Towards Sustainable Regional Aviation Environmental Potential of Hybrid Electric Aircraft and Alternative Fuels

Sustainable Production and Consumption 45 (2024) 371–385
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Sustainable Production and Consumption

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/spc
Towards sustainable regional aviation: Environmental potential of

hybrid-electric aircraft and alternative fuels
Nils Thonemann a, b, *, 1, Eleonore Pierrat a, 1, Katarzyna Maria Dudka a, Karen Saavedra-Rubio a,
Anna Lia S. Tromer Dragsdahl a, Alexis Laurent a, c
a
Section for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Lyngby, Denmark
b
Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, 2300 RA Leiden, the Netherlands
c
Centre for Absolute Sustainability, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Editor: Prof. Piera Centobelli The aviation sector needs to reduce its environmental impacts, like climate change and air pollution. New hybrid-
electric aircraft concepts may contribute to abating part of these impacts. But to what extent and under which
Keywords: conditions? This study addresses these questions in the context of regional aviation and identifies technologies
Sustainable regional aviation and concrete actions required for more environmentally sustainable aviation. The environmental impacts of
Hybrid-electric aircraft
emerging hybrid-electric aircraft configurations deployed in 2030, 2040, and 2050 have been comprehensively
Alternative fuels
quantified using prospective life cycle assessment. The entire life cycle of the conventional and hybrid-electric
Environmental impact
Prospective life cycle assessment aircraft configurations was encompassed, covering various technologies and systems like batteries, fuel cells,
Aviation sustainability hydrogen, and selected alternative aviation fuel (AAF) systems. For these elements, detailed life cycle inventories
stemming from primary data, literature, and prospective environmental databases were used, and uncertainty
was evaluated. Results showed that hybrid-electric aircraft with Li-ion batteries appear as a promising transition
technology in the short-term while aircraft propelled by fuel cells using hydrogen from electrolysis yield
important environmental benefits relative to conventional aircraft in longer time horizons. In contrast, the
studied AAFs present little or no environmental benefits when considering environmental impacts holistically,
demonstrating the need to revise existing AAF frameworks and incentives globally. Environmental burden-
shifting from flight emissions in conventional aircraft systems to airport operations and aircraft manufacturing
in hybrid-electric aircraft is also observed in the results, thus calling for strengthened support to airports in their
sustainability management and increased integration of ecodesign practices in future aircraft design and
development.
1. Introduction range flights is environmentally relevant and needed to achieve the

sector sustainability goals (ATAG, 2021; Epstein and O’Flarity, 2019;
Flight tracking data for 2019 indicate passenger transport repre ICAO, 2022; Zaporozhets et al., 2020). For short-range missions under
sented 89 % of the CO2 (carbon dioxide) and NOx (nitrous oxide) 600 nmi, new hybrid-electric aircraft technologies have been advanced
emissions of flights transiting through civil platforms, emitting 903 Mt. to potentially reduce the climate change (CC) impacts of regional
(megaton) CO2 and 4 Mt. NOx (Aviation Week Network, 2023). Short aviation (Gnadt et al., 2019; Schäfer et al., 2018; Su-ungkavatin et al.,
flights under 600 nautical miles (nmi) (1111 km) represented 18 % of 2023; Zaporozhets et al., 2020). The potential of hydrogen hybrid-
these emissions globally and 55 % of the number of flights, meaning that electric aircraft configurations is a key consideration in the develop
regional aviation (aircraft usually accommodating <100 passengers) ment of sustainable aviation despite its technical challenges of hydrogen
accounts for a reasonable part of airport noise and air pollution (Avia storage (Hoelzen et al., 2022; Kapoor et al., 2017). However, to
tion Week Network, 2023). Therefore, mitigating the impacts of short- encourage a transition towards the lowest possible environmental
* Corresponding author at: Section for Quantitative Sustainability Assessment, Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering, Technical University of
Denmark (DTU), Lyngby, Denmark.
E-mail address: [email protected] (N. Thonemann).
1
Nils Thonemann and Eleonore Pierrat contributed equally to this work.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2024.01.013
Received 12 October 2023; Received in revised form 6 January 2024; Accepted 14 January 2024
Available online 19 January 2024
2352-5509/© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Institution of Chemical Engineers. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
N. Thonemann et al. Sustainable Production and Consumption 45 (2024) 371–385
burden, it is crucial to assess the environmental impacts of these inno This study contributes to bridging these gaps in the environmental
vative aircraft configurations through comprehensive environmental sustainability assessment of hybrid-electric aircraft systems by per
sustainability assessments, such as life cycle assessments (LCAs) (Hell forming a prospective LCA that can yield an environmental sustain
weg et al., 2023). ability roadmap to decision- and policy-makers in the aeronautic sector.
Life cycle thinking has become a key complementary tool in decision The specific goals of the study are to (i) quantify the environmental
and policy-making (Sanyé-Mengual and Sala, 2022). LCA is an ISO- impacts of emerging hybrid-electric aircraft technologies, with uncer
standardized methodology that comprises four mandatory steps, tainty characterization, in three time horizons, namely 2030, 2040, and
which are interdependent and iterative: goal and scope definition, life 2050; (ii) compare the environmental performance of hybrid-electric
cycle inventory (LCI) analysis, life cycle impact assessment (LCIA), and aircraft configurations with conventional aircraft using either kerosene
life cycle interpretation (ISO, 2006a, 2006b). Two of the main strengths or AAF; and (iii) provide recommendations to aviation stakeholders and
of LCA lie in its capability to quantify multiple environmental impacts policy-makers for a more sustainable transition in the context of regional
and to do so in a life cycle perspective, i.e., including all activities from aviation. This study builds on the GENESIS project of the Clean Sky 2
the necessary raw materials extraction through production and opera program (https://www.genesis-cleansky.eu/) and concentrates on 50-
tions of the technological systems up to their recycling and ultimate end- PAX regional short-haul aircraft systems (termed “GENESIS aircraft”
of-life (Hauschild et al., 2017). in the following) (Marciello et al., 2023; Thonemann et al., 2023a,
Until now, LCA has been applied to aviation systems in scientific 2023b). The ATR42 regional jet was hence chosen as a reference aircraft,
literature and beyond (Rupcic et al., 2023). However, most aircraft LCAs and the aircraft, airport, and fuel systems were considered from cradle to
focus solely on climate change impacts and present a low level of detail grave.
and transparency (Rupcic et al., 2023). The carbon footprint of hybrid- In the following sections, we will delve into the details of our study,
electric aircraft is thus often performed in literature based on pre beginning with Section 2, where we outline the methods and materials
liminary design outputs such as hybridization degree, energy re employed, followed by Section 3, where we present our results and
quirements, fuel consumption, and weight (Barke et al., 2022; engage in a comprehensive discussion; Section 4 will provide insightful
Johanning and Scholz, 2014; Melo et al., 2023; Ribeiro et al., 2020; recommendations tailored for policy- and decision-makers in the avia
Scholz et al., 2022). This limited the interpretation of these rough car tion industry, and finally, in Section 5, we will conclude our paper while
bon footprints, which indicated that hybridization would perform better offering a forward-looking perspective.
than conventional aircraft for a given mission but did not allow for
hotspot analysis due to a lack of technical specifications of the power 2. Methods and materials
train technology and the coarse granularity of the impact assessment.
