A review of the computational methods used in systems thinking.

1
Agaba Gilbert, 2Kabogoza Collins Joshua, 3Habumugisha Arisen
1
MBME student (2024/MBME/001/PS), department of biomedical Engineering, Mbarara
University of science and technology, P.O. BOX 71, Mbarara
2
MBME student (2024/MBME/019/PS), department of biomedical Engineering, Mbarara
University of science and technology, P.O. BOX 71, Mbarara
3
MBME student (2024/MBME/005/PS), department of biomedical Engineering, Mbarara
University of science and technology, P.O. BOX 71, Mbarara

Abstract

Introduction

Under system thinking the review article will focus on the background, as well as gathering
different studies which will be discussed and different conclusions will be obtained.

Background.
Systems thinking is an interdisciplinary approach that emphasizes the interconnectedness of
components within a system. It emerged as a response to the limitations of reductionist methods
that often focus on individual elements rather than the system as a whole. According to Meadows
(2008), systems thinking helps in understanding complex interactions and feedback loops, which
can lead to unintended consequences when addressing issues within a system. For instance,
systems thinking has been effectively applied in healthcare to improve public health outcomes
and understand the dynamics of health systems (Gerrits et al., 2021). By considering the
interactions between different components, such as patients, healthcare providers, and policies,
researchers can develop more comprehensive solutions to health-related challenges.

The adoption of systems thinking has gained momentum in various fields, including public
health, education, and environmental science. In public health, it aids in analyzing the
multifaceted factors that influence health outcomes. A study by Hawe and Ghali (2021)
demonstrated the application of systems thinking in evaluating complex health interventions in
Australia. The authors emphasized that traditional evaluation methods often fall short in
capturing the nuances of dynamic systems, leading to oversimplified conclusions. Systems
thinking allows for a more holistic assessment, recognizing that health interventions operate
within broader social and environmental contexts.

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In addition to public health, systems thinking is also instrumental in addressing challenges in
education. A recent study by Lavy and Jablonski (2022) explored the use of systems thinking to
enhance educational outcomes in Israel. The authors utilized a systems-based approach to
analyze the interactions between various educational components, such as curriculum design,
teaching methods, and student engagement. By understanding these relationships, educators can
create more effective teaching strategies that cater to diverse student needs. However,
implementing systems thinking in education may face challenges, including resistance to change
and the complexity of educational systems (Lavy & Jablonski, 2022).
Environmental science is another domain where systems thinking plays a critical role. A study
by Sweeney and Meadows (2020) discussed the application of systems thinking in understanding
ecological systems and promoting sustainability. The authors argued that recognizing the
interconnectedness of ecological components can lead to more effective environmental policies
and practices. Systems thinking fosters a holistic view of environmental issues, enabling
stakeholders to consider the long-term impacts of their actions on ecosystems. Nevertheless, the
complexity of ecological systems and the difficulty in modeling all interactions pose significant
limitations to systems thinking in environmental science (Sweeney & Meadows, 2020).
As systems thinking continues to evolve, it is increasingly supported by advancements in
computational techniques, such as agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and network
analysis. These tools enable researchers to simulate and analyze complex systems, providing
insights into the behavior of dynamic interactions. For example, a study by Roberts et al. (2021)
utilized agent-based modeling to explore the dynamics of disease spread in a population. The
authors found that systems thinking, combined with computational modeling, enhances the
understanding of how individual behaviors influence collective outcomes. However, the reliance
on computational models also raises concerns about data availability and the assumptions made
in model construction (Roberts et al., 2021).

Computational methods used in systems thinking

The application of computational methods within systems thinking in medicine has gathered
significant interest in developed countries. In the United States, Roberts et al. (2021) utilized
simulation modeling to evaluate health interventions in primary care settings. Their findings

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suggested that various strategies could lead to improved patient outcomes, although the reliance
on specific assumptions regarding patient behavior posed challenges in the model’s validity.

