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the oxford handb o ok of
PROBABILIT Y
AND
PH ILOSOPHY
the oxford handb o ok of
......................................................................................................
PROBABILITY
AND
PHILOSOPHY
......................................................................................................
Edited by
A L AN H ÁJEK
and
C H R ISTOPH ER H I TCHC O CK
1
3
Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, ox dp,
United Kingdom
Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford.
It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship,
and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of
Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries
© in this volume the several contributors
The moral rights of the authors have been asserted
First Edition published in
Impression:
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the
prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted
by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics
rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the
above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the
address above
You must not circulate this work in any other form
and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer
Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press
Madison Avenue, New York, NY , United States of America
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
Data available
Library of Congress Control Number:
ISBN ––––
Printed in Great Britain by
Clays Ltd, St Ives plc
Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and
for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials
contained in any third party website referenced in this work.
Contents
...........................
List of Contributors ix
Introduction
Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock
. Probability for Everyone—Even Philosophers
Alan Hájek and Christopher Hitchcock
PART I: HISTORY
. Pre-history of Probability
James Franklin
. Probability in th- and th-century Continental Europe
from the Perspective of Jacob Bernoulli’s Art of Conjecturing
Edith Dudley Sylla
. Probability and Its Application in Britain during the th
and th Centuries
David R. Bellhouse
. A Brief History of Probability Theory from to
Hans Fischer
. The Origins of Modern Statistics: The English Statistical School
John Aldrich
. The Origins of Probabilistic Epistemology: Some Leading
th-century Philosophers of Probability
Maria Carla Galavotti
PROBABILIT Y
AND
PH ILOSOPHY
........................................................................................................
INTRODUCTION
........................................................................................................
Probability theory has long played a central role in statistics, the sciences, and the
social sciences, and it is an important branch of mathematics in its own right. It has also
been playing an increasingly significant role in philosophy—in epistemology, philosophy
of science, ethics, social philosophy, philosophy of religion, and elsewhere. A case can be
made that probability is as vital a part of the philosopher’s toolkit as logic. Moreover, there
is a fruitful two-way street between probability theory and philosophy: the theory informs
much of the work of philosophers, and philosophical inquiry, in turn, has shed considerable
light on the theory.
This volume encapsulates and furthers the influence of philosophy on probability, and
of probability on philosophy. Nearly forty chapters summarize the state of play and present
new insights in various areas of research at the intersection of these two fields. The chapters
should be of special interest to practitioners of probability who seek a greater understanding
of its mathematical and conceptual foundations, and to philosophers of probability who
want to get up to speed on the cutting edge of research in this area. There is also plenty here to
entice philosophical readers who don’t work especially on probability but who want to learn
more about it and its applications. Indeed, this volume should appeal to the intellectually
curious generally; after all, there is much here to be curious about.
We do not expect all of this volume’s audience to have a thorough training in probability
theory. And while probability is relevant to the work of many philosophers, they often do not
have much of a background in its formalism. With this in mind, we begin with “Probability
for Everyone—Even Philosophers”, a primer on those parts of probability theory that we
believe are most important for philosophers to know. The rest of the volume is divided into
seven main sections:
• History
• Formalism
• Alternatives to Standard Probability Theory
• Interpretations
• Probabilistic Judgment and Its Applications
• Applications of Probability: Science
• Applications of Probability: Philosophy
2 a. hájek and c. hitchcock
The Emergence of Probability, A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction and
one interpretation of probability. Indeed, a case can be made for embracing evidential,
subjective, and physical probabilities for different purposes.) Evidential probability is
meant to capture the degree to which available or hypothetical evidence supports various
hypotheses, where typically such support falls short of entailment. One might think of this
as how objectively plausible the hypotheses are in light of the evidence, irrespective of what
anyone actually thinks. The earliest incarnation of this idea was enshrined in the classical
interpretation of probability, in which the probability of an event is regarded as the ratio
of the number of live possibilities favourable to the event divided by the total number
of live possibilities. (The live possibilities are those that have not been ruled out.) This
interpretation is founded on the indifference principle: when there is no relevant evidence,
or when the relevant evidence bears symmetrically on the alternative possibilities, the
possibilities should be given equal weight. Sandy Zabell’s chapter on symmetry arguments
in probability traces the history of the indifference principle, and more recent heirs of the
classical interpretation that aim to ground probability values in symmetries.
