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Sustainable Management, Wertschöpfung
und Effizienz

Christian Hürlimann

Valuation of
Renewable Energy
Investments
Practices among German and Swiss
Investment Professionals
Sustainable Management,
Wertschöpfung und Effizienz

Reihe herausgegeben von


Gregor Weber, Breunigweiler, Deutschland
Markus Bodemann, Warburg, Deutschland
René Schmidpeter, Köln, Deutschland
In dieser Schriftenreihe stehen insbesondere empirische und praxisnahe Studien
zu nachhaltigem Wirtschaften und Effizienz im Mittelpunkt. Energie-, Umwelt-,
Nachhaltigkeits-, CSR-, Innovations-, Risiko- und integrierte Managementsys-
teme sind nur einige Beispiele, die Sie hier wiederfinden. Ein besonderer Fokus
liegt dabei auf dem Nutzen, den solche Systeme für die Anwendung in der Praxis
bieten, um zu helfen die globalen Nachhaltigkeitsziele (SDGs) umzusetzen. Pub-
liziert werden nationale und internationale wissenschaftliche Arbeiten.

Reihenherausgeber
Dr. Gregor Weber, ecoistics.institute
Dr. Markus Bodemann
Prof. Dr. René Schmidpeter, Center for Advanced Sustainable Management,
Cologne Business School

This series is focusing on empirical and practical research in the fields of sustain-
able management and efficiency. Management systems in the context of energy,
environment, sustainability, CSR, innovation, risk as well as integrated manage-
ment systems are just a few examples which can be found here. A special focus is
on the value such systems can offer for the application in practice supporting the
implementation of the global sustainable development goals, the SDGs. National
and international scientific publications are published (English and German).

Series Editors
Dr. Gregor Weber, ecoistics.institute
Dr. Markus Bodemann
Prof. Dr. René Schmidpeter, Center for Advanced Sustainable Management,
Cologne Business School

Weitere Bände in der Reihe http://www.springer.com/series/15909


Christian Hürlimann

Valuation of Renewable
Energy Investments
Practices among German and Swiss
Investment Professionals
Christian Hürlimann
Zurich, Switzerland

A thesis submitted to the University of Gloucestershire, UK in accordance with the


requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Business from
Christian Hürlimann, MBA, MSc, Zürich, Switzerland, October 2018

Internal examiner: Prof. Dr. Bob Ryan


External examiner: Prof. Dr. Bernd Britzelmaier
Viva date: 04.07.2018

The original title of this thesis is Valuation Methods in Renewable Energy Invest-
ments: An Explanatory Mixed-Methods Study among German and Swiss Investment
Professionals.

ISSN 2523-8620 ISSN 2523-8639 (electronic)


Sustainable Management, Wertschöpfung und Effizienz
ISBN 978-3-658-27468-9 ISBN 978-3-658-27469-6 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-27469-6

Springer Gabler
© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2019
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part
of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,
recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission
or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or
dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt
from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained
herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with
regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

This Springer Gabler imprint is published by the registered company Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden
GmbH part of Springer Nature.
The registered company address is: Abraham-Lincoln-Str. 46, 65189 Wiesbaden, Germany
Dedication
This thesis is dedicated to my wife, Andrea; our new-born daughter, Emma Lou; my
parents, Elsbeth and Bernhard; and my brother, Michael.
Acknowledgment
Performing this doctoral research was a long road, which would not have been possible
without various key people, organisations, and institutions.

First, I am thankful to my wonderful wife, who gave me the opportunity to embark on


such a long journey, as well as to my family and friends who supported my decision to
pursue a doctoral degree. Furthermore, I would like to thank my supervisors: Prof. Dr.
Dolores S. Bengoa, for her valuable advice, her support in performing this research
from the beginning, and her introduction to her wide academic network, and Dr. Jasim
Al-Ali, for his valuable professional advisory in the research area and his prompt,
constructive, and detailed feedback. My thank goes also to my two examiners Prof. Dr.
Bob Ryan and Prof. Dr. Bernd Britzelmaier for their valuable comments and recommen-
dation of improvements. Without all these inputs, this current piece of research would
have not been possible.

I would like to thank my employer, Elektrizitätswerke des Kantons Zürich (EKZ), which
provided me with the foundation for the whole research, including the research topic,
as well as the opportunity and resources to conduct this study.

I am also grateful to the members of my cohort at the University of Gloucestershire


and the participants of our action learning circle in Switzerland, to the organisers of
the doctoral colloquium at the Kalaidos University of Applied Sciences in Zurich, and to
the academic group of energy policy at the ETH Zurich for the opportunity to present
and discuss my research. I would like to extend my thanks to several master and
doctoral students at the University of St. Gallen (HSG) and the Delft University of
Technology for being able to offer advice and input and to discuss certain issues, whilst
receiving new food for thought for my research.

Last but not least, this research would not have been possible without all the numerous
study participants and people who put me into to contact with other relevant persons
and distributed my requests. This was not self-evident due to confidentiality reasons;
however, the access to the data was crucial for this research. Therefore, I would
express my gratitude to all the involved persons during this process.

Christian Hürlimann
List of Content

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... XIII


List of Figures .............................................................................................................. XVII
List of Tables ................................................................................................................ XXI
Abstract ..................................................................................................................... XXVII
1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Background and Relevance of Research ....................................................... 1
1.2 Scope and Framework of Research ............................................................... 2
1.3 Contribution to Research .............................................................................. 5
1.4 Research Approach........................................................................................ 6
1.5 Publications ................................................................................................... 7
1.6 General Outline of the Thesis ........................................................................ 8
2 Literature Review ................................................................................................. 11
2.1 Renewable Energy Projects and Investors .................................................. 11
Characteristics of RES-E Projects ........................................................ 11
Investors and Investment Motives ..................................................... 12
2.2 The Concept of Risk, Return, and Value ...................................................... 14
Risk and Uncertainty ........................................................................... 14
Probability/Likelihood and Consequence ........................................... 19
Strategic Considerations of Handling and Managing Risk .................. 19
The Risk-Return Trade-Off Concept.................................................... 25
The Concept of Diversification ........................................................... 29
2.3 Risk Management in Valuation ................................................................... 32
Assessment of Uncertainty and Risk .................................................. 32
Risk Components in RES-E Projects .................................................... 33
The Integrated Risk-Return Concept .................................................. 40
Risk Mitigation .................................................................................... 49
2.4 Capital Budgeting Techniques ..................................................................... 52
Finance-Mathematical Concepts ........................................................ 52
Reviewing Existing Valuation Methodologies .................................... 56
Basics of CoC Approaches ................................................................... 79
Risk Treatment within Valuations ...................................................... 84
2.5 Theoretical Principles about CoC ................................................................ 90
Capital Asset Pricing Model and Alternative Approaches .................. 90
X List of content

Estimating Expected Returns of NTAs ................................................ 93


2.6 Investment Appraisal—Value, Price, Measures, and Managerial
Judgement ................................................................................................... 98
Value-based Management ................................................................. 98
Value, Price, and Influencing Factors ............................................... 100
Feasibility and Viability Measures for Investments.......................... 102
Non-numerical Factors and Managerial Judgements in Investment
Appraisals .......................................................................................... 103
2.7 Summary and Conceptualisation .............................................................. 105
Summary of Literature Review ......................................................... 105
Research Gaps .................................................................................. 105
Conceptual Framework .................................................................... 107
Initial Subcategories and Themes ..................................................... 108
3 Research Philosophy and Ethics ......................................................................... 111
3.1 Research Philosophy.................................................................................. 111
Research Philosophy in Literature .................................................... 111
Philosophical Stance and Assumption of this Research ................... 116
3.2 Research Ethics .......................................................................................... 124
Ethical Considerations in Quantitative Phase .................................. 125
Ethical Considerations in Qualitative Phases ................................... 125
4 Empirical Research Approach and Methods ...................................................... 127
4.1 Data Collection and Data Analysis in MMR Design ................................... 127
Mixed-Method Approach in Literature ............................................ 127
Applied MM in this Research............................................................ 136
Targeted Population and Sampling Strategy .................................... 146
4.2 Initial Exploratory Qualitative (qual) Interview Phase .............................. 154
Data Collection Exploring Process .................................................... 154
Initial Data Analysis ........................................................................... 154
4.3 Primary Quantitative (QUAN) Survey Phase ............................................. 155
Research Hypotheses ....................................................................... 155
Quantitative Data Collection ............................................................ 156
Structure of Survey Questionnaire ................................................... 159
Statistical Analysis............................................................................. 165
4.4 Primary Qualitative (QUAL) Interview Phase ............................................ 169
Research Design of Qualitative Research ......................................... 169
Qualitative Data Collection and Documentation Process ................ 170
Qualitative Data Analysis .................................................................. 171
List of content XI

4.5 Inference Phase ......................................................................................... 177


Minor Stages of Integration .............................................................. 177
Primary Stage of Integration ............................................................ 177
Inference Analysis and Framework Development ........................... 178
4.6 Quality, Validation, and Credibility of Research ....................................... 179
Mixed-Methods Research Quality .................................................... 179
Assuring Validity of the Qualitative Phases ...................................... 182
Validity Check of the Quantitative Phases ....................................... 184
Assuring the INF Quality ................................................................... 186
Assuring the Quality in Relation to the Applied MMR Design ......... 187
5 Results and Findings ........................................................................................... 189
5.1 Findings of Exploratory Qualitative (qual) Phase ...................................... 189
Inputs for QUAN Phase ..................................................................... 189
Inputs for QUAL Phase ...................................................................... 190
5.2 Results of Quantitative (QUAN) Analysis .................................................. 191
Firm and Participant Statistics .......................................................... 191
Analysis Results ................................................................................. 192
Results of Validity Check ................................................................... 203
Support and Rejection of Hypotheses .............................................. 203
Interesting Phenomena to be Analysed in QUAL Phase .................. 207
5.3 Findings of Qualitative (QUAL) Analysis .................................................... 209
Findings from Investment Scenario Discussions .............................. 209
General Findings about Valuation Processes ................................... 212
Numerical Approaches in Capital Budgeting .................................... 214
Judgmental Approaches in Capital Budgeting .................................. 227
Cost of Capital Approaches............................................................... 237
Risk Considerations in Valuation ...................................................... 250
Influencing Factors in Valuation ....................................................... 259
5.4 Findings from INF Analysis ........................................................................ 270
Inferences within Capital Budgeting Approaches ............................ 270
Inferences within CoC Approaches................................................... 272
Inferences within Risk Assessment, Risk Mitigation, and
Adjustments for Risk ......................................................................... 273
Inferences about Influencing Factors in Valuation .......................... 274
Inferences about Answer Behaviour ................................................ 275
5.5 Final Concepts ........................................................................................... 276
Equity Value Driver and Influencing Factor Model .......................... 277
XII List of content