The possibilities to improve the design to reduce the impacts have thus 2.1. Overall assessment methodology
been limited. In addition, part of the aircraft system life cycle is often
missing or incompletely covered in hybrid-electric aircraft LCA litera Five hybrid-electric aircraft configurations were evaluated based on
ture: airport systems are such an example, although their relevance may batteries and/or fuel-cell technologies and identified alternative avia
be important due to the change in infrastructure that electricity and tion fuels as technically viable by 2050 (Marciello et al., 2023). For each
hydrogen supply systems entail (Ratner et al., 2019; Siddiqui and time horizon, the prospective LCI, a collection of all inputs, outputs, and
Dincer, 2021). Finally, multiple environmental impact indicators, emissions (ISO, 2006a), was based on primary data and from scientific
beyond mere carbon footprints, should be considered when assessing the literature elaborated in partnership with industry experts (Thonemann
environmental sustainability of aircraft systems to pinpoint tradeoffs et al., 2023a, 2023b). The environmental impacts were quantified using
between environmental problems and avoid burden shifting from one the IMPACT World+ methodology (Bulle et al., 2019) and the compu
impact to another in further decision-making (Rupcic et al., 2023). tational framework Brightway2 for more transparent and reproducible
Overall, these limitations and gaps in past LCA studies in the field make results (Mutel, 2017).
existing LCA results insufficient to comprehensively address compari
sons between hybrid-electric and conventional aircraft systems from a
2.2. Aircraft configurations
future-oriented perspective and provide meaningful recommendations
to stakeholders in the aviation sector.
Based on a design exploration and technology foresight analysis for
Additionally, LCA methodology is conventionally static and relies on
regional hybrid-electric aircraft, different aircraft designs considering
existing data regarding processing practices and current efficiencies
the technology readiness level and the potential sustainability benefits
(Sohn et al., 2020). To provide recommendations to decision-makers
of emerging aircraft technologies were derived fulfilling the top level
regarding the sustainability of future aircraft solutions, it is essential
aircraft requirements (TLAR) outlined in Table 1 (Marciello et al., 2023).
to address the data limitations linked to the novelty of the technologies
The different aircraft configurations (cf. Fig. 1 and Appendix A)
and the issue of dynamic modeling of future environmental impacts and
considered are for (i) the short-term time horizon, gas turbine (GT, also
thus perform so-called prospective LCA (Sacchi et al., 2022; Thonemann
called conventional) and gas turbine with battery (GT-bat), (ii) the
et al., 2020; Thonemann and Schulte, 2019). Prospective LCAs are
medium-term, gas turbine (conventional), GT-bat, and proton exchange
applied to assess the environmental impacts of mature and immature
technologies at a future point in time by using, e.g., upscaling technol
Table 1
ogies and updated LCI background databases (Thonemann et al., 2020).
Top level aircraft requirements for the aircraft design developed in the GENESIS
Past studies have considered the prospective change under the narrow-
project and taken from Marciello et al. (2023). Additional abbreviations: knots
sighted lens of the fuel system only, for example, varying the greenhouse true airspeed (KTAS), nautical miles (nmi).
gas (GHG) emission intensity of the electricity grid in line with gov
Description Value Unit
ernment pledges and considering multiple hydrogen production path
ways (Bicer and Dincer, 2017; Gnadt et al., 2019; Siddiqui and Dincer, Design range 600 nmi
2021). Thus, the future changes in industrial background systems, such Typical range 200 nmi
Time to climb (design mission) 13 min
as electrification, efficiency gains, and technology maturation, have not Cruise speed 295 KTAS
been modeled in such studies. As a result, the questions of when hybrid- Take-off field length <1200 m
electric aircraft technologies become available, under which technical Landing field length <1200 m
specifications, and with which associated environmental impacts have Design payload 4750 kg
Maximum takeoff mass kg
remained unanswered. <24,000
372
Fig. 1. System boundaries for all analyzed aircraft configurations, including gas turbine (also called conventional), gas turbine and battery (GT-bat), proton ex
change membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), and solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat). Substitution of kerosene with alternative aviation fuels (AAF) is
also considered. Components present in all configurations, such as airframe or furnishing, are indicated as boxes with black outline, though differences in, e.g.,
weight and material composition can occur. A variation in the outline color indicates flows differing between configurations, while multiple colors indicate that a
flow appears in several configurations. The SOFC-bat and PEMFC-bat configurations are equivalent, except for the fuel cell, indicated by “C1” and “C2”. Additional
abbreviations: hydrogen (H2), lithium (Li), oxygen (O2), permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM), sulfur (S).
membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), and (iii) the long-term; gas activities within each aircraft configuration (cf. Section 2.2) is illus
turbine (conventional), PEMFC-bat, and solid oxide fuel cell and battery trated in Fig. 1.
(SOFC-bat).
2.4. Data collection and system modeling
2.3. Scoping of the assessment
Different data sources were used for the LCI datasets, which compile
The functional unit (FU), which is the basis for a fair comparison the input and output flows of all activities in the aircraft life cycle sys
across aircraft systems, is defined as the air transportation of 50 pas tems, such as energy, material, waste, emissions, and resources (Saa
sengers in a regional class aircraft over 200 nmi (370 km) (typical vedra-Rubio et al., 2022). LCI data for the specific aircraft technologies
mission) from and to a regional airport in Europe in the years 2030 and systems (defined as “foreground system”) mainly stem from Tho
(short-term), 2040 (mid-term), and 2050 (long-term). The adopted nemann et al. (2023a), which provides a large number of time-
reference flow is thus a flight with the GENESIS aircraft on a typical differentiated LCI datasets for different aircraft technologies built from
mission for each configuration and time horizon. For comparison across primary data collection at industrial sites, reviews of scientific literature
means of transport, the main results are also presented per passenger and existing LCI databases. These datasets enable the modeling of all
and per kilometer (noted “passenger.kilometer” or “pkm” in the considered hybrid-electric aircraft configurations for each time horizon
following), although distances may not be functionally equivalent and include quantified uncertainty information that allows for uncer
(while aircraft can fly more or less directly, trains, cars or buses may be tainty analyses (cf. Section 2.7).
