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Maths Project (V)

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18 views14 pages

Maths Project (V)

Uploaded by

sufiyansharief22
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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“PROBABILITY”

A PROJECT REPORT ON MATHS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULLFILLMENT OF THE


REQUIREMENT FOR THE COMPLETION OF AISSCE 2024-25

BY

THARUN V

UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF

MR Madhu

MATHS

SJES CENTRAL SCHOOL

CBSE affiliation no.830258

Old madras Road

Virgonagar,Medahalli,Bengaluru-560049
CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project work titled


“Probability”
Is record of original work done by THARUN V with
registration number ……………... under my
supervision and guidance. The Principal Teacher in
charge Submitted for Practical Examination held on
____________________
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my special thanks of gratitude to


My teacher “MR Madhu” as well as our principal Mrs.G KAVITHA Who
gave me the golden opportunity to do this wonderful project on the topic
“PROBABILITY” which also helped me in doing a lot of research and I
came to know about so many new things I am really thankful to them.

Secondly I would like to thank my parents and friends who helped me a


lot in finalizing this project within the limited time frame.
SIGNATURE:

NAME:
INDEX:-

1) Introduction
2) History
3) Theory
4) Formulas
5) Application of probability
INTRODUCTION:-
Probability is a branch of mathematics that plays a
pivotal role in our understanding of uncertainty and
randomness. It is the study of the likelihood of
events occurring, ranging from simple everyday
occurrences, such as flipping a coin, to complex
systems, such as predicting weather patterns or
assessing financial risks. Rooted in the principles of
logic and empirical observation, probability
provides a framework for making informed
decisions in the face of uncertainty. Its applications
extend across various fields, including science,
engineering, medicine, and social sciences, where it
aids in quantifying risk, optimizing processes, and
uncovering patterns in seemingly random
phenomena. By exploring the foundational
concepts of probability, we gain valuable insights
into how to analyze and interpret the uncertain
world around us.

HISTORY:-
 The history of probability traces its roots back
to ancient civilizations, where early concepts of
chance and randomness emerged in games of
luck and fortune-telling practices. However, it
was not until the 16th and 17th centuries that
probability began to develop as a formal
mathematical discipline.
 The formal study of probability began with the
correspondence between “Blaise Pascal” and
“Pierre de Fermat” in the 1650s. Their
discussions on problems in gambling led to the
development of fundamental principles, such as
the concept of expected value. Around the
same time, “Christiaan Huygens” published one
of the earliest treatises on probability, “De
Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae” (1657), which
systematically addressed games of chance.

 During the 18th century, “Jakob Bernoulli” and


“Abraham de Moivre”. Contributed
significantly.

 In the 19th century, probability became


intertwined with statistics, Contributions from
mathematicians like “Carl Friedrich Gauss”,
“Pierre-Simon Laplace”, further solidified the
field.

 The modern times saw axiomatization of


probability by “Andrey Kolmogorov” in his work
“Grundbegriffe der”
THEORY:-
Experiment: A situation or process that leads
to an outcome. For example, tossing a coin or
rolling a die.
Sample Space (S): The set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment. For example,
when flipping a coin, the sample space is
{Heads, Tails}.
Event (E): A specific outcome or set of
outcomes within the sample space. For
example, getting "Heads" in a coin flip is an
event.
Probability (P): The likelihood of an event
occurring. It's a number between 0 and 1,
where:
o P(E)=0 means the event will not occur.

o P(E)=1 means the event is certain to occur.

o 0< P(E)<1 indicates a probability

somewhere between impossible and


certain.
The Probability of an Event:
The probability of an event E can be calculated
using the formula:
 P(E)= number of possible outcome
number of total outcomes
Types of probability:

 Classical Probability: Based on the


assumption that all outcomes are equally
likely
 Empirical (or Experimental)
Probability: Based on observed data or
experiments.
 Subjective Probability: Based on
personal judgment or experience, such as
predicting the likelihood of rain tomorrow
FORMULAS:-
The various fundamental formulas used in
probability are:
Addition formula: For two events A and B, the
probability that either event occurs is
P(A or B)=P(A) + P(B) + P(A and B)

Multiplication formula: For two independent


events A and B, the probability that both events
occur is
P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)

Conditional Probability : The probability of an


event A, given that event B has occurred, is
P(A|B) = P(A and B)
P(B)
Bayes Theorem : Bayes' Theorem is a way to
find the probability of an event based on prior
knowledge or information that is related to the
event. It helps to revise the probability of an
event after taking into account new data or
evidence.
P(A∣B) = P(B∣A) × P(A)
P(B)
 P(A∣B) is the posterior probability—the
probability of event A happening given that event B
has occurred.
 P(B∣A) is the likelihood—the probability of event
BBB happening given that event A has occurred.
 P(A) is the prior probability—the initial
probability of event A before considering the new
evidence.
 P(B) is the marginal likelihood—the total
probability of event B occurring (considering all
possibilities)
APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY:-

Daily life applications:


 Everyday games, such as rolling dice, playing
cards, or flipping a coin, involve probability.
Ex, The probability of getting a number 2 on
rolling a dice is (1/6).
 Websites like Amazon, Netflix, or YouTube
use probability to recommend products,
movies, or videos based on your preferences.

Industrial applications:
 Meteorologists use probability to predict the
likelihood of weather events, such as rain,
snow, or sunshine.
 Manufacturers use probability to assess the
quality of products. For example, when
testing items on a production line, a sample is
chosen randomly, and the probability of
finding defects in the sample helps predict the
quality of the entire batch.
 Insurance companies use probability to assess
risks and set premiums. They analyze factors
like age, health, driving history, or property
location to determine the likelihood of an
accident, illness, or damage occurring. This
helps them decide how much to charge for
insurance policies.

BIBLIOGRAPHY:-
The information used in the project are verified and
gathered from various sources like Chat GPT and
other websites like,
iCBSE.com
Wikipedia
Google
etc

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