processes

Article
A Techno-Economic Analysis of Off-Grid Solar PV
System: A Case Study for Punjab Province in Pakistan
Muhammad Irfan 1, * , Zhen-yu Zhao 1, *, Munir Ahmad 2 and Abdul Rehman 3
1 Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low Carbon Development, School of Economics and
Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2 School of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China; [email protected]
3 Research Center of Agricultural-Rural-Peasants, Anhui University, Hefei 230039, China;
[email protected]
* Correspondence: [email protected] (M.I.); [email protected] (Z.-y.Z.); Tel.: +86-156-1189-7375 (M.I.);
+86-10-6177-3150 (Z.-y.Z.)




Received: 21 July 2019; Accepted: 17 September 2019; Published: 7 October 2019


Abstract: Fossil fuels are the primary sources of electricity generation in Pakistan. The energy
demand and supply gap have intensified recently due to the massive population and fossil fuels are
unable to meet the gigantic energy requirement of the country. Meanwhile, they also have adverse
environmental impacts. Remote rural regions that are far away from the national grid do not have any
means to fulfill their energy needs. The off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) system has emerged to be the
best energy option to electrify these remote regions. However, the strategic problem pertaining to local
electricity generation is the absence of the area-specific generation capacity and economic feasibility
data for solar energy. To address this problem, this study aims to assess the potential and economic
viability of utilizing an off-grid solar PV system for rural electrification in the Punjab province of
Pakistan. The research results reveal that there is an excellent solar irradiance in the rural areas of
Punjab for electricity generation. In addition, suitable tilt angles have been calculated to increase
the energy output of solar PV in the respective regions. Furthermore, this study has undertaken the
economic viability for solar PV systems, and it was found that electricity generation from the solar
PV costs Pakistani rupees (PKR) 7.15 per kWh and is much cheaper than conventional electricity,
which costs PKR 20.7 per kWh. Besides, the system can reduce carbon emissions considerably.
If 100% of the unelectrified households adopt solar PV system, then 617,020 metric tons of CO2
could be mitigated annually. Based on research findings, this study has suggested essential policy
recommendations that would serve as a guideline for the government and stakeholders to maximum
deploy the off-grid solar PV rural electrification programs in Punjab as well as on a national scale.

Keywords: off-grid solar PV system; remote regions; rural electrification; economic feasibility;
CO2 mitigation

1. Introduction
Electricity is the backbone for the economic and social development of a country.
However, 1.1 billion people are living without electricity in the world [1]. Most of the population
experiencing this situation belongs to the rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia [2,3].
A large population of Pakistan is living in rural areas, and most of them do not have electricity access.
Being a developing country, Pakistan is facing social and environmental challenges. Moreover, the
ever-increasing population has raised the demand for energy in the country. The current power
demand of the country is 25,000 megawatts (MW), whereas the power supply is only 17,000 MW,
producing a gap of 8000 MW [4]. As a result, the electricity shortfall is 12 h/day in urban areas and

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Processes 2019, 7, 708 2 of 14