constrained by topography, leading to higher distances to reach a same The premise framework was used to account for the prospective
destination). A cradle-to-grave approach covering all processes or aspect of the background systems, which include all supporting systems
373
independent from the aircraft systems, like electricity supply or waste was one of the most up-to-date and consistent methodologies available
management systems (Sacchi et al., 2022). The premise framework uses in the LCA field. Where shorter-term (0–100 year time horizon) and
integrated assessment models (IAMs) and manipulates the unit processes long-term impacts (0–500 year time horizon) were differentiated in the
from the LCI databases ecoinvent 3.8 cut-off (Wernet et al., 2016) to methods (relevant for some impact categories, e.g., climate change),
reflect prospective changes in the background system, e.g., changes in only shorter-term impacts were considered due to the uncertainties
electricity production over time (Sacchi et al., 2022). In this study, the embedded in the long-term impact characterization (relevant for the
selected IAM scenarios reflect the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 following impact categories; CC, marine acidification, freshwater eco
(SSP2) for each time horizon using the regional model of investments toxicity, and human toxicity damages).
and development (REMIND) (Aboumahboub et al., 2020). Nationally The assessment results were interpreted at both the midpoint and
determined contributions (NDC) were chosen as the default climate endpoint level. Indicators at endpoint level quantify damages to the
policy scenario (also called baseline in the following), translating to a areas of protection, whereas midpoint-level indicators are positioned
global mean surface temperature increase of ~2.5 ◦ C (use of other sce somewhere along the cause-effect chain, from a pollutant emission or
narios was also explored for sensitivity analysis; see Section 2.6 and resource extraction to the eventual damages. While the former in
Section 2.7). This approach leads to temporally differentiated LCI dicators bear more environmental relevance than the latter, they are
models for background systems for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The matching associated with larger model uncertainty. Due to the reduction of in
of background LCI datasets with the aircraft-specific LCI datasets dicators (from 18 to 3), the assessment at the endpoint level also allows
(foreground activities) is documented in a GitHub repository (Thone for solving potential trade-offs between environmental problems
mann and Dudka, 2023), where linkages between appropriate activities observed at the midpoint level. Hence, assessment at both levels is
reflecting the deemed product, technology, and geographical region relevant and was considered in the current study.
were sought. Moreover, the LCI characterization, LCIA, and uncertainty
analysis were computed using the Python package Brightway2 (Mutel,
2017). This open-source package allows transparent analysis docu 2.6. Scenario definition
mentation and enhances the reproducibility of the results.
The effect of three modeling choices on the results was investigated:
the CC scenario used for building the prospective LCI database, the use
2.5. Impact assessment of AAF, and the mission range. Table 3 provides an overview of the
investigated scenarios with changed parameters.
The environmental impact assessment was conducted by considering The CC pathway and mitigation/adaptation trajectories are expected
a large spectrum of environmental problems, such as climate change, to affect the environmental performance of hybrid-electric aircraft, for
particulate matter impacting human health, chemical releases impacting instance, due to the influence of the GHG emission intensity of the
ecosystems, water use, or land use impacts, to name a few (see complete electricity grid (Rupcic et al., 2023). Therefore, this study compared the
list in Table 2). Eighteen different impact categories were encompassed, environmental impacts of the aircraft scenarios with different shared
leading to damages to ecosystems, human health, and natural resources socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios by adjusting the environmental
(defined as areas of protection). database ecoinvent 3.8 using the premise framework (see Section 2.4)
To characterize these impacts, i.e., translating pollutant emissions (Sacchi et al., 2022; Wernet et al., 2016). The baseline scenario assumes
and resource use into potential impact indicators, the LCIA methodology that the committing States will implement their nationally determined
IMPACT World+ (Bulle et al., 2019) was used. At the time of the study, it contributions to mitigate CC (SSP2-NDC); a global mean temperature
Table 2
Environmental impact categories covered in the current assessment (based on Impact World+ LCIA methodology (Bulle et al., 2019)).
Environmental impact category Indicator (midpoint level) Units Link to areas of protection (endpoint level)
Climate change Radiative forcing as global warming potential kg CO2eq. - Human health (HH in disability-adjusted life year, DALY)
(GWP100) - Ecosystems quality (EQ in potentially-disappeared fraction of species
over area and time, PDF.m2.year)
Fossil and nuclear energy use Primary energy content MJ dep. Natural resources (NR) – not covered
Ozone layer depletion Ozone depletion potential kg CFC-11 HH
eq.
Particulate matter formation Number of deaths normalized using PM2.5 as kg PM2.5 eq. HH
reference substance
Photochemical oxidant formation Tropospheric ozone concentration increase kg HH
NMVOCeq.
Human toxicity, cancer and non-cancer Comparative toxic unit for human health CTUh HH
effects [CTUh]
Ionizing radiation Human exposure efficiency relative to C14 Bq C14eq. HH
Freshwater acidification Change of pH in receiving ecosystems kg SO2eq. EQ
Terrestrial acidification Change of pH in receiving ecosystems kg SO2eq. EQ
Freshwater ecotoxicity Comparative toxic unit for ecosystems CTUe EQ
Freshwater eutrophication Increase in phosphorus mass discharged to kg PO4eq. EQ
freshwater
Land occupation Land occupation impacts on biodiversity m2eq*yr EQ
Land transformation Land transformation impacts on biodiversity m2eq. EQ
Marine eutrophication Increase in nitrogen mass discharged to kg Neq. EQ
seawater
Mineral resources use Material competition scarcity kg dep. NR (not covered)
Water scarcity Water scarcity accounts for both human and m3eq. HH, EQ
ecosystems needs
374
Table 3
Defined scenarios for the scenario analysis addressing three key aspects: sensitivity to climate change scenarios, inclusion of indirect land use change impacts, and
longer mission range. Abbreviations: alternative aviation fuel (AAF), climate change (CC), integrated assessment models (IAM), indirect land use change (ILUC),
nationally determined contribution (NDC), nautical miles (nmi), shared socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2). PkBudg500 is a scenario in line with the Paris Agreement.