The logical interpretation of probability generalizes this approach to evidential proba-
bility, seeking to measure the degree of support that a body of evidence gives a particular
hypothesis, whatever the evidence and hypothesis. The possibilities can be assigned unequal
weights, and probabilities can be computed whatever the evidence may be, symmetrically
balanced with respect to the hypothesis or not. The result, to the extent that it succeeds, is
a comprehensive inductive logic or confirmation theory. Several chapters in this volume
discuss at least to some extent these themes of evidential probability, the classical and
logical interpretations of probability, and confirmation theory. Maria Carla Galavotti’s
chapter discusses the logical interpretation of probability in the early th century, with
particular attention to the work of Harold Jeffreys. Vincenzo Crupi and Katya Tentori focus
on confirmation theory and inductive logic in their chapter. Matthew Kotzen also addresses
evidential probability in his contribution, paying special attention to the work of Kyburg and
Williamson. Sandy Zabell’s discussion of symmetry arguments additionally covers many
ideas that have been associated with the logical interpretation of probability.
Some authors in philosophy of probability’s pantheon, however, were sceptical of any
notion of logical probability—notably, Ramsey and de Finetti. They advocated a more
permissive subjectivism about probability, which interprets probabilities as degrees of
confidence of suitably rational agents. This interpretation is addressed especially by Lyle
Zynda’s chapter, but it also takes centre stage in the chapters by Fabio Cozman, Franz
Dietrich and Christian List, Stephen Hora, Michael Smithson, and Jan Sprenger.
Meanwhile, a number of authors hold that probabilities reside in the world itself,
mind-independently—these are physical probabilities, often called chances. Frequentist
interpretations identify such probabilities with appropriate relative frequencies in some
sequence of events; see the chapter by Adam La Caze. These interpretations seem to fare
better when there are many trials of the relevant event type—flips of a coin, throws of a die,
Terminological caution: in ordinary English, “confirms” usually means establishes or verifies, but
confirmation theory’s relations are probabilistic. Moreover, these relations include those of evidential
counter-support.
They are sometimes also called objective probabilities. However, logical probabilities are often
regarded as objective also (much as logic itself is often regarded as objective). We thus prefer to speak of
physical probabilities.
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
recognized as a hermit of the neighborhood; I believe they called him the
Monk of Lynrass. It is evident that this poor man was murdered also; but for
what purpose? People are not slaughtered now for their religious opinions,
and the old hermit possessed nothing in the world but his serge gown and
the good-will of all who knew him.”
“And you say,” observed Richard, “that his body was mangled, like
those of the soldiers, as if by the claws of some savage animal?”
“Yes, my dear boy; and a fisherman declares that he noticed the same
marks upon the body of an officer found murdered a few days since upon
Urchtal Sands.”
“That is strange,” said Arthur.
“It is frightful,” said Richard.
“Come,” said Wapherney, “silence, and to work, for I think the general
will be here soon. My dear Gustavus, I am curious to see those corpses. If
you like, we will stop a moment at the Spladgest when we leave here this
evening.”
XVI.
I N 1675, twenty-four years previous to the date of this story, sooth to say,
the whole village of Thoctree rejoiced and made merry over the marriage
of sweet Lucy Pelryhn and that tall, handsome, upright youth, Carroll
Stadt. They had long been lovers, and every one felt a warm interest in the
happy pair upon the day which was to change so many restless hopes and
eager longings into assured and quiet bliss. Born in the same village, reared
in the same fields, Carroll had often in their childhood slept in Lucy’s lap
when tired of play; Lucy had often, as a young girl, leaned on Carroll’s arm
as she returned from work. Lucy was the loveliest and most modest maiden
in the land; Carroll the bravest and noblest lad in the village. They loved
each other, and they could no more remember the day when their love
began than they could recall the day when they were born.