18 h/day in rural areas [5]. The situation is even worse in the remote rural areas of Punjab, where the
shutdown of electricity lasts for many days. It is estimated that Pakistan’s power demand can further
increase up to 40,000 MW by 2030 [6].
The current energy structure of Pakistan is dependent on fossil fuels. Thermal energy (coal, oil,
and gas) fulfills 86.5% of the country’s energy needs [7]. This massive dependence on fossil fuels
has led to severe environmental problems, including an increase in carbon emissions, erratic weather
patterns, oil uncertainty and global warming [8]. Therefore, the government is looking for alternative
and clean energy sources to mitigate these environmental problems. Pakistan has vast renewable
energy potential for electricity generation. Wind sources have the potential of 346 gigawatts (GW),
whereas, solar energy (2900 GW), hydropower (6 GW), and biomass (5 GW), respectively [9].
The provincial government of Punjab is effectively tapping renewable energy (RE) to generate
electricity. Despite sincere government’s efforts, the rural areas of the province have low electrification
due to four major reasons. First, 37% of Punjab’s population is living in rural areas and approximately
7432 villages are still un-electrified [10]. These areas are scattered far away from the national grid.
It is uneconomic and very expensive to connect these areas with the national grid. Second, the power
demand in rural areas is only 50 to 100 Watts per household, which is very low as compared to
urban areas [11]. Usually, one to two fans and a small number of electric lights are enough, as these
houses merely consist of one room. For such a minimum load, it is very expensive to provide on-grid
transmission to these villages [12]. Therefore, there is little possibility of grid-connected electricity in
the future. Meanwhile, electricity generation from diesel generators is also an uneconomical option, as
it is very costly to transport oil to these remote areas. Third, stakeholders are reluctant to invest in RE
projects due to the high initial investment, long payback periods, the remoteness of the regions, and the
lack of infrastructure [13]. Finally, the economic condition of the country is fragile and cannot support
the import of costly fossil fuels especially oil to overcome energy problems. Therefore, the government
has decided to close many ongoing RE projects which have negatively affected the deployment of RE
technologies. The Punjab province has suffered the most with this government decision, as newly
started projects have shut down completely.
The off-grid solar energy is the most viable solution for electricity generation in the remote areas
of the province, by keeping in view the factors as mentioned above [14,15]. The province has vast
solar energy potential, with more than 300 sunny days and 2 MWh/m2 annual solar irradiation [16].
The Asian Development Bank also reported that the off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) is the best energy
choice for rural regions, as it is cost-effective, easy to install and improves the socio-economic condition
of these regions [17]. Many researchers have envisioned solar PV-based off-grid electricity in the remote
areas [18,19]. Sandwell et al. [20] proposed that the off-grid solar PV is the best and sustainable option
for rural regions due to the net energy, low life-cycle cost, and environmental benefits. Mishra and
Behera [21] identified that the living standard of people has improved with the development of the
solar PV system. The solar PV system does not damage human health, mitigate carbon emissions,
and is free from noise pollution [22]. Besides, numerous other studies have shown that the off-grid
solar PV system is favorable for the environment and economically the best energy choice for rural
electrification [23–25].
Therefore, there should be strong supporting policies to achieve the ambitious goal of rural
electrification. In addition, comprehensive research is required to identify the specific regions,
assess solar energy potential and analyze the economic viability of utilizing solar PV in these regions.
For Punjab province, no such research has been conducted before. Therefore, this study aims to bridge
this research gap. Five rural regions of Punjab were selected, namely Bhakkar, Khanewal, Multan,
Bahawalnagar and Rajanpur for this purpose. The study has the following main objectives:

• To analyze the techno-economic viability of solar PV-based off-grid system for the rural regions
of Punjab.
• To electrify these regions by offering a solar PV-based off-grid system.
Processes 2019, 7, 708 3 of 14

This research is the first attempt to develop solar PV-based off-grid system for Pakistan’s Punjab
province. The policymakers can take this study as a guide to establish rural programs of solar PV
power generation and make procurement strategies which encourages unwilling stakeholders to invest
in solar PV projects.

2. Solar PV Development and Issues in Pakistan

2.1. Development of Solar PV in Rural Regions

Pakistan initiated its first solar PV project in the 1980s. However, due to technical problems,
the project failed [26]. Subsequently, the country did not develop any RE-based project until 2005.
Later, the government realized to promote the development of RE technologies for electricity generation
and established two organizations namely, Pakistan Commission of Renewable Energy Technologies
(PCRET) and the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) [27]. Currently, AEDB has planned
to set up an off-grid solar PV system in rural regions to electrify 906 houses [28]. The government has
clear intentions to enrich the socio-economic development and protect the rural environment by taking
the full advantage of solar energy framework.

2.2. Issues with Solar PV in Rural Regions of Pakistan

Nonetheless, solar PV is the best option to electrify rural regions, yet its development level is very
low in remote areas of Pakistan. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) reported
that still, 40,000 villages do not have electricity access in the country [29]. The robust coordination is
required among organizations for the successful rural electrification programs [30]. Though AEDB
and PCRET have been established for the quick deployment of RE technologies in Pakistan, however,
both organizations did not achieve the desired results.
Meanwhile, the government has failed in making effective plans and policies to uplift the progress
of solar PV system in rural areas [31]. Compared with developed countries, the cost of solar PV is
significantly high in Pakistan. The high up-front cost is another major barrier in the progress of solar
PV technology [32]. Besides, the government announced a tariff of 32% on the import of solar PV
panels during the finance bill 2014–15, which has resulted in the regress of solar PV. Consequently,
the government reversed its decision and reduced tariffs on solar PV panels. Regardless of tariffs
on solar PV panels, batteries also have tariffs with approximately 50%. Additionally, householders
did not receive any subsidy on the installation of the solar PV system, which indicates the failure of
government policies to boost the development of solar energy [33].

3. Research Methodology

3.1. Determining the Solar Energy Potential

For monitoring the PV system performance, the daily energy output can be computed by using
the following equation.
E=ArH (1)

Here, E is the energy output, A is total area of solar panel (m2 ), r is efficiency of solar panel (%),
and H is the daily average solar irradiation in a particular area.
For instance, the average solar irradiation is 5.46 kWh/m2 /day in Bhakkar region and the area
of solar panel is 1.2 m2 , while solar panel efficiency is 16%, then the daily energy output from solar
panels is expected to be 1048 kWh.

