Probability

Probability defines the likelihood of

occurrence of an event. There are many real-
life situations in which we may have to predict
the outcome of an event. We may be sure or
not sure of the results of an event. In such
cases, we say that there is a probability of this
event to occur or not occur. Probability
generally has great applications in games, in
business to make predictions, and also it has
extensive applications in this new area of
artificial intelligence.
The probability of an event can be calculated
by the probability formula by simply dividing
the favourable number of outcomes by the
total number of possible outcomes. The value
of the probability of an event happening can
lie between 0 and 1 because the favourable
number of outcomes can never be more than
the total number of outcomes. Also, the
favorable number of outcomes cannot be
negative. Let us discuss the basics of
probability in detail in the following sections.
What is Probability?
 Probability can be defined as the
ratio of the number of favorable
outcomes to the total number of
outcomes of an event. For an
experiment having 'n' number of
outcomes, the number of
favorable outcomes can be
denoted by x. The formula to
calculate the probability of an
event is as follows.
Probability(Event) = Favorable
Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n
Probability is used to predict the
outcomes for the tossing of coins,
rolling of dice, or drawing a card from a
pack of playing cards. The probability
is classified into two types:
 Theoretical probability
 Experimental probability
Terminology of Probability
Theory
The following terms in probability theorey help
in a better understanding of the concepts of
probability.
Experiment: A trial or an operation conducted
to produce an outcome is called an
experiment.
Sample Space: All the possible outcomes of
an experiment together constitute a sample
space. For example, the sample space of
tossing a coin is {head, tail}.
Favorable Outcome: An event that has
produced the desired result or expected event
is called a favorable outcome. For example,
when we roll two dice, the possible/favorable
outcomes of getting the sum of numbers on
the two dice as 4 are (1,3), (2,2), and (3,1).
Trial: A trial denotes doing a random
experiment.
Random Experiment: An experiment that
has a well-defined set of outcomes is called
a random experiment. For example, when we
toss a coin, we know that we would get ahead
or tail, but we are not sure which one will
appear.
Event: The total number of outcomes of a
random experiment is called an event.
Equally Likely Events: Events that have the
same chances or probability of occurring are
called equally likely events. The outcome of
one event is independent of the other. For
example, when we toss a coin, there are
equal chances of getting a head or a tail.
Exhaustive Events: When the set of all
outcomes of an event is equal to the sample
space, we call it an exhaustive event.
Mutually Exclusive Events: Events that
cannot happen simultaneously are
called mutually exclusive events. For
example, the climate can be either hot or cold.
We cannot experience the same weather
simultaneously.
Events in Probability
In probability theory, an event is a set of
outcomes of an experiment or a subset of
the sample space. If P(E) represents the
probability of an event E, then, we have,
 P(E) = 0 if and only if E is an impossible
event.
 P(E) = 1 if and only if E is a certain event.
 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1.
Suppose, we are given two events, "A"
and "B", then the probability of event A,
P(A) > P(B) if and only if event "A" is more
likely to occur than the event "B". Sample
space(S) is the set of all of the possible
outcomes of an experiment and n(S)
represents the number of outcomes in the
sample space.
P(E) = n(E)/n(S)
P(E’) = (n(S) - n(E))/n(S) = 1 - (n(E)/n(S))
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can also conclude that,
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
Probability Formula
The probability equation defines the likelihood of the happening
of an event. It is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total
favorable outcomes. The probability formula can be expressed
as,

i.e., P(A) = n(A)/n(S)

where,
 P(A) is the probability of an event 'B'.
 n(A) is the number of favorable outcomes of an event
'B'.
 n(S) is the total number of events occurring in a sample
space.

