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Week 3 Assignment solution

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77 views

Week 3 Assignment solution

Uploaded by

Goutham vignesh J
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Week 3 Assignment solution

Problem Statement for Questions 1-10

You are the owner of a grocery delivery firm. You are interested in formulating a policy to
offer gifts to delayed deliveries and looking at the data. Historically the delivery time data has
followed normal distribution with a mean (μ) = 8-min average delivery
time and standard deviation (SD or σ) =2-min. Answer the questions below, using this
information. (Hint Use the following property of normal distribution, z=-2 to +2 for 95%;
z=-1 to +1 for 68% and z=-3 to +3 for 99% area. That is, 68% area will lie within ±1 𝑆𝐷,
95% area will lie within ± 2 𝑆𝐷, 99% area will lie within ± 3 𝑆𝐷.

Q1. What is the probability of delivery time 4-12 mins

a. 80%-90%
b. 90%-100% (Ans)
c. 70%-80%
d. 30%-40%

Hint: The delivery time lies between ± 2 S.D around the mean (8-2*2=4 mins and 8+2*2=12
mins). Therefore, around 95% of the area is covered. In other words 95% probability of
observing a delivery time between 4-12 mins

Q2. What is the probability of delivery time 6-10 mins

a. 80%-90%
b. 90%-100%
c. 70%-80%
d. 60%-70% (Ans)
Solution: The delivery time lies between ± 1 S.D around the mean (8-1*2=6 mins and
8+2*1=10 mins). Therefore, around 68% of the area is covered. In other words 68% probability
of observing a delivery time between 6-10 mins

Q3. What is the probability of delivery time 2-14 mins


a. 80%-90%
b. 90%-100% (ANS)
c. 70%-80%
d. 60%-70%
Solution: The delivery time lies between ± 3 S.D around the mean (8-2*3=2 mins and
8+2*3=14 mins). Therefore, around 99% of the area is covered. In other words 99% probability
of observing a delivery time between 2-14 mins

Q4. What is the probability of delivery time of more than 8-mins

a. 85%-95%
b. 45%-55% (ANS)
c. 75%-85%
d. 65%-75%
Solution: Mean of the delivery time is 8-mins. Assuming normal distribution, 50% of
observations lie above and 50% lie below this point. In other words 50% probability of
observing a delivery of more than 8-mins

Q5. What is the probability of delivery time of less than 8-mins

a. 15%-25%
b. 45%-55% (ANS)
c. 25%-35%
d. 35%-45%
Solution: Mean of the delivery time is 8-mins. Assuming normal distribution, 50% of
observations lie above and 50% lie below this point. In other words 50% probability of
observing a delivery of less than 8-mins

Q6. What is the probability of delivery time of 6-8-mins

a. 80%-90%
b. 90%-100%
c. 70%-80%
d. 30%-40% (Ans)
Solution: Recall that between 6-10 Mins, covers ± 1 S.D around the mean (i.e., 8-1*2=6 mins
and 8+2*1=10 mins). This comprises approximately 68% of the area. Therefore, by symmetry
(since 8-minute is the mean and normal distribution is symmetric around the mean), half, that
is 34%, area will lie.
Q7. What is the probability of delivery time of 8-10-mins

a. 80%-90%
b. 90%-100%
c. 70%-80%
d. 30%-40% (Ans)
Solution: Recall that between 6-10 Mins, covers ± 1 S.D around the mean (i.e., 8-1*2=6 mins
and 8+2*1=10 mins). This comprises approximately 68% of the area. Therefore, by symmetry
(since 8-minute is the mean and normal distribution is symmetric around the mean), half, that
is 34%, area will lie.

Q8. What is the probability of delivery time of 8-12-mins

a. 60%-70%
b. 50%-60%
c. 40%-50% (Ans)
d. 30%-40%
Solution: Recall that between 4-12 Mins, covers ± 2 S.D around the mean (i.e., 8-2*2=4 mins
and 8+2*2=12 mins). This comprises approximately 95% of the area. Therefore, by symmetry
(since 8-minute is the mean and normal distribution is symmetric around the mean), half, that
is 47.5%, area will lie.

Q9. What is the probability of delivery time of 2-8-mins

a. 60%-70%
b. 50%-60%
c. 40%-50% (Ans)
d. 30%-40%
Solution: Recall that between 2-14 Mins, covers ± 3 S.D around the mean (i.e., 8-2*3=2 mins
and 8+2*3=14 mins). This comprises approximately 99% of the area. Therefore, by symmetry
(since 8-minute is the mean and normal distribution is symmetric around the mean), half, that
is 49.5%, area will lie.
Q10. What is the probability of delivery time of more than 10-Mins

a. 10%-20% (Ans)
b. 20%-30%
c. 30%-40%
d. 0%-10%
Solution: Recall that between probability that delivery time is less than P1=8-mins (mean) is
50%. Also that P2= 8-10 Mins is 34%. Let P3 be the probability that delivery time is more than
10-mins. Then P1+P2+P3=1. That is, complete area. Therefore, P3= 1-0.5-0.34=0.16 or 16%.

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