Uncertainty/Risk Consideration Model in Valuation ....................... 279


Integrated EVCaP Model .................................................................. 280
6 Conclusion and Outlook ..................................................................................... 283
6.1 Discussion .................................................................................................. 283
Risk Components and their Prioritisation, Processing, and Impact
on Valuation ...................................................................................... 283
Applied Valuation Techniques and Encountered Influences and
Deficiencies ....................................................................................... 286
Proposed Valuation Concepts .......................................................... 289
6.2 Contribution to the Body of Knowledge ................................................... 290
6.3 Contribution to Practice ............................................................................ 292
6.4 Limitation of the Research ........................................................................ 294
6.5 Direction for Further Research .................................................................. 295
6.6 Personal Reflection about Research Journey ............................................ 298
Bibliography and References ...................................................................................... 301
Appendices .................................................................................................................. 356
Value creation methods ............................................................................ 356
Alternative CoC to CAPM .............................................................. 356
Project Valuation and Risk/Uncertainty Management .......... 362
Interview candidates (QUAL phase ........................................................... 363
Questionnaire ............................................................................................ 364
Post-hoc tests ............................................................................................ 378
Interview Protocol—1. part of interview (semi-structured interview) ..... 379
Interview protocol—2. part of interview with the investment
scenarios .................................................................................................... 382
QUAN result tables .................................................................................... 386
Details OF Validity Check in QUAN Phase ................................................. 404
QUAL result tables ..................................................................................... 417
Details ABOUT inference results ............................................................... 425
Endnotes…………………………………………….………………………………………………………........... 427
Abbreviations
AHP Analytical hierarchy process
APM Arbitrage pricing model
APT Arbitrage pricing theory (=APM)
βj or βasset Beta coefficient
CAPM Capital asset pricing model
CAQDAS Computer-assistant qualitative data analysis software
CCAPM Consumption-based CAPM
CF Net cash inflow
CI Capital invested
CIO Chief investment officer
CoC Cost of capital
DAX Deutscher Aktienindex
DCF Discounted cash flow
DD Due diligence
DNPV Decoupled net present value
DSCR Debt service coverage ratio
DV Dependent variable
eNPV Expected net present value
EPC Engineering procurement construction
ERP Equity risk premium
EVA Economic value added
EVCaP model Equity value creation and value protection model
EVDIF model Equity value driver and influencing factor model
FF Fama-French
FiT Feed-in tariff
FCF Free cash flow
FCFE Free cash flow to equity
FCFF Free cash flow to firm
FTE Flow to equity
GDB Gross domestic product
‫ܫ‬଴ Initial investment
ICAPM Intertemporal CAPM
ICF Initial coding frame
IV Independent variable
LCOE Levelised cost of electricity
IPP Independent power producer
XIV Abbreviations

iRADR Implied risk-adjusted discount rate


IRR Internal risk of return
LDD Legal DD
LR Literature review
M&As Mergers and acquisitions
MA Multiple approach (in valuation)
MIRR Modified IRR
MM Mixed-methods
MMR Mixed-methods research
NOPAT Net operating profit after tax
NPV Net present value
NTA Non-traded asset3 on the public market
OPEX Operational expenditure
O&M Operation and maintenance
P Probability (for example, in the term P value)
PB Payback period
PCA Principal component analysis
PD Project developer
PDF Probability density function
PI Profitability index
PPA Power purchase agreement
PTC Publicly traded company
PV Present value
QDA Quantitative data analysis
qual Minor qualitative research phase
QUAL Primary qualitative research phase
QUAN Primary quantitative research phase
r Discount rate
RE Renewable energy
RES Renewable energy source
RES-E Power plants producing electricity from renewable energy sources
RAPV Risk adjusted project valuation
RRM Risk ranking matrix
ROV Real option valuation
R&D Research and development
SMI Swiss market index
SPA Share purchase agreement
SPV Special purpose vehicle
Abbreviations XV

TDD Technical DD
t Time and period
VaR Value at risk
VBM Value-based management
WACC Weighted average cost of capital
List of Figures
Figure 1: Research spectrum (author’s own illustration). ....................................... 6
Figure 2: General outline of thesis with milestones (shown as diamonds;
author’s own illustration). ........................................................................ 8
Figure 3: A 2x2 cross tabulation about the level and quality of knowledge of an
event in terms of probability and consequences to define risk and
different states of uncertainty (adopted from Bernhardt, 2000,
Willows et al., 2003, Bitaraf and Shahriari, 2015). ................................. 15
Figure 4: Process of defining uncertainty and risk (adopted from Cleden, 2012). 16
Figure 5: Illustration of opportunity and risk (Böttcher, 2009). ............................ 18
Figure 6: Model representing the ranges of risk universe, risk capacity, risk
tolerance, and risk appetite (Marks, 2011). ........................................... 21
Figure 7: Risk attitude, behaviour, and consequences (adopted from Hillson
and Murray-Webster, 2007, Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009). ................ 24
Figure 8: Risk-return relationships of exemplary securities (adopted from
Arnold, 2008) (DAX: Deutscher Aktienindex = German share index,
listing the 30 largest and revenue-strongest German companies; SMI:
Swiss market index, listing the 20 most liquid and largest Swiss
companies; FiT: feed-in tariff). ................................................................ 28
Figure 9: Life cycle phases of RES-E projects, illustrating the time-variable risk-
value relationship (adopted from Liebreich, 2005, Ambler and Kroll,
2007, Böttcher, 2009, Project Management Institute (PMI), 2009,
Watts, 2011, Deloitte, 2015). .................................................................. 29
Figure 10: Systematic and unsystematic risks (adopted from Böttcher and
Blattner, 2010, Hawawini and Viallet, 2011, Watts, 2011). ................... 30
Figure 11: Reducing overall portfolio risks through diversification (adopted
from Böttcher and Blattner, 2010, Loderer et al., 2010, Brealey et al.,
2011, Hawawini and Viallet, 2011, Koller et al., 2015). .......................... 31
Figure 12: Sources of uncertainty and risk for an RES-E project, illustrated from
an accounting perceptive, based on the income statement (adopted
from Hawawini and Viallet, 2011). ......................................................... 34
Figure 13: Types of risks in terms of different levels (investor, firm, and project)
for n1ew investment projects and the correlation, either negative (–)
or positive (+), of their risk to firms’ and investors’ risk (adopted from
Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009, Brigham and Houston, 2012, Ehrhardt
and Brigham, 2016). ................................................................................ 41
Figure 14: Spectrum of undiversified versus diversified investors (author's own
illustration, based on work of Damodaran, 2012). ................................. 48
Figure 15: Trade-off between risk mitigation measures and their costs (adopted
from Cleden, 2012). ................................................................................ 50
XVIII List of figures

Figure 16: Scheme for computing the levered and unlevered cash flow
according to the direct estimation method (adopted from Beringer,
2010). ...................................................................................................... 54
Figure 17: One-phase model and two-phase model of valuation (author’s own
illustration). ............................................................................................. 55
Figure 18: Overview of the different DCF-based methods (adopted from
Steiner and Wallmeier, 1999, Schultze, 2003, Britzelmaier, 2013). ....... 58
Figure 19: Different valuation models in relation to defining the equity value
(adopted from Richter, 1998, Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009,
Hawawini and Viallet, 2011). .................................................................. 65
Figure 20: The NPV vs. the discount rate relationship diagram, applied to
discuss and rank mutually exclusive projects (adopted from Arnold,
2013). ...................................................................................................... 72
Figure 21: Equity IRR and project IRR calculation (author’s own illustration). ....... 73
Figure 22: The CoC in relation to different capital structures, considering tax
shield and financial distress (adopted from Brigham and Ehrhardt,
2008, Arnold, 2013, Mielcarz and Mlinarič, 2014). ................................ 82
Figure 23: Illustration of RADR concept in case of an all-equity financed
company (adopted from Arnold, 2013). ................................................. 85
Figure 24: Comparing top-down and bottom-up approaches (author’s own
illustration). ............................................................................................. 87
Figure 25: Classification of different approaches to estimate beta factor for
CAPM and/or risk premium for NTAs (adopted from Pfister, 2003,
Peemöller, 2005, Britzelmaier et al., 2012). ........................................... 94
Figure 26: Fernandez’s value drivers (adopted from Fernandez, 2016). .............. 100
Figure 27: Iteration cycle during investment decision process between value
and price (author’s own illustration). ................................................... 102
Figure 28: Decision making based on a financial versus risk performance chart
(NPV vs. DNPV) from a value perspective, illustrated with fictive
project examples (adopted from Espinoza and Rojo, 2015). ............... 103
Figure 29: Conceptual framework about valuation and its possible influence
factors (author’s own illustration). ....................................................... 107
Figure 30: General influence factors on valuation processes (capital budgeting
processes and CoC approaches), presented in an initial concept
map format (author’s own illustration). ............................................... 108
Figure 31: Preliminary subcategories and themes to investigated in more detail
in the forthcoming research phases (ICF after literature review;
screenshot with knots in software nVivo10TM; author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 109
List of figures XIX

Figure 32: The key building blocks of research with examples of fundamental
questions and their interactive interrelationships (adopted from
Grix, 2002, Cua and Garret, 2009). ....................................................... 113
Figure 33: Research choices according to Saunders et al. (2009) (chosen
approach in bold letters)....................................................................... 128
Figure 34: General sequential explanatory design, applied with equal, major
priority setting (adopted from Creswell et al., 2003). .......................... 138
Figure 35: Overview of the applied research design (adopted from Greene
and Hall, 2010, Creswell, 2013). ........................................................... 141
Figure 36: Degree of standardisation and structuring of questions and answers
in interviews (adopted from David and Sutton, 2011). ........................ 146
Figure 37: Sampling strategy for the QUAN phase, surveying entire population
and sample frame, and proportional stratified random sampling for
the German population (author’s own illustration). ............................ 150
Figure 38: Sampling strategy for QUAL phase (author’s own illustration). ........... 151
Figure 39: Applied four-step QUAL analysis procedure in quan-QUAN-QUAL
MM approach (author’s own illustration). ........................................... 172
Figure 40: Quality management in qualitative data collection and processing
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 183
Figure 41: Updated ICF from literature review after qual phase (screenshot
from knots in software nVivo10TM; knots marked with + were
added by the qual phase; authors‘ own illustration). .......................... 190
Figure 42: Survey responses to the question ‘How would you rate the
significance of each of the following types of risk to your company's
RE projects?’ in relation to systematic and unsystematic risk
components presented in section 2.2.5 (author’s own illustration). ... 193
Figure 43: Significance of risk types (systematic and unsystematic risks) in
relation to the different type of project stages of RES-E investments
(1 = very low risk; 5= very high risk; author’s own illustration). .......... 194
Figure 44: Illustration showing survey responses to the question ‘In general,
how would you assess the overall degree of risk associated with
each of the following stages of planning, building and operating RE
power plants? (1 = very low risk; 5= very high risk)’ (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 197
Figure 45: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company re-estimate return rates requirements for investment
projects?’ (author’s own illustration). .................................................. 201
Figure 46: Multibeta risk for adjusting discount rates and/or cash flows,
including unsystematic risk (U) and systematic risk (S) components
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 202
XX List of figures

Figure 47: Updated initial coding frame (ICF) from literature review and qual
phase after the QUAN phase (with knots in software nVivo10TM,
knots marked with + were added by the QUAN phase; author’s
own illustration). ................................................................................... 208
Figure 48: Concept map about applied judgmental approaches in valuation
processes (author’s own illustration). .................................................. 227
Figure 49: Reasons for and against applying/considering hurdle rates (PD:
project developers; author’s own illustration). .................................... 247
Figure 50: General influence factors on valuation processes (capital budgeting
processes and CoC approaches), illustrated in a concept map
(author’s own illustration). .................................................................. 260
Figure 51: Project-specific EVDIF model for RES-E investments—an enhanced
model based on the concepts of Arnold (2013) and Fernandez
(2016). ................................................................................................... 278
Figure 52: Uncertainty/risk consideration model within valuation for RES-E
investments: Risk component and risk consideration matrix (TDD:
Technical DD, LDD: Legal DD, S: systematic risk, U: unsystematic
risk, D: effect of duration on systematic risk; author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 279
Figure 53: Integrated EVCaP model measures both financial and risk
performance, from the perspective of the project’s stand-alone,
within-firm and market risk (author’s own illustration). ...................... 281
Figure 54: Plot of financial performance (the IRR) versus risk performance (the
implied IRR) for several project examples. The arrow indicates the
effects on IRR and implied IRR based on judgmental considerations
regarding potential diversification effects from the single
investment to firm and/or investor level (grey filled dots represent
the valuation of single project X, and grey patterned dots represent
the valuation of project X considering diversification effects from a
firm and/or investor perspective; illustration based on the work of
Espinoza and Rojo, 2015). ..................................................................... 282
Figure 55: Project valuation adjustment and uncertainty/risk management
framework (author’s own illustration). ................................................ 362
Figure 56: Organisation characteristics (author’s own illustration). ..................... 386
Figure 57: Characteristics of participants (author’s own illustration). .................. 387
Figure 58: Results from the inferences process (screenshot from nVivo10TM;
author’s own illustration). .................................................................... 425
List of Tables
Table 1: Research aim, objective, research objectives, and contribution of
literature review and applied methods (main focus: cells with thicker
frame, author’s own illustration). ............................................................. 4
Table 2: Businesses that consider different project risks in the capital
budgeting process (author’s own illustration). ...................................... 34
Table 3: Systematic risk determinants for estimating risk premiums and their
applicability for publicly traded companies (PTC), non-traded assets
(NTA) and suggested for RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X): less
applicable, - : not applicable; author’s own illustration). ....................... 37
Table 4: Unsystematic risk determinants for estimating risk premiums and
their applicability for publicly traded companies (PTC), non-traded
assets (NTA) and suggested for RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X):
less applicable, - : not applicable; author’s own illustration). ................ 38
Table 5: Overview and summary of the described risk analysis approaches,
including their advantages and disadvantages (author’s own
illustration). ............................................................................................. 45
Table 6: Available approaches to assess and/or consider project risks in
capital budgeting processes as suggested by financial theory (T) and
according to empirical surveys (S) among practitioners, and their
supposed applicability for RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X):
more or less applicable / only in combination with other methods,
- not applicable; author’s own illustration). ........................................... 46
Table 7: A selection of risk mitigation measures in addition to natural hedges
as suggested by financial theory (T) and according to empirical
surveys (S) among practitioners and their supposed applicability
for RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X): more or less applicable /
only in combination with other methods, - not applicable; author’s
own illustration). .................................................................................... 51
Table 8: Classification of different existing valuation methods (adapted from
Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009, Fernandez, 2016), with main
valuation methods according to Mielcarz and Mlinarič (2014) in
italics. ...................................................................................................... 57
Table 9a: Overview of the various DCF-based methods for the equity/direct
approaches to estimate the equity value of an investment (adopted
from Hagenloch, 2007, Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009, Hawawini and
Viallet, 2011, Britzelmaier, 2013, Deloitte, 2014, Mielcarz and
Mlinarič, 2014). ....................................................................................... 66
Table 9b: Overview of the various DCF-based methods for the entity/indirect
approaches to estimate the equity value of an investment (adopted
from Hagenloch, 2007, Drukarczyk and Schüler, 2009, Hawawini and
XXII List of tables