3.2. Solar Irradiation and Determining the Optimal Tilt Angle

The horizontal surface of a particular area is normally used to measure the solar irradiation.
A solar panel generates high energy output if it receives direct solar irradiation. Therefore, to increase
the efficiency of solar energy output, solar panels are usually angle-tilted [34]. Sometimes, clouds cover
Processes 2019, 7, 708 4 of 14

some part of the sky and this effect is called cloudiness [35]. The PV module does not receive the uniform
solar irradiance under this condition which in turn affect its energy yield [36]. Bonkaney et al. [37]
studied the effect of cloudiness on the performance of PV module and found out that cloudiness has a
great impact on decreasing the daily energy yield of solar PV and this effect is immediate.
However, techniques are available to improve the PV energy yield during cloudy conditions.
One such technique is the solar tracking system. A solar tracker is one of the most effective ways to
enhance solar energy output. Improving the harvesting of solar energy on cloudy days is important to
utilize solar energy to fulfill the daily energy needs of households [38]. Solar trackers change solar
PV’s angle and, in this way, increase its energy output. However, utilizing solar trackers require huge
costs [39]. Thus, these are rarely used in remote rural areas. On the other hand, manually changing
the tilt angle of solar panels is more convenient than installing solar trackers [40]. Several techniques
have been utilized to calculate the precise title angle of solar panels for exploiting maximum solar
irradiance [41–43].
In this paper, a direct beam has been obtained by a tilted horizontal surface, where some
irradiations are absorbed, and some diffused, while some show they are off the ground. Thus, on a
T
tilted surface E , the global horizontal irradiance is defined as:
G

T T T T
E = E +E +E (2)
G B D R

T T
In this equation, the direct beam is denoted by E , diffused irradiation by E , while solar
B D
T
energy’s reflected rays on a tilted surface are denoted by E . Suppose, HB is the ratio for the
R
average daily direct beam on a tilted surface and the average daily direct beam on a horizontal surface,
T
then E can be calculated as:
B
T
E = E B HB (3)
B
Here HB is a geometric parameter. Therefore, the value depends on horizontal tilt, latitude,
declination angle and surface azimuth. To compute HB , the Liu and Jordan model [44] has been
utilized, as follows.

cos(L − T )·cos Gss ·sin ish + ish ·sin (L − T ) ·sin Gss

HB = (4)
cos L·cosGss ·sinish + ish ·sinL Gss

Here, L is the latitude, T is the tilt angle, and Gss and ish are the declining angles and sunshine
hours, respectively. Assume an isotropic distribution of diffused radiation for precision. Thus, the
diffused region on the horizontal tilt angle λ and horizontal surface are:

T (cos(λ) + 1)
E = HB (5)
D 2

Here, the range of ω differs from 0.1 to 0.9 [45]. Therefore, the reflected beam can be computed
as follows:
T (−cos(λ) + 1)
E = ω(EB +ED ) (6)
R 2
Processes 2019, 7, 708 5 of 14

3.3. The Economic Viability of Solar PV System

The following sub-sections assess and analyze the economic viability of solar PV-based off-grid
rural power system.

3.3.1. The Size and Battery Storage of Solar PV System

The solar PV module, battery storage, DC-AC inverter, and maximum power point tracking
(MPPT) system controller are the main parts of a solar PV system. Solar energy received by solar
panels is transfer to the system controller. This energy is then converted into DC. In the next step,
DC transmits it to the DC-AC inverter. The energy generation capacity of the solar PV system normally
depends on the solar irradiation received in a specific area. In addition, other criteria should also be
considered, such as the optimal tilt and efficiency of solar panels [46]. It is important to calculate the
losses incurred during the DC-AC conversion. There are different models to forecast solar energy
output on a tilted solar PV. The potential of electricity generation by solar PV and Ipv (kWh) is calculated
using the following equation [47].
Ipv = Apv ·Epv ·It ·PR (7)

In this equation, the panel area is denoted by Apv , panel efficiency by Epv , annual solar irradiance
received on a tilted solar panel by It and PR is the performance ratio accounting for the losses incurred.
Meanwhile, Epv is calculated as [48]:

ST
Epv = Er [λr {Ta − Tr + (Tn − Ta.n ) }] (8)
SN

Here, Er is the solar panels’ efficiency, λr is the solar panels’ temperature, Ta is the ambient
temperature, Tr is the solar panels’ referenced temperature, Tn and Ta.n are the nominal operating
temperature and ambient nominal operating temperature of a solar PV cell respectively. Whereas, ST
is the solar radiation and SN is the solar radiation for the nominal operating temperature of the solar
panel cell test.
The critical task in designing any solar PV system is to estimate the approximate electricity
consumption needs of residents. It is necessary to calculate the electricity consumption per household
by compiling several appliances, their watt ratings, and then summing up by multiplying the number
of hours these appliances have been used with watts rating. The estimated electricity consumption
of one household is 498 Wh in rural Punjab, consisting of one ceiling fan, two mobile charging slots,
three LED lights, and one pedestal fan (Table 1).

