Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

1. In a survey, 15% of the participants said that they had never visited Paris or London. 73% has visited
Paris and 49% had visited London. Find the probability that a person chosen at random from those
taking part in the survey
(a) had visited Paris or London;
(b) had visited Paris and London;
(c) had visited Paris only.
Answer:
Let A and B be the events that the participants had visited Paris and London respectively.

Given: P((AB)’) = 15/100 = 0.15

P(A) = 73/100 = 0.73
P(B) = 49/100 = 0.49
(a) P(had visited Paris or London) = P(AB)
= 1 - P((AB)’) = 1- 0.15 = 0.85
(b) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B).
Hence, P(had visited Paris and London) = P(AB)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.73 + 0.49 – 0.85 = 0.37 1
 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )
1. Answer (Cont’d):

(c) Note that A = (AB)(AB’) and (AB)(AB’)= 

Hence, P(A) = P(AB) + P(AB’)
Therefore, P(had visited Paris only) = P(AB’)
= P(A) – P (AB)
= 0.73 – 0.37 = 0.36

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 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

2. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is 0.83. The probability that it
arrives on time is 0.82, and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78. Find the
probability that a plane (a) arrives on time given that it departed on time, and (b) departs on
time given that it has arrived on time.

Answer:
Let D be the event that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time.
Let A be the event that a regularly scheduled flight arrives on time
Then, from given,
P(D) = 0.83
P(A) = 0.82
P(DA) = 0.78

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 Tutorial 3 ( Unit 6 and 7)

2. Answer (Cont’d):
Hence,
(a) The probability that a plane arrives on time given that it departed on time is:


(b) The probability that a plane departs on time given that it arrived on time is:

P(D) = 0.83
P(A) = 0.82
P(DA) = 0.78

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 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

3. An urn contains 5 blue and 7 gray balls. Let us say that 2 are chosen at random, one after the
other, without replacement.
a. Find the following probabilities and illustrate them with a tree diagram: the probability
that both balls are blue, the probability that the first ball is blue and the second is not
blue, the probability that the first ball is not blue and the second ball is blue, and the
probability that neither ball is blue.
b. What is the probability that the second ball is blue?
c. What is the probability that at least one of the balls is blue?
Answer:
Let
 S denote the sample space of all possible choices of two balls from the urn,
 B1 be the event that the first ball is blue (then B1c is the event that the first ball is not blue),
 B2 be the event that the second ball is blue (then B2c is the event that the second ball is not
blue). 5
 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

3. Answer (Cont’d):
a. To Find P(B1  B2), P(B1  B2c), P(B1c  B2), P(B1c  B2c).
5 7 4 7 5 6
𝑃(𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵 |𝐵 ) =
12 12 11 11 11 11

4 5 20
𝑃 𝐵 ∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐵 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = =
11 12 132
7 5 35
𝑃 𝐵 ∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐵 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = =
11 12 132
5 7 35
𝑃 𝐵 ∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐵 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = =
11 12 132
6 7 42
𝑃 𝐵 ∩𝐵 =𝑃 𝐵 𝐵 𝑃 𝐵 = = 5 blue, 7 gray.
11 12 132

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 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )
3. Answer (Cont’d):
Another alternative is to use tree

7
 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

3. Answer (Cont’d):

(b) Second ball is blue can be divided into 2 cases: (1) First ball is blue and second is also blue
second is also blue, (2) first ball is gray and second is blue.
They are mutually exclusive. Hence,

by probability axiom 3

8
 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7 )

3. Answer (Cont’d):

9

 product quality control department in company

Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7)

4. It is known that 10% of the entire population has a disease. The test returns a positive result
in 10% of the cases in which the disease is not present. It returns a positive result in 80% of
the cases in which a disease is present. Calculate the probability of carrying the disease if the
test result is positive.
Answer:
Let A be the event of returning positive test result.
Let D be the event of a person actually carrying the disease.
Dc be the event of a person actually not carrying the disease.

Then, given information is as follows:

P(D) = 0.1
P(A|D) = 0.8
P(A|Dc) = 0.1

Hence, P(Dc) = 1- P(D) = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9 10

 Tutorial 3 (Unit 6 and 7)
4. Answer (Cont’d):


A = (AD)(ADc) and (AD)(A Dc)= 

Hence, P(A) = P(AD) + P(ADc) 𝑐 𝑐

 =

𝑐 𝑐

P(D) = 0.1
P(A|D) = 0.8
=
P(A|D 𝑐) = 0.1
P(D 𝑐) = 0.9
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Tutorial 3 - Question 5
Descriptive Statistics
Question 6: Find the mean and variance for the following data of a sample:

Answer:

Mean ( ) of the given data:

The respective values of the deviations from mean, are

-3, -2, 1 3 4 -5 -1 3

(𝑥 − 9) = 74

1
𝑆 = (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )
𝑛−1

𝑆 = ∑ (𝑥 − 𝑥̅ ) = = 10.57

Hence, Mean = 9 and Variance = 10.57

 Question 7: Find the mean and variance for the following frequency distribution:

Classes 0- 10- 20- 30- 40-

10 20 30 40 50

Frequencies 5 8 15 16 6

Answer:

Classes Frequency Mid-point

0-10 5 5 10/2 25 -22 484 2420

10-20 8 15 120 -12 144 1152

10+20/2

20-30 15 25 375 -2 4 60
20+30/2

30-40 16 35 560 8 64 1024

40-50 6 45 270 18 324 1944

classes
=N sum of
= 50 classes = 1350 =6600
divided by 2
We know, Variance,

Hence, Mean = 27 and Variance = 132

Question 8
Download and Install R and use R to calculate sample mean
and variance…

A little note on entering simple input to R as vector to calculate sample mean

and variance
> sample2 = c(1, 2, 3)
> mean(sample2)
[1] 2
> var(sample2)
[1] 1
>