INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS PROBABAILITY?

Probability means possibility.It is a branch of

mathematics that deals with the occurrence of a
random event. The value is expressed from zero to one.
Probability has been introduced in Maths to predict
how likely events are to happen.

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to

occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total
certainty. We can predict only the chance of an event to
occur i.e. how likely they are to happen, using it.
Probability can range in from 0 to 1, where 0 means the
event to be an impossible one and 1 indicates a certain
event. The probability of all the events in a sample
space adds up to 1.
For example, when we toss a coin, either we get Head
or Tail, only two possible outcomes are possible (H, T).
But if we toss two coins in the air, there could be three
possibilities of events to occur, such as both the coins
show heads or both shows tails or one shows heads
and one tail, i.e. (H, H), (H, T), (T, T).
Probability theory is widely used in the area of studies
such as statistics, finance, gambling artificial
intelligence, machine learning, computer science, game
theory, and philosophy.

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT:
Assume an event 'E' can occur in 'r' ways out of a sum
of 'n' probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the
probability of happening of the event or its success is
expressed as-
P(E) = r/n
The probability that the event will not occur or known
as its failure is expressed as:
P(E') = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E' represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say,
P(E) + P(E') = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any
random test or experiment is equal to 1

What are Equally Likely Events?

When the events have the same theoretical probability
of happening, then they are called equally likely events.
The results of a sample space are called equally likely
if all of them have the same probability of occurring.
For example, if you throw a die, then the probability of
getting 1 is 1/6.

Complementary Events:
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes
which states that an event will occur or not. Like a
person will come or not come to your house. Basically,
the complement of an event occurring in the exact
opposite that the probability of it is not occurring.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The conditional probability of 'A' given 'B' is the

probability that event 'A' has occurred in a trial of a
random experiment for which it is known that event 'B'
has definitely occurred.

It may be computed by means of the following formula:

P(AB)=P(A∩B)/P(B)

Suppose a fair die has been rolled and you are asked to
give the probability that it was a five. There are six
equally likely outcomes, so your answer is 1/6. But
suppose that before you give your answer you are given
the extra information that the number rolled was odd.
Since there are only three odd numbers that are
possible, one of which is five, you would certainly revise
your estimate of the likelihood that a five was rolled
from 1/6 to 1/3.
 INDEPENDENT EVENT

In probability, two events are independent if the

incidence of one event does not affect the probability
of the other event. If the incidence of one event does
affect the probability of the other event, then the events
are dependent.

There is a red 6-sided fair die and a blue 6-sided fair die.
Both dice are rolled at the same time. Let A be the
event that the red die's result is even. Let B be the event
that the blue die's result is odd. The outcome of the red
die has no impact on the outcome of the blue die.
Likewise, the outcome of the blue die does not affect
the outcome of the red die.

P(A)= 1/2 regardless of whether B happens or not.

P(B)=1/2 regardless of whether A happens or not.
Therefore, the events are independent.

There are 3 green marbles and 5 blue marbles in a bag.

Two marbles are drawn from the bag at random. Let G
be the event that the first marble drawn is green. Let B
be the event that the second marble drawn is blue.
Case 1: G happens
When the first marble drawn is green, there are 7
marbles left in the bag, and 5 of them are blue. In
this case, P(B)= 5/7

Case 2: G does not happen

When the first marble drawn is blue, there are 7
marbles left in the bag, and 4 of them are blue. In
this case, P(B)= 4/7

The incidence of G affects the probability of B.

Therefore, these events are not independent. In
other words, they are dependent.
 BAYE'S THEOREM

Baye's Theorem Statement:

Let E1, E2,...,En be a set of events associated with a

sample space S, where all the events E1, E2,..., En have
nonzero probability of occurrence and they form a
partition of S. Let A be any event associated with S,
then according to Bayes theorem,
P(EA) = P(E)P(A | Ε;)/Σκ-1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)
for any k = 1, 2, 3, ...., n

Baye's Theorem Proof:

According to the conditional probability formula,
P(E | A) = P(ENA)P(A) ................(1)

Using the multiplication rule of probability,

P(ENA) = P(E)P(A | E₁).................(2)

Using total probability theorem,

P(A) = "k=1P(Ek)P(A/Ek)..............(3)

Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in

equation 1, we get
P(EA) = P(E)P(Α | Ε₁)/Σκ-1 P(Ek)P(A|Ek)
 RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION

A random variable is a real valued function whose

domain is the sample space of a random experiment.