Table 1. Estimated electricity consumption per rural household.

Appliance Number in Use Working Hours Watts Rating Total Load (Wh)
LED Lights 3 6 12 216
Charging slots 2 3 5 30
Ceiling fan 1 14 12 168
Pedestal fan 1 7 12 84
Total Wh 498

The total electricity produced at the front end of solar PV and the total electricity demanded is
shown by:
365 
X 
Difference of electricity = Ppvi − Pdi (9)
i=1

Here, the day of the year is denoted by i, total electricity produced, and the total electricity
demanded are denoted by Ppvi and Pdi respectively. Though Equation (9), being parsimonious,
apparently does not demonstrate the seasonality considered while estimating the electricity demand,
Processes 2019, 7, 708 6 of 14

however, the seasonal feature has been accounted for while estimating the electricity demand reported
in Table 1.
Solar energy cannot be utilized during nighttime. Therefore, energy storage technology is needed
to overcome this problem and ensure the non-stop supply of electricity to rural dwellers. Rural Punjab
is mostly off-grid. Thus, battery storage is required at an extra cost. The battery storage technique is
utilized to store solar energy for later use when there is no sunshine i.e., during the night time or bad
weather. If electricity generation is higher than demanded electricity, then there is an electricity excess
i.e., Ppvi > Pdi and this excessive electricity can be saved in the battery. While, if generated electricity
is less than demanded electricity, then there is an electricity shortage i.e., Pdi > Ppvi and the solar PV
system is inadequate to fulfill the electricity load. The electricity required to be saved in a battery,
annually, Pb , is therefore given by:
X X 
Pb = ES − ED ·eb (10)

Here, excessive electricity is demoted by ES, the electricity deficit by ED, while the efficiency of
the battery by eb . Meanwhile, the daily storage capacity of the battery, Db is computed as:

Pb
Db = (11)
365
In fact, the calculations only involve the net values of the energy surplus and energy deficit.
Further, the supply and demand on an hourly basis would give rich results. However, the current
study has used the data on the supply and demand for electricity on an average basis. Therefore, the
results obtained based on averages are reasonably explanatory.

3.3.2. Levelized Cost of Electricity

The levelized cost of electricity (LCE) is a commonly used metric to compare the electricity cost of
different sources. This paper compared the cost of electricity produced by the conventional grid and
solar PV to analyze the cost-effectiveness of both technologies. To compare alternative technologies,
the estimated levelized cost of electricity/kWh is computed by the following formula [49]:
Pn Ic +Mc +Fc
k =1 (1+d)c
LCE = Pn Ea
(12)
k =1 (1+d)c

Here, c stands for cost, the investment cost is denoted by Ic , the maintenance cost by Mc , the fuel
cost by Fc , the year by k, the amount of electricity produced in kWh by Ea , the discounted rate by d and
the operational lifespan of technology by n.

3.4. Emission Mitigation of Solar PV System

A solar PV system produces clean energy from sunlight and in turn, helps in minimizing greenhouse
gas emissions and reduces the reliance on diesel generators [50]. In off-grid areas, diesel generators are
commonly used, which possesses high carbon intensity and severely affects human health. On the
contrary, solar PV generates very little or no carbon emissions [51,52]. An elevated level of carbon
emissions from unhealthy human activities, such as utilizing thermal energy for energy generation
has challenged environmental sustainability [53,54]. Therefore, if replaced with diesel generators,
solar PV can substantially mitigate carbon emissions. The amount of mitigated carbon emissions Ds is
computed by the following formula, depending on the amount of diesel fuel saved by utilizing solar
PV. Therefore, Ds is given by [55]:
Ds = Ppvi X Fr (13)
Processes 2019, 7, 708 7 of 14

Here, Fr is the fuel needed to generate 1 kWh of electricity using a diesel generator. The decrease
in carbon emissions is measured in kilogram, while the carbon emission saved by using solar PV is
denoted by CEMs and calculated by the following equation.
 