Scenarios IAM scenario for LCI background database AAF Mission Time horizon
Baseline SSP2-NDC Market mix 200 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050

CC pessimistic SSP2-Base Market mix 200 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050
CC optimistic SSP2-PkBudg500 Market mix 200 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050
AAF-ILUC SSP2-NDC Market mix with ILUC 200 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050
Long mission SSP2-NDC Market mix 600 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050
increase is estimated to be ~2.5 ◦ C at the end of the century. The “CC conducted to quantify the uncertainty related to the LCI data quality. The
pessimistic” and “CC optimistic” scenarios (cf. Table 3:) follow a minimal number of iterations required increases with the number of flows
business-as-usual trajectory with no climate policy (SSP2-Base: +3.5 ◦ C) in the datasets and entails a significantly increased computation time
and a development driven by sustainable practices while respecting the (Heijungs, 2020). The number of iterations was optimized and set to 500
Paris Agreement (SSP2-PkBudg500: 1.2–1.4 ◦ C), respectively. based on the minimum number of runs required for the fuel cell config
The use of AAF to substitute kerosene in conventional and hybrid- urations (datasets with the highest amount of flows and thus the highest
electric aircraft configurations was also tested, owing to its strong pol required amount of iterations) (Oberle, 2015). LCI data statistical dis
icy focus and potential environmental relevance (scenario “AAF-ILUC” tributions were derived from the uncertainty data provided in the LCI files
in Table 3:). AAFs, which include different alternative fuels (including (Thonemann et al., 2023a, 2023b). Most of the LCI data is accompanied
the so-called “sustainable aviation fuels” (ICAO, 2021)), are expected to by a pedigree matrix, used to specify a log-normal distribution for these
abate >60 % of the CO2 emissions of air transportation globally thanks parameters, similar to the procedure used in ecoinvent (Weidema et al.,
to the carbon removal that occurs during the feedstock cultivation for 2013). An appropriate uncertainty range was available for a few pro
biomass-based fuels or carbon capture strategies for electro-fuels (ICAO, cesses, in which case a triangular distribution was assumed if not other
2022). The AAF was modeled as a market mix based on processes wise specified. It was assumed that the uncertainty was unknown for the
available in the premise databases. The fuels added to the market mix remaining processes; therefore, no variability was included.
were selected in line with the EU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) man
dates and the EU sustainability criteria, which specify the biofuel/ 3. Results and discussion
electro-fuel market shares and the kg-CO2-eq/MJ targets in 2030,
2040, and 2050 (EC, 2021). None of the biofuels for which a process 3.1. Comparison across aircraft configurations (baseline scenario)
existed in premise matched the EU sustainability criteria of − 65 % of the
kg-CO2-eq/MJ amount, so the fuels with the closest carbon intensity Overall environmental damage assessment. Accounting for the
were chosen. The AAF market mix processes were hydroprocessed esters LCI uncertainty, all hybrid-electric aircraft configurations (kerosene
and fatty acids synthetic paraffinic kerosene (HEFA-SPK) derived from fuels, electricity, and hydrogen as fuels) were found to reduce the
palm oil and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuel from direct air capture with damages to ecosystems quality compared to conventional aircraft for all
hydrogen produced by electrolysis and wood gasification (see LCI files in time horizons (see Fig. 2). In the short- and medium-term, with a
the GitHub repository (Thonemann and Dudka, 2023)). However, the probability of 75 % and >95 %, the GT-bat hybrid configuration shows
carbon footprint of such AAF is highly dependent on modeling the car less impact on EQ than the conventional aircraft and performed worse
bon flows, particularly the inclusion of indirect land use change (ILUC) than the PEMFC-bat in the medium-term with a likelihood of 75 %.
induced by crop cultivation displacement (Schmidt and De Rosa, 2020; However, hybridization had no advantage when considering the damage
Schmidt et al., 2015). In the baseline scenario, biodiesel AAF was to human health (see Fig. 2, second row). In 75 % of the simulations, the
assumed to be carbon neutral; hence, the carbon capture during crop PEMFC-bat aircraft performed environmentally worse than the con
cultivation compensated for the carbon emissions from fuel burn. In the ventional aircraft in the medium- and long-term for all damages. The
AAF-ILUC scenario, a penalty of 0.61 kgCO2-eq/kg of refined palm oil SOFC-bat aircraft comparison with other configurations in the long-term
was included due to the ILUC (Schmidt and De Rosa, 2020). This penalty was inconclusive due to higher uncertainty causing the interquartile
was considered valid for the selected biodiesel process because palm oil ranges of human health damage scores to overlap. Nonetheless, the
production can be considered a global market; thus, the ILUC value SOFC-bat aircraft performed similarly to the conventional aircraft in 50
represents average market displacements (Schmidt et al., 2015). Finally, % of the simulations (see Fig. 2). Overall, these findings show that
the effect of the mission range on the results by considering a design hybrid-electric aviation alternatives tend to be environmentally ad
mission (600 nmi) for which LCI data are available was also tested (i.e., vantageous compared to conventional aircraft for all time horizons,
“long-term” scenario; Table 3:) (Thonemann et al., 2023a, 2023b). particularly hydrogen aircraft configurations in the medium and long
terms, provided that their impacts on human health are mitigated.
2.7. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis Damages to ecosystem quality. With regard to ecosystem quality,
climate change, land use occupation and transformation (LUo and LUt),
The uncertainty in the results and, consequently, the robustness of and terrestrial acidification (TA) contributed together to >90 % of the
the comparisons of aircraft configurations depends on the uncertainty of damage for all time horizons (Fig. 3A). The reduction of CC obtained
the LCI data, LCIA method, and modeling choices (Huijbregts, 1998; with the hybridization appears sufficient to compensate for small in
Huijbregts et al., 2001). The current assessment includes characteriza creases in LUt and LUo. The main processes contributing to LUo and LUt
tion of the uncertainty in the LCI data and the influence of three critical are the airport building construction and the photovoltaic electricity
modeling choices (choice of IAM scenario, use of AAF, and mission used to charge the batteries (GT-bat, PEMFC-bat, SOFC-bat), with LUo
length) but does not account for the uncertainty in the LCIA methods, as predominantly resulting from the buildings (55 %) and LUt from the
quantified overall uncertainty information is not available for all impact expansion of renewable energy capacity (50 %). Kerosene combustion
categories in a consistent way (Chen et al., 2021; Laurent et al., 2020). and airport building construction were the main causes for the EQ
A Monte Carlo analysis of the LCI data of the foreground system was damage of conventional aircraft, via terrestrial acidification.
375
Fig. 2. Impact assessment results (damages to ecosystems quality and human health) comparing different hybrid-electric regional aircraft configurations and
conventional aircraft (kerosene) across three time horizons (2030, 2040, and 2050). The boxplots represent the distributions for each configuration obtained via
Monte Carlo analysis (n = 500, seed =35). The extremities of the boxplot and the central line represent the interquartile range and the median of the damage scores,
while the whiskers illustrate the 95 % confidence interval. Individual dots represent outliers. Y-axis ranges were limited for visibility reasons to [0,1200] and
[0,7E− 3] respectively for EQ and HH. The same figure including all outliers is shown in Appendix A Fig. A.1, and all Monte Carlo results can be retrieved from
Appendix B. Additional abbreviations: disability-adjusted life years (DALY), functional unit (FU), gas turbine with battery (bat) aircraft (GT-bat), potentially dis
appeared fraction of species (PDF), proton exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat).
