1

LOGO

Chapter 1
Getting Stared with
Probability ‘PART 1’

iugaza2010.blogspot.com
[email protected]
3
 1.1 Set Theory

Set : a collection of things

Elements: are things that

make up the set

Set A contain elements x,y,z

4
 1.1 Set Theory
 Some definitions:
Inclusion : x  A  x is an element in set A
Subset : A  B
Equality : A  B  A  B & B  A
Universal Set (S)
Null Set ( ) has no elements
Ven diagram : used to display realtionships among sets,
the lage rectangle is the universal set S

5
 1.1 Set Theory
Operations in Set Algebra

A or B
x  A  B iff x  A or x  B

x  A  B iff x  A and x  B A and B

x  A iff x  A
c

Ac  S  A
6
 1.1 Set Theory
Operations in Set Algebra

x  A  B iff x  A & x  B
A - B  A  Bc

A and B called disjoint iff A  B  

7
 1.1 Set Theory

‫متنافية‬
A collectionof sets A1,....... , An is mutually exclusive iff
Ai  Aj  

A collectionof sets A1,..., An is collectively exhaustive iff

A1  A2  A3.......  S

8
 1.1 Set Theory

c c
( A  B)  A  B c

9
 Quiz 1.1

A slice of pizza sold by Gerlanda’s Pizza is either

Regular Pizza(R) or Tuscan(T)
Each slice may have mushrooms(M) or onions(O)
As described by the Venn diagram.

Shade the region of Venn diagram for the following sets:

10
(a) R (d) R M

11
 c
(f) T - M

T M c c

c c
T M

12
 From Quiz1.1 ask the following questions:

(a) Are T and M mutually exclusive?

No, T  M  

(b) Are R,T and M collectively exhaustive ?

Yes, R  T  M  S
(d) Does Gerlands make T pizzas with M and O?
No, T & O are Mutually exclusive
13
(e) Does Gerlands make R pizzas that have neither M
nor O ?

Yes, as shown in Venn diagram

14
From Quiz1.1 write Gerlanda’s menu in words:

-Regular with mushrooms and onions

-Tuscan with mushrooms
-Tuscan without mushrooms
-………

15
 1.2 Applying Set Theory to Probability
‫فضاء العينة‬

Sample space of an experiment is the:

- finest grain (all possible outcomes identified separately)
- mutually exclusive and
- collectively exhaustive set.

e.g.: Roll six-sided die one time

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
‫الحدث‬

Subset of sample space

e.g.: event E1={Roll 4 or higher}={4,5,6}
Note: event that contains all sample space is
called event space 16
 1.2 Applying Set Theory to Probability
‫فضاء العينة‬

Sample space of an experiment is the:

- finest grain (all possible outcomes identified separately)
- mutually exclusive and
- collectively exhaustive set.

e.g.: Roll six-sided die one time

S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
‫الحدث‬

Subset of sample space

e.g.: event E1={Roll 4 or higher}={4,5,6}
Note: event that contains all sample space is
called event space 17
 Quiz 1.2

Letter may be: voice call(v) or data call(d)

Observation a sequence of three letters .
Write the elements of the following sets.
(1) A1=First call is a voice call
A1={vvv,vvd,vdv,vdd}
(3) A3=All call are the same
A3={vvv,ddd} S
(5) B1=First call is data call
B1={dvv,dvd,ddv,ddd}

A1&B1 are Mutually exclusive and

collectively exhaustive 18
(7) Voice and data alternate
A1={vdv,dvd}

Observation :
only the type(voice or data) 3 times 2 8
3

19
Experiment of monitoring a fax transmission
Speed: low(l),medium(m),high(h)
Length: short faxes 2p(t),long faxes 4p(f)

(a) What is the sample space of the experiment ?

S.S  {lt, lf , mt , mf , ht, hf }
(b) Event A1={medium speed fax}
A1  {mt , mf }
(c) Event A2={short fax 2p.}
A2  {lt, mt , ht} 20
 Speed Length
(L,M,H) (Short,Long)

2*3  6

21
(d) Event A3= High speed h or low speed ?
A3  {ht, hf , lt, lf }

(e) Are A1,A2 and A3 Mutually exclusive

No, A1 A2  {mt}  
(f) Are A1,A2 and A3 collectively exhaustive
Yes, A1 A2  A3  {S}
22
 Three machines X,Y and Z are produced integrated
circuits :acceptable(a),fails(f)

Observe a sequence of three test results from the three

machines ?