Viallet, 2011, Britzelmaier, 2013, Deloitte, 2014, Mielcarz and


Mlinarič, 2014). ....................................................................................... 66
Table 10: The NPV vs. the IRR—characteristics, limitations, drawbacks, and
theoretical dominance (adopted from Kierulff, 2008, Arnold, 2013). ... 71
Table 11: Available approaches in capital budgeting processes as suggested by
financial theory (T) and according to empirical surveys (S) among
practitioners, certain key features and their supposed applicability
for RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X): more or less applicable /
only in combination with other methods, - not applicable; author’s
own illustration). ..................................................................................... 77
Table 12: Available approaches to determine or apply hurdle rates as
suggested by financial theory (T) and according to empirical surveys
(S) among practitioners and their supposed applicability for RES-E
investments (X: applicable, (X): more or less applicable / only in
combination with other methods, - not applicable; author’s own
illustration). ............................................................................................. 83
Table 13: Proposed models for estimating expected returns of non-traded
assets as suggested by financial theory and according to empirical
surveys among practitioners and their supposed applicability for
RES-E investments (X: applicable, (X): more or less applicable / only
in combination with other methods, - not applicable, PTC: publicly
traded company, NTA: non-traded asset; author’s own illustration). ... 97
Table 14: Research gaps, issue addressing, and contribution to the body of
knowledge and practice (author’s own illustration). ........................... 106
Table 15: Several levels of MMR to identify philosophical issues (adopted
from Biesta, 2010). ................................................................................ 112
Table 16: Applied MMR rationales within this research (adopted from Greene
et al., 1989, Greene and Caracelli, 1997, Erzberger and Kelle, 2003,
Bryman, 2006, Plano Clark and Ivankova, 2016, Schoonenboom and
Johnson, 2017). ..................................................................................... 130
Table 17: Sequential explanatory design, described by eight decision criteria
to determine the appropriate MMR typology for this research
(adopted from Creswell et al., 2003, Schoonenboom and Johnson,
2017). .................................................................................................... 138
Table 18: Interview candidates in QUAL phase (full table in Appendix A4 in
Table 34; author’s own illustration). ..................................................... 153
Table 19: Structure of the questionnaire (author’s own illustration). ................. 157
Table 20: Risk categories belonging either to systematic and unsystematic
risks (adopted from Hürlimann and Bengoa, 2017a). .......................... 160
Table 21: Risk components evaluated in questionnaire (S: systematic risk, U:
unsystematic risk) (adopted from Hürlimann and Bengoa, 2017a). .... 163
List of tables XXIII

Table 22: Considered statistical tests (adopted from Brosius, 1998, Field,
2013, UZH, 2016a, c, d). ........................................................................ 167
Table 23: Applied types of coding in the quantitative analysis (in accordance
with the classification of David and Sutton, 2011). .............................. 174
Table 24: Aggregation of codes to categories to receive categorised code
matrix, demonstrating the approval of the participants with grey
cells (example of findings presented here for illustration purposes;
authors‘ own illustration). .................................................................... 176
Table 25: Alternative presentation of categorised code matrix, with specific
icons representing the type of approval or denial of each
participant (example of findings presented here for illustration
purposes; authors‘ own illustration). ................................................... 176
Table 26: Quality assessment framework within this MMR (authors‘ own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 181
Table 27: Categorised code matrix presenting the findings of the applied
valuation methods, found in the discussion of the provided
investment scenario (+ applied, - not applied; +/-: applied in some
cases, sometimes not applied, 0 = interesting, but not applied;
author’s own illustration).). .................................................................. 211
Table 28: Different multiples applied in screening/benchmarking RES-E
investment projects in valuation processes (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 226
Table 29: Inference findings for numerical capital budgeting techniques in
RES-E investment valuations (author’s own illustration). .................... 271
Table 30: Reference findings of CoC approaches in RES-E investment
valuations (author’s own illustration). .................................................. 273
Table 31: Reference findings of risk assessment, risk mitigation, and
adjustments for risk in RES-E investment valuations (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 274
Table 32: Inference results about influencing factors in RES-E investment
valuations (author’s own illustration). .................................................. 275
Table 33: Principle models for estimating expected returns as suggested by
financial theory and according to empirical surveys among
practitioners (PTC: publicly traded company, NTA: non-traded
asset) (author’s own illustration). ......................................................... 360
Table 34: Full table of interview candidates in QUAL phase (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 363
Table 35: Different post-hoc tests and its applicability for this study (adopted
from Maynard, 2013, Grande, 2015b). ................................................. 378
Table 36: Demographic correlations of control variables in the survey1
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 387
XXIV List of tables

Table 37: Survey responses to the question ‘How would you rate the
significance of each of the following types of risk to your company's
RE projects?’ in relation to organisation type, country, company
size, leverage of company and its stock exchange listing (arithmetic
mean) (author’s own illustration). ........................................................ 388
Table 38: Survey responses to the question ‘How would you rate the
significance of each of the following types of risk to your company's
RE projects? (1 = low risk; 5= high risk)’ in relation to investment
point of time concerning the various project stages (arithmetic
mean) (author’s own illustration). ........................................................ 389
Table 39: Survey responses to the question ‘How would you rate the
significance of each of the following types of risk to your company's
RE projects? (1 = low risk; 5= high risk)’ in relation to materialised
risk by asking “Which types of risk materialised in your company's
RE business in the past five years?” (in %) (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 390
Table 40: Survey responses to the question ‘In general, how would you assess
the overall degree of risk associated with each of the following
stages of planning, building and operating RE power plants? (1 =
low risk; 5= high risk)’ in relation to organisation type, country,
company size, leverage of company and its stock exchange listing
(arithmetic mean) (author’s own illustration). ..................................... 391
Table 41: Survey responses to the question ‘In the past five years, which of
the following risk mitigation measures has your company used for
its RE investment business?’ in relation to organisation type,
country, company size, leverage of company and its stock exchange
listing (in %) (author’s own illustration)................................................ 392
Table 42: Survey responses to the question ‘In the past five years, which of
the following risk mitigation measures has your company used for
its RE investment business?’ in relation to materialised risk by
asking ‘Which types of risk materialised in your company's RE
business in the past five years?’ (in %) (author’s own illustration). ..... 393
Table 43: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company use the following techniques when deciding which RE
projects / acquisitions to pursue?’ in relation to organisation type,
country, company size, leverage of company and its stock exchange
listing (arithmetic mean) (author’s own illustration). .......................... 394
Table 44: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company use the following techniques when deciding which RE
projects / acquisitions to pursue?’ in relation to the investment
focus concerning project stages (arithmetic mean) (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 395
List of tables XXV

Table 45: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company use the following techniques and/or approaches in
determining cost of equity or discount rates when valuing RE
investments?’ in relation to organisation type, country, company
size, leverage of company and its stock exchange listing (arithmetic
mean) (author’s own illustration). ........................................................ 396
Table 46: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company use the following techniques and/or approaches in
determining cost of equity or discount rates when valuing RE
investments?’ in relation to the various project stages (arithmetic
mean) (author’s own illustration). ........................................................ 397
Table 47: Survey responses to the question ‘How frequently does your
company use the following discount rates when valuing a new RE
investment project?’ in relation to organisation type, country,
company size, leverage of company and its stock exchange listing
(arithmetic mean) (author’s own illustration). ..................................... 398
Table 48: Survey responses to the question ‘When valuing RE projects, does
your company adjust either the discount rate or cash flows for the
following risk factors?’ in relation to organisation type, country,
company size, leverage of company and its stock exchange listing
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 399
Table 49: Survey responses to the question ‘When valuing RE projects, does
your company adjust either the discount rate or cash flows for the
following risk factors?’ in relation to materialised risk (author’s
own illustration). .................................................................................. 403
Table 50: Robustness check of capital budgeting techniques in terms of
education and experience.1 (author’s own illustration). ...................... 407
Table 51: Robustness checks in relation to CoC methods in terms of
education and experience 1 (author’s own illustration). ...................... 408
Table 52: Robustness checks in relation to CoC methods, in particular about
the application of discount rates, in terms of education and
experience 1 (author’s own illustration). .............................................. 409
Table 53: Robustness check for dependency between the DCF techniques in
terms of understanding the topic (author’s own illustration).............. 410
Table 54: Robustness check of discount rates answers in relation to
application of WACC (author’s own illustration). ................................. 411
Table 55: Internal reliability test with Cronbach’s Alpha (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 412
Table 56: Dependency between various capital budgeting techniques
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 414
XXVI List of tables

Table 57: Survey responses to the question “How frequently does your
company use the following techniques when deciding which RE
projects / acquisitions to pursue?” in relation to organisation type,
country, company size, leverage of company and its stock
exchange listing (arithmetic mean) (author’s own illustration). .......... 414
Table 58: Survey responses to the question “How frequently does your
company use the following techniques when deciding which RE
projects / acquisitions to pursue?” in relation to the investment
focus concerning project stages (arithmetic mean) (author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 415
Table 59: Application of discount rates in relation to applying past
experiences in discount rate definition (author’s own illustration). .... 416
Table 60: Categorised code matrix indicating the findings about missing or
inadequate as well as key information for valuing RES-E investment
projects, based on the discussion of the provided investment
scenario (FiT: Feed-in tariff, OPEX: operational expenditures;
author’s own illustration). .................................................................... 417
Table 61: Categorised code matrix regarding general findings about valuation
(author’s own illustration). ................................................................... 418
Table 62: Categorised code matrix regarding the application of numerical
capital budgeting techniques for the valuation of RES-E
investments (*encountered while discussing the investment
scenarios; grey cells: applied / agreed with; author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 419
Table 63: Categorised code matrix regarding the application of judgmental
assessments (i.e., applied methods and factors considered) in the
valuation of RES-E project investments; *encountered while
discussing the investment scenarios, grey cells: applied / agreed
with; author’s own illustration). ........................................................... 420
Table 64: Categorised code matrix regarding the application of CoC
approaches for the valuation of RES-E project investments
(*encountered while discussing the investment scenarios;
**reports observation, i.e., not applied by participant; grey cells:
applied / agreed with; author’s own illustration)................................. 421
Table 65: Categorised code matrix about risk considerations in valuation
(grey cells: applied / agreed with; author’s own illustration). ............. 422
Table 66: Categorised code matrix about influence factors in valuation
processes (grey cells: applied / agreed with; author’s own
illustration). ........................................................................................... 423
Abstract
This research aims to evaluate the currently applied valuation approaches in practice
among German and Swiss professional investors for renewable energy (RE) projects
based on an explanatory, sequential, mixed-methods (MM) research approach,
compared to existing financial theory. It additionally explores associated influencing
factors, key equity value drivers, and ‘best practice’ approaches and/or improvements
in order to propose a revised valuation approach specifically for such investments. The
inferences (INFs) taken are obtained by integrating quantitative (QUAN) results from a
survey of 111 practitioners with qualitative (QUAL) findings through in-depth
interviews with 16 purposefully selected individuals from the pool of participants from
the previous QUAN phase to explore those results in more detail.