But their marriage did not come, like their love, easily and as a matter of
course. There were domestic interests to be consulted,—family feuds,
relations, obstacles. They were parted for a whole year; and Carroll suffered
sadly far from Lucy, and Lucy wept bitter tears far from Carroll, before the
dawn of that happy day which united them, thereafter never to suffer or to
weep apart.
It was by saving her from great danger that Carroll finally won his Lucy.
He heard cries from the woods one day; they were uttered by his Lucy,
surprised by a brigand dreaded by all the mountain folk, and on the point of
carrying her off to his den. Carroll boldly attacked this monster in human
shape, who gave vent to strange growls like those of a wild beast. Yes, he
attacked the wretch, whom none before had ventured to resist. Love lent
him a lion’s strength. He rescued his beloved Lucy, restored her to her
father, and her father gave her to her deliverer.
Now, the whole village made merry upon the day which united these two
lovers. Lucy alone seemed depressed; and yet never had she gazed more
tenderly at her dear Carroll. But her gaze was as sad as it was loving, and
amid the universal rejoicing this was a subject for surprise. Every moment,
as her husband’s happiness seemed to increase, her eyes expressed more
and more love and despair.
“Oh, my Lucy,” said Carroll, when the sacred rites were over, “the
coming of that robber, a curse to the entire country, was the greatest
blessing for me!”
She shook her head, and made no answer.
Night came; they were left alone in their new abode, and the sports and
dancing on the village green went on more merrily than before, to celebrate
the happiness of the bridal pair.
Next morning Carroll Stadt had vanished. A few words in his
handwriting were brought to Lucy’s father by a hunter from the mountains
of Kiölen, who met him before daylight wandering along the shore of the
fjord.
Old Will Pelryhn showed the paper to his pastor and the mayor, and
nothing was left of last night’s festival but Lucy’s gloom and dull despair.
This mysterious catastrophe dismayed the entire village, and vain efforts
were made to explain it. Prayers for Carroll’s soul were said in the same
church where but a few days before he himself sang hymns of thanksgiving
for his happiness.
No one knew what kept Widow Stadt alive. At the end of nine months of
solitary grief she brought into the world a son, and on the same day the
village of Golyn was destroyed by the fall of the hanging cliff above it.
The birth of this son did not dissipate his mother’s deep depression. Gill
Stadt showed no signs of resemblance to Carroll. His fierce, angry infancy
seemed to prophecy a still more ferocious manhood. Sometimes a little wild
man—whom those mountaineers who saw him from a distance asserted to
be the famous Hans of Iceland—entered the lonely hut of Carroll’s widow,
and the passers-by would then hear a woman’s shrieks and what seemed the
roar of a tiger. The man would carry off young Gill, and months would
elapse; then he would restore him to his mother, more sombre and more
terrible than before.
Widow Stadt felt a mixture of horror and affection for the child.
Sometimes she would clasp him in her maternal arms, as the only tie which
still bound her to earth; again she would repulse him with terror, calling
upon Carroll, her dear Carroll. No one in the world knew what agitated her
soul.
Gill reached his twenty-third year; he saw Guth Stersen, and loved her
madly.
Guth Stersen was rich, and he was poor; therefore he set off for Roeraas
and turned miner, in order to make money. His mother never heard from
him again.
One night she sat at the wheel, by which she earned her daily bread; the
lamp burned low as she worked and waited in her cabin, beneath those
walls which had grown old like herself, in solitude and grief, the silent
witnesses of her mysterious wedding-night. She thought anxiously of her
son, whose presence, ardently desired as it was, would recall much sorrow,
perhaps bring more in its train. The poor mother loved her son, ungrateful
as he was. And how could she help loving him, she had suffered so much
for him?