376
(caption on next page)

377
Fig. 3. Individual environmental impact contribution to damages to A) ecosystem quality and B) human health for the baseline scenario for all analyzed config
urations and time horizons (2030, 2040, and 2050). The stacked bar plots are based on deterministic results that can be retrieved in Appendix B. Abbreviations:
disability-adjusted life years (DALY), functional unit (FU), gas turbine with battery (bat) aircraft (GT-bat), potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF), proton
exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat).
Damages to human health. CC, water use (WU), particulate matter vary slightly over time for the conventional aircraft configuration, with
formation (PM), and human toxicity carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic the combustion stage having expectedly the largest shares of around 52
(HTc, HTnc) contributed the most to human health damages across all % (EQ) and 47 % (HH). Kerosene production (27 % and 16 % for EQ and
time horizons, with a large increase of WU damage (Fig. 3B). Overall, HH, respectively) and airport operations (20 % and 36 % for EQ and HH,
hybridization considerably reduces the damage of CC and its relative respectively) are the other key drivers of the impacts. Manufacturing
importance in the total damage. It occurs because kerosene is partially conventional aircraft is relatively negligible with about or <1 %
substituted by renewable electricity or low-carbon hydrogen in hybrid- contribution for EQ and HH damages.
electric aircraft configurations. Reducing CC can therefore benefit both For the hybrid-electric aircraft configurations the results slightly
EQ and HH, justifying a strong focus on this impact category. None differ, although the most relevant contributing life cycle stage for the
theless, the CC impact reduction achieved with hybridization was GT-bat configuration remains the combustion stage. Overall, the share
insufficient to compensate for the increase in WU damage (Fig. 3B). In from the fuel supply and combustion tends to decrease over time (− 7–8
the long term, WU impacts resulted from the indirect WU embedded in %), while the airport operations, electricity generation, and aircraft
the electricity demand for hydrogen production and liquefaction, the manufacturing gain larger contribution to the total damage (see Fig. 4).
airport use, and the PEMFC-bat production (approx. 55 %, 28 %, and 6 This can be explained by the increasing hybridization when moving
%, respectively). This tendency is also found in the SOFC-bat configu from short-term to long-term perspective, causing subsequent reduction
ration, although the SOFC-bat production represented a higher share of in fossil fuels and increased demand for electricity and battery capacity
the WU damage to HH (14 %). The impacts of the water used for the needs. Unlike for conventional aircraft, aircraft manufacturing becomes
electrolysis and liquefaction yielded relatively small contributions with a relevant source of impacts, amounting to 5–8 %.
approx. 11 % and 19 % of the WU damage to HH. Nonetheless, using Fuel cell-driven hybrid-electric aircraft configurations follow the
freshwater for hydrogen production in water-stressed areas may be same pattern regarding the key drivers to EQ and HH damages,
problematic, and alternative water sources in these regions should thus although, in the absence of major combustion impacts, a much larger
be investigated (Beswick et al., 2021). impact share is attributable to the airport operations (ca. 60–67 % across
Trade-offs between fossil/nuclear energy use and resource use. all configurations and time horizons), aircraft manufacturing (ca. 8–14
The midpoint impact scores associated with fossil and nuclear energy %) and electricity generation (ca. 17–18 %).
use, mineral resource use, water scarcity, and LUo and LUt, are pre Considering the breadth of the represented aircraft configurations,
sented in Table 1 in Appendix A. Results are similar to the ones observed these findings tend to demonstrate that airport operations and aircraft
at damage level, with overall decrease of impacts over time for all manufacturing can be expected to become increasingly relevant in the
configurations (see above). Yet, trade-offs were observed between fossil environmental burden of future aircraft systems. While the current
and nuclear energy use on one side, and mineral use, and water and land policy focus is primarily directed to abating flight emissions from con
use, on the other. While conventional aircraft performed worse than the ventional aircraft design, a relative burden shifting towards the aircraft
hybrid-electric aircraft configurations in the former category, hydrogen production, particularly the necessary emerging technologies like bat
aircraft configurations were found to perform worse than the conven teries or fuel cells, and more importantly, towards the airport operations
tional aircraft for mineral, water, and land resource use. This is caused is expected to occur. This trend calls for stakeholders to anticipate such
by the use of more renewable systems in hydrogen aircraft systems (e.g., future shifts and fully include these systems in future policy making
photovoltaics): as the energy source is shifted from fossils use towards concerning sustainability (e.g., reinforced ecodesign of aircraft, airport-
more renewables, fossils-related impacts (e.g., climate change, fossils wide policies, etc.).
use, etc.) tend to decrease while other impact categories like minerals
use may remain or even increase due to the equipment manufacturing
(Laurent et al., 2012). 3.3. Scenario analysis
Comparison of results with literature findings. The impact
assessment results are partially concordant with existing literature, even A scenario analysis was conducted to evaluate the potential influence
though past studies often focused on the fuels only and rarely included a of modeling assumptions (see Section 2.6). Environmental impact dis
prospective dimension. Results in Fig. 2 and Fig. 3 reveal that aircraft tributions (considering the Monte Carlo analysis results) when consid
configurations with hydrogen from electrolysis and electric aircraft ering different CC scenarios are provided in Fig. 4 and for different AAFs
(with renewable electricity) lead to lower magnitudes in the impacts in Fig. 5.
caused by greenhouse gas, sulfur oxide (SOx), and NOx emissions (e.g., Relatively modest influence of CC scenario on impact results.
climate change, acidification, etc.) than conventional propulsion, as also The CC scenario modestly influenced the distribution of the environ
found by Siddiqui and Dincer (2021). However, Siddiqui and Dincer mental impacts by shifting the interquartile ranges but without modi
(2021), which assessed the environmental impacts of aviation fuels, did fying the aircraft configuration ranking analyzed in Section 3.1 (cf.
not find a significant increase in ecotoxicity. In the current assessment, Fig. 2). Considering the CC trajectories in the order of increasing tem
hydrogen aircraft were observed to lead to higher human health impacts perature increase (PkBudg500, NDC, Base), the impacts tend to reduce
(relative to conventional aircraft), partly due to higher toxicity from for each configuration. The comparative advantage of hybridization
chemical releases in the systems; this is also in line with Siddiqui and increased when the CC mitigation improved from the pessimistic to the
Dincer (2021). baseline scenario, as the difference in EQ and HH damage between
hybrid-electric and conventional aircraft configurations increased
(Fig. 5). This is due to the electrification of the industry and the higher
3.2. Key drivers of environmental impacts share of renewable energy in the electricity grid factored in the baseline
scenario modeled in the premise database (Sacchi et al., 2022). How
Fig. 4 illustrates the contributions of life cycle stages to damages to ever, the impact distribution between the baseline and optimistic CC
ecosystems (Fig. 4A) and human health (Fig. 4B) for all aircraft con scenarios remained similar. In the premise database, the renewable
figurations and time horizons. The relative life cycle stage contributions energy share in 2050 continues to increase from the baseline to the
378
Fig. 4. Environmental impact contributions from different life cycle stages or elements of the aircraft system based on the baseline scenario and deterministic results
for damages to A) ecosystem quality and B) human health. Results are based on deterministic values and are shown as absolute values with indications of the
represented percentage on the bar plots. The deterministic results can be retrieved in Appendix B. Abbreviations: disability-adjusted life years (DALY), functional unit
(FU), gas turbine with battery (bat) aircraft (GT-bat), potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF), proton exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-
bat), solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat).