The results and findings were both reassuring and surprising while still detecting a
certain gap between theory and practice. As main research outcomes, it can be
illustrated that both systematic and unsystematic risks are relevant for performing
valuations of such investments. More specifically, for the former, political and market
risks are the most important risk components, and for the latter, weather-related
volume risk is most important. Risk preferences and subsequently valuation are clearly
influenced by experienced materialisation of risk. Discounted cash flow (DCF)-based
valuation is state of the art in this valuation, even if multiples are applied as a simplified
benchmarking approach. Encountered risk leads either to adjustment in the cash flows
or in the applied discount rate, the former being the main approach to treat risk in
valuation. The internal rate of return (IRR) approach is the most frequently applied
valuation methodology, even if the net present value (NPV) approach is theoretically
more consistent and even though many practitioners do not seem to be aware of the
former’s potential drawbacks. Moreover, the market for such investments has agreed
to apply a simplified flow to equity (FTE) valuation approach. It thus ignores the
consideration of the right type of discount rate (a dynamic discount rate) for the
typically applied autonomous financing structure based on project financing for
simplification reasons. Market participants surprisingly still use the weighted average
cost of capital (WACC) of the investing company, mostly as a basis for defining hurdle
rates, even if finance theory could clearly demonstrate its irrelevance as a cost of
capital (CoC) approach in DCF-based valuation. More sophisticated valuation methods
are less known and not applied, even if the certainty equivalent (CE) and adjusted
present value (APV) methods are promising, complementary methods to support
conventional approaches for assessing the investment’s value protection ability and
performing impairment test respectively.
XXVIII Abstract

The discussion of the INF analysis results helps to increase the understanding of this
complex topic and provides valuable insights into this usually hidden procedure. The
applied MM approach allowed for the exploration of issues and the discussion of
possible improvements in valuation practices, which would not be possible within a
classic quantitative study. The developed concepts in this thesis provide practitioners,
particularly equity investors, with powerful tools to define the relevant equity value
drivers, to understand additional influencing factors in valuation and considerations of
risk treatments in projects, and to value RE investments along the two dimensions of
value creation and value protection.
1 Introduction
1.1 Background and Relevance of Research
Starting in 1992 with the Earth Summit in Rio, followed by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997
and the Paris Agreement in 2015, more than 190 countries have joined the
international treaty to stabilise climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions
to keep the average global temperature rise below 2°C (UNFCCC, n.d.). An effective
means of reducing such emissions is the decarbonising of the power sector, a central
theme promoted in many countries and by many globally acting programmes
(Jägemann et al., 2013, Skea, 2015, EEA, 2017, Steffen and Schmidt, 2018). This trans-
formation to a sustainable, low-carbon economy is based on facilitating the
breakthrough of power plants producing electricity from renewable energy sources
(RES-E)1 (Reichmuth, 2013, IEA, 2015, Unteutsch and Lindenberger, 2016).

In the current market environment, with historically low overall interest rates and with
economic challenges in several countries, many investors are attracted to subsidised2
RES-E projects with robust returns due to their absence of correlations with stock
exchanges and their anticipated, favourable risk-return profiles (Warren, 2014), which
make such investments economically more attractive (Monnin, 2015, Thakkar, 2015).
However, many investors were forced to accept impairment losses in some of their
RES-E investments (Shah, 2011). The question to be answered is now as follows: have
all risk components been properly considered in the valuation process?

While asset pricing research has extensively studied the relationship between risk and
return on publicly traded companies (PTCs), including many theoretical publications
about valuation (e.g. Brigham and Houston, 2012) and several empirical studies about
the application of methods (e.g. Graham and Harvey, 2001, Brounen et al., 2004),
surprisingly little attention has been paid to the class of non-traded assets (NTAs)3 to
which the majority of RES-E projects belong and to other, mostly qualitative factors
that influence valuations and transactions. Even if this private equity4 market is at least
as important, in terms of size, growth, and the volume of acquisitions (Ang and Kohers,
2001, Moskowitz and Vissing-Jørgensen, 2002, Capron and Shen, 2007), relatively little
is known about its risk and return characteristics. Furthermore, unsystematic risks, the
risk perception of different cultures, and sector specific characteristics are not
adequately considered. Collecting data about this topic is challenging, since
information is not publicly available for NTAs, and private investment firms are
typically highly restrictive in providing corresponding information. Moreover, existing
literature provides limited guidance for how to deal with individual and cultural
differences in risk perceptions and risk behaviours (Hofstede, 1983, Weber and Hsee,
1998, Weber et al., 2002) within such models.

© Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2019


C. Hürlimann, Valuation of Renewable Energy Investments, Sustainable Management,
Wertschöpfung und Effizienz, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-27469-6_1
2 Introduction

Knowledge and understanding of factors influencing traditional valuations and trans-


action dynamics as well as additional complementary and/or alternative valuation
concepts may help investors in RES-E to better and more efficiently allocate their
investment budgets while improving the quality of investment decisions and
eventually decreasing the need to perform extraordinary depreciation of shares or
assets.

1.2 Scope and Framework of Research


The aims of this study are to examine and understand the risk and return components
and their trade-off in valuation as well as applied capital budgeting processes and cost
of capital (CoC) approaches. It explores decision-making mechanisms in RES-E invest-
ments to present updated conceptual frameworks, including a revised valuation
approach.

The main research questions to be explored are as follows:

x What are the risk components to be considered, and how are they prioritised,
processed, and affected within the valuation of RES-E investments? [QUAN]
x What valuation techniques are applied in RES-E investment transactions, and
what organisational characteristics influence these application choices? [QUAN]
x Why are certain methods applied in practice, and what deficiencies and
influencing factors are encountered in valuation processes within RES-E
investment transactions? [QUAL]
x How can the key equity value drivers of RES-E investments within a coherent
valuation concept be described? [INF]
x How can the relationship between risk components and investment return be
described, and how can the corresponding risk and financial performance be
assessed as a basis for developing a revised valuation model for RES-E invest-
ments? [INF]
As explained in more detail in section 4.1.1, the abbreviation QUAN stands for
quantitative research, QUAL for qualitative research, and INF for inferences while
combining the QUAN and QUAL results based on the mixed-methods research (MMR)
approach. The stated abbreviations in brackets indicate the main intended research
approach for answering the stated research question, without putting the exclusive
research focus on one of the research approaches.
Scope and Framework of Research 3

Correspondingly, the following research objectives have been formulated to provide


the foundation for the research design and guide the research process:

x To assess relevant risk components, to illustrate their prioritisation and


consideration, and to analyse potential influences in RES-E investment valuation
processes. [QUAN]
x To evaluate the valuation methods that are currently applied in RES-E invest-
ment valuations and the organisational characteristics that might affect these
processes. [QUAN]
x To understand the valuation process in practice in more detail, and to discuss
the corresponding encountered deficiencies and influencing factors (deter-
minants) in the valuation of RES-E investments [QUAL]
x To develop a model that describes the key equity value drivers of RES-E invest-
ments [INF]
x To develop a revised valuation model for RES-E investment valuation that com-
bines the risk and financial performance perspective [INF]
While answering these questions and making a contribution to both academia and
practitioners, more effective and suitable solutions are offered that are less subjective
and arbitrary in nature. An overview of the different research objectives and questions
as well as the various contributions of the applied research phases are provided in
Table 1. Details of the applied methodology follow in section 4.

The system boundaries in this research are given by the micro-economic perspective
of the research questions. The research focuses mainly on the behaviour of and
decision making within single economic units, i.e. investment companies, but not on
the detailed dynamics within investment decisions and transactions. No particular
emphasis is placed on how different political frameworks for promoting RES-E
investments influence valuation processes and techniques. The research concentrates
on the capital budgeting topics with regard to project valuation methods, risk
assessments and corresponding valuation adjustments, risk mitigation measures,
hurdle rates, and risk-adjusted return rates. Option pricing is not the focus of this
research due the research’s main emphasis on RES-E projects in low-risk environments
in terms of the operating of the project (section 2.2.4.3) and the financing structure
(section 2.4.1.3). However, there is a brief discussion about the characteristics of real
option valuations (section 2.4.2.4), since their usage has been evaluated (QUAN phase)
in order to research the whole range of possible valuation techniques. Related research
fields in valuation, including capital rationing, post audits, capital structuring, and
dividends policies, are not the primary focus in this research.
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different content
Guy Hollys' spirit was moved within him, for he was reminded of that day of sorrow many
years ago, when he had seen his young love laid to rest in the bosom of the earth. Not
many yards from where they stood, rose the marble cross which marked the place where
she slept. He led the children to the spot ere they left the churchyard.

Beryl knew it well, for Lucy had thought it right, when she was but a tiny child, to bring
her frequently to see her mother's grave. She could have repeated without looking the
words inscribed on the marble cross:—

Sacred to the Memory of


MARGARETTA HOLLYS,
the beloved wife of Guy Hollys, Esq.,
of Egloshayle House,
who died June 14, 18—, in the 20th year of her age.

"I believe in the resurrection of the body, and the life everlasting."

Often as Beryl had read these last words, she had never before desired to know their
meaning; but now, as she glanced at them, there came an eager, almost painful longing to
understand what they signified.

"Papa," she startled him by asking, "what is the resurrection; what does it mean?"

The question seemed to embarrass him. His eyes fell beneath his child's open glance; he
coloured, and his foot uneasily tapped the gravel.

"I can hardly explain it to you, child," he said. "When you are older you will understand."

"But I want to know now," said Beryl.

Her father made no reply, but turned to lead the way home. Yet he inwardly reproached
himself for having thus evaded his child's question. Could it be that Beryl knew nothing of
the truths of religion? Surely his sister might have seen that the child learned her
Catechism, and had some religious instruction.

Had her mother lived, he was certain that long ere this, Beryl would have known
something of the mysteries of life and death, as far as it was possible that they could be
explained to a child. He could fancy in what simple, tender language Margaretta would
have talked to the child, of the Lord in whom she so surely believed.

Ah! It was a great loss for poor little Beryl, the loss of a mother's love and training.

He felt himself quite unable to answer her question in a way that would be comprehensible
to her. The doctrines of Christianity, if grasped by his intellect, were not loved by his heart.
He scarcely knew how the words which had suggested her question came to be upon the
tombstone. Perhaps the rector had thought it proper that they should be added as a fitting
expression of the faith of the deceased.

"The resurrection of the body and the life everlasting." Were they verities to him? He
supposed so; he repeated the words as part of his creed whenever he went to church,
which was not every Sunday, however. But he could give no precise form to his belief.
Beryl's question had made him uncomfortably aware that he too was ignorant, and needed
teaching.
Well, he must see to it that the child had a teacher; he would enquire about a governess
when he next went to town. He blamed himself now that he had not done so before, for
was he not wronging the memory of his gentle wife, if he allowed her child to grow up
ignorant and irreligious? Had not some one said that women without religious faith were
angels who had lost their wings?

It was a true saying. Not for the world would he have his little Beryl grow up a soulless,
selfish woman, like many whom he knew. He would like her to be such a gentle, loving,
trustful woman as his dear young wife had been.

Ah, had she been spared to him, he might have been a different sort of man this day.

Beryl made no further attempt to get her question answered. She took little Coral's hand
with a protecting tenderness that was almost motherly, as they turned away from the
grave, and sadly and quietly walked home together. When they reached the house, the
children lingered for a while in the garden, for this was the first spring day, with a glorious
warmth in the sunshine and a balmy softness in the air. Primroses and crocuses decked the
garden borders; violets nestling in the shade gave their exquisite perfume to the breeze; a
few of the hardier ferns were unfurling their delicate fronds, and the fruit-trees against the
walls were bursting into blossom. The garden looked a symbol of the joyful resurrection
about which Beryl was wondering.