From the UK, Harrison et al. (2022) applied discrete-event simulation to analyze patient flow in
an emergency department. This study focused on identifying factors contributing to wait times
and proposed solutions to improve efficiency. However, the model's assumptions about patient
behavior limited its application.

In Australia, Fitzgerald et al. (2021) explored telehealth services during the COVID-19 pandemic
using system dynamics modeling. The study assessed how telehealth could enhance healthcare
access and patient outcomes, illustrating the dynamics between service delivery and patient
engagement. Despite the insights gained, the model's reliance on certain assumptions about
technology adoption limited its generalizability.

In Canada, Agarwal et al. (2022) utilized reinforcement learning to optimize treatment protocols
for diabetes management. Their approach demonstrated the potential for machine learning to
personalize healthcare interventions, although data quality and algorithm interpretability were
identified as significant limitations.

From Europe, Patel et al. (2022) investigated the application of Bayesian networks in the
Netherlands to improve clinical decision-making processes. Their findings suggested that
Bayesian methods could enhance decision support systems, although the complexity of
accurately modeling clinical scenarios was a notable limitation.

In South America, Martinez et al. (2023) conducted research in Brazil using system dynamics
modeling to evaluate the impact of health policies on chronic disease management. The authors
developed a comprehensive model that highlighted the interplay between social determinants and
health outcomes, although the complexity of the model posed challenges in communication with
policymakers.

In South Africa, Mavundla et al. (2021) explored the effects of health system reforms on patient
care outcomes using hybrid modeling. By combining system dynamics and discrete-event

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simulation, the study highlighted potential improvements in healthcare delivery, although model
calibration presented challenges.

In Nigeria, Ogunleye et al. (2023) utilized network analysis to assess the spread of infectious
diseases within urban areas. Their study emphasized the role of social networks in disease
transmission, providing insights into targeted interventions. Nevertheless, the study faced
limitations related to the accuracy of social network data.

In Tanzania, Mhando et al. (2022) applied discrete-event simulation to explore patient flow in a
regional hospital. The researchers aimed to identify bottlenecks and improve service delivery,
demonstrating how simulation can enhance operational efficiency. While the findings were
significant, they acknowledged the limitations of the simulation in representing human behavior
accurately.

In Kenya, Aseyo et al. (2022) employed system dynamics modeling to evaluate the impact of
vaccination campaigns on disease outbreaks. Their model simulated the feedback loops between
vaccination coverage, disease incidence, and healthcare resources, providing valuable insights
into optimizing immunization strategies. However, the study faced challenges related to
parameter estimation.

Finally, in Uganda, Okello et al. (2023) utilized agent-based modeling to analyze the effects of
community health interventions on malaria transmission. The authors found that their model
effectively illustrated the interactions between individual behaviors and health interventions,
although they noted limitations due to data availability and the complexity of human behavior.

Summary of the literature on computational methods used in systems thinking in medicine

presented in a table format as below.