379
Fig. 5. Sensitivity analysis of environmental impact assessment results (damages to ecosystems quality and human health) for all tested regional aircraft configu
rations and time horizons considering three different SSP2 scenarios: NDC (baseline scenario), Base (pessimistic climate change (CC) scenario), and PkBudg500
(optimistic CC scenario). The boxplots represent the distributions for each configuration obtained via Monte Carlo analysis (n = 500, seed =35). Y-axis ranges were
limited for visibility reasons to [0,1200] and [0, 7 × 10− 3] respectively for ecosystem quality and human health. The same figure including all outliers is shown in
Appendix A Fig. A.2, and all Monte Carlo results can be retrieved from the Appendix B. Additional abbreviations: disability-adjusted life years (DALY), functional unit
(FU), gas turbine with battery (bat) aircraft (GT-bat), potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF), proton exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-
bat), solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat).
optimistic CC scenario; however, the CC impact reduction is associated sustainable aviation fuel alternatives to kerosene in international
with an increase in other impacts such as land use, ionizing radiation, frameworks such as CORSIA (ICAO, 2021; Prussi et al., 2021), even
ozone depletion, and terrestrial ecotoxicity (Sacchi et al., 2022). This is when the blend includes a large share (28 %) of low-carbon electro-fuel
observed in Fig. 3 with a decrease in climate change and increased land as in the long-term time horizon (see Fig. 6). More promising environ
use impacts in the ecosystem quality damage. mental impact results might be achieved using AAF derived from urban,
AAF overall does not show environmental benefits. As illustrated agricultural, and oil wastes (HEFA-SPK and FT processes) since their
in Fig. 6, scenarios with AAF caused the greatest damages to human generation could be considered burden-free (Baumeister and Leung,
health and ecosystems quality in all time horizons and configurations, 2021; Su-ungkavatin et al., 2023). However, the restricted availability of
except for the GT-bat with AAF, which had overlapping impact distri such feedstock calls into question the viability of using AAF at a large
bution with the PEMFC-bat configuration. While the substitution of scale (Ueckerdt et al., 2021), especially when considering that hybrid
kerosene by AAF supports the decrease of CC impacts, it leads to in ization yields better environmental performance.
creases in other relevant environmental impacts like water scarcity or Environmental benefits of hybridization remain with longer
land occupation (see Appendix B). The palm fruit cultivation and, to a mission. The environmental impacts of the different aircraft configu
lesser extent, the syngas production are thus the key drivers for impacts rations were simulated for a longer mission of 600 nmi. (see Fig. A.4 in
from AAF production, particularly water use and land use impacts, Appendix A). The ranking of the configurations noted in Section 3.1
which counter-balanced the reductions in CC impacts when assessing remains unchanged. The benefits of the hybrid-electric aircraft over the
environmental damages. When factoring in the ILUC, the use of AAF was conventional one for EQ damages were larger than for shorter missions,
logically found to yield even larger environmental impacts due to the and so was the increased HH damages. For longer missions, due to a
additional CO2 emissions resulting from the increase in agricultural land longer cruise phase, the effect of the kerosene substitution by electricity
demand to sustain palm oil for food systems (see Fig. 6) (Schmidt and De and hydrogen is stronger than for shorter ones. These results, therefore,
Rosa, 2020). This result is aligned with AAF studies focused exclusively suggest that hybridization is worthwhile to reduce environmental im
on CC, which found higher impacts for AAF, which were first-generation pacts for any mission between 200 and 600 nmi as long as human health
biofuels derived from food crops (Kolosz et al., 2020; Prussi et al., 2021; damages are mitigated (see Section 3.1).
Zhao et al., 2021). Given the weight of feedstock cultivation in the total Global sensitivity analysis. Following the results of the global
environmental impacts, these findings call for revoking AAF derived sensitivity analysis (results can be retrieved from Appendix B), con
from food crops and recently converted land from the list of potentially ducted in accordance with Cucurachi et al. (2022), only sensitive
380
Fig. 6. Sensitivity analysis of environmental impact assessment results (damages to ecosystems quality and human health) for all regional aircraft configurations and
time horizons considering substitution of kerosene by alternative aviation fuel (AAF) with and without indirect land use change (ILUC) considerations. The boxplots
represent the distributions for each configuration obtained via Monte Carlo analysis (n = 500, seed =35). Y-axis ranges were limited for visibility reasons to [0, 1500]
and [0, 7E− 3] respectively for ecosystem quality and human health. The same figure including all outliers is shown in the Appendix A Fig. A.3, and all Monte Carlo
results can be retrieved from the Appendix B. Additional abbreviations: disability-adjusted life years (DALY), functional unit (FU), potentially disappeared fraction of
species (PDF), proton exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), solid oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-bat).
contributors (δ ≥ 0.1) are identified for the conventional aircraft con an average global train (based on a weighted average of existing trains
figurations when considering the impacts on EQ and HH. It is apparent globally, out of which a share of 85 % is diesel-powered), and an average
that the treatment of solid waste from terminals, direct CO2 emission global coach (diesel-based average coach on a global scale). The meth
during fuel combustion, tap water production for use in airports, and odological details behind these assessments and comparisons are avail
kerosene production are sensitive coefficients in the analysis. In order to able in Appendix A. As noted in Fig. 7, it is important to note that the
reduce uncertainties, it is relevant to decrease uncertainty in the data comparisons made considering the FU may not be fully equivalent since
collection of those activities. aircraft can optimize traveling distances while train and road trans
portation modes are dependent on the topography and may be subject to
larger distances when transporting passengers between two given points.