Different Probability Formulas

Probability formula with addition rule: Whenever an event is
the union of two other events, say A and B, then

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)

Probability formula with the complementary rule: Whenever

an event is the complement of another event, specifically, if A is
an event, then P(not A) = 1 - P(A) or P(A') = 1 - P(A).
P(A) + P(A′) = 1.
Probability formula with the conditional rule: When event A is
already known to have occurred, the probability of event B is
known as conditional probability and is given by:
P(B∣A) = P(A∩B)/P(A)
Probability formula with multiplication rule: Whenever an
event is the intersection of two other events, that is, events A
and B need to occur simultaneously. Then
 P(A ∩ B) = P(A)⋅P(B) (in case of independent events)

 P(A∩B) = P(A)⋅P(B∣A) (in case of dependent events)

Calculating Probability
In an experiment, the probability of an event is the
possibility of that event occurring. The probability of any
event is a value between (and including) "0" and "1".
Follow the steps below for calculating probability of an
event A:
 Step 1: Find the sample space of the experiment
and count the elements. Denote it by n(S).
 Step 2: Find the number of favorable outcomes and
denote it by n(A).
 Step 3: To find probability, divide n(A) by n(S). i.e.,
P(A) = n(A)/n(S).
Here are some examples that well describe the process
of finding probability.
Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less
than 5 when a dice is rolled by using the probability
formula.
Solution
To find:
Probability of getting a number less than 5
Given: Sample space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Therefore, n(S) = 6
Let A be the event of getting a number less than 5. Then
A = {1,2,3,4}
So, n(A) = 4
Using the probability equation,
P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6
m = 2/3
Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5
is 2/3.
Probability Tree Diagram
A tree diagram in probability is a visual
representation that helps in finding the
possible outcomes or the probability of
any event occurring or not occurring. The
tree diagram for the toss of a coin given
below helps in understanding the possible
outcomes when a coin is tossed. Each
branch of the tree is associated with the
respective probability (just like how 0.5 is
written on each brack in the figure below).
Remember that the sum of probabilities of
all branches that start from the same point
is always 1 (here, 0.5 + 0.5 = 1).
Types of Probability
There can be different perspectives or types of
probabilities based on the nature of the outcome or the
approach followed while finding probability of an event
happening. The four types of probabilities are,
 Classical Probability
 Empirical Probability
 Subjective Probability
 Axiomatic Probability

Classical Probability
Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or
"theoretical probability", states that in an experiment
where there are B equally likely outcomes, and event X
has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of
X is A/B, or P(X) = A/B. For example, when a fair die is
rolled, there are six possible outcomes that are equally
likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling
each number on the die.

Empirical Probability
The empirical probability or the experimental perspective
evaluates probability through thought experiments. For
example, if a weighted die is rolled, such that we don't
know which side has the weight, then we can get an
idea for the probability of each outcome by rolling the die
number of times and calculating the proportion of times
the die gives that outcome and thus find the probability
of that outcome.

Subjective Probability
Subjective probability considers an individual's own
belief of an event occurring. For example, the probability
of a particular team winning a football match on a fan's
opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and
feeling and not on a formal mathematical calculation.

Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by
Kolmogorov are applied to all the types. The chances of
occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be
quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,
 The smallest possible probability is zero,

and the largest is one.

 An event that is certain has a probability

equal to one.
 Any two mutually exclusive events cannot

occur simultaneously, while the union of

events says only one of them can occur.
Coin Toss Probability
Let us now look into the probability of tossing a
coin. Quite often in games like cricket, for making
a decision as to who would bowl or bat first, we
sometimes use the tossing of a coin and decide
based on the outcome of the toss. Let us check
how we can use the concept of probability in the
tossing of a single coin. Further, we shall also look
into the tossing of two and three coins.

Tossing a Coin
A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and
a tail. The concept of probability which is the ratio of
favorable outcomes to the total number of outcomes can
be used in finding probability of getting the head and the
probability of getting a tail.
Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space
= {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail
 P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2
 P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2

Tossing Two Coins

In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of
four (= 22) outcomes. The probability formula can be
used to find the probability of two heads, one head, no
head, and a similar probability can be calculated for the
number of tails. The probability calculations for the two
heads are as follows.
Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H),
(H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}
  P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two
heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4
 P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one
head/Total Outcomes = 2/4 = 1/2
 P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two
heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4