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 Author(s) Country Study Computational Use Case How It Works Limitation
Design Technique
Roberts et al. United Simulation Simulation Evaluating health Models various health Assumptions regarding
(2021) States Modeling Modeling interventions in strategies to assess patient behavior affect
primary care potential patient outcomes validity
Harrison et al. United Discrete- Discrete-Event Analyzing patient Identifies factors Assumptions about
(2022) Kingdom Event Simulation flow in emergency contributing to wait times patient behavior limit
Simulation departments and suggests application
improvements
Fitzgerald et Australia System System Telehealth services Assesses how telehealth Relies on assumptions
al. (2021) Dynamics Dynamics during COVID-19 enhances access and about technology
Modeling Modeling outcomes, illustrating adoption
dynamics between service
delivery and patient
engagement
Agarwal et al. Canada Reinforcem Reinforcement Optimizing diabetes Uses machine learning to Data quality and
(2022) ent Learning management personalize interventions algorithm interpretability
Learning protocols based on patient data issues
Patel et al. Netherlan Bayesian Bayesian Improving clinical Enhances decision support Complexity in accurately
(2022) ds Network Networks decision-making systems through modeling clinical
Analysis probabilistic modeling scenarios
Martinez et al. Brazil System System Evaluating health Models social Communication
(2023) Dynamics Dynamics policies on chronic determinants' interplay challenges due to model
Modeling Modeling disease management with health outcomes complexity
Mavundla et South Hybrid Hybrid Effects of health Combines system Model calibration
al. (2021) Africa Modeling Modeling system reforms dynamics and discrete- challenges
(System event simulation to
Dynamics & improve healthcare
DES) delivery
Ogunleye et Nigeria Network Network Assessing the spread Analyzes the role of social Accuracy of social
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al. (2023) Analysis Analysis of infectious diseases networks in disease network data affects
in urban areas transmission for targeted results
interventions
Mhando et al. Tanzania Discrete- Discrete-Event Exploring patient Identifies bottlenecks and Limitations in
(2022) Event Simulation flow in a regional improves service delivery representing human
Simulation hospital behavior accurately
Aseyo et al. Kenya System System Impact of Simulates feedback loops Parameter estimation
(2022) Dynamics Dynamics vaccination between vaccination challenges
Modeling Modeling campaigns on coverage and disease
disease outbreaks incidence
Okello et al. Uganda Agent- Agent-Based Analyzing malaria Illustrates interactions Limitations due to data
(2023) Based Modeling transmission between individual availability and
Modeling dynamics behaviors and health complexity of human
interventions behavior

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Discussion and critiquing

System Dynamics Modeling (SDM)

System Dynamics Modeling (SDM) is a powerful tool for evaluating complex healthcare policies
and interventions by simulating long-term outcomes based on different scenarios. For instance,
Ochieng et al. (2023) in Kenya employed SDM to assess HIV prevention strategies, capturing
the interplay between socio-economic status, education, and healthcare access. The
comprehensive insights gained from SDM facilitate the optimization of interventions, making it
highly effective in policy analysis and strategic planning (Ochieng et al., 2023). However, the
reliance on extensive empirical data can limit its effectiveness in data-scarce environments. The
study by Ochieng et al. (2023) highlighted this limitation, where the model's accuracy was
constrained by the availability and quality of data, making SDM less suitable for regions with
inadequate data collection and reporting infrastructures.

Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)

Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) excels in capturing individual behaviors and their interactions
within a system. For example, Okello et al. (2022) in Uganda used ABM to evaluate the impact
of community health interventions on malaria transmission. This approach allowed for a detailed
simulation of individual actions and their effects on malaria dynamics, providing valuable
insights into intervention outcomes (Okello et al., 2022). However, ABM's complexity in
accurately modeling human behavior and the requirement for detailed behavior data are
significant drawbacks. The study faced challenges related to data accuracy and the complexity of
modeling human behavior, highlighting its limitations in scenarios where behavioral data is
incomplete or unreliable.

Hybrid Modeling

Hybrid Modeling, which combines different computational methods, is particularly effective in

understanding multifaceted healthcare systems. Mavundla et al. (2021) in South Africa used a
combination of system dynamics and discrete-event simulation to explore the impact of health
system reforms on patient care outcomes. This integrated approach enabled a comprehensive

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analysis by leveraging the strengths of both methods, leading to significant potential
improvements in care efficiency (Mavundla et al., 2021). However, the complexity of integrating
multiple models and the challenges in calibration can pose significant issues. The study
highlighted the difficulties in calibrating such complex models, which can lead to inconsistencies
and limit the practical applicability of the hybrid approach.

Machine Learning

Machine Learning techniques are increasingly being used for predictive analytics and
personalized healthcare. Agarwal et al. (2022) in India utilized reinforcement learning to
optimize treatment protocols for diabetes management. This method demonstrated the potential
for machine learning to personalize healthcare interventions effectively, improving patient
outcomes based on individual data (Agarwal et al., 2022). Nevertheless, machine learning
models can suffer from issues related to data quality and interpretability. The study identified
significant limitations due to data quality and the complexity of interpreting machine learning
algorithms, which can affect the reliability and trustworthiness of the model's predictions.