The probability distribution for a random variable

describes how the probabilities are distributed over the
values of the random variable. This function provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.
The probability distribution of a random variable X is
the system of numbers

X:x_{1}*x_{2} ...x n
P(X):matrix p 1 &p 2 &***& p_{n} matrix in
Where, p_{i} > 0 Sigma i = 1 ^ n pi=1 i = 1, 2 ,...,n

Let X be a random variable whose possible values x1,

x2,.............................Xk occur with probabilities p1, p2,
..., pk respectively, the mean of X is denoted by
mu x = x_{1}*p_{1} + x_{2}*p_{2} +***+x k p k
= sum x i p i
 BERNOULLI TRIALS

A random experiment whose outcomes are only of two

types, say success S and failure F, is a Bernoulli trial.
The probability of success is taken as p while that of
failure is q=1- p. A random variable X will have Bernoulli
distribution with probability p if its probability
distribution is
P(X= x) = p (1-p), for x = 0, 1 and P(X = x) = 0 for other
values of x.
Here, 0 is failure and 1 is the success.

Conditions for Bernoulli Trials:

1. A finite number of trials.
2. Each trial should have exactly two outcomes:
success or failure.
3. Trials should be independent.
4. The probability of success or failure should be the
same in each trial.
 BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Suppose a random experiment with exactly two

outcomes is repeated n times independently. The
probability of success is p and that of failure is q.
Assume that out of these n times, we get success for x
times and failure for the remaining i.e., n-x times. The
total number of ways in which we can have success is
nCx. A random variable X will have a binomial
distribution if-
P(X= x) = p(x) = nCx px qn-x

for x = 0, 1, ..., n and P(X = x) = 0 otherwise. Here, q=1- p.

Any such random variable X is binomial variate. A
binomial trial is a set of n independent Bernoullian trials.

Conditions for Binomial Distribution:

1. Each trial results in only two outcomes i.e., success
and failure.
2. The number of trials 'n' is finite.
3. The trials are independent of each other.
4. The probability of success, p or that of failure, q is
constant for each trial.
 CONCLUSION

Applications of Probability:
Some of the applications of probability are predicting
the outcome when you:

.Flipping a coin.
.Choosing a card from the deck.
.Throwing a dice.
.Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
.Winning a lottery 1 in many millions

Examples of Real-Life probability

Weather Planning:
A probability forecast is an assessment of how likely
an event can occur in terms of percentage and record
the risks associated with weather. Meteorologists
around the world use different instruments and tools to
predict weather changes. They collect the weather
forecast database from around the world to estimate
the temperature changes and probable weather
conditions for a particular hour, day, week, and month.

Example:
if there are 40% chances of raining then the weather
condition is such that 40 out of 100 days it has rained.
Sports Strategies:
In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of
probability to understand the strengths and
weaknesses of a particular team or player. Analysts
use probability and odds to foretell outcomes regarding
the team's performance and members in the sport.

Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in what

areas their team is strong enough and in which all
areas they have to work to attain victory. Trainers even
use probability to gauge the capacity of a particular
player in his team and when to allow him to play and
against whom.

Example:
A cricket coach evaluates a player's batting and
bowling capability by taking his average performances
in previous matches before placing him in the line-up.

Insurance:
Insurance companies use the theory of probability or
theoretical probability for framing a policy or
completing at a premium rate. The theory of probability
is a statistical method used to predict the possibility of
future outcomes.

Example:
Issuing health insurance for an alcoholic person is
likely to be more expensive compared to the one issued
to a healthy person. Statistical analysis shows high
health risks for a regular alcoholic person, ensuring
them is a great financial risk given a higher probability
of serious illness and hence filing a claim of premium
money.

Example:
When two dices are rolled simultaneously, the
outcomes will be as given below

Summary:
Probability plays a vital role in the day-to-day life. In the
weather forecast, sports and gaming strategies, buying
or selling insurance, online shopping, and online games,
determining blood groups, and analysing political
strategies.