She rose and took from an antique wardrobe a crucifix thickly coated
with dust. For an instant she looked at it imploringly; then suddenly casting
it from her in horror, she cried: “I pray! How can I pray? Your prayers can
only be addressed to hell, poor woman! You belong to hell, and to hell
alone.”
She had relapsed into her mournful revery, when there was a knock at
the door.
This was a rare event with Widow Stadt. For many long years, in
consequence of the strange incidents connected with her history, the whole
village of Thoctree believed that she had dealings with evil spirits; no one
therefore ever ventured near her hut,—strange superstitions of that age and
ignorant region! She owed to her misfortunes the same reputation for
witchcraft that the keeper of the Spladgest owed to his learning.
“What if it were my son, if it were Gill!” she exclaimed; and she rushed
to the door.
Alas! it was not her son. It was a little monk clad in serge, his cowl
covering all of his face but a black beard.
“Holy man,” said the widow, “what would you have? You do not know
the house to which you come.”
“Yes, truly!” replied the hermit in a hoarse and all too familiar voice.
And tearing off his gloves, his black beard, and his cowl, he revealed a
fierce countenance, a red beard, and a pair of hands armed with tremendous
claws.
“Oh!” cried the widow, burying her head in her hands.
“Well,” said the little man, “have you not in four-and-twenty years
grown used to seeing the husband upon whom you must gaze through all
eternity?”
“Through all eternity!” she repeated in a terrified whisper.
“Hark ye, Lucy Pelryhn, I bring you news of your son.”
“My son! Where is he? Why does he not come?”
“He cannot.”
“But you have news of him. I thank you. Alas! and can you bring me
pleasure?”
“They are pleasant tidings indeed that I bring you,” said the man in
hollow tones; “for you are a weak woman, and I wonder that you could
bring forth such a son. Rejoice and be glad. You feared that your son would
follow in my footsteps; fear no longer.”
“What!” cried the enraptured mother, “has my son, my beloved Gill,
changed?”
The hermit watched her raptures with an ominous sneer.
“Oh, greatly changed!” said he.
“And why did he not fly to my arms? Where did you see him? What was
he doing?”
“He was asleep.”
In the excess of her joy, the widow did not notice the little man’s
ominous look, nor his horrible and scoffing manner.
“Why did you not wake him? Why did not you say to him, ‘Gill, come to
your mother?’ ”
“His sleep was too sound.”
“Oh, when will he come? Tell me, I implore, if I shall see him soon.”
The mock monk drew from beneath his gown a sort of cup of singular
shape.
“There, widow,” said he, “drink to your son’s speedy return!”
The widow uttered a shriek of horror. It was a human skull. She waved it
away in terror, and could not utter a word.
“No, no!” abruptly exclaimed the man, in an awful voice, “do not turn
away your eyes, woman; look. You asked to see your son. Look, I say! for
this is all that is left of him.”
And by the red light of the lamp, he offered the dry and fleshless skull of
her son to the mother’s pale lips.
Too many waves of misfortune had passed over her soul for one misery
the more to crush her. She gazed at the cruel monk with a fixed and
meaningless stare.
“Dead!” she whispered; “dead! Then let me die.”
“Die, if you choose! But remember, Lucy Pelryhn, Thoctree woods;
remember the day when the demon, taking possession of your body, gave
your soul to hell! I am that demon, Lucy, and you are my wife forever!
Now, die if you will.”
It is the belief in those superstitious regions that infernal spirits
sometimes appear among men to lead lives of crime and calamity. In
common with other noted criminals, Hans of Iceland enjoyed this fearful
renown. It was also believed that a woman, who by seduction or by
violence, became the prey of one of these monsters in human form, by that
misfortune was doomed to be his companion in hell.
The events of which the hermit reminded the widow seemed to revive in
her these thoughts.
“Alas!” she sobbed, “then I cannot escape from this wretched existence!