"Shall we go to the end of the garden," said Beryl, "and gather some violets for your
mother?"

Coral assented readily, and they were soon busy plucking the fragrant flowers.

When they had gathered all they could find, they went into the garden-house, and Beryl
showed Coral the exact spot where she had stood to watch the vessel drifting on to
Sheldon Point. So much had happened since that night that it seemed to Beryl a long way
off now, and she felt herself a much older and wiser being than the Beryl who had awaited
her father's return home with such impatient eagerness.

Presently Lucy joined them in the garden.

"Your mother is better, and would like to see you, little missy," said she to Coral; "and you
too, Miss Beryl, she would like to see," she added, looking at Beryl.

Beryl was pleased to hear this, for she had a great wish to see little Coral's mother.

They hastened back to the house, and the children would have gone at once to the sick-
room, had Lucy not checked them, and insisted on the necessity of their removing their
outdoor clothes and changing their shoes before they saw the invalid.

As they went downstairs together, hand in hand, Beryl was conscious of a strange tremor.
She had never before seen any one who was very, very ill, and she was half afraid lest
there should be anything dreadful in the sight. She stood still for a few moments at the
door of the room, and almost wished that she could go back.

But Coral opened the door, and led her in, and as they drew near the bed, Beryl's fear
vanished, for the white, worn face she saw upon the pillow had once been beautiful, and
was still pleasant to see, and the large, dark eyes, so like Coral's save for the deep sorrow
they mirrored forth, looked upon her with a tender motherly glance.

"You are my little Coral's friend," she murmured. "I have heard how good you are to her. I
thank you, my dear child, a thousand times."
Beryl could not speak; for once her usual self-possession failed her. Tears came into her
eyes at the sight of that pale, sad face; she looked down, and said nothing.

"Mamma," cried Coral, pressing forward with her flowers, "look what lovely violets we have
picked for you! Just smell how sweet they are! They all grew in the garden, every one of
them."

"My little Coral, my poor, poor Coral!" said her mother, clasping her close, and looking on
her with the glance of hungering love. "You have no father to care for you now, and I too
must soon leave you. Oh, how can I? But I must, I must."

"Oh, mamma! What do you mean! You must not go away and leave me. I cannot let you
go!" cried Coral, in great distress. "Oh, mamma! You will not go; say you will not leave
me."

"Alas, my child! I cannot help it," said her mother, in agitated tones. "The doctor has told
me he cannot save me. I am dying, I feel it. And oh, I do not want to die yet! Sad and
lonely as my life is, I would like to live a little longer for your sake, my sweet child.
Besides, death is so dark and terrible, I am afraid of it."

Here Lucy interposed, and drew the children away. "You must not distress yourself so,
madam. You must not, indeed; you will make yourself worse," she said.

As Beryl kissed Coral, and tried to soothe her grief, she felt as if she too must mourn a
mother; for with the sight of that pale, loving face, there had dawned on her mind a
sudden revelation of all that she had lost in losing her mother.

Presently Mrs. Despard asked to speak with Beryl again, and Beryl went back to the
bedside.

"What is your name, dear?" asked the invalid, looking with admiration at the tall, strong
girl.

"Beryl," she answered.

"Beryl," repeated Mrs. Despard, "a pretty name. Coral and Beryl, how well they go
together! How old are you, Beryl?"

"Ten," answered Beryl; "but I shall be eleven in June."

"Not eleven yet, and so tall and strong," said Mrs. Despard, in surprise. "Why, you are
scarcely two years older than my Coralie. And you too have lost your mother, they tell me,
my dear?"

"Yes," said Beryl, sadly; "she died when I was a baby; I never saw her."

"It was a great loss for you!" said Mrs. Despard, with a sigh, as her thoughts reverted to
her own child. "And my poor little Coral too! She must soon lose her mother. Ah, who will
care for her when I am gone?"

"I will take care of her," said Beryl boldly, for she seldom doubted her power to perform
anything that she willed. "I mean to ask papa to let her live with us, and be my little sister.
She is a dear little thing; I will always be good to her."

The pale, wasted face of the invalid flushed as she heard these words, which brought her a
sudden gleam of hope.
"Would you indeed wish that?" she asked eagerly. "But no, it could not be; your father
could not think of it."

"He would if I asked him," persisted Beryl, heedless of the fact that Lucy was frowning and
putting her finger to her lips, as a sign that she considered Miss Beryl to be talking too
fast. "At least, I am almost sure that he would; he generally does whatever I ask him."

Mrs. Despard said no more; but she seemed to be thinking of Beryl's words, for the flush
lingered on her cheeks, and her eyes had a more hopeful look as she watched the two
children.

When Lucy at last sent them from the room, Beryl left Coral to her own devices for a time,
and went in search of her father.

Greatly to her satisfaction, she found him sitting alone in the library.

"Well, Beryl, what do you want?" he said as she entered. "Where is your little playfellow?
Have you grown tired of her already?"

"Oh no, papa; she is the dearest little thing; but I am so glad to find you here alone, for I
want to have a very particular talk with you."

"What is it now, I wonder?" said her father, as he lifted her on to his knee, and began to
play with her hair.

"Papa, I have just been seeing Coral's mamma," said Beryl.

"Ah, have you?" said her father. "And how does she seem now, poor woman?"

"She looks very ill, so white and thin," said Beryl; "but I like her so much, and she spoke
to me very kindly. Do you think she is so very ill? She spoke as if she were going to die.
Do you think that can be true, papa?"

"I am afraid so," he answered. "The doctor thinks she had disease of the lungs before, and
her being so long in the water, and the fright and all her trouble, have made it develop
rapidly."

"But will it really come to that? Oh, I hope not," said Beryl, large tears gathering in her
eyes; "but if it should, papa, how sad it would be for little Coral! Her mamma cried when
she spoke of it, and so did Coral. It was so sad."

"Yes, it is very sad, my darling, very sad," said Mr. Hollys, in a low voice.

"Papa, if it should be, what would become of poor little Coral, without father or mother to
take care of her?" asked Beryl, looking straight into her father's eyes.

"I scarcely know, my dear," he answered. "I suppose we should have to send her to some
orphan asylum."

"But would she be happy there, papa?" asked Beryl.

"I suppose so," he said. "I believe the children are well cared for in those places."

"I don't believe they are happy! I should think they must feel as if they were at school,"
said Beryl, to whom school-life seemed an experience to be dreaded. "Oh, papa, cannot
you guess what I want you to do? I want you to promise that Coral shall never go away,
unless her mother should get better, and wish to take her away. I want you to say that she
may live with us always, and be my little sister."

"Well, upon my word, a slight request, truly," said Mr. Hollys. "Do you think I am such a
rich man, Beryl, that I can afford to adopt daughters upon a moment's notice?"

"You are rich, are you not, papa? And it would not cost much, I should think," said Beryl.
"Oh, papa, do not say no! I never wished for anything so much as I do for this."

"That was what you said, Beryl, when you asked me to give you a pony. You always know
how to get round me. But this is a serious matter, and I must take time to think it over. I
will do the best I can for poor little Coral, but I cannot at once promise to adopt the child."

And Beryl could get no more from her father that night. She was not without good hope of
getting her wish, however, for when her father promised to "think over" any request of
hers, he usually ended by complying with it.

CHAPTER V
BERYL HAS PERPLEXING THOUGHTS

THE next day was Sunday, and at breakfast Mr. Hollys told Beryl that he was going to
church, and would take her with him if she could be ready in time.

"May Coral go too, papa?" asked Beryl eagerly.

"Yes, I suppose so, if the child likes to go," he said, shrugging his shoulders at the idea of
his taking charge of two children; "but perhaps she would rather stay with her mother?"

And upon Lucy's being consulted, it was thought better that Coral should stay at home, so
that Mrs. Despard might have her child's company, if she wished for it.

Miss Hollys had decided that she was "not equal" to church that morning, so Beryl set out
alone with her father.

They walked through the village and up the steep road to the church. The day was bright,
and though a boisterous breeze blew from the sea, neither Beryl nor Mr. Hollys thought it
too rough. Despite the fineness of the weather, there was but a small congregation
gathered in the church, for the clergyman very old man and a dull preacher, so that most
of the fisher-folk preferred to worship in the Methodist chapel at the foot of the hill.

Beryl seldom paid much attention to the service when she was at church. She liked the
singing well enough, though it was often trying to cultivated ears, but the rest of the
service was wearisome to her. She had devised a number of little diversions for her
entertainment whilst the lessons were being read, or the sermon, which Mr. Trevor did not
attempt to deliver with expression, but read in a hurried, indistinct monotone, with the
manuscript held close to his failing eyes. Sometimes Beryl would occupy herself in
counting the tiny diamond panes in the large window opposite to her father's pew, or she
would endeavour to count the congregation, with a view to ascertaining whether there
were more men than women, or more women than men in the church. This question
decided, she would perhaps have recourse to studying the mural tablets about her, and
trying to gather from the descriptions they gave some idea of what the deceased were like
when they walked this earth. Or she would take some long word, such as remembrance or
commandment and try how many little words she could make out of the letters.

But to-day, as she sat by her father's side in the large square pew, Beryl used none of
these devices for passing away the time. Her mind was full of thoughts of Coral and her
mother, and of the sad burial in the churchyard which she had seen yesterday. Somehow
these thoughts led her to pay more attention to the service than she generally did. She
bent her head over her Prayer-book, and tried to follow the clergyman and to join with the
congregation in the responses. When the Apostles' Creed was repeated, Beryl became
aware of what she had not before observed,—the fact that the words with which the
confession of faith ended were the same as those inscribed on her mother's tombstone.
She looked up eagerly at her father as she made this discovery, and he caught the
meaning of her glance, for his thoughts too had flown to that marble cross as he repeated
the familiar words.

This incident sent Beryl wondering again about the resurrection. How she longed to know
what it meant! Was it anything very hard and difficult, she wondered?

When the text of the sermon was announced, Mr. Hollys found the place, and handed Beryl
his Bible, that she might read the words. Now Beryl often refused to read the text when
Lucy wished her to do so, but she could not behave in that way to her father; so she took
the book and slowly read the words, without in the least grasping their meaning, however.
She kept the Bible on her lap, and began carelessly turning over the leaves. Suddenly her
eye lighted on the word the meaning of which so perplexed her. What was said about it
here? The leaves had opened at the eleventh chapter of St. John's Gospel, and the words
which met her eager glance were the ever-memorable ones,—

"Jesus said unto her, 'I am the resurrection and the life.'"

Beryl was so surprised to meet with the word thus; so full of the sense that she had made
a great discovery, though a mysterious one to her, that she felt obliged to draw her
father's attention to the verse. Moving nearer to him, she touched his sleeve to attract his
attention, and then pointed to the place in the Bible. Mr. Hollys bent towards the child, and
read the words which had so surprised her. His face changed for a moment, then he
nodded and smiled, as if to intimate that he understood what, in fact, he was very far from
understanding, and turning away, looked steadfastly at the preacher, as though he were
much interested in his discourse. But, in truth, he heard scarce a word of the brief sermon,
for his mind was wholly occupied by a strange train of thought to which Beryl's action had
given rise.

Beryl was very quiet as they walked home from church. On reaching home she hastily
threw off her hat and jacket, and then went to the sick-room, where Coral was keeping her
mother company. The invalid welcomed her with a smile. The milder weather had helped
her to rally a little, though no permanent recovery was possible.

"So you have been to church, my dear," she said, looking at Beryl. "I wish you would tell
me about it. It is long since I entered a church; though I can well remember how I use to
go every Sunday with my mother when I was a girl. Did you have a nice sermon this
morning? What was the text?"
"'Jesus said, "I am the resurrection and the life,"'" repeated Beryl.

"Why, Miss Beryl, it was nothing of the kind; how can you say such a thing!" exclaimed
Lucy, who had just come in, having also attended church that morning. "The sermon was
about being subject unto the higher powers."

"Oh, was it!" said Beryl. "Well, I thought that was the text; but I remember now that papa
showed me another first, and I found that one for myself."