3.4. Comparison with other modes of transport Another consideration is the varying levels of technology forecast for the
three transport modes. Technology was forecasted to different extents
Aligned with the current assessment, a typical regional aircraft when comparing the aircraft processes established in this study with the
mission corresponds to the transportation of 50 passengers over 370 km ones taken from premise. Technology forecast variations are also present
(equaling 18,520 passenger.km), which could be achieved in a reason within premise itself (Sacchi et al., 2022). However, using this approach
able time by train or road transportation in most regions. Modal substi was deemed the most appropriate within the study.
tution might not be possible everywhere, for instance, in remote areas, Results in Fig. 7 indicate that traveling with a conventional or a GT-
such as the north of Scandinavia, or where the rail and road infrastructure bat aircraft fueled by AAF is associated with similar CC impacts to when
is insufficient. Nonetheless, for contextual purposes, the prospective traveling via a coach or a high-speed diesel train in the short-term.
environmental impacts of a typical mission, fulfilled by the different However, the lowest CC impacts remain by electric trains, provided
aircraft configurations evaluated in the current study or by alternative that the electricity grid mix relies on renewables and is associated with
modes of transport, were assessed and compared; see results in Fig. 7. The low GHG emissions. For instance, the Italian train relies on a grid mix
assessment considered the supporting infrastructure and indirect impacts that embeds a GHG emission intensity of 43 gCO2-eq/kWh (compared to
from electricity generation, including the prospective approach for the the 293 gCO2-eq/kWh for the global average) and is associated with 2–3
alternative mode of transport (rendered possible by the use of premise times lower GHG emissions than AAF-fueled aircraft in the short-term
database (Sacchi et al., 2022)), which was selected as an average train in (ca. 5–6 times for conventional aircraft).
Italy (purely powered by electricity, based on a European electricity mix),
381
Fig. 7. Environmental impact indicator results for A) climate change impacts, B) total human health damages, and C) total ecosystem quality damages from the
transportation of 50 passengers over the distance of the typical mission (200 nmi) with different modes of transport (taken as functional unit, FU). Abbreviations:
alternative aviation fuel (AAF), disability-adjusted life years (DALY), European Union (EUR), gas turbine with battery (bat) aircraft (GT-bat), global average (GLO),
Italy (IT), potentially disappeared fraction of species (PDF), proton exchange membrane fuel cell and battery (PEMFC-bat), solid-oxide fuel cell and battery (SOFC-
bat). Note that the comparisons across different transport modes are indicative and do not consider the possible differences in distances effectively traveled to fulfill a
service of being transported from point A to point B (e.g., due to topography constraints).
Interestingly, the medium- and long-term perspectives may change 3.5. Limitations
the relative environmental burden of the regional hybrid aircraft
compared to trains and coaches. In the medium-term, hybrid-electric Although the study provided unprecedented prospective modeling of
aircraft (PEMFC-bat, GT-bat with AAF) performed better than coaches the environmental impacts of regional aviation that can support robust
but retained higher environmental impacts than trains. In the long-term, results, several methodological limitations should be highlighted and be
hydrogen-driven aircraft (PEMFC-bat, SOFC-bat) showed competitive the source of further research.
CC impacts compared to trains and coaches. The uncertainty analysis only included the quality of the LCI data,
However, when looking at a broader spectrum of environmental the CC background scenario (e.g., influencing the electricity grid mix),
problems and assessing EQ and HH damages, trains and coaches still and the ILUC modeling. The uncertainty of the background database and
performed environmentally better than hybrid-electric aircraft (Fig. 7B). the uncertainty of the LCIA method were not included (Chen et al., 2021;
It should be noted that the total EQ damages of hydrogen-driven aircraft Huijbregts, 1998; Huijbregts et al., 2001). To implement this, informa
are comparable to those of trains in the long-term perspective, in tion on the uncertainty of the prospective LCI datasets and the charac
contrast to the results for total HH damage, where aircraft still retain terization factors is needed. Climate non-CO2 effects of, e.g. water vapor,
high impact values (see Section 3.1). Similar results are obtained for the have not been studied as the GWP of water vapor in lower altitudes
design mission with a flight length of 600 nmi (cf. Appendix A for (regional airliners usually fly below 12,000 km) seem to be negligible as
detailed results). reported in Fuglestvedt et al. (2010). However, these GWPs are associ
From this rough comparison, the conclusion favoring rail is consis ated with high uncertainty.
tent with the literature quantifying the direct GHG emissions of rail and The conclusions are valid for the regional aircraft class, as the model
air transportation substitution, although the relative impact difference is based on the reference aircraft ATR42. Moreover, the hybrid-electric
between the transportation modes can be reduced in a long-term aircraft configurations in scope are technically viable for routes up to
perspective. As indicated in previous sections, an important focus approximately 600 nmi (Rupcic et al., 2023). Globally, different classes
should lie on reducing the human health damages from future hybrid- of aircraft served journeys up to 600 nmi, with narrow-body aircraft
electric aircraft; addressing this aspect may render some aircraft con representing 65 %, regional jets 14 %, and widebody aircraft 7 % of the
figurations competitive with other modes of transport in specific con CO2 emissions in 2019 (Aviation Week Network, 2023). Therefore, the
texts. As noted above, the above comparison is made in a general way, potential GHG abatement obtained by substituting conventional aircraft
without considering an actual specific transport service between two with hybrid-electric aircraft at the global fleet scale is limited (Epstein
points, and it did not consider the passenger shift between the modes of and O’Flarity, 2019). Future research could investigate the technical
transport and their complementarities (Baumeister and Leung, 2021). feasibility and the environmental impacts of hybridization for narrow-
Hence, although the overall trend is not expected to change, unlocking body aircraft.
hybrid-electric aircraft configurations, as assessed in the current study, Other AAF feedstock and conversion routes should be explored to
may bring regional aircraft to be competitive in cases where it is not at assess further the impacts of drop-in fuels. AAF blends have been
present. restricted to fuels whose production processes were available in premise,
i.e., first-generation biofuel (HEFA-SPK from palm oil) and FT e-fuels
382
from direct air capture and hydrogen from wood gasification and elec configurations, provided their human health damages are mitigated.
trolysis. Second-generation AAF from waste such as used oils or energy Reducing these damages may be achieved by tackling impacts from
crops could yield a different result than the ones presented in Section water consumption, particulate matter, and chemical releases pri
3.1. For this, new, forward-looking LCI datasets are needed. Moreover, marily stemming from the large energy and water demand in
the ILUC scenarios only included the effect of food crop displacement in hydrogen production. The design and development of these tech
terms of CO2, while the land occupation and transformation displace nological configurations, along with their further improvement po
ment were not modeled. Therefore, the ILUC scenario only partially tentials, should therefore be prioritized when addressing the
reflects the impacts of indirect land use, and the damage is transition of regional aviation towards more sustainability.