And what have I done? for you know, my beloved Carroll, I am innocent. A
young girl’s arm is without strength to resist the arm of a demon.”
She rambled on; her eyes were wild with delirium, and her incoherent
words seemed born of the convulsive quiver of her lips.
“Yes, Carroll, since that day, though polluted, I am innocent; and the
demon asks me if I remember that horrible day! Carroll, I never deceived
you; you came too late. I was his before I was yours, alas! Alas! and I must
be forever punished. No, I can never rejoin you,—you for whom I weep.
What would it avail me to die? I should follow this monster into a world as
fearful as himself,—the world of the damned! And what have I done? Must
my misfortunes in this life become my crimes in the next?”
The little monk bent a look of triumph and command upon her face.
“Ah!” she suddenly exclaimed, turning toward him; “ah, tell me, is not
this some fearful dream induced by your presence? For you know but too
well, alas! that since the day of my ruin, every night that I am visited by
your fatal spirit is marked by foul apparitions, awful dreams, and frightful
visions.”
“Woman, woman, cease your raving; it is as true that you are wide
awake as it is true that Gill is dead.”
The memory of her past misfortunes had, as it were, blotted out all
thought of her fresh grief; these words revived it.
“Oh, my son! my son!” she moaned; and the tones of her voice would
have moved any but the wicked being who heard it. “No, he will return; he
is not dead; I cannot believe that he is dead.”
“Well, go ask him of Roeraas rocks, which crushed out his life; of
Throndhjem Fjord, which swallowed up his body.”
The widow fell upon her knees, crying convulsively, “God! great God!”
“Be silent, servant of hell!”
The wretched woman was silent. He added: “Do not doubt your son’s
death; he was punished for the sins of his father. He let his granite heart
melt in the sunlight of a woman’s eyes. I possessed you, but I never loved
you. Your Carroll’s misfortune was also his. My son and yours was
deceived by his betrothed, by her for whom he died.”
“Died!” she repeated, “died! Then it is really true? Oh, Gill, you were
born of my misery; you were conceived in terror and born in sorrow; your
lips lacerated my breast; as a child, you never returned my caresses or
embraces; you always shunned and repulsed your mother, your lonely and
forsaken mother! You never tried to make me forget my past distress, save
by causing me fresh injury. You deserted me for the demon author of your
existence and of my widowhood. Never, in long years, Gill, never did you
procure me one thrill of pleasure; and yet to-day your death, my son, seems
to me the most insupportable of all my afflictions. Your memory to-day
seems to me to be twined with comfort and rapture. Alas! alas!”
She could not go on; she covered her head with her coarse black woollen
veil, and sobbed bitterly.
“Weak woman!” muttered the hermit; then he continued in a firm voice:
“Control your grief; I laugh at mine. Listen, Lucy Pelryhn. While you still
weep for your son, I have already begun to avenge him. It was for a soldier
in the Munkholm regiment that his sweetheart betrayed him. The whole
regiment shall perish by my hands. Look, Lucy Pelryhn!”
He had rolled up the sleeves of his gown, and showed the widow his
misshapen arms stained with blood.
“Yes,” he said with a fierce roar, “Gill’s spirit shall delight to haunt
Urchtal Sands and Cascadthymore ravine. Come, woman, do you not see
this blood? Be comforted!”
Then all at once, as if struck by a sudden thought, he interrupted himself:
“Widow, did you not receive an iron casket from me? What! I sent you gold
and I bring you blood, and you still weep. Are you not human?”
The widow, absorbed in her despair, was silent.
“What!” said he, with a fierce laugh, “motionless and mute. You are no
woman, then, Lucy Pelryhn!” and he shook her by the arm to rouse her.
“Did not a messenger bring you an iron casket?”
The widow, lending him a brief attention, shook her head, and relapsed
into her gloomy revery.
“Ah, the wretch!” cried the little man, “the miserable traitor! Spiagudry,
that gold shall cost you dear!”
And stripping off his gown, he rushed from the hut with the growl of a
hyena that scents a corpse.