"'I am the resurrection and the life,'" repeated Mrs. Despard slowly. "What made you think
of those words child?"

"They are like what is written on the cross at mamma's grave," said Beryl softly. "'I believe
in the resurrection of the body, and the life everlasting.' I wish I could understand them.
What is the resurrection?"

"I think it means that the dead will be raised; that they will live again at some future
time," said Mrs. Despard; "but I do not rightly understand these things. I wish I did; for
then, perhaps, I should not be so afraid of death." She shivered as she spoke. Alas, she
knew that death was drawing near to her, and dark and terrible was the thought of
meeting that "last enemy."

"But Jesus said that He was the resurrection," said Beryl; "and Jesus was a man, was He
not?"

"Oh, Miss Beryl!" exclaimed Lucy, shocked at the irreverence of which the child in her
ignorance seemed to her to be guilty. "Surely you know better than that! Jesus was the
Son of God, 'who for us men and our salvation came down from heaven.'"

"But what does it mean about the resurrection?" persisted Beryl. "Will dead people, will my
mamma live again? Shall I see her? Do tell me, Lucy!"

"Oh, hush! Miss Beryl; you are talking too fast," said Lucy, giving a warning glance at the
bed, as she felt herself unable to answer the child's questions.

"You should ask your clergyman those questions, my dear," said Mrs. Despard, gently.

"Oh, I could not ask him anything," said Beryl emphatically.

No one spoke for some minutes after this. Beryl was disturbed by an irritating sense of
mystification. Lucy was uncomfortably conscious that she, as a good Church-woman and
regular communicant, ought to be able to give a satisfactory explanation of the truth she
professed to believe. As for the sick woman, she was as anxious as Beryl to know all that
was meant by the words the child had repeated. Coral was the only one at ease; and as
she sat on the bed close to her mother's pillow, her large dark eyes were turned on the
others with the open gaze of childish wonder.

Thus Mr. Hollys found them when he came to enquire how Mrs. Despard was.

"You are looking rather better to-day," he said to her; "do you feel so?"

"Yes, I am a little stronger," she replied; "if only my mind were at peace. I have been
thinking a great deal about my brother this morning. Do you think there is any possibility
of finding him? Although he could not forgive me, he might be kind to little Coral for my
sake."
"I do not know; but we can make enquiries," said Mr. Hollys. "I will do what I can to find
him. But make your mind easy about the child; if he does not claim her, I will be her
friend. She shall have a home here as long as she needs one."

"Oh, thank you; how good you are!" cried the poor woman, bursting into tears in her
sudden sense of relief from anxiety. "I cannot thank you as I should; but God will bless
you for your goodness to the stranger."

"No thanks are needed," he returned hastily; and without saying more, he quitted the
room, for the sight of the dying woman's emotion affected him painfully. Beryl slipped after
her father. Though he had lowered his voice in speaking to Mrs. Despard, she had heard
enough to enable her to guess what it was that he had said which gave Coral's mother
such comfort.

"Oh, papa!" she cried, as she hastened after him, "How good you are! Thank you so much
for saying that Coral may stay with us. You cannot think how glad I am."

"Not so fast, little woman," he said, smiling fondly on her; "you are taking things too much
for granted. It is by no means certain that Coral will remain here. If we find her uncle, he
will probably take charge of her."

"Then I hope he will not be found," said Beryl. "I want to keep Coral."

"Now, I wonder if I have done a very foolish thing," said Mr. Hollys to himself as he walked
away. "I fancy most people would say that I have. Well, I have committed myself now, and
must take the consequences."

But as yet he appeared to have little dread of unpleasant results, and his face did not wear
the look of a man who regretted an act of folly.

CHAPTER VI
A TALK ABOUT THE KINGDOM

IN the afternoon, when Mrs. Despard was sleeping, Lucy took the children for a walk. They
went through part of the village, and then ascended a steep hill, which led them to a
narrow winding path high above the waves, and commanding a splendid prospect of sea
and sky. Ferns and mosses grew plenteously on the landward side of this path, but its
outer edge overhung the cliff, and was unguarded, so Lucy held little Coral's hand, lest the
child should unwarily venture too near the dangerous brink. The path led to some barren
fields shelving down to the beach. Near the gate of the first field a stone bench had been
erected, which seemed to invite the passer-by to halt and admire the grand sea-view
spread before it.

When Beryl was much younger, her nurse had often brought her to this spot, and allowed
her to play at will amongst the thin grass, whilst she sat on the bench and knitted, an
occupation of which Lucy never tired. Lucy now sat down and gazed silently at the sea for
a few moments. She saw, without knowing how beautiful it was, the constant play of light
and shadow on the shimmering water, and the glorious stretch of blue sky with its snowy
clouds drifting slowly to the west.

Yet, though unconscious of the beauty about her, some of the gladness of the hour stole
into Lucy's spirit. She thought, not with shuddering horror, but with deep thankfulness for
his safety, of how nearly her brother had found his death beneath the blue waves now
dancing so joyously in the sunlight.

But Lucy could not long indulge in such musings, for Beryl was impatient to pass on
through the fields to the little pebbly cove beyond. When they reached the stile, from
which a steep, narrow path ran down to the beach, they saw, to their surprise, a little
crowd of persons standing below within the shelter of the cliff.

It was not unusual for there to be a number of boys and girls playing on the beach on a
Sunday afternoon; but though the majority were children, there were several grown-up
persons in the little company standing so quietly below.

"What are they doing, Lucy? Why do they stand there?" asked Beryl.

"Don't you see there is a gentleman talking to them, Miss Beryl?" said Lucy. "I remember
now that Joe told me there was a gentleman from London, an artist, he said he was, had
taken to preaching to the folks down here on a Sunday afternoon; but I forgot all about it
when I said we would walk this way."

"I am very glad we came," said Beryl; "let us go down and hear what he is saying."

And she started at a run down the steep path. Lucy and Coral followed more cautiously;
Lucy feeling rather doubtful of the propriety of her allowing Miss Beryl to attend "the
preaching."

But Beryl, very curious as to this unusual proceeding, pushed her way into the little crowd
gathered about the speaker. Seeing her approach, the people respectfully made place for
her, and so it happened that Beryl soon found herself close beside the gentleman, who
stood leaning against the cliff, as he spoke in simple words to his untaught, childish
audience.

Beryl liked the look of the speaker, and did not doubt his right to be called a gentleman,
though he had not the well-to-do, easy air her father always wore, and his clothes were of
poor material, and well worn. Even to the child's glance there was something beyond the
ordinary in his appearance and bearing. His face was thin, and he had the pallid
complexion which betokens delicate health. He wore his black hair rather long, and a thick,
dark beard covered his chest. His eyes were of a deep, clear grey, and had the open,
steadfast look those only have which can look beyond self, having escaped the thraldom of
personal desires and ambitions. There was a winning gentleness in the man's expression,
and though his voice was not strong, its tones went home to every heart.

"Last Sunday, my friends," he said, "we were talking together about the first petition in
that prayer which you say so often at church or chapel: 'Our Father, which art in heaven,
hallowed be Thy name.' Now, to-day I want to speak to you about the second petition of
that prayer: 'Thy kingdom come.' And first let us ask what is meant by a kingdom? What
do you understand now that a kingdom is?"

He paused and awaited an answer; but the question was a difficult one to his hearers, and
though several of the rough, honest faces before him looked thoughtful, as if they were
considering the matter, no one ventured a reply.
"We often use the word kingdom, do we not," he went on, "in speaking of the country or
countries over which a king or queen rules? We speak, for instance, of 'the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Ireland.' But the word is sometimes used to represent the power and
sovereignty of a king, and sometimes, too, it means the living beings, the human hearts
over which he reigns. Now, I think there is somewhat of all three meanings included in this
petition. 'Thy kingdom come;' whose kingdom do we mean when we say this?"

"God's," answered a young girl standing near Beryl.

"Yes, it is the kingdom of God; and what is the relation God bears to us? What were we
talking about last Sunday?"

"'Our Father, which art in heaven,'" said a sad-faced woman with a baby in her arms.

"Yes, you have given us the answer, my friend," said the speaker, looking kindly at her.
"Jesus taught us that God is our Father; so you see it is our Father's kingdom that we pray
may come. God is at once our Father and our King. Think for a moment what it is to have
a King who is our Father. I remember that when I was a boy, and had lessons to do, I was
constantly finding in my books this sentence: 'A good king is the father of his people.' Now,
that is a grand description of what a king should be, because it is founded on the Divine
idea of kingship."

"But how imperfectly can this be realised by any earthly monarch. We are proud of our
Queen Victoria, are we not? We think her one of the best of sovereigns. But it is not
possible that she can take a parent's interest in all our homely needs and daily anxieties. I
dare say that if any of the great men of her court should tell her that you fisher-folk of
Egloshayle were in sore distress from famine or fever, and needed her succour and
sympathy, her kind heart would prompt her to send immediately to your relief; but you
might suffer a thousand ills of which she would never hear."

"Not so is it with our Father-King. He is with you in your homes, and knows the weight of
each burden of care which lies so heavily on your hearts. Nothing escapes His knowledge.
He knows how you are tried when the weather makes fishing impossible, or when your
nets are lost and your boats wrecked, and the gaunt wolf of want comes nearer and nearer
to your door. Then He knows and pities, and He will send you help, if only you will trust
Him as a Father should be trusted."

"Well, it is our Father's kingdom, then, that we pray for; and if we are good and loving
children, we shall take a great interest, shall we not, in our Father's kingdom? The Prince
of Wales, your Duke of Cornwall, of whom you are proud, and all the other children of the
Queen, take a great interest in their mother's kingdom. And why? Is it not because in
being her kingdom it is also theirs? They belong to the kingdom and the kingdom belongs
to them. And so it is with us. We are not merely the subjects of God's kingdom, but the
children of that kingdom."

"That expression, 'children of the kingdom,' occurs twice in the Bible. In the first instance,
Jesus (for in both cases it is our Lord who uses this word) says, referring, it is supposed, to
the Jewish nation, 'The children of the kingdom shall be cast out into outer darkness; there
shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.' God forbid that you or I should, like those Jews,
be cast out of the kingdom as unworthy to belong to it!"

"Again, our Lord, in explaining His parable of the sower and the seed, says: 'The field is
the world; the good seed are the children of the kingdom; but the tares are the children of
the wicked one.'"
"How I wish I could persuade you, my friends, to aim at being like the good seed in this
great field in which God has placed you. Who is willing to be a child of the kingdom?"

"I am," murmured Beryl, who had been listening with intense interest to the speaker's
words. "I am willing."

The gentleman heard the child's low response. He was silent for a few minutes, and then
went on with growing earnestness:—

"I heard some one say, 'I am willing,'" he said, not looking at Beryl, but so far beyond her
that she fancied he could not know that she had said the words. "God be praised for one
willing heart! But I trust there are others amongst you ready to become children of the
kingdom; and in order that we may understand what this means, let us try to form some
idea of what the nature of this kingdom really is."

"First, let me say that it is not a kingdom of the future, but a kingdom existing now. Some
people mean heaven, the world of joy and rest, which they believe death will open to
them, when they speak of the kingdom of God."

"But God has a kingdom now, in this world, a kingdom into which we may enter if we will.
The kingdom is not yet perfected, it is true; but it is daily growing and increasing. We
cannot describe its form, for it is an invisible kingdom. Jesus said, 'The kingdom of God
cometh not with observation; neither shall they say, "Lo here!" or, "Lo there!" for behold
the kingdom of God is within you.' And St. Paul, taught of the Spirit, said, 'The kingdom of
God is not meat and drink; but righteousness and peace, and joy in the Holy Ghost.'"

"Now do you begin to see something of what the kingdom is? The realm over which our
Father would reign is the hearts of men. It is His by right; He is its lawful ruler; but He
desires to win its loving submission. Wherever there is a heart bowing to the will of its
Father, striving to do His will, struggling to live worthy of its Divine birth, there is the
kingdom of heaven. The Lord Jesus Christ is the door into that kingdom. The man who,
loving Christ, tries to follow His example, living a true, pure, honest life, working his
hardest when work is to hand, and trusting his Father without grumbling when times are
bad, is a child of the kingdom."