underestimated. • The assessed AAF, particularly those derived from food crops in blend
with electro-fuels, did not appear as an environmentally viable solution to
4. Recommendations for policy- and decision-making in the substitute kerosene, leading in some cases to increased environmental
aviation sector impacts. This calls into question current schemes regarding the so-
called sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), for which revisions may be
The prospective LCA performed in the current study enables to draw warranted. Existing incentives for AAF development, e.g., EU SAF
recommendations to aviation stakeholders, airport managers, and mandates and carbon offsetting and reduction schemes for interna
transport policy-makers for fostering a more sustainable regional avia tional aviation (CORSIA), should thus carefully expand the defined
tion and enhancing the relevance of sustainability assessments applied sustainability criteria to avoid shifting the environmental burden
to aviation. These are summarized in the following: from climate change to other impact categories, such as land use or
water use, or simply prevent inadvertent increase of climate change
• Echoing the lack of consistent and broadly encompassing study in liter impacts (e.g., first-generation biofuels). Ignoring such recommen
ature, aviation stakeholders, including industry and policy-makers, dations runs the risk of diverting investments to unsustainable AAF
should broaden the scope of the ambitions associated with the environ systems, away from more relevant alternatives to develop, like
mental sustainability of future aircraft. As demonstrated in the current hydrogen propulsion (ICAO, 2021). To reframe AAF development,
study, climate change is a key driver to damages to human health and restrictions in terms of feedstock types may be useful to account for
ecosystems quality. However, it is essential that the large spectrum of the variability of AAF environmental performances, e.g., banning
environmental problems, beyond climate change, is addressed and food-crop feedstock and prioritizing AAF derived from waste or
integrated into policy-making and sustainability targets, thus residue materials. Given the limited availability of AAF associated
covering relevant aspects like biodiversity losses and chemical with acceptable environmental performances, a prioritization within
pollution (Hellweg et al., 2023). In the current assessment, climate the aviation sector could be developed. In such a setting, acceptable
change, respiratory impacts from particulate matter, mineral AAFs should be routed to hard-to-abate segments, where there is
resource use, water use, land use, terrestrial acidification, and little or no alternative to AAF, such as long-haul aviation (Ueckerdt
toxicity impacts from chemical releases are key environmental et al., 2021).
problems to consider in future LCA studies of aircraft systems. • The competitiveness of regional aviation relative to other transport modes
• While the environmental relevance of the aircraft flight operations de like electric trains may occur in specific situations and under conditions
creases over time, that of other activities in the aircraft life cycle becomes that further reductions in specific environmental damages (e.g., human
predominant, particularly in relation to airport operations and aircraft health) are addressed. In the long-term perspective, pending addi
manufacturing. Water use and land use impacts from airports were tional efforts to lower specific impacts, the hydrogen-based regional
thus found to contribute to nearly half of the total damages to human aircraft could bring the environmental performances of regional air
health or ecosystems quality for hydrogen-based aircraft, and several transport to a sufficiently low level that may become a relevant
other impacts (e.g., toxicity of chemical releases on ecosystems and alternative to road or electric rail transportation in specific cases.
human health) were driven by the airport construction stage, stem Competitive air transport may thus occur in areas with topographical
ming from electricity embedded in building materials or metals constraints, for example, where flying would allow a direct route
(copper, aluminum) extraction and processing. Likewise, aircraft instead of a convoluted route that would embed larger environ
manufacturing is expected to become increasingly environmentally mental impacts by road, train, or ferry (e.g., traveling over ecosys
relevant because of the increasing demand for emerging technolo tems preserved areas, areas with relief, etc.).
gies, like batteries or fuel cells, which are found to be impact-
intensive. Such identified trends, therefore, call for initiatives 5. Conclusions and outlook
within the aviation sector to target those specific systems. For
example, the integration of ecodesign measures could be strength A prospective LCA was performed to identify environmentally pref
ened, including when addressing emerging technologies, e.g., opti erable regional aircraft configurations in 2030, 2040, and 2050. The
mizing production and recycling of particular elements, like batteries environmental impacts of flying with conventional aircraft were
or fuel cells, improving buy-to-fly ratios for key materials in pro compared to those of various hybrid-electric aircraft configurations
duction, etc. With regard to airports, implementation of sustain employing emerging technologies of batteries and fuel cells. The impacts
ability actions should be facilitated; circular economy initiatives of the fuel systems, including AAF, kerosene, and electricity, and the
targeting material efficiency, circularity of building materials, and impacts of the airport systems were included as part of the aircraft life
direct water use reduction (or recirculation) could thus be stream cycle system and were thus analyzed. The uncertainty introduced by the
lined to support airports in decreasing their environmental footprints LCI data quality, climate change scenarios, and AAF modeling choices
in the medium- and long-term. were analyzed to gauge the robustness of the conclusions.
• Out of the tested aircraft configurations, the assessment shows that In the long-term perspective, the hybrid-electric aircraft configura
adopting hybrid-electric aircraft technologies while phasing out kerosene tion using fuel cells and hydrogen as fuel appeared promising, provided
can bring potentially important environmental benefits to short-range that the high impacts obtained for human health damages are mitigated.
aviation. Overall, hybridization could reduce between 15 % (GT- Improvement potentials could come from gains in energy and water
bat in the short-term) and 83 % (H2 aircraft in the long-term) the efficiency in the hydrogen supply chain and in the airport operations,
damages to ecosystems quality and human health from climate from strengthening building material circularity in the airport con
change. In the medium- and long-term, hydrogen aircraft appeared struction, and from developing further the ecodesign of the fuel cells. In
as the preferred technological track among the analyzed aircraft contrast to the promising hydrogen-based technologies, the assessed
383
AAFs were found to reduce CC impacts at the cost of greater damage to Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program and the Clean
human health and ecosystems quality. Hence, the assessed drop-in fuels Sky 2 JU members other than the Union. This study only reflects the
were not identified as sustainable solutions for short-range flights. In the authors’ views; the JU is not responsible for any use that may be made of
short- and medium-term, hybridization with Li-ion and Li–S batteries the information it contains.
may be regarded as transitioning solutions towards commercial
hydrogen aircraft, but alternative modes of transport for trips up to 600 Appendecies. Supplementary data
nmi generally caused less environmental impacts than flying (per
passenger-kilometer traveled). Based on these findings, a number of Appendix A contains additional figures, tables, and method expla
recommendations were developed for policymakers and aviation nations, and Appendix B contains five result files in an Excel format.
stakeholders at large. A major one is to invite these decision-makers to Additionally, all data, the code used to produce the results, the uncer
prioritize efforts on securing the viability of hydrogen aircraft, addi tainty analysis, and the figures are available on GitHub repository http
tionally supporting the technological development of green hydrogen s://zenodo.org/record/8250228. Supplementary data to this article
production. can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2024.01.013.
Across the assessment performed in the study, climate change im
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Sustainable Production and Consumption 45 (2024) 371–385

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Sustainable Production and Consumption

Towards sustainable regional aviation: Environmental potential of

1. Introduction range flights is environmentally relevant and needed to achieve the

Baseline SSP2-NDC Market mix 200 nmi 2030, 2040, 2050

(caption on next page)

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