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8 - 2 Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

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15 views9 pages

8 - 2 Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

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maggott8251
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© © All Rights Reserved
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Bernoulli Trials

and
Binomial Random Variables
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

What do these events have in common?


A 20 year old woman
Toss five coins, what is
meets 5 men at a party,
the probability all five
what is the probability all
turn up heads?
five were never married?
turn up heads?

The similarities you may recognize.


 The same experiment is repeated over and over again.
 Tossing a coin or meeting a man.
 There are only 2 possible outcomes.
 A head or meeting a man who was never married.
 The trials are independent.
 Knowledge of a head or knowing a man has never been married does not affect
the likelihood of getting another tail or meeting a man who was never married.
 The probability of each outcome remains the same.
 P(Head) = 0.5, P(Meet a man who was never married) = 0.84.
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables
Success
A Bernoulli Trial is an experiment
that has two possible outcomes:
Failure
Sum of the 2
 If the probability of success of p,
probabilities
 then the probability of failure is q = 1 – p.
is 1
EX: Roll a die. Consider a success that you roll a 1.
 The probability of success of p = 1/6,
 The probability of failure is q = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6.

A sequence of Bernoulli trials is a sequence of outcomes in which


 Any one trial is independent of any other trial and
 The probability of success is the same for all the trials.
EX: Rolling the die 20 times is a sequence of 20 Bernoulli trials.
 Any one trial is independent of any other trial b/c knowledge
you rolled a 6 does not effect the likelihood of rolling another 6.
 The probability of success is the same for all the trials, 1/6.
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables
A Bernoulli trial may be thought of as every time we repeat any
experiment and observe whether a specific E event occurs.

A Binomial Random Variable is one that counts the number of successes in a


sequence of independent Bernoulli Trials where the number of trials is fixed.

EX: Toss a coin 3 times in a row.


Consider a success tossing a head.

X is the number of successes for each of the


3 trials.
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

Probability Distribution of Binomial Random Variables


If X is the number of success in a sequence of n independent Bernoulli
trials, then:
P(X = x) = b(n,x,p) = C(n,x)(px )(qn-x)
where
 n is the number of trials
 p is the probability of success
 q is the probability of failure = 1 - p

Toss five coins, what is the probability


a) all five turn up heads? b) three turned up heads?

 P(Head) = 0.5; n = 5, p = 0.5, q = 1 - 0.5 = 0.5


a) P(X=5) b) P(X=3)
= b(5,5,0.5) = b(5,3,0.5)
= C(5,5)(0.55 )(0.50) = C(5,3)(0.53 )(0.52)
= 1(0.0315)(1) = 10(0.125)(0.25)
= 0.03125 = 0.3125
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

A 20 year old woman meets 5 men at a party,


what is the probability
a) all five were never married? b) three were never married

 P(Meet a man who was never married) = 0.84. n = 5, p = 0.84, q = 1 – 0.84 = 0.16

a) P(X=5) b) P(X=3)
= b(5,5,0.84) = b(5,3,0.84)
= C(5,5)(0.845 )(0.160) = C(5,3)(0.843 )(0.162)
= 1(0.4182)(1) = 10(0.592704)(0.0256)
= 0.4182 = 0.1517
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

The probability a randomly chosen adult in the USA smokes cigarettes is 0.21.
What is the probability in a sample of five people,
a) Exactly two smoke?
b) construct a probability distribution of X and plot its histogram.
c) Compute P(X ≥ 2)
d) Compute P(X < 2)

a) P(X=2) = b(5,2,0.21)
= C(5,2)(0.212 )(0.793)
= 10(0.0441)(0.493039)
= 0.2174
Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

The probability a randomly chosen adult in the USA smokes cigarettes is 0.21.
What is the probability in a sample of five people,
b) construct a probability distribution of X and plot its histogram.

P(X=0) = b(5,0,0.21) P(X=1) = b(5,1,0.21) P(X=2) = b(5,2,0.21)


= C(5,0)(0.210 )(0.795) = C(5,1)(0.211 )(0.794) = C(5,2)(0.212 )(0.793)
= 1(1)(0.3077056399) = 5(0.21)(0.39850081) = 10(0.0441)(0.493039)
= 0.3077 = 0.4090 = 0.2174

P(X=3) = b(5,3,0.21) P(X=4) = b(5,4,0.21) P(X=5) =b(5,5,0.21)


= C(5,3)(0.213 )(0.792) = C(5,4)(0.214 )(0.791) = C(5,5)(0.215 )(0.790)
= 10(0.009261)(0.6241) = 5(0.00194481)(0.79) = 1(0.0004084101)(1)
= 0.0578 = 0.0077 = 0.0004

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 0.3077 0.4090 0.2174 0.0578 0.0077 0.0004

Check: 0.3077 + 0.4090 + 0.2174 + 0.0578 + 0.0077 + 0.0004 = 1


Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Random Variables

The probability a randomly chosen adult in the USA smokes cigarettes is 0.21.
What is the probability in a sample of five people,
c) Compute P(X ≥ 2)
d) Compute P(X < 2)

x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(X = x) 0.3077 0.4090 0.2174 0.0578 0.0077 0.0004

c) P(X ≥ 2) = 0.2174 + 0.0578 + 0.0077 + 0.0004 = 0.2833


The probability you meet 5 people and 2 or more smoke is 0.2833
28.33% of the time you meet 5 people and 2 or more smoke.

d) P(X < 2) = 1 - 0.2833 = 0.7167


The probability you meet 5 people and 2 or more smoke is 0.7167
71.67% of the time you meet 5 people and less than 2 smoke.

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