"The woman who does her lowly household work as to the Lord, loving her husband, caring
for her children, keeping her home clean and bright, and living peaceably with her
neighbours, is a child of the kingdom. The boy or girl who tries to be like the child Jesus,
obedient, gentle, loving, making the sunshine of glad smiles and the music of happy voices
in this sad earth, is a child of the kingdom."

The gentleman ceased speaking, and looked with searching, though kindly glances at the
people standing about him. Many had listened only with idle wonder; but on some few his
words had made a deep impression.

These now moved forward to shake hands with him and utter their rough but hearty
thanks. Beryl remained beside the gentleman, although she was aware that Lucy, who had
lingered on the outskirts of the crowd, was beckoning to her to come away.

Beryl was determined that she would not move till she had spoken to the stranger, and
perhaps asked him the question she was so anxious to have answered.
CHAPTER VII
BERYL GAINS A FRIEND

BERYL had to wait for some minutes before she could speak to the stranger, whose words
had so interested her.

The gentleman was not unaware of the little figure waiting patiently beside him; but many
persons were just then claiming his attention, and he thought it best not to speak to the
child till he was at leisure to hear all that she might have to say. One by one the strange
congregation dispersed, and, having said the last good-bye, he turned to meet Beryl's
upturned glance.

"Well, my dear," he said, noting with pleasure the pretty flushed face and soft blue eyes of
the child; "I saw you listening to me just now. What is your name, if you do not mind
telling me?"

"Beryl Hollys. We live at Egloshayle House. I dare say you know my papa," said Beryl,
displaying some consciousness of her own importance.

"Yes, I have heard of your father since I have been at Egloshayle," the stranger replied.
"So your name is Beryl—a precious stone. Well, my child, you must make your name good.
You must be a precious stone in the living temple. I heard you say you were willing to be a
child of the kingdom."

"Yes, if I can be; but I do not know how," said Beryl.

"No one can more easily enter the kingdom, my child. The kingdom is yours. Don't you
remember that Jesus said, 'Suffer little children to come unto Me, and forbid them not, for
of such is the kingdom of heaven'? You have only to come to Jesus."

Beryl knew the words well. Lucy had taught them to her when she was a little girl; but now
they seemed to her quite new, as their meaning suddenly flashed upon her mind.

"But how can I come?" she said.

"My child, you can come to Jesus at any moment. He is ever near you. He loves you even
better than your father does. You can lift your heart to Him, and tell Him you will be His."

"But," said Beryl, with a touch of impatience in her tone, "there are so many things I want
to know, and I have no one to tell me. I want to know what the resurrection means. I
asked papa, but he only said I should understand when I was older. But I want to
understand now."

The gentleman looked at her in surprise.

"What set you thinking about the resurrection, my dear?" he asked.

"It is on mamma's grave," said Beryl, "'I believe in the resurrection of the body, and the
life everlasting.'"

"Ah, to be sure," he replied, "I remember seeing those words in the churchyard. And that
was your mother's grave, my little friend? You want to know what that long word
resurrection means?"
"Yes; will you tell me?" asked Beryl eagerly, sure that he could tell her, if only he would.

The gentleman was silent for a minute, thinking how he could put in simplest words what
he knew of the great mystery of the resurrection.

"Beryl," he said gently, "do you know that Jesus said, 'I am the resurrection and the life;
he that believeth in Me, though he were dead, yet shall he live; and whosoever liveth and
believeth in Me shall never die'?"

"Yes," said Beryl, "I know; I found those words in the Bible."

"Well, my child, that word resurrection means life from the dead, a returning from the
grave, as it were."

"But no one ever does return from the grave," said Beryl, her face full of wonder and awe.

"Jesus returned from the grave," said her new friend. "Do you not remember? You know
that Jesus died?"

"Yes," said Beryl softly; "He was God's Son, and He died on the cross."

"And after He was dead they laid Him in the grave, a grave made in the rock, and a great
stone was rolled to the mouth of the grave to make it secure. But Jesus could not be the
prisoner of death. The Lord of Life rose from the dead, and when the women who loved
Him came to weep beside the grave, they found the stone rolled away, and the place
where He had lain empty. Then Jesus appeared to Mary and the other disciples, the very
same Jesus whom they had known and loved and mourned as dead. And the disciples were
glad when they saw the Lord, and knew that He had conquered death. And so Jesus is the
Resurrection, the Life from the Dead, because having conquered Death Himself, He can
promise the same victory to all who trust in Him. He has the keys of Death. Our dead are
in His keeping, and He will raise them up at the last day. Can you understand me, my
child?"

"Yes, I think so," said Beryl, but still looking puzzled. "But where do people go when they
die? Where is my mamma? Where is Coral's papa?"

"Many have asked such questions as those, my child, but they cannot yet be answered; we
must wait for fuller knowledge. All we know is that our dead have passed into a region
which is under the control of Christ. They are safe in His keeping. His voice it was which
called them from earth, and His voice it is which will call them forth on the morning of the
resurrection. 'Them also which sleep in Jesus will God bring with Him.'"

"But when will that be?" asked Beryl.

"We know not. The Lord has not revealed the time of His appearing; only we must seek to
be ready for His coming," said the stranger. "But I am afraid I am keeping you too long,
my child. Is that your nurse who is beckoning to you so energetically?"

"Yes, that is Lucy," said Beryl; "and Coral is with her. Won't you come and speak to Coral?"

"Who is Coral?" asked the gentleman. "Your little sister?"

"Oh no," said Beryl quickly; "but she is going to live with me, and be like my little sister."

And then, in hurried words, she told the story of the shipwreck—of Coral's and her
mother's rescue—and of her father's sad fate.
The gentleman listened with interest to the child's account, though he had already heard
all particulars of the shipwreck. Then, pitying the impatience which Lucy manifested, he
crossed the beach to where she and Coral stood, and proposed that as he was about to
return to the village, they should all walk back together.

The children were very pleased with their new companion, and chattered fast to him as
they passed through the fields. When they reached the stone bench at the top of the hill,
the gentleman paused and looked round.

"Look, children," he said, and they all turned to look.

The sight was indeed worth a long gaze. The sun was sinking in the west, and its crimson
light flushed the water. A bank of purple clouds lay on the horizon, and where they parted
the ruddy rays broke forth in glorious beauty. The whole sky caught the illumination, and
the tiny clouds which floated overhead were of a delicate rose-colour.

"How pretty the sky is!" said little Coral. "It was often like that when we were in the ship.
Papa used to take me on deck to look at it."

"It will be a fine day to-morrow," said Lucy; "it always is when the sun goes down red."

Beryl said nothing, but gazed in silence on the beauty of the sky. She could not have
explained what she thought of it, but somehow, in the child's mind, the glory of that
sunset was entwined with her idea of the kingdom of heaven. It was indeed a symbol of
the happy death unto sin and new birth unto righteousness by which we enter into the
kingdom of God.

They watched till the sun sank into his grave, which yet was no grave, and the pink clouds
grew grey in the fading light. Then Lucy and Coral went on, and Beryl and her new friend
followed. When they reached the village street, he said he must bid her good-bye.

"But I shall see you again some day, shall I not?" asked Beryl wistfully.

"Yes, my child, I hope so. I shall be at Egloshayle a few weeks longer; and, Beryl, if your
father should wish to know my name, you can tell him I am David Gilbank, and I am
staying at the Blue Anchor for a while, in order to do some sketching."

"David Gilbank," said Beryl. "Yes, I shall not forget. Good-bye."

And she bounded away to overtake Lucy, eager to tell her father, or any one who would
listen to her, of the new friend she had gained. But her father was not to be found when
she reached home, and she learned, to her vexation, that he had gone out.

Miss Hollys, as usual at that hour, was reclining on the sofa in the drawing-room; but when
Beryl burst in, eager to tell all that had happened, her aunt, annoyed at her intrusion,
showed no sympathy for the enthusiasm with which Beryl spoke of her new friend.

She chose to consider it an occasion for fault-finding, and scolded Beryl for being so ready
to make acquaintance with an utter stranger, who was not likely to prove a desirable
person to know.

Beryl received her aunt's rebukes more patiently than was her wont. The recollection of
her resolve to be a child of the kingdom helped her to refrain from a rude and angry retort.

Later in the evening, when the children went to Mrs. Despard's room to bid her good-night,
Beryl found the sympathy for which she longed.
Mrs. Despard was sitting up, and looking much better, Beryl thought, because a bright
crimson spot burnt in each cheek, and her eyes were large and brilliant. She began to
question the children about their walk, and soon heard all that Beryl could tell her of the
stranger whose name was David Gilbank.

"I wish you could have heard what he said," the child cried eagerly; "he was speaking
about the kingdom of God, and oh! He made it all so plain—how God is our Father and our
King, and we must all be children of the kingdom. And I am going to be a child of the
kingdom; I said that I would!"

"Ah, it is easy for the young," sighed Mrs. Despard; "but I have never thought much of
religion, and now I fear the door of that kingdom is closed against me."

"But Jesus is the door," said Beryl. "David Gilbank said so; he told me to come to Jesus,
who said,—'Suffer little children to come unto Me.' But then you are not a little child; I
forgot that. I don't know what you must do."

"No, I do not know what I can do," was the sad response.

"But the kingdom is for men and women too. He said that; so I do not see why you should
not come, although you are not a little child," observed Beryl. "If I were you, I should ask
Jesus to let me in."

"Should you?" said the poor woman, wistfully.

"Yes; and oh, I asked him the meaning of the resurrection!" exclaimed Beryl eagerly. "And
he explained it all so nicely. But I am afraid I cannot tell you properly what he said.
Resurrection means rising from the dead; and as Jesus rose from the dead, so all those
who trust in Him shall be raised up at last, although they are dead. But it is very difficult to
understand, only it is plain that when we die we shall go to Jesus, and He will take care of
us; so you see that there is nothing really to be afraid of in dying."

"Ah, child, it is easy to say so," said Mrs. Despard mournfully; "but I have been such a
sinner. I cannot expect that the Lord would receive me."

"But I thought Jesus died for every one, whether they were sinners or not," said Beryl,
looking puzzled; "and if any one can go into the kingdom, you can. You've only got to ask
Jesus."

How straight to the point went the childish words! Long after Beryl had left her, the sick
woman lay pondering them, and adding to them all that she could recollect of what she
had learned in her childhood about the Saviour of the world, who by His death upon the
cross and His glorious resurrection has redeemed us from the power of sin and death.

When Lucy came in, Mrs. Despard asked her for a Bible, and from that time, as her
strength permitted, she daily studied the sacred Book, and by the power of the Holy Spirit,
its words brought her life and peace. As she read of Him who is the Way, the Truth, and
the Life, and who died to save His people from their sins, and deliver them from the fear of
death, her spirit grew calm and restful. She looked no longer on her sins, but on the Lamb
of God, who had taken them away. She could trust in God her Saviour, and trusting in Him
with childlike faith, death was robbed of its sting and the grave of its terrors.

Some days passed ere Beryl again saw her friend David Gilbank, for a sudden change in
the weather made it unpleasant to saunter on the beach, and quite impossible to sketch in
the open air. The advance of spring was checked by biting east winds, which brought
showers of sleet and even a slight snowstorm in their train. In place of the bright and
joyous Easter which every one had expected, came a cold, inclement season, which would
have seemed like Christmas but for the opening buds, and the primroses and violets,
which smiled in the face of the cold wind, as if confident that its triumph would be of short
duration, and sunshine and beauty would conquer in the end.

To the invalid's failing strength, the cold, raw weather struck a fatal blow. There was a
rapid change for the worse, and she sank so low that the doctor gave warning that death
might come at any hour.

On Easter Sunday, Beryl went with her father to church, but Coral was left at home in
Lucy's care. The day was cold and showery, but every now and then the sun broke through
the clouds, and smiled an assurance of better things to come. Beryl watched with pleasure
the gleams of sunlight which from time to time lit up the diamond-paned windows, and
sent bright shafts of light athwart the dusky old church. She was pleased to see Mr.
Gilbank at church. He was looking pale and ill, and was much wrapped up, for the east
winds had their perils for him.

Beryl drew her father's attention to the artist, and looked forward to speaking to him when
the service ended.