XVII.
My lord, I braid my hair; I braid it with salt tears because you leave me alone, and
because you go hence into the hills.—The Count’s Lady (Old Romance).
E THEL, meantime, had already reckoned four long and weary days since
she was left to wander alone in the dark garden of Schleswig tower;
alone in the oratory, the witness of so many tears, the confidant of so
many longings; alone in the long gallery, where once upon a time she had
failed to hear the midnight bell. Her aged father sometimes accompanied
her, but she was none the less alone, for the true companion of her life was
absent.
Unfortunate young girl! What had that pure young soul done that it
should be thus early given over to so much sorrow? Taken from the world,
from honors, riches, youthful delights, and from the triumphs of beauty, she
was still in the cradle when she was already in a prison cell; a captive with
her captive father, she had grown up watching his decay; and to complete
her misery, that she might not be ignorant of any form of bondage, love had
sought her out in prison.
Even then, could she but have kept her Ordener at her side, would liberty
have tempted her? Would she ever have known that a world existed from
which she was cut off? Moreover, would not her world, her heaven, have
been with her in that narrow keep, within those gloomy towers bristling
with soldiers, toward which the passer-by would still have cast a pitying
glance?
But, alas! for the second time her Ordener was absent; and instead of
spending all too brief but ever recurring hours with him in holy caresses and
chaste embraces, she passed days and nights in bewailing his absence, and
praying that he might be shielded from danger. For a maiden has only her
prayers and her tears.
Sometimes she longed for the wings of the free swallow which came to
her to be fed through her prison bars. Sometimes her thought escaped upon
the cloud which a swift breeze drove northward through the sky; then
suddenly she would turn away her head and cover her eyes, as if she
dreaded to see a gigantic brigand appear and begin the unequal contest upon
one of the distant mountains whose blue peaks hung on the horizon like a
stationary cloud.
Oh, it is cruel to live when we are parted from the object of our love!
Few hearts have known this pang in all its extent, because few hearts have
known love in all its depth. Then, in some sort a stranger to our ordinary
existence, we create for ourselves a melancholy waste, a vast solitude, and
for the absent one some terrible world of peril, of monsters, and of deceit;
the various faculties which make up our being are changed into and lost in
an infinite longing for the missing one; everything about us seems utterly
indifferent to us. And yet we still breathe, and move, and act, but without
our own volition. Like a wandering planet which has lost its sun, the body
moves at random; the soul is elsewhere.
XVIII.
G ENERAL LEVIN DE KNUD sat at his desk, which was covered with
papers and open letters, apparently lost in thought. A secretary stood
before him awaiting his orders. The general now struck the rich carpet
beneath his feet with his spurs, and now absently toyed with the decoration
of the Elephant, hanging about his neck from the collar of the order.
Occasionally he opened his lips as if to speak, then stopped, rubbed his
head, and cast another glance at the unsealed despatches littering the table.
“How the devil!” he cried at last.
This conclusive exclamation was followed by a brief silence.
“Who would ever have imagined,” he resumed, “that those devilish
miners would have gone so far? Of course they were secretly egged on to
this revolt; but do you know, Wapherney, the thing looks serious? Do you
know that five or six hundred scoundrels from the Färöe Islands, headed by
a certain old thief named Jonas, have already quitted the mines; that a
young fanatic called Norbith has also taken command of the Guldbrandsdal
malcontents; that all the hot-heads in Sund-Moer, Hubfallo, and Kongsberg,
who were only waiting the signal, may have risen already? Do you know
that the mountaineers have joined the movement, and that they are headed
by one of the boldest foxes of Kiölen, old Kennybol? And finally, do you
know that according to popular report in northern Throndhjem, if we are to
believe the lord mayor, who has written me, that notorious criminal, upon
whose head we have set a price, the much-dreaded Hans, has taken chief
command of the insurrection? What do you say to all this, my dear
Wapherney? Ahem!”