CEMs = Ppvi Cd − Cpv (14)

Here, Cd is the carbon equivalent in kilogram emitted to produce 1 kWh of electricity by using
diesel generator, while
Processes 2019, 7, Cpv is
x FOR PEER the carbon equivalent in kg emitted to produce 1 kWh of 7electricity
REVIEW of 14 by
using solar PV.
to produce solar PV-based electricity throughout the year. The research results reveal that the
maximum annual solar irradiation was received by Khanewal region (5.50 kWh/m2). The Bhakkar
4. Results and Discussion
region received 5.46 kWh/m2 annual solar irradiation, followed by the Multan region (5.43 kWh/m2).
Whereas,
The NASAthe Rajanpurwas
database and Bahawalnagar regions receive
accessed to determine annual
solar solar irradiation
irradiance in the of 5.41 and
remote 5.37 regions
rural
kWh/m 2, respectively (Table 2). Figure 1 shows the average values of annual solar irradiation in these
of Punjab [56]. The most crucial step before utilizing a solar PV system is the identification of
five regions.
solar energy potential in a particular area [57]. The solar irradiance data of the selected regions
have been presented
4.1. Analyzing the in Tableof2.Solar
Potential It is evident from Table 2 that there is enough solar irradiance in
Energy
all these regions to produce solar PV-based electricity throughout the year. The research results
Besides the average solar irradiation values, the average peak solar hours were also computed
reveal that the regions.
for these maximum annual
The total solarofirradiation
potential was
utilizing solar PV received by Khanewal
in these selected regions hasregion kWh/m2 ).
(5.50 in
been shown
The Bhakkar 2
Table 3.region received
The Khanewal and5.46 kWh/m
Bhakkar regionsannual solar irradiation,
have average followed
solar irradiation by the2 and
of 5.50 kWh/m Multan
5.46 region
kWh/m22).per
(5.43 kWh/m Whereas,
day, which the
canRajanpur and Bahawalnagar
generate annual energy output ofregions receiveand
1507 kWh/kWp annual solar irradiation
1496 kWh/kWp
of 5.41 respectively.
and 5.37 kWh/m 2 , respectively
Meanwhile, each of these regions
(Table 2).generates
Figure electricity
1 shows the of more than 500
average Wh/day
values from
of annual solar
solar PV, which is enough
irradiation in these five regions. to fulfill the energy requirements of rural households.

Table 2. Solar data for the selected regions of Punjab province.

Table 2. Solar data for the selected regions of Punjab province.
Khanewal Multan Bahawalpur Rajanpur
Bhakkar Region
Region Region Region Region
Bhakkar Region Khanewal Region Multan Region Bahawalpur Region Rajanpur Region
Solar Irradiation Earth Temp
Month Solar Irradiation - - - - - - - -
Month (kWh/m2/day) Earth Temp (Celsius)- - - - - - - -
Jan (kWh/m2 /day)
3.91 (Celsius) 14.44 4.18 16.73 4.01 14.41 4.22 15.74 4.24 14.51
Jan Feb 3.91 4.78 14.44 18.174.18 4.74
16.73 20.84
4.01 4.91 18.11
14.41 4.69
4.22 19.84
15.74 4.68 19.07
4.24 14.51
Feb Mar 4.78 5.55 18.17 24.084.74 5.78
20.84 27.66
4.91 5.67 25.98
18.11 5.37
4.69 27.36
19.84 5.46 25.85
4.68 19.07
Mar April 5.55 6.46
24.08 32.94
5.78 6.18
27.66 33.78
5.67 6.48 33.85
25.98 5.61
5.37 34.62
27.36 5.64 33.95
5.46 25.85
May 6.69 38.53 6.48 35.87 6.72 37.36 6.59 37.62 6.58 39.21
April 6.46 32.94 6.18 33.78 6.48 33.85 5.61 34.62 5.64 33.95
June 6.79 41.74 6.59 37.12 6.56 39.27 6.36 39.07 6.58 40.93
May 6.69 38.53 6.48 35.87 6.72 37.36 6.59 37.62 6.58 39.21
July 6.73 40.48 6.68 35.96 6.63 37.72 6.33 37.75 6.71 39.73
June 6.79 41.74 6.59 37.12 6.56 39.27 6.36 39.07 6.58 40.93
Aug 6.55 39.07 6.47 34.19 5.72 37.25 6.31 36.54 5.81 39.21
July 6.73 40.48 6.68 35.96 6.63 37.72 6.33 37.75 6.71 39.73
Sep 5.65 39.08 5.98 33.26 5.63 35.56 5.39 34.76 5.63 35.82
Aug Oct 6.55 4.74
39.07 30.23
6.47 34.19
4.78
5.72
31.28 4.84
37.25
30.69
6.31
5.14
36.54
31.32 5.28
5.81
29.83
39.21
Sep Nov 5.65 4.22 39.08 22.785.98 33.26
4.12 5.63
26.36 4.04 35.56
24.18 5.39
4.37 34.76
25.58 4.23 5.63
20.84 35.82
Oct Dec 4.74 3.51 30.23 15.864.78 31.28
4.06 4.84
19.05 4.04 30.69
16.71 5.14
4.15 31.32
18.29 4.19 5.28
15.04 29.83
NovAverage 4.22 22.78 4.12 26.36 4.04 24.18 4.37 25.58 4.23 20.84
Dec values 3.51 5.46 15.86 29.784.06 5.50
19.05 29.34
4.04 5.43 16.71
29.25 5.37
4.15 29.87
18.29 5.41 29.49
4.19 15.04
Average values 5.46 29.78 5.50 29.34 5.43 29.25 5.37 29.87 5.41 29.49