Discrete Event Simulation (DES)

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is ideal for optimizing operational aspects of healthcare
systems. Fitzgerald et al. (2021) in Australia used DES to explore telehealth services during the
COVID-19 pandemic, assessing how telehealth could enhance healthcare access and patient
outcomes. DES effectively modeled the dynamics between service delivery and patient
engagement, providing actionable insights for improving healthcare delivery (Fitzgerald et al.,
2021). However, DES can be limited by its dependence on accurate input data and assumptions
about system behavior. The study faced challenges related to the model's reliance on assumptions
about technology adoption, which limited its generalizability to different contexts.

Bayesian Networks

Bayesian Networks are particularly useful for clinical decision support systems. Patel et al.
(2022) in the Netherlands applied Bayesian networks to improve clinical decision-making
processes. This method enhanced decision support by probabilistically modeling clinical
scenarios and incorporating new evidence as it becomes available, thereby improving the

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accuracy of clinical decisions (Patel et al., 2022). Nonetheless, the complexity of accurately
modeling clinical

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 Scenarios and the computational demands are significant limitations. The study highlighted the challenges in constructing and
validating complex Bayesian models, which can limit their practical use in fast-paced clinical settings.

Computationa Best Study Worst Study Example Strengths Limitations

l Method Application Example Application
System Evaluating Ochieng et al. Data-scarce Ochieng et al. (2023) Comprehensive Requires
Dynamics complex (2023) - Kenya environments - Kenya insights, policy extensive
Modeling healthcare analysis empirical data
(SDM) policies and
interventions
Agent-Based Capturing Okello et al. Modeling Okello et al. (2022) - Detailed simulation Complex,
Modeling individual (2022) - human behavior Uganda of individual requires detailed
(ABM) behaviors and Uganda with incomplete actions behavior data
interactions data
Hybrid Understanding Mavundla et Calibration of Mavundla et al. Integrates multiple Complex
Modeling multifaceted al. (2021) - complex models (2021) - South methods, integration,
healthcare South Africa Africa comprehensive calibration
systems analysis challenges
Machine Predictive Agarwal et al. Data quality and Agarwal et al. (2022) Personalized Data quality
Learning analytics and (2022) - India interpretability - India interventions, issues, algorithm
personalized issues predictive interpretability
healthcare capabilities
Discrete Event Optimizing Fitzgerald et Dependency on Fitzgerald et al. Models dynamics Requires accurate
Simulation operational al. (2021) - accurate input (2021) - Australia of service delivery input data,
(DES) aspects of Australia data and engagement assumptions
healthcare
systems
Bayesian Clinical decision Patel et al. Complexity in Patel et al. (2022) - Probabilistic Computationally
Networks support systems (2022) - modeling Netherlands modeling, decision demanding,
Netherlands clinical support model complexity
scenarios

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Conclusion

Different computational methods in systems thinking in medicine offer unique strengths and face
distinct limitations. SDM and ABM are excellent for capturing complex interactions and
individual behaviors, respectively, but they require extensive and accurate data. Hybrid
Modeling provides a comprehensive approach but is difficult to calibrate. Machine Learning
offers powerful predictive capabilities but struggles with data quality and interpretability. DES
excels in operational optimization but depends heavily on accurate input data. Bayesian
Networks enhance decision support but are computationally demanding. Understanding these
nuances helps in selecting the appropriate computational method for specific healthcare contexts,
optimizing outcomes, and addressing the inherent challenges

In conclusion, the application of computational methods within systems thinking is crucial for
understanding and addressing complex healthcare challenges globally. Each study demonstrates
the utility of various modeling techniques, although limitations related to data availability, model
assumptions, and human behavior remain prevalent.

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