, 2012.

Page 1
ILLUSTRATIVE MERGER CONSEQUENCES
($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)

MULTIPLE ANALYSIS
ACQUIRER Kellog Proforma
Kraft Current Offer Combined Companies
FD Shares Outstanding 592 362 362 1,034
Share Price $47.17 $59.77 $72.00 $47.17
Equity Value $27,925 $21,619 $26,042 $48,759

Plus: Debt $9,971 $7,937 $7,937 $23,116


Plus: Preferred Equity $0 $0 $0 $0
Plus: Minority Interest $0 $2 $2 $2
Less: Cash ($247) ($305) ($305) ($552)
Total Enterprise Value $37,649 $29,253 $33,676 $71,325

TEV / Revenue
LTM 2.0x 2.1x 2.5x 2.2x
2013E 2.0x 1.9x 2.2x 2.1x
2014E 1.9x 1.5x 2.1x 2.0x

TEV / EBITDA
LTM 11.1x 12.6x 14.5x 12.5x
2013E 11.5x 11.1x 12.8x 12.1x
2014E 10.6x 10.6x 12.2x 11.3x

Price / Earnings
LTM 17.5x 18.1x 21.8x 17.5x
2013E 17.9x 15.5x 18.7x 16.5x
2014E 16.1x 14.5x 17.5x 15.1x

Page 2
ILLUSTRATIVE MERGER CONSEQUENCES
($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)

SENSITIVITY TABLES
2013E EPS ACCRETION / DILUTION
P/E of Share Price Paid 17.9x 18.1x 18.4x 18.7x 18.9x 19.2x 19.4x
Share Price Paid 2.6% $69.00 $70.00 $71.00 $72.00 $73.00 $74.00 $75.00
0% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%
10% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
% Cash Consideration

20% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%


30% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.6% -0.7% -0.8%
40% -3.0% -3.1% -3.3% -3.5% -3.6% -3.8% -4.0%
50% -5.8% -6.1% -6.3% -6.5% -6.7% -6.9% -7.1%
60% -8.7% -9.0% -9.2% -9.5% -9.7% -10.0% -10.2%
70% -11.6% -11.9% -12.2% -12.5% -12.8% -13.1% -13.4%
80% -14.5% -14.8% -15.2% -15.5% -15.8% -16.2% -16.5%
90% -17.4% -17.8% -18.1% -18.5% -18.9% -19.3% -19.7%
100% -20.3% -20.7% -21.1% -21.5% -22.0% -22.4% -22.8%

ACQUIRER PROFORMA OWNERSHIP


Share Price Paid
57.27% $69.00 $70.00 $71.00 $72.00 $73.00 $74.00 $75.00
0% 52.8% 52.4% 52.1% 51.7% 51.4% 51.1% 50.7%
10% 55.4% 55.1% 54.7% 54.4% 54.0% 53.7% 53.4%
% Cash Consideration

20% 58.3% 58.0% 57.6% 57.3% 56.9% 56.6% 56.3%


30% 61.5% 61.2% 60.8% 60.5% 60.2% 59.8% 59.5%
40% 65.1% 64.8% 64.4% 64.1% 63.8% 63.5% 63.2%
50% 69.1% 68.8% 68.5% 68.2% 67.9% 67.6% 67.3%
60% 73.7% 73.4% 73.1% 72.8% 72.6% 72.3% 72.0%
70% 78.9% 78.6% 78.4% 78.1% 77.9% 77.7% 77.4%
80% 84.8% 84.6% 84.5% 84.3% 84.1% 83.9% 83.7%
90% 91.8% 91.7% 91.6% 91.5% 91.4% 91.3% 91.1%
100% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

PRE-TAX SYNERGIES REQUIRED TO BREAKEVEN


Share Price Paid
$0.0 $69.00 $70.00 $71.00 $72.00 $73.00 $74.00 $75.00
0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Cash Consideration

20% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30% 2.896962567 8.238537188 13.63918752 19.09891357 24.617715320871 30.1955927883 35.8325459674
40% 117.8462532 125.1491381 132.5195382 139.9574533 147.462883517551 155.035828841 162.676289264
50% 219.4022361 228.2754064 237.2189049 246.2327316 255.316886604961 264.471369803 273.69618123
60% 307.5649112 317.6173419 327.7372877 337.9247486 348.179724583102 358.502215675 368.892221865
70% 382.3342786 393.1749447 404.0746866 415.0335042 426.051397451973 437.128366455 448.264411171
80% 443.7103381 454.9482148 466.2311015 477.5589983 488.931905211574 500.349822146 511.812749145
90% 491.69309 502.9371522 514.2065326 525.5012311 536.821247861904 548.166582745 559.53723579
100% 526.282534 537.1417569 548.0009797 558.8602026 569.719425402966 580.578648253 591.437871104

PRE-TAX SYNERGIES REQUIRED TO BREAKEVEN AS % OF 2008E PROFORMA EBITDA


Share Price Paid
0.0% $69.00 $70.00 $71.00 $72.00 $73.00 $74.00 $75.00
0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
10% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
% Cash Consideration

20% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30% 0.001103185 0.003137295 0.005193902 0.007273006 0.00937460598662263 0.01149870251 0.01364529549
40% 0.044876715 0.047657707 0.050464409 0.053296822 0.0561549442184124 0.05903877717 0.06194832036
50% 0.083549976 0.086928944 0.090334693 0.093767225 0.0972265371686829 0.1007126313 0.10422550694
60% 0.117122967 0.120951006 0.124804755 0.128684215 0.132589384837434 0.13652026492 0.14047685524
70% 0.145595689 0.149723894 0.153874595 0.158047793 0.162243487224666 0.16646167801 0.17070236526
80% 0.168968141 0.173247607 0.177544212 0.181857958 0.186188844330378 0.19053687058 0.19490203699
90% 0.187240324 0.191522145 0.195813607 0.200114711 0.204425456154571 0.20874584263 0.21307587045
100% 0.200412237 0.204547508 0.20868278 0.212818051 0.216953322697245 0.22108859416 0.22522386561

Page 3

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