5.55

5.5
5.5
Annual solar irradition

5.46

5.45 5.43
5.41

5.4
5.37

5.35

5.3
Bhakkar Khanewal Multan Bahawalpur Rajanpur

Figure 1. Annual
Figure solar
1. Annual solarirradiation
irradiation ininthe
the rural
rural regions
regions of Punjab.
of Punjab.
Processes 2019, 7, 708 8 of 14

4.1. Analyzing the Potential of Solar Energy

Besides the average solar irradiation values, the average peak solar hours were also computed
for these regions. The total potential of utilizing solar PV in these selected regions has been shown
in Table 3. The Khanewal and Bhakkar regions have average solar irradiation of 5.50 kWh/m2 and
5.46 kWh/m2 per day, which can generate annual energy output of 1507 kWh/kWp and 1496 kWh/kWp
Processes 2019, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW
respectively. Meanwhile, each of these regions generates electricity of more than 500 Wh/day8from
of 14

solar PV, which is enough to fulfill the energy requirements of rural households.
Table 3. Electricity generation potential of solar PV in the study regions.
3. Electricity
TableSolar
Daily Irradiation generation potential of solar
DailyPV in the
Energy study regions.
Output Annual Energy Output
Region Avg. Peak Solar Hours
(kWh/m2) (Wh) (kWh/kWp)
BhakkarRegion Daily Solar
5.46 Irradiation 5.460 Daily Energy
5460 Output Annual Energy1495
Output
2) Avg. Peak Solar Hours
Khanewal (kWh/m
5.50 5.500 (Wh)
5500 (kWh/kWp)1506
Bhakkar
Multan 5.46
5.43 5.460
5.430 5460
5430 1495 1486
Khanewal
Bahawalpur 5.50
5.37 5.500
5.370 5500
5240 1506 1470
Multan
Rajanpur 5.43
5.41 5.430
5.410 5430
5280 1486 1481
Bahawalpur 5.37 5.370 5240 1470
Rajanpur 5.41 5.410 5280 1481
4.2. Solar Irradiation Received at the Optimal Tilt Angle
4.2. Solar Irradiation
By using Received at(2)–(6),
the Equations the Optimal Tilt Angle
the daily solar irradiation’s mean values have been calculated
and Byshown
using in the
Table 4. It was(2)–(6),
Equations revealedthe that
dailybysolar
changing the angle
irradiation’s of solar
mean values PVhavepanels
beenfrom 0°–90°,
calculated
energy
and output
shown in increased
Table 4. considerably.
It was revealed For that
instance, at the optimal
by changing tilt angle
the angle of 28.9°,
of solar energy from
PV panels yield
0 –90 , energy output increased considerably. For instance, at the optimal tilt angle of 28.9◦ ,
◦ ◦
increased by 9.86% in Bhakkar, while 10.28% in Khanewal at the optimal tilt angle of 28.7°. Similarly,
it increased
energy yieldby 10.35% in
increased by Multan
9.86% inatBhakkar,
28.6°, 9.74%
whileat 10.28%
29.8° ininBahawalnagar,
Khanewal at the andoptimal
10.9% attilt29.4° in
angle
Rajanpur◦ respectively. A graphical representation of the◦ optimal tilt ◦
angles along
of 28.7 . Similarly, it increased by 10.35% in Multan at 28.6 , 9.74% at 29.8 in Bahawalnagar, and 10.9% with the energy
at 29.4◦for
yields in the respective
Rajanpur regions included
respectively. A graphicalin therepresentation
given sample of is the
reported
optimal in Figure 2, based
tilt angles alongonwith
the
solar
the irradiation
energy yieldsdata
for which we haveregions
the respective collected every month
included in the for onesample
given year in is allreported
these regions (Table
in Figure 2,
S1).
based on the solar irradiation data which we have collected every month for one year in all these
regions (Table S1).
Table 4. Solar irradiance (kWh/m2/day) received on a tilted angle from 0–90 degrees.
Table 4. Solar irradiance (kWh/m2 /day) received on a tilted angle from 0–90 degrees.
Region 0° Tilt Angle 30° Tilt Angle 60° Tilt Angle 90° Tilt Angle
Bhakkar
Region 0◦ Tilt5.6
Angle 30◦ Tilt6.1
Angle 60◦ Tilt5.4
Angle 90◦ Tilt3.7
Angle
Khanewal
Bhakkar 5.3
5.6 5.8
6.1 5.2
5.4 3.5
3.7
Multan
Khanewal 5.5
5.3 6.1
5.8 5.5
5.2 3.8
3.5
Multan
Bahawalpur 5.5
5.7 6.1
6.2 5.5
5.5 3.8
3.8
Bahawalpur 5.7 6.2 5.5 3.8
Rajanpur 5.5 6.3 5.6 3.6
Rajanpur 5.5 6.3 5.6 3.6