“Your Excellency,” said Wapherney, “knows what measures—”
“There is still another circumstance connected with this lamentable affair
which I cannot explain; that is, how our prisoner Schumacker can be the
author of the revolt, as they claim. This seems to surprise no one, but it
surprises me more than anything else. It is hard to believe that a man whose
company my faithful Ordener loves can be a traitor; and yet it is asserted
that the miners have risen in his name,—his name is their watchword. They
even give him the titles of which the king deprived him. All this seems
certain; but how does it happen that Countess d’Ahlefeld knew all these
details a week ago, at a time when the first real symptoms of trouble had
scarcely begun to appear in the mines? It is strange! No matter, I must
provide for every emergency. Give me my seal, Wapherney.”
The general wrote three letters, sealed them, and handed them to his
secretary.
“See that this message is sent to Baron Vœthaün, colonel of musketeers,
now garrisoned at Munkholm, so that his regiment may march at once to
the seat of the revolt; this to the officer in command at Munkholm, an order
to guard the ex-chancellor more closely than ever. I must see and question
this Schumacker myself. Then despatch this letter to Skongen, to Major
Wolhm, who is in command there, directing him to send forward a portion
of the garrison to the centre of rebellion. Go, Wapherney, and see that these
orders are executed at once.”
The secretary went out, leaving the governor plunged in meditation.
“All this is very alarming,” thought he. “These miners rebelling in one
place, this chancellor intriguing in another, that crazy Ordener—nobody
knows where! He may be travelling in the very midst of all these rioters,
leaving Schumacker here under my protection to conspire against the State,
and his daughter, for whose safety I have been kind enough to remove the
company of soldiers to which that Frederic d’Ahlefeld belongs, whom
Ordener accuses of—Why, it seems to me that this very company might
easily stop the advance columns of the insurgents; it is very well situated
for that. Wahlstrom, where it is stationed, is near Lake Miösen and Arbar
ruin. That is one of the places of which the rebels will be sure to take
possession.”
At this point in his revery, the general was interrupted by the sound of
the opening door.
“Well, what do you want, Gustavus?”
“General, a messenger asks to speak for a moment with your
Excellency.”
“Well, what is it now? What fresh disaster! Let the messenger come in.”
The messenger entered, and handed a packet to the governor, saying,
“From his highness the viceroy, your Excellency.”
The general hurriedly tore open the despatch.
“By Saint George!” he cried, with a start of surprise, “I believe that they
have all gone mad! If here is not the viceroy requesting me to proceed to
Bergen. He says it is on urgent business, by order of the king. A fine time
this to transact urgent business! ‘The lord chancellor, now travelling in the
province of Throndhjem, will take your place during your absence.’ Here’s
a substitute in whom I have no confidence! ‘The bishop will assist him—’
Really, these are excellent governors that Frederic chooses for a country in
a state of revolt,—two gentlemen of the cloth, a chancellor, and a bishop!
Well, no matter, the invitation is express; it is the order of the king. Needs
must obey; but before I go I must see Schumacker and question him. I am
sure that there is a plot to involve me in a network of intrigue; but I have
one unerring compass,—my conscience.”
XXI.
“Y ES, Count; it was this very day, in Arbar ruin, that we were told he
might be found. Countless circumstances lead me to believe in the
truth of this valuable information which I accidentally picked up
yesterday, as I told you, at Oëlmœ village.”
“Are we far from this Arbar ruin?”
“It is close by Lake Miösen. The guide assures me that we shall be there
before noon.”
These words were spoken by two horsemen muffled in brown cloaks,
who early one morning were pursuing one of the many narrow, winding
paths which run in every direction through the forest lying between Lakes
Miösen and Sparbo. A mountain guide, provided with a huntinghorn and an
axe, led the way upon his little gray pony, and behind the travellers rode
four men armed to the teeth, toward whom these two persons occasionally
turned, as if afraid of being overheard.
