1

LOGO

Chapter 1
Getting Stared with
Probability ‘PART 2’

iugaza2010.blogspot.com
[email protected]
 1.5 Conditional Probability

P[A/B] “ Probability of A given B “

P[ AB ]
P[ A / B] 
P[ B]
Notes :
(1) P [A / B ]  P [A ]
(2) If A  B=  P [ A / B ]  0
P [AB ] P [B ]
(2) If B  A  P [ A / B ]   1
P [B ] P [B ] 3
 Quiz 1.5

Classify the call as:

Voice call (V)
Data call(D)

Observe sequence of three letters.

given
P[VVV]=P[DDD]=0.2 ,
P[VVD]=P[VDV]=P[VDD]=P[DVV]=P[DVD]=P[DDV]=0.1 ,

(a) P[Nv=2]=P[{vvd,vdv,dvv}]=0.1+0.1+0.1=0.3

(b) P[Nv>=1]=1-P[{ddd}]=1-0.2=0.8
4
 P[{vvd}.Nv  2] P[vvd] 0.1 1
((c)
c) P[{vvd} / Nv  2]    
P[ Nv  2] 0.3 0.3 3
P[{ddv}.Nv  2] 0
(d ) P[{ddv} / Nv  2]   0
P[ Nv  2] 0.3
P[ Nv  2.Nv  1] P[ Nv  2] 0.3 3
(e) P[ Nv  2 / Nv  1]    
P[ Nv  1] P[ Nv  1] 0.8 8
P[ Nv  1.Nv  2] P[ Nv  2]
( f ) P[ Nv  1 / Nv  2]   1
P[ Nv  2] P[ Nv  2]5
Roll six-sided die once . Let
Ri denote the event that the roll is i
Gj denote the event that the roll is grater than j
E denote the event that the roll is even number

(a) What is P[R3/G1] ?

1
P[ R3.G1] P[ R3] 6 1
P[ R3 / G1]    
P[G1] P[G1] 5 5
6

6
(b) What is the conditional probability that 6 is
rolled given that the roll is grater than 3 ?
R6  {6}
G3  {4,5,6}
1
P[ R6.G3] P[ R6] 6 1
P[ R 6 / G3]    
P[G3] P[G3] 3 3
6

7
(c) Given the roll is greater than 3,what is the
conditional probability that the roll is even?
G3  {4,5,6}
E  {2,4,6}
2
P[G3.E ] P[{4,6}] 6 2
P[G3 / E ]    
P[ E ] P[ E ] 3 3
6

8
 Shuffled deck of three cards:2,3 and 4 .
You deal out the three cards.
Ei denote the event that the card dealt is even numbered

(a) What is P[E2/E1] prob. The 2nd card

is even given that the 1st card is even ?
E1  {234,243,423,432}
E 2  {243,342,423,324}
2
P[ E 2.E1] P[{243,423}] 6 1
P[ E 2 / E1]    
P[ E1] P[ E1] 4 2
6 9
(b) What is conditional prob. that the first two
cards are even given that the third card is
even?
E1.E 2  {243,423}
E 3  {234,324,342,432}
P[ E1.E 2.E 3] P[ ]
P[ E1.E 2 / E 3]   0
P[ E 3] 4
6

10
 1.6 Independence

Events A and B are independent iff:

P[AB]=P[A] P[B]

P[ AB] P[ A]P[ B]
P[ A / B]    P[ A]
P[ B] P[ B]

11
Independent Vs disjoint

Disjoint: P[AB]=0

Independent: P[AB]=P[A] P[B]

12
 Is it possible for events A&B to be independent and
satisfy A=B?

P[A.B]=P[A.A]=P[A]=P[B] ………(1)

P[A] P[B]=P[A] P[A]=(P[A])^2=(P[B])^2 ……..(2)

Satisfy iff :
P[A]=1 , A=B=S
Or
P[A]=0 , A=B=Φ
13
In an experiment A,B,C and D are events with probability:

P[A]=1/4 ,,, P[B]=1/8 ,,, P[C]=5/8 ,,, P[D]=3/8

A and B are disjoint
C and D are independent
Find:

(a)
P[A Λ B]=0
P[A υ B]=P[A]+P[B]=1/4 + 1/8 =3/8
P[A Λ Bc]=P[A]=1/4
P[A υ Bc]=1-P[B]=1- 1/8 = 7/8
14
P[A]=1/4 ,,, P[B]=1/8 ,,, P[C]=5/8 ,,, P[D]=3/8
A and B are disjoint
C and D are independent
(b) Are A and B independent
P[AB]=0  Not independent

(c)
P[C Λ D]=P[C] P[D]=(5/8)(3/8)=15/64

P[C Λ Dc]=P[C]-P[CD]=(5/8)-(15-64)=25/64

P[Cc Λ Dc]= 1-P[C υ D]=1-{P[C]+P[D]-P[CD]}

=1-{5/8 + 3/8 – 15/64 } = 15/64
15
(d) Are Cc and Dc independent

P[Cc Λ Dc]= 15/64 ……… (1)

P[Cc ] P[Dc]= { 1-P[C] } { 1-P[D] }=(1- 5/8) (1- 3/8)

=15/64 ……..(2)

(1)=(2)  Independent

16
For independent Events A and B prove that:

(a) A and Bc are independent.

