INTERVIEW 1 (Invested in Markets)

Name: Mr. Vipul Halbe

Simran: So, Vipul, let’s start with the basics. What got you interested in the stock market?
Vipul: Honestly, it was the idea of making money. The stock market presented itself as an
avenue where capital could grow exponentially, and the notion of compounding intrigued me.
But over time, I realized that wealth creation isn’t just about making quick profits; it’s about
having a long-term strategy. This perspective was influenced by reading Benjamin Graham’s
The Intelligent Investor, where he emphasized the importance of value investing and the
margin of safety.
Simran: That’s fascinating. How did you start trading in the initial stages? Did you have a
particular approach?
Vipul: In the beginning, I relied heavily on brokerage platforms like ICICI Direct. My trades
were largely driven by broker recommendations, and I didn’t fully grasp the importance of
doing my own due diligence. It was more of a speculation phase. As Warren Buffett says,
“Investing without understanding is like playing poker without looking at the cards.” That
summed up my early days—blind reliance on tips rather than informed decisions.
Simran: Do you remember your first major gain or loss? How did that shape your future
decisions?
Vipul: Oh, yes! My first major gain came from Vodafone Idea; it gave me a euphoric sense of
validation. But then came my loss with Big Bazaar, and that was a turning point. This
experience taught me the risk of speculative trades and over-reliance on recommendations.
The loss drove me to adopt fundamental analysis—studying financial statements, earnings
reports, and understanding intrinsic value—a concept deeply rooted in Benjamin Graham’s
philosophy of value investing.
Simran: Has your philosophy around buying and selling stocks changed since then?
Vipul: Definitely. Earlier, my decisions were influenced by market trends and herd mentality.
Now, I’ve transitioned to a hybrid approach: fundamental analysis helps me identify
undervalued stocks, while technical analysis, using tools like RSI and MACD, determines
entry and exit points. It’s a combination of value investing and a modern, data-driven trading
approach. The idea of “latticework of mental models” also plays a big role—I integrate
economic, psychological, and technical perspectives to make well-rounded decisions.
Simran: Have you ever made an impulsive decision and regretted it?
Vipul: Yes, I’ll admit to that. Once, I impulsively bought Vodafone Idea stocks again, swayed
by a broker’s pitch. It wasn’t grounded in research, and I regretted it deeply. Since then, I’ve
refined my process, ensuring every trade is backed by fundamental and technical validation.
Simran: Markets can be pretty emotional at times. How do you handle biases like fear or
greed during volatile conditions?
Vipul: Emotional control is critical. Greed often tempts you to hold beyond reasonable limits,
while fear pushes you to sell prematurely. I counteract these biases with disciplined technical
analysis. For instance, if the RSI indicates an overbought condition, I sell regardless of greed.
Similarly, fear is mitigated by understanding market cycles.
Simran: Research must play a big role in your trading. How much time do you dedicate to it?
Vipul: A significant amount. I dedicate hours each day to analyzing stocks. Fundamental
analysis includes assessing P/E ratios, free cash flow, and debt-to-equity ratios. I also use
technical indicators like moving averages and Bollinger Bands for timing. Risk comes from
not knowing what you’re doing. Research reduces risk by ensuring I’m making informed
decisions.
Simran: Overconfidence can sometimes cloud judgment. How do you avoid that?
Vipul: Overconfidence is a common pitfall. I’ve learned to trust data, not gut feelings.
Indicators like RSI act as a reality check, ensuring I don’t overestimate my ability to predict
market movements. I’ve built a system that’s bigger than my own biases. Following this
system keeps me grounded.
Simran: Market noise is everywhere. How do you filter it out and focus on genuine signals?
Vipul: Market noise can be misleading. I’ve developed a filter based on correlation: if the
news doesn’t align with my fundamental or technical analysis, I disregard it. Focus on the
data that matters and ignore the rest.
Simran: Have you ever held onto a losing stock longer than you should have?
Vipul: Yes, Laurus Labs is a prime example. I held onto it longer than warranted, influenced
by market chatter rather than analysis. Now, I’m more vigilant and rely on stop-loss
mechanisms to enforce discipline.
Simran: How about herd mentality? How do you resist following what others are doing?
Vipul: I trust my analysis. If my research tells me to hold when everyone else is selling, I
hold. In fact, I often take a contrarian approach—buying when others are selling and vice
versa—when it aligns with my strategy.
Simran: Do you ever reflect on past trades and feel hindsight bias creeping in?
Vipul: It does happen. I sometimes catch myself thinking, "I should have done this or that."
But I’ve learned to let it guide me rather than weigh me down. For example, I now prioritize
securing a smaller profit over risking it all by holding too long. Learning from past errors is
invaluable.
Simran: Staying disciplined must be challenging. How do you avoid acting on short-term
impulses?
Vipul: Discipline comes from having a robust framework. Technical indicators like RSI and
MACD help me make decisions devoid of emotional interference. This aligns with the stoic
philosophy of focusing on what you can control and ignoring external chaos.
Simran: What about confirmation bias? How do you ensure you’re not just seeking
information that aligns with your views?
Vipul: I cross-check my analysis with diverse sources—industry reports, YouTube channels,
and forums. If my findings align with others, it boosts my confidence. If not, I reevaluate my
stance. I actively seek dissenting opinions. This mirrors Munger’s “invert, always invert”
approach—examining problems from multiple angles to ensure sound decisions.
Simran: Has loss aversion ever stopped you from making a profitable trade?
Vipul: Yes, it has. With Waaree Renewables, I hesitated to sell even when technical
indicators suggested it. While I still made a profit, it wasn’t maximized. This experience
reinforced the importance of following data, not emotions.
Simran: How do you separate rational decisions from emotional reactions?
Vipul: By sticking to my process. Fundamental and technical analyses act as my guardrails,
ensuring my decisions are data-driven rather than emotionally influenced. I anchor my
decisions in analysis. Fundamental and technical insights act as a buffer against emotional
impulses. Patience and logic go hand in hand.
Simran: How has your approach to risk-taking evolved over the years?
Vipul: In the beginning, I took uncalculated risks based on broker advice, which I later
realized could be biased. Now, I assess risk and make informed, calculated decisions. Howard
Marks’ emphasis on second-level thinking has also influenced me—considering what’s priced
in and what’s not.
Simran: Do you follow any checklists or frameworks for logical decision-making?
Vipul: Absolutely. My checklist includes analyzing financial statements, balance sheets, and
cash flow trends over five years. This structured approach ensures that logic, not emotion,
drives my trades. This systematic approach ensures decisions are grounded in logic. It’s
inspired by Atul Gawande’s The Checklist Manifesto—simple tools can prevent complex
errors.
Simran: What’s the biggest lesson you’ve learned from your investing journey?
Vipul: The most important lesson is to treat investing like owning a business. You need to
monitor the company’s performance closely and not let emotions cloud your judgment. If a
company underperforms, sell and move on. Another lesson I learnt is to think like a business
owner. Stocks aren’t just ticker symbols; they’re ownership stakes in companies. Monitoring
performance and making unemotional decisions is key. Know what you own, and know why
you own it.
Simran: Lastly, what keeps you motivated to stay in the stock market?
Vipul: Initially, it was just about making a profit. But now, I enjoy the process—analyzing
companies, participating in shareholder decisions, and being part of the growth story. It’s
become much more than just a financial pursuit for me.