ECON 104DA

Midterm Exam
Pellumb Reshidi
Friday February 17, 8:30am - 9:45am

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During this exam, you may use one double-sided “cheat sheet” of notes and a calculator.

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 First and Last Name:

1. You flip three coins. Each coin is different.

• The first coin has the number 0 on one side and 1 on the other.
• The second coin has the number 1 on one side and 2 on the other.
• The third coin has the number 3 on one side and 4 on the other.

(a) (5 points) List the sample space Ω.

Ω = {{0, 1, 3}, {0, 1, 4}, {0, 2, 3}, {0, 2, 4}, {1, 1, 3}, {1, 1, 4}, {1, 2, 3}, {1, 2, 4}}

(b) List the elements that make up the following events:

i. (5 points) A=Exactly two coin numbers match.
A = {{1, 1, 3}, {1, 1, 4}}

ii. (5 points) B=The sum of the numbers on all three coins is 5.

B = {{0, 1, 4}, {0, 2, 3}, {1, 1, 3}}

iii. (5 points) C=The third coin number value is 4.

C = {{0, 1, 4}, {0, 2, 4}, {1, 1, 4}, {1, 2, 4}}

(c) List the elements of the following events:

i. (5 points) (A ∪ B) ∩ C
(A ∪ B) ∩ C = {{0, 1, 4}, {0, 2, 3}, {1, 1, 3}, {1, 1, 4}} ∩ C = {{0, 1, 4}, {1, 1, 4}}

ii. (5 points) B ∩ C C
B ∩ {{0, 1, 3}, {0, 2, 3}, {1, 1, 3}, {1, 2, 3}} = {{0, 2, 3}, {1, 1, 3}}

iii. (5 points) A ∩ B ∩ C
A ∩ B ∩ C=Ø

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2. A consulting company has a total of 20 workers: 15 economists and 5 programmers.

(a) (5 points) We want to form one group of 4 economists (the order of group members matters). In
how many ways can this be done?
15!
= 32, 760
(15 − 4)!

(b) (5 points) We want to form one group of 4 economists (the order of group members doesn’t
matter). In how many ways can this be done?
 
15 15!
= = 1365
4 4!(15 − 4)!

(c) (5 points) If 5 workers are randomly selected to receive a bonus, with each worker having an equal
probability of being selected, what is the probability that all 5 workers are economists?
15


5
20

= 0.193692
5

(d) (5 points) If 2 workers are randomly selected, with each worker having an equal probability of
being selected, what is the probability that one is an economist, and one is a programmer?
15

5

1 · 1
20

= 0.394737
2

(e) (5 points) For an end-of-the-year event the company decides to organize sports activities. If
the workers are randomly split into two equal groups of 10, what’s the probability that all 5
programmers end up in the same group?
We can think of this question as what’s the probability that 10 economists end up in the same
(15)
group? The probability that 10 economists end up in the first group is 10 = 0.0162539. The
(20
10)
probability that 10 economists end up in the second group is the same as above. Thus the total
probability that 10 economists end up in the same group is:
15


10
20

· 2 = 0.0325077
10

Alternative way: The total number of ways to split 20 workers into two groups of 10 is 20


10 . If 5
programmers
are in the first group, we need to choose 5 economists to fill in the rest of the group.
There are 155 ways to do this. If 5 programmers are in the second group, we need to choose 5
economists to fill in the rest of the group. Again, there are 15


5 ways to do this. Leading to:
15 15



5 + 5 3003 + 3003
20

= = 0.0325077
10
184, 756

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3. The joint distribution of random variables A and B is

B
1 2 3
1 0 0.15 0.20
A
2 0.25 0.15 0.25

(a) (4 points) Graph/plot the marginal pmf of B (marginal distribution of B), and the corresponding
CDF.
First, we calculate the marginal pmf of B:

pB (1) = pAB (1, 1) + pAB (2, 1) = 0 + 0.25 = 0.25

pB (2) = pAB (1, 2) + pAB (2, 2) = 0.15 + 0.15 = 0.30
pB (3) = pAB (1, 3) + pAB (2, 3) = 0.20 + 0.25 = 0.45

p(b) F(b)
B

0.45

0.30
0.55
0.25

0.25

b b
0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4

(b) (4 points) Calculate E(A).

First, we calculate the marginal pmf of A:

pA (1) = pAB (1, 1) + pAB (1, 2) + pAB (1, 3) = 0 + 0.15 + 0.20 = 0.35
pA (2) = pAB (2, 1) + pAB (2, 2) + pAB (2, 3) = 0.25 + 0.15 + 0.25 = 0.65

E(A) = 1 · pA (1) + 2 · pA (2) = 1 · 0.35 + 2 · 0.65 = 1.65

(c) (4 points) Calculate E(B).

We already know the marginal pmf of B from part (a). So

E(B) = 1 · pB (1) + 2 · pB (2) + 3 · pB (3) = 1 · 0.25 + 2 · 0.30 + 3 · 0.45 = 2.2

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The joint distribution of random variables A and B is

B
1 2 3
1 0 0.15 0.20
A
2 0.25 0.15 0.25

(d) (4 points) Define random variable Y = A2 · B, calculate E(Y ).

Y is not a linear function of A and B, so we must use the joint distribution to calculate this
expected value.

E(Y ) = pAB (1, 1)12 · 1 + pAB (1, 2)12 · 2 + pAB (1, 3)12 · 3
+ pAB (2, 1)22 · 1 + pAB (2, 2)22 · 2 + pAB (2, 3)22 · 3
= 0 · 1 + 0.15 · 2 + 0.20 · 3 + 0.25 · 4 + 0.15 · 8 + 0.25 · 12 = 6.1

(e) (4 points) Define random variable K = 2 + 3A + 4Y , calculate E(K).

Random variable K is a linear function of random variable A and random variable Y, so we can
directly plug in their expected values.

E(K) = 2 + 3 · E(A) + 4 · E(Y ) = 2 + 3 · 1.65 + 4 · 6.1 = 31.35

(f) (4 points) Calculate E(A|B ̸= 2).

1 · (pAB (1, 1) + pAB (1, 3)) + 2 · (pAB (2, 1) + pAB (2, 3)

E(A|B ̸= 2) =
pB (1) + pB (3)
1 · (0 + 0.20) + 2 · (0.25 + 0.25)
= = 1.71429
0.25 + 0.45

(g) (4 points) Calculate E(B 2 |A = 2).

B is not a linear function, so we must use the joint distribution to calculate this expected value.

12 pAB (2, 1) + 22 pAB (2, 2) + 32 pAB (2, 3) 1 · 0.25 + 4 · 0.15 + 9 · 0.25

E(B 2 |A = 2) = = = 4.76923
pA (2) 0.65

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4. (12 points) Random variable X has the following Cumulative Distribution Function CDF.

 0 if x<0
F (X) = x3
if 0≤x≤3
 27
1 if x>3

Calculate E(X).
R3
We know that E(X) = 0 xf (x)dx. First, we find f (x) by differentiating the CDF

dF (x) x2
= f (x) = ,
dx 9
then we simply plug this value in the expected value formula and integrate
Z 3 Z 3 3
x2 x x4 3 34 − 04 81 9
E(X) = x · dx = dx = = = = = 2.25
0 9 0 9 36 0 36 36 4