Beryl was able heartily to enjoy that Sunday morning service. The solemn, sweet anthem,
the bright, exultant hymns stirred the child's heart. She knew now the significance of
Easter Day, with its joyful recognition of a risen Lord. She had learned the meaning of the
long word which had puzzled her, and, however faint and imperfect the child's ideas of the
resurrection may have been, doubtless she, in her childish simplicity, came nearer to the
truth than many of the wise and prudent.

David Gilbank was in the porch as they went out of church, and Beryl addressed him
eagerly, and hastened to make her father acquainted with her new friend. Mr. Hollys spoke
cordially to the artist, and invited him to come some day to Egloshayle House to see some
pictures of which their owner was rather proud.

Beryl was not allowed to go into the sick-room when she returned from church. Mrs.
Despard was too ill to see her, Lucy said. But when bed-time came, she as well as Coral
was allowed to go into the room to say good-night to the weary sufferer. Even to Beryl's
eyes it was clear that a strange, indescribable change had come over the colourless,
wasted face. And it was not good-night but good-bye she said to the children, clinging to
her poor little Coral with a passionate tenderness which brought tears to the eyes of all
who witnessed the farewell.

Some hours later Beryl awoke from her first sleep' to find a candle burning in the room,
and Lucy standing by Coral's bed with red eyes and tear-stained cheeks.

"What is the matter, Lucy?" she asked, springing up. "Is Coral's mamma worse?"

"She is gone, poor lady," said Lucy, wiping her eyes; "she passed away in her sleep as
gently as possible, and now she looks so peaceful and happy."

"Oh, Lucy, do you mean that she is dead?" said Beryl, in a tone of awe and sorrow.

"Yes, Miss Beryl, it is true; her troubles are over now; but don't make a noise and wake
Miss Coral; she will know soon enough, poor dear."

Beryl covered her face with the bed-clothes, and cried bitterly at the thought of little
Coral's loss. It seemed so sad and dark and terrible. But even as she cried, and thought of
the dark grave and the lonely, motherless life, there came to her mind, with some sense of
comfort, the words they had sung that morning in church—

"Jesus lives! Henceforth is death


But the gate of life immortal;
This shall calm our trembling breath,
When we pass its gloomy portal."

CHAPTER VIII
THE FIRST QUARREL

A FORTNIGHT after Mrs. Despard's death, Mr. Hollys went to London. The children seemed
already to have forgotten their experience of earth's darkest shadow. May dawned so fresh
and beautiful, that it was impossible for thoughts of sorrow to dwell in their childish hearts.

It was delightful to pass the sunny mornings on the beach, hunting for shells and seaweed,
or raising with their spades castles or embankments, which the incoming tide always swept
away. It was warm enough now for Beryl to commence the bathing which she so
thoroughly enjoyed. Beryl's swimming seemed to Coral a wonderful performance. She did
not soon forget the fright Beryl gave her on the morning on which they first ventured into
the water.

"Look, Coral; see what I am going to do!" exclaimed Beryl, as she waded through the
shallow waves towards a rock, which rose high out of the water.

On the other side of the rock, the waves were running high. Coral watched Beryl
wonderingly as she scrambled up the great rocks, and stood on the top, looking a strange
little figure in her pretty scarlet bathing-dress. Coral laughed and clapped her hands to see
her perched there; but her laugh changed to a cry of horror, as she saw Beryl suddenly
raise her hands high above her head, and, springing forward, plunge headlong into the
waves surging around the rock.

Coral screamed with fear, as her friend disappeared from view. She felt certain that Beryl
would be drowned.

"Don't be frightened, my dear," cried Lucy's voice from the shore; "that's only one of Miss
Beryl's venturesome tricks. She's safe enough, for she can swim like a fish. Master had her
taught when she was quite a little girl. Look! There she is again."

And Coral's fears were allayed by seeing Beryl's head appear above the water, and hearing
her laugh merrily as she shook the water from her eyes and head.

"You little goose! Did you think I was drowned?" she cried. "Look how well I can swim.
Come, Coral, I will teach you to swim."

But Coral was cold and nervous, and felt no desire for a swimming lesson.
"I don't want to learn," she said. "I am tired of being in the water; I shall go in."

"Oh, you can't think of going in yet," cried Beryl, who was warmed and exhilarated by her
exercise; "you have been in the water no time. Come, let me dip you."

But Coral screamed and drew back as Beryl laid rather rough hands on her. Beryl, little
used to having her will opposed, lost her temper at this, and the children, who up to this
time had agreed most charmingly, now began to quarrel.

"You silly little thing," said Beryl, in a tone of contempt, "I do believe you are frightened. I
would not be such a coward for something. There, go along with you; I don't want your
company."

Coral ran sobbing to Lucy, and Beryl swam leisurely round the rock, and tried to believe
that she was enjoying herself very much. But in truth she was feeling too angry with Coral
to be very happy.

"Coral was a silly, cross, disagreeable little thing," she said to herself again and again, not
being at all willing to acknowledge that she too had been cross and disagreeable.

"How could you be so unkind to Miss Coral?" said Lucy, when Beryl at length came out of
the water, and went into the garden-house to be dressed. "The poor child has been
sobbing like to break her heart. I wonder at you, Miss Beryl, treating a poor little
motherless girl like that!"

Now, Beryl was already beginning to feel ashamed of herself, but she was not willing to
acknowledge this to Lucy. At her nurse's words her heart grew hard again.

"I don't care," she said defiantly. "Coral was much more cross than I was. She is a horrid
little thing."

"Well, I never! Miss Beryl!" exclaimed Lucy, lifting up her hands in astonishment. "And to
think how anxious you were to have her for a little sister. No one would have thought, to
hear you talk of her then, that you would so soon behave badly to her."

Beryl made no reply; her face wore a sullen, proud look, which it was not pleasant to see.
When she was dressed, she went down to the beach again. Coral had ceased to cry, and
was playing there very contentedly.

Beryl passed her without vouchsafing her even a look, and went to some rocks at a little
distance, where she sat down and stared sulkily at the sea. Beryl was quite conscious of
her own naughtiness, but felt disposed to encourage it and prolong it as much as possible.

Presently Coral, finding it dull to play alone, came timidly to the place where Beryl sat.

"Beryl," she said, trying to appear oblivious of past occurrences, "won't you come and play
with me?"

For a moment Beryl felt inclined to dismiss her vexation and yield to Coral's wish, but pride
and ill-temper reasserted themselves.

"No," she said crossly; "I don't care to play with a stupid little thing like you. You can go
away."

"You ought not to call me stupid," replied Coral, her dark eyes flashing angrily; "you are a
bad girl."
And she raised her hand and struck Beryl.

The blow did not hurt Beryl in the least, but in her present mood it was more than her
pride could endure.

"How dare you!" she cried, turning upon Coral, with her face aglow with passion, and
giving the child such a violent push as made her fall with her face on the rough stones.

Beryl did not wait to see if Coral were hurt, but ran off at full speed along the beach, as if
anxious to get as far away as possible. But run as fast as she might, Beryl could not
escape from the evil self which was the source of her unhappiness. She came to a sudden
halt as she caught sight of a distant figure seated in a quiet nook amongst the rocks, with
easel and paint-box at hand. She had no inclination now to bound forward to greet the
artist. She fancied that Mr. Gilbank would be able to read in her face the secret of her
naughtiness. The very sight of him had the force of a silent reproach.

Hoping that he had not seen her, Beryl turned back, and began slowly to climb one of the
many zigzag paths leading to the top of the cliff. Half-way up, she paused, and stood
looking down on the beach. She was anxious to see Coral, but the child was not in sight.

It was lovely to watch the blue, foam-crested waves breaking on the stones, to gaze
across the beautiful bay, or at the pure white clouds sailing slowly overhead; but these
things were lost upon Beryl. Conscience was awake now, and her unhappiness had taken a
new and better shape.

The sight of Mr. Gilbank had reminded her of her resolve to be a child of the kingdom, and
she felt that she had miserably failed. She saw her conduct in its true light, and wondered
to think how easily she had given way to bad temper. How could she behave so crossly to
poor little Coral, who had lost both her father and mother, and had no one else to love her!
She had meant to be so tender and loving, and to act the part of a good, wise, elder sister
to the child. Beryl really loved Coral, and she now felt heartily sorry and ashamed to think
how she had treated her. She began to fear that Coral must have been very much hurt by
that fall on the sharp stones.

She longed to go in search of her and ask her forgiveness, yet she shrank from doing so.
How could she bear it if she found Coral suffering greatly from the effects of her violence?

The more Beryl thought of all that had happened, the more uneasy she became. At last
she turned to the best source of comfort for our troubles, whether they spring from sin or
not. There is but one voice that can absolve from sin, and one Friend whose sympathy can
reach every sorrow. When Beryl had told her sin and sorrow in the ear of that Friend, she
felt calmer, and started off, determined to lose no time in finding Coral and telling her how
sorry she was that she had been so cross.

She ran down to the beach, and hastened in the direction of home, looking everywhere for
Coral; but the child was not to be seen. Once or twice Beryl called her name, thinking that
Coral might be hiding amongst the rocks; but no answer came, and she hurried on with a
vague sense of fear. Coral was not at the end of the beach, where she had left her, and
Beryl ran up the steps into the garden, hoping to find her there. But no; the garden paths
were quiet and deserted; and, feeling more and more frightened, Beryl hastened into the
house, and ran upstairs to the nursery, meeting no one by the way.

The nursery was empty, but the door of the adjoining room, in which the children slept,
stood ajar, and something prompted Beryl to peep inside. She started and trembled greatly
to see Coral lying on her little bed, looking very pale, with closed eyes, and a white
bandage on her forehead. For a few moments Beryl scarcely dared to move, so alarmed
was she. Then she ventured to creep nearer; but as she did so, Beryl saw to her horror
that there was blood upon the handkerchief which bound Coral's forehead. The sight was
too much for Beryl's self-control, and she uttered a sharp cry of distress. At the sound
Coral's eyes opened, and she looked up at Beryl with a dazed, bewildered glance.

"Oh, Coral, Coral!" sobbed Beryl, quite overcome by emotion. "I thought I had killed you!
What is the matter with your forehead? Is it very bad?"

"The stones cut it," said Coral, "and it bled so, and I was frightened, and cried, so Lucy
carried me in and put me to bed. She said I had better try and go to sleep, and I think I
have been asleep."

"Oh, I am so sorry, Coral," said Beryl; "I can't think how I could be so horrid to you. I can
never forgive myself for knocking you down and hurting you so."

"Don't cry, Beryl; it is better now," said the child; "it only smarts a little."

"I was a cross, bad thing," said Beryl; "can you forgive me, Coral?"

"Oh yes, of course I forgive you," said Coral readily; "please do not cry any more."

But Beryl's tears burst forth anew as she stooped to kiss Coral. She hardly left Coral's side
for the rest of the day, and tried by loving words and actions to atone for her previous
unkindness.

Beryl did not soon forget the lesson she had learned. Though the cut on Coral's forehead
soon began to heal, its scar lingered for many a day to remind Beryl of her ill-temper and
its consequences. This, their first quarrel, was also the last serious disagreement which the
children had.

When Beryl was tempted to give way to passion and pride, she remembered the misery
she had endured that day on the beach, and tried to check her anger, and show the loving,
forgiving spirit of a true child of the kingdom.

After this, the days passed very pleasantly with the two little people. As spring grew into
summer they took long walks and rides along the shore, or they explored the beautiful
woods lying beyond the village.

Andrew was very pleased when he could find leisure to accompany the young ladies, and
lead the pony whilst they rode by turns. In this way, they were able to go a good distance,
and they generally came back from these excursions laden with ferns and wild flowers.

Sometimes Lucy would get her brother to take them for a row in his boat, a treat which
the children thoroughly enjoyed. Beryl planned how, when she was a little older, she would
get her father to give her a boat of her own, which she would learn to row her very self.

Once Mr. Gilbank joined them in one of their boating excursions, and his presence added
greatly to the children's pleasure, for he talked to them and told them stories as they
sailed over the bright rippling water.

The children saw a good deal of the artist in those days; they often sat by his side on the
beach whilst he painted. Their presence did not disturb him, and he was never too busy to
answer the questions they asked.
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