“If that Iceland thief is really lurking in Arbar ruin,” said one rider,
whose steed kept a respectful distance behind the other, “it is a great point
gained; for the difficulty hitherto has been to find this mysterious being.”
“Do you think so, Musdœmon? And suppose he declines our offers?”
“Impossible, your Grace! What brigand could resist gold and a free
pardon?”
“But you know that this is no common scoundrel. Do not judge him by
yourself. If he should refuse, how can you keep your promise of night
before last to the three leaders of the insurrection?”
“Well, noble Count, in that case, which I regard as impossible if we are
lucky enough to find our man, has your Grace forgotten that a false Hans of
Iceland awaits me two days hence at the hour and place appointed for
meeting the three chiefs, at Blue Star, a place, moreover, conveniently near
Arbar ruin?”
“You are right, my dear Musdœmon, as usual,” said the count; and each
resumed his own particular line of thought.
Musdœmon, whose interest it was to keep his master in good humor, for
the purpose of diverting him, asked the guide a question.
“My good man, what is that ruined stone cross yonder, behind those
young oaks?”
The guide, a man with fixed stare and stupid mien, turned his head and
shook it several times, as he said: “Oh, master, that is the oldest gallows in
Norway; holy king Olaf had it built for a judge who made a compact with a
robber.”
Musdœmon saw by his patron’s face that the guide’s artless words had
produced an effect quite contrary to that which he hoped.
“It is a curious story,” the guide added; “good Mother Osia told it to me.
The robber was ordered to hang the judge.”
The poor guide, in his simplicity, did not suppose that the incident with
which he meant to entertain his employers was almost an insult to them.
Musdœmon stopped him.
“That will do,” said he; “we have heard the story before.”
“Insolent fellow!” muttered the count, “he has heard the story before.
Ah, Musdœmon, you shall pay for your impudence yet.”
“Did your Grace speak to me?” obsequiously asked Musdœmon.
“I was thinking how I could obtain the Order of the Dannebrog for you.
The marriage of my daughter Ulrica and Baron Ordener would be an
excellent opportunity.”
Musdœmon was profuse in protestations and thanks.
“By the way,” added his Grace, “let us talk business. Do you suppose
that the temporary recall which we sent him has reached the
Mecklenburger?”
The reader may remember that the count was in the habit of thus
designating General Levin de Knud, who was indeed a native of
Mecklenburg.
“Let us talk business!” thought the injured Musdœmon; “it seems that
my affairs are not ‘business.’ Count,” he replied aloud, “I think that the
viceroy’s messenger must be in Throndhjem by this time, and therefore
General Levin must be getting ready to start.”
The count assumed a kindly tone.
“That recall, my dear fellow, was one of your masterstrokes,—one of
your best planned and most skilfully executed intrigues.”
“The credit belongs as much to your Grace as to me,” replied
Musdœmon, careful, as we have already remarked, to mix the count in all
his machinations.
The master understood this secret desire of his confidant, but chose to
seem unconscious of it.
He smiled.
“My dear private secretary, you are always modest; but nothing can
make me depreciate your most eminent services. Elphega’s presence and
the Mecklenburger’s absence assure my triumph in Throndhjem. I am now
at the head of the province; and if Hans of Iceland accepts the command of
the rebels, which I intend to offer him in person, to me will fall, in the eyes
of the king, the glory of putting down this distressing insurrection and
capturing this terrible brigand.”
They were chatting thus in low voices when the guide rode back to them.
“Masters,” said he, “here on our left is the hillock upon which Biorn the
Just had the double-tongued Vellon beheaded in the presence of his entire
army, the traitor having driven off the king’s allies and summoned the
enemy to the camp, that he might have the appearance of saving Biorn’s
life.”
All these reminiscences of old Norway did not seem to be to
Musdœmon’s taste, for he hurriedly interrupted the guide.
“Come, come, good man, be silent and go your way, without turning
back so often. What do we care about the foolish stories of which these
ruins and dead trees remind you? You annoy my master with your old
wives’ tales.”
XXII.