(a) Sample space

S.S  {aaa, aaf , afa, aff , faa, faf , fffa, fff }

23
1.3,1.4 Probability Axioms

A1  A2  

24
 1
oEqually likely Outcomes: P[ Si] 
n
e.g. Roll six-sided die in which all faces are equally likely
E1={roll 4 or higher}={4,5,6}
P[E1]=3/6=1/2

Equally likely=unbiased=fair
25
 Quiz 1.3

Test grades (T) 0-100

Score 90-100 (A) , 80-89 (B) , 70-79 (c) , 60-69 (D) ,less 60 (F)
All scores between 51-100 (S.S=50 elements)
All scores are equally likely

Find the following probability :

1 21
(a) P[{S 79}]  (d ) P[T  80]   0.42
50 50
11 39
(c) P[ A]  (e) P[T  90]   0.78
50 50
26
 Quiz 1.3

31
( f ) P[ C grade or better ]  ( 70  100)   0.62
50

41
( g ) P[ pass]  (60  100)   0.82
50

27
 Quiz 1.4

Classify the call as:

Long(L) or Brief(B) S.S  {LV , LD, BV , BD}
Voice(V) or Data(D)

P[V]=0.7 , P[L]=0.6 , P[VL]=0.35

Find the following probabilities:

P[V]=P[LV]+P[VB] P[VB]=0.7-0.35=0.35
P[L]=P[LV]+P[LD] P[LD]=0.6-0.35=0.25
V D
P[LV]+P[LD]+P[BV]+P[BD]=P[S]=1 L 0.35 0.25 0.6
 P[BD]=1-(0.25+0.35+0.35)=0.5
B 0.35 0.5 0.4
0.7 0.3 1
28
 V D
L 0.35 0.25 0.6
B 0.35 0.5 0.4
(1) P[DL]  0.25 0.7 0.3 1

(2) P[ D  L]  P[ D]  P[ L]  P[ D  L]
 0.3  0.6  0.25  0.65
(6) P[LB]  0
29
Computer program are classified by:
Length of the code & Execution time

More than 150 lines → Big (B)

Less than or equal 150 lines → Little(L)

program run in less than 0.1 sec → Fast(F)

program required at least 0.1 sec → Slow(W)

P[LF]=0.5 , P[BF]=0.2 , P[BW]=0.2

What is the Sample Space(S.S) ?

B L
S.S  {BF , BW , LF , LW } F 0.2 0.5
W 0.2 0.1 30
Calculate:

(a) P[W ]  0.2  0.1  0.3 F

B
0.2
L
0.5 0.7
W 0.2 0.1 0.3

(b) P[B]  0.2  0.2  0.4 0.4 0.6

(c) P[W  B]  P[W ]  P[ B]  P[W  B]  0.3  0.4  0.2  0.5

S.S  {BF , BW , LF , LW }

31
Roll six-sided die once ,observe the number of dots.

What is the sample space?

S.S  {1,2,3,4,5,6}

What is the probability of each sample outcome ?

1
P[ Si] 
6
What is the probability of E, the event that the roll is even ?
E  {2,4,6}
1 1 1 1
P[ E ]  P[{2}]  P[{4}]  P[{6}]    
6 6 6 2 32
Quiz of 10 point
Score of students between 0  10

 What is the probability of A, which requires the

student to get a score of 9 or more ?
A  {9,10}
1 1 2
P[ A]  P[{9}]  P[{10}]   
11 11 11

 What is the probability of F, which requires the student

to get a score of less than 4?
4
A  {0,1,2,3} , P[ A] 
11
33
Quiz of 10 point
Score of students between 0  10

 What is the probability of A, which requires the

student to get a score of 9 or more ?
A  {9,10}
1 1 2
P[ A]  P[{9}]  P[{10}]   
11 11 11

 What is the probability of F, which requires the student

to get a score of less than 4?
4
A  {0,1,2,3} , P[ A] 
11
34
35
(a) Find P[Ho] ?
P[Ho]=0.1+0.4=0.5 Ho H1 H2
L 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4
(b) Find P[B] ?
B 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.6
P[B]=0.4+0.1+0.1=0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 1
(c) Find P[L Ụ H2 ] ?
=P[L]+P[H2]-P[L.H2]=0.4+0.3-0.2=0.5

36
 LOGO

iugaza2010.blogspot.com
37
[email protected]