Optimal tilt angle Energy yield

30 11.0%
29.8 10.8%
Energy yield (Percentage)

29.6 10.6%
29.4 10.4%
Optimal tilt angle

29.2 10.2%
29 10.0%
28.8 9.8%
28.6 9.6%
28.4 9.4%
28.2 9.2%
28 9.0%
Bhakkar Khanewal Multan Bahawalpur Rajanpur

Figure
Figure 2. Optimal tilt
2. Optimal tilt angles
angles along
along with
with the
the energy
energy yields
yields for
for the
the respective
respective regions.
regions.

4.3. Economic Viability of Solar PV System

This study proposed an off-grid solar PV system for rural electrification in Punjab province. The
simulation of the parameters has been presented in Table 5 [58]. By using Equations (7)–(11), it was
Processes 2019, 7, 708 9 of 14

4.3. Economic Viability of Solar PV System

This study proposed an off-grid solar PV system for rural electrification in Punjab province.
The simulation of the parameters has been presented in Table 5 [58]. By using Equations (7)–(11), it was
found that the PV module area was 1.2 m2 , whereas the maximum current and voltage were 7.70 A and
28.5 V, respectively. Abdullah et al. [59] identified that a solar PV system with a generation capacity
of 200 W is suitable to electrify one home. Thus, a 200 W solar panel having a 140 Ah/12 V battery
and conversion efficiency of 16% is appropriate for the electricity needs of one household. All these
five regions generate maximum electricity from April to July. However, electricity generation slightly
reduced during monsoon season i.e., from August to October. Electricity generation continues to
decline through January and then starts to increase in February.

Table 5. Parameters used in the research.

Parameters Unit Value

Area of panel m2 1.2
Power current (Max) A 7.70
Power voltage (Max) V 28.5
Power rating of solar PV WP 200
Average Life of solar PV Year 25
Capital cost of solar PV PKR/WP 110
Efficiency of solar PV % 16
Efficiency of battery % 85
Cost of battery PKR/Ah 120
Life of battery Year 5

The cost of solar PV module accounts for 5.72% of the total installation cost, whereas, the battery
cost is approximately 18.3%. The system’s life cycle is 25 years. However, the batteries need to be
replaced four times, as they have a life cycle time of approximately 5 years. This means that the
total cost of the batteries is approximately 91.5% of the total installation cost. The charge regulator,
inverter, circuit breaker, civil work, and system controller are the other components of the solar PV
system which account for the extra costs [60]. The cost of all these components has been shown in
Table 6. Using Equation (12), the LCE of the proposed system was calculated and it was PKR 7.15/kWh,
whereas the cost of electricity from the traditional grid was PKR 20.7/kWh [58]. Therefore, the solar PV
system saves PKR 13.5/kWh for each household.

Table 6. Installation cost of the components used in off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV) system.

No. Components Quantity Life Time (Years) Price (PKR) Percentage Share of Price
1 Solar PV panel 1 20 5000 5.72
2 Battery 1 5 16,000 18.3
3 Inverter 1 20 250 0.28
4 Civil work - 20 1000 1.14
5 Charge regulator 1 20 275 0.31
6 Circuit breaker 1 20 300 0.34
7 Battery replacement 4 20 64,000 73.2
8 System controller 1 20 500 0.57

4.4. Emissions Mitigation from the Solar PV Power Generation System

A typical 20 kW diesel generator produces 4 kWh of electricity by using 1 liter (L) of diesel [61].
To fulfill the annual electricity demand of 181.8 kWh for the above household example, a diesel
generator needs to consume 45.4 L diesel annually. Thus, according to Equation (14), the proposed
solar PV system can mitigate 97.50 kg CO2 per household annually. There are 6,328,418 households in
Processes 2019, 7, 708 10 of 14

rural Punjab, according to seventh senses of Pakistan [62]. If solar PV system provides 100% electricity
to these households, then approximately 617,020 metric tons of CO2 would be mitigated annually.

5. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

5.1. Conclusions
The off-grid solar PV system has been identified as the best energy option to electrify rural regions
of Punjab province due to its easy installation, transportation, and maintenance. However, before
installing the off-grid solar PV power generation system, it is essential to assess and analyze the
techno-economic feasibility of these regions. Therefore, five rural regions, namely Bhakkar, Khanewal,
Multan, Bahawalnagar, and Rajanpur were selected, and their techno-economic feasibility was
evaluated in this study. A systematic method was developed to assess the solar PV potential of these
regions. Solar radiation received on a horizontal surface was assessed firstly. Secondly, the optimal tilt
angles were calculated to maximize solar energy output in the respective regions. As rural regions
lack the technology required for tracking the sun to increase energy yield. Therefore, the optimal tilt
angle is very useful for rural regions. Although solar trackers are available in the market, they are very
costly, making them unsuitable for rural regions. The research results show that all these regions have
enormous solar energy potential and are suitable for electricity generation. Meanwhile, by varying
the angle of solar PV on the optimal tilt angle, the energy output could be increased significantly.
It was also found that conventional energy sources are more expensive than the off-grid solar PV
system as electricity generation from conventional sources is PKR 20.7/kWh, while it is only PKR
7.15/kWh for the off-grid solar PV system. The study reveals that 617,020 metric tons of CO2 could
be mitigated annually by electrifying 100% rural households with the off-grid solar PV system in
Punjab province. The role of the Pakistani government is very crucial in this respect. The government
should formulate a strong policy framework to reduce the dependence on conventional energy sources
and electrify rural regions with off-grid solar PV system because the fragile economy of Pakistan is
unable to afford the import of costly thermal sources, especially oil. Moreover, the government should
learn from neighboring countries i.e., Bangladesh and India, as they have successfully implemented
rural electrification programs [63,64], and share key geographic, social and economic similarities
with Pakistan. Finally, essential policy recommendations have been provided for all stakeholders.
Government and stakeholders can take benefit from this study, use it as a guide and make procurement
strategies accordingly.

5.2. Policy Recommendations

The following policy recommendations are suggested for the quick deployment of off-grid solar
PV rural electrification programs in Punjab province.
• The research results reveal that all these five rural regions have vast solar energy potential for
electricity generation. Therefore, the related authorities should take the initiative and make
effective strategies to initiate the off-grid solar PV rural programs.
• Though all the regions have a good potential for solar energy, yet Khanewal is most appropriate as it
has the highest solar energy potential among all these regions. Moreover, the geographical location
of this region is technically and economically best for solar energy generation. Therefore, the
government should focus on this region on a priority basis.
• Besides opportunities, there exist barriers as well. Previous studies indicate that the major barriers
in the deployment of solar electricity generation are lack of political will and weak government
policies [65,66]. Thus, it is advised that the government should announce supportive policies for
the maximum utilization of solar energy.
• Some rural solar energy projects did not produce the desired results in the past and failed.
Investors are reluctant to invest in new projects. Therefore, a robust policy framework is needed,
which allows investors to believe in the investment environment.
Processes 2019, 7, 708 11 of 14

• Monetary benefits and tax concessions should be provided to local developers so that they invest
more willingly in new solar PV projects.
• Other key barriers are the unavailability of government subsidies and bank loans to buy solar PV
systems. Thus, the government should establish micro-financing projects and provide subsidies
which encourages rural dwellers to buy off-grid solar PV solutions.
• The existing policy structure gives priority to conventional energy sources instead of renewable
energy. Therefore, this policy structure needs reformations by giving high preference to
renewable sources.
• There is a need to reduce the upfront capital cost of the solar PV system so that rural residents can
easily buy and install solar PV systems.
• The masses should be educated about the benefits associated with solar energy utilization and
make them aware of the harms related to conventional energy. This can be done by organizing
seminars and awareness campaigns at the local level.
• The government should launch training programs and cultivate local professionals to manage,
install and operate solar PV system.

5.3. Limitations and Future Research Directions

The research also has some limitations. Only considered five rural regions of Punjab province
were considered. Therefore, the research findings are unsuitable for other regions and provinces of
Pakistan. Future researchers can take a techno-economic feasibility analysis of off-grid solar PV power
generation to other regions of the country. Moreover, researchers can consider developing a hybrid
renewable energy system, like wind and solar, in rural areas to make them independent of the national
grid. Above all, the government’s role is very crucial to assist rural regions with such hybrid systems
and overcome the energy crises of Pakistan.
In current study, the calculations only involved the net values of energy surplus and energy
deficit, and this is considered as the limitation of current research. Furthermore, supply and demand
on hourly basis would give rich results. However, the current study has used the data on supply and
demand of electricity on an average basis. Thus, it may be taken as a vital future research direction.

Supplementary Materials: The following are available online at http://www.mdpi.com/2227-9717/7/10/708/s1,

Table S1: Solar irradiance (kWh/m2 /day) received on a tilted angle from 0-90 degrees in different regions.
Author Contributions: Conceptualization, M.I.; data curation, M.I. and M.A.; formal analysis, M.I. and Z.-y.Z.;
funding acquisition, Z.-y.Z.; writing—original draft, M.I.; writing—review & editing, M.A., M.K.P., F.H.M. and A.R.
Funding: This work is supported by Beijing Natural Science Foundation (8192043).
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no potential conflict of interest.

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