Accretion Dilution (Shell) - Framework
Accretion Dilution (Shell) - Framework
Companies
Acquirer Kraft
Target Kellog
Transaction Date 2/15/2013 Fiscal Year Ending December 31,
Shares Outstanding (fully diluted) Earnings Per Share LTM (1) 2013E 2014
Acquirer - Kraft 592 Acquirer - Kraft $2.70 $2.63 $2.93
Target - Kellog 362 Target - Kellog $3.30 $3.86 $4.12
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ILLUSTRATIVE MERGER CONSEQUENCES
($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)
MULTIPLE ANALYSIS
ACQUIRER Kellog Proforma
Kraft Current Offer Combined Companies
FD Shares Outstanding 592 362 362 1,034
Share Price $47.17 $59.77 $72.00 $47.17
Equity Value $27,925 $21,619 $26,042 $48,759
TEV / Revenue
LTM 2.0x 2.1x 2.5x 2.2x
2013E 2.0x 1.9x 2.2x 2.1x
2014E 1.9x 1.5x 2.1x 2.0x
TEV / EBITDA
LTM 11.1x 12.6x 14.5x 12.5x
2013E 11.5x 11.1x 12.8x 12.1x
2014E 10.6x 10.6x 12.2x 11.3x
Price / Earnings
LTM 17.5x 18.1x 21.8x 17.5x
2013E 17.9x 15.5x 18.7x 16.5x
2014E 16.1x 14.5x 17.5x 15.1x
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ILLUSTRATIVE MERGER CONSEQUENCES
($ and shares in millions, except for per share prices)
SENSITIVITY TABLES
2013E EPS ACCRETION / DILUTION
P/E of Share Price Paid 17.9x 18.1x 18.4x 18.7x 18.9x 19.2x 19.4x
Share Price Paid 2.6% $69.00 $70.00 $71.00 $72.00 $73.00 $74.00 $75.00
0% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%
10% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
% Cash Consideration
20% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30% 2.896962567 8.238537188 13.63918752 19.09891357 24.617715320871 30.1955927883 35.8325459674
40% 117.8462532 125.1491381 132.5195382 139.9574533 147.462883517551 155.035828841 162.676289264
50% 219.4022361 228.2754064 237.2189049 246.2327316 255.316886604961 264.471369803 273.69618123
60% 307.5649112 317.6173419 327.7372877 337.9247486 348.179724583102 358.502215675 368.892221865
70% 382.3342786 393.1749447 404.0746866 415.0335042 426.051397451973 437.128366455 448.264411171
80% 443.7103381 454.9482148 466.2311015 477.5589983 488.931905211574 500.349822146 511.812749145
90% 491.69309 502.9371522 514.2065326 525.5012311 536.821247861904 548.166582745 559.53723579
100% 526.282534 537.1417569 548.0009797 558.8602026 569.719425402966 580.578648253 591.437871104
20% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
30% 0.001103185 0.003137295 0.005193902 0.007273006 0.00937460598662263 0.01149870251 0.01364529549
40% 0.044876715 0.047657707 0.050464409 0.053296822 0.0561549442184124 0.05903877717 0.06194832036
50% 0.083549976 0.086928944 0.090334693 0.093767225 0.0972265371686829 0.1007126313 0.10422550694
60% 0.117122967 0.120951006 0.124804755 0.128684215 0.132589384837434 0.13652026492 0.14047685524
70% 0.145595689 0.149723894 0.153874595 0.158047793 0.162243487224666 0.16646167801 0.17070236526
80% 0.168968141 0.173247607 0.177544212 0.181857958 0.186188844330378 0.19053687058 0.19490203699
90% 0.187240324 0.191522145 0.195813607 0.200114711 0.204425456154571 0.20874584263 0.21307587045
100% 0.200412237 0.204547508 0.20868278 0.212818051 0.216953322697245 0.22108859416 0.22522386561
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