Tossing Three Coins

The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins
simultaneously is equal to 23 = 8. For these outcomes,
we can find the probability of getting one head, two
heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability
can also be calculated for the number of tails.
Total number of outcomes = 23 = 8 Sample Space = {(H,
H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T, H), (T, H, H), (T, T, H), (T, H, T),
(H, T, T), (T, T, T)}
 P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total
Outcomes = 1/8
 P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one
head/Total Outcomes = 3/8
 P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads
/Total Outcomes = 3/8
 P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three
heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8
Dice Roll Probability
Many games use dice to decide the moves of players
across the games. A dice has six possible outcomes
and the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and can
be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some
games also use two dice, and there are numerous
probabilities that can be calculated for outcomes using
two dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their
probabilities for one dice and two dice respectively.
Rolling One Dice
The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the
sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall compute the
following few probabilities to help in better understanding the
concept of probability on rolling one dice.
 P(Even Number) = Number of even number

outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2

 P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number
outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2
 P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number
outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 = 1/2

Rolling Two Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 62 = 36.
The following image shows the sample space of 36 outcomes
on rolling two dice.

Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice.

The probabilities are as follows.
 Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 =
1/6
 Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice =
11/36
 Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6
As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities.
When we roll two dice, there are 36 (= 62) possibilities. When
we roll 3 dice we get 216 (= 63) possibilities. So a general
formula to represent the number of outcomes on rolling 'n' dice
is 6n.
Probability of Drawing Cards
A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs,
diamonds, hearts, and spades. Each of the clubs, diamonds,
hearts, and spades have 13 cards each, which sum up to 52.
Now let us discuss the probability of drawing cards from a pack.
The symbols on the cards are shown below. Spades and clubs
are black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red cards.

The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack,

queen, king. In these, the jack, the queen, and the king are
called face cards. We can understand the card probability from
the following examples.
 The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card)
= 26/52 = 1/2
 The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) =
13/52 = 1/4
 The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) =
12/52 = 3/13
 The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) =
4/52 = 1/13
 The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4
Red) = 2/52 = 1/26
Probability Theorems
The following theorems of probability are helpful to understand
the applications of probability and also perform the numerous
calculations involving probability.
Theorem 1: The sum of the probability of happening of an
event and not happening of an event is equal to 1. P(A) + P(A')
= 1.
Theorem 2: The probability of an impossible event or the
probability of an event not happening is always equal to 0. P(ϕ)
= 0.
Theorem 3: The probability of a sure event is always equal to
1. P(A) = 1
Theorem 4: The probability of happening of any event always
lies between 0 and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1
Theorem 5: If there are two events A and B, we can apply the
formula of the union of two sets and we can derive the formula
for the probability of happening of event A or event B as
follows.
P(A∪B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A∩B)
Also for two mutually exclusive events A and B, we have P( A U
B) = P(A) + P(B)

Bayes' Theorem on Conditional Probability

Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event based on
the condition of occurrence of other events. It is also
called conditional probability. It helps in calculating the
probability of happening of one event based on the condition of
happening of another event.
For example, let us assume that there are three bags with each
bag containing some blue, green, and yellow balls. What is the
probability of picking a yellow ball from the third bag? Since
there are blue and green colored balls also, we can arrive at
the probability based on these conditions also. Such a
probability is called conditional probability.
The formula for Bayes' theorem is P(A|B)=P(B|
A)⋅P(A)P(B)P(A|B)=P(B|A)·P(A)P(B)
where, P(A|B)P(A|B) denotes how often event A happens on a
condition that B happens.
where, P(B|A)P(B|A) denotes how often event B happens on a
condition that A happens.
P(A)P(A) the likelihood of occurrence of event A.
P(B)P(B) the likelihood of occurrence of event B.

Law of Total Probability

If there are n number of events in an experiment, then the sum
of the probabilities of those n events is always equal to 1.
P(A1) + P(A2) + P(A3) + … + P(An) = 1
Important Notes on Probability:
 Probability is a measure of how likely an event is
to happen.
 Probability is represented as a fraction and
always lies between 0 and 1.
 An event can be defined as a subset of sample
space.
 The sample of throwing a coin is {head, tail} and
the sample space of throwing dice is {1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6}.
 A random experiment cannot predict the exact
outcomes but only some probable outcomes.
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