P[AB]=P[A]P[B] …… given

P[A Bc]=P[A]-P[AB]=P[A]-P[A]P[B]
=P[A] {1-P[B] } = P[A] P[Bc]

 A & Bc are indep.

17
(c) Ac and Bc are independent.
P[AB]=P[A]P[B] …… given

P[Ac Bc]= P[S]-P[A υ B]

= 1-{ P[A]+P[B]- P[A]P[B] }
=1-P[A] –P[B]+ P[A]P[B]
= 1-P[A] - P[B] (1- P[A])
={ 1-P[A] } ( 1-P[B] )
=P[Ac] P[Bc]

 A & B are indep.

c c 18
Use Ven diagram to illustrate 3 events A,B and C that are
independent.

(1) P[AB].P[AC].P[BC]=P[ABC]
(2) P[AB]=P[A]P[B]

(3) P[AC]=P[A]P[C]

(4) P[BC]=P[B]P[C]

Pair wise
independent 19
Use Ven diagram to illustrate 3 events A,B and C that are
pair wise independent but not independent .

(1) P[AB].P[AC].P[BC] not equal to P[ABC]

(2) P[AB]=P[A]P[B]

(3) P[AC]=P[A]P[C]

(4) P[BC]=P[B]P[C]

20
 1.7 Tree Diagram

In an experiment flip a coin twice, the coin comes up head

with probability ¼ ,
Hi and Ti denote the flip of number i
(a) What is the probability of P[H1/H2]
{{{{ first flip is head given that second flip is head }}}}
1
P[ H1H 2] 16 1
P[ H 1 | H 2]   
P[ H 2] 1 3 4

16 16
(b) What is the probability of first flip
is head and second is tail

P[ H1T 2]  3 / 16
21
A basketball team, a player goes to the line for two free throws.
The probability That the first throw is good is ½
If the first is good then the probability that the second is good is ¾ .
However if the first is miss then the second is good with prob ¼
If the player makes exactly one good throw ,the games goes into overtime.
What is the prob. that the game goes into overtime?

P[ g1m2]  P[m1g 2]  1/ 8  1/ 8  1/ 4
22
23
You have two biased(not fair) coin A&B
Coin A comes head with probability ¼ .
Coin B comes head with probability ¾ .
You chose a coin randomly and you flip it.
If the flip is head you guess that the flipped coin is B , otherwise you
guess that the flipped coin is A.

What is the P[C] ? C:event that your guess is correct

P[C]  P[ AT ]  P[BH ]  3 / 8  3 / 8  3 / 4 24
For a general population, 1 in 5000 carries the HIV
A test for presence of HIV yields either a positive(+) or negative(-)

Suppose the test gives correct answer 99% actual

H  carry HIV
Hc  not carry HIV
1
P[ H ]   0.0002 Test results
5000 +  carry
-  not carry
P[ H ]  1  0.002  0.9998
c

P[ / H ]  P[ / H ]  %error  1  0.99  0.01

c

P[.H ]
P[ / H ]   P[.H ]  0.002* 0.01  2 *106
P[ H ]
+ -
P[ H .]  0.0002  2 *106 H 1.98e-4 2e-6 0.0002

4 Hc 0.9998
 1.98 *10 1
25
 P[ .H c
]
P[ / H ] 
c

P[ H c ]
P[.H c ]  P[ / H c ] * P[ H c ]  (0.01) * (0.9998)  9.998*103

P[ H . ] 1.98e  4
P[ H /  ]    0.019419
P[ ] 0.010196

+ -
H 1.98e-4 2e-6 0.002
Hc 9.998e-3 0.989802 0.9998

0.010196 0.989804 1
26
You have two biased(not fair) coin A&B
Coin A comes head with probability ¼ .
Coin B comes head with probability ¾ .
You chose a coin randomly and you flip it.
What is the P[H1H2] ?

P[ H 1H 2]  P[ AH 1H 2]  P[ BH 1H 2] 
3 / 32  3 / 32  6 / 32 27
 (b) Are H1 and H2 independent
P[ H 1]  P[ AH 1H 2]  P[ AH 1T 2]  P[ BH 1H 2]  P[ BH 1T 2]
P[ H 2]  ......
P[ H 1]P[ H 2]  .....
P[ H 1]P[ H 2]  P[ H 1H 2]  dependent.

28
29
P[ H 3]  P[T 1H 2 H 3]  P[T 1T 2 H 3H 4]  P[T 1T 2 H 3T 4]
 1 / 8  1 / 16  1 / 16  1 / 4
P[ D]  P[T1H 2T 3T 4]  P[T1T 2H 3T 4]  P[T1T 2T 3]  1/ 4
P[ H1.D] P[ ]
P[ H1 / D]   0
P[ D] P[ D]
30
P[C1]  P
P[C 2]  (1  P ) P
P[C 3]  (1  p ) 2 P
P[Cn ]  (1  p ) n 1 P

31
try to solve : 1.7.6,1.7.9

32
 LOGO

iugaza2010.blogspot.com
[email protected] 33