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Global Temp

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27 views2 pages

Global Temp

Uploaded by

nhan.huynh2006
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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A Look at Global Ave Temp

Produced by Thomas J. Pfaff


sustainabilitymath.org
Updated March 2023

Figure 1 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance:


Global Time Series, published May 2020, retrieved on June 2, 2020 from
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/ Specifically, data for anomalies from 20th century for
Land and Ocean from
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land/ytd/12/1880-2019 This page
also contains data for Ocean and Land separately. Working with anomalies is preferable
but may be harder for students to understand and so we use 13.9 deg C as the20th
average temperature and add that to the anomaly. The baseline mean is from
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php#mean More
information about the preference of using anomalies is on this page and should be read
(click FAQ).

Answer the following questions using the fitted curve,


2
T ( x)=13.8493091447612+ 0.00279303700768105 x +0.000164386168920222 x , that is
represented in Figure 1.

1. Find a model with output Average Global Temperature and input years (or years
after 1950) starting in 1950. [Either delete this question or the figure, in which case
provide the data.]
2. Use function composition to convert the T(x) function so that the output is
Fahrenheit. Simplify your expression. Recall that F=9C/5 + 32.
3. Based on the model what is the predicted global average temperature for 2025?
2050? 2100? How much of an increase is that for each of those years based on the
current (use 2022, since that is the last year data was collected) average global
temperature?
4. What is the current (use 2022 which is the last year of data) rate of change of
average global temperature? Based on this result, what is the predicted increase in
global temperature by 2025? 2050? 2100? What will the average global
temperatures be for those years? (in Fahrenheit).
5. Explain why your two predictions are different.
6. Use the information above to fill in the blanks (use Fahrenheit).

According to the model, if current temperature trends continue, in 2025 the average
global temperature will be __________which is an increase of __________above the
2019 average temperature. On the other hand, if we assume that the rate of
temperature increase remains constant at 2021 rates of __________, then the
average global temperature will be __________ in 2025, which is an increase of
__________above the 2021 average temperature.

7. The projections of global temperature here are based on time series, but time isn't
driving climate change. Sophisticated models of future climate are based on
scenarios of human behavior. Consider Figure SPM.8a from the IPCC sixth
assessment report (2021) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/summary-
for-policymakers/figure-spm-8). Which two projections for 2100 match closest to
your two projections? Note the graph is in deg C, multiply by 9/5 to get a change in
deg F. What are the underlying assumptions of each of these two scenarios? Go to
the page that contains Figure 2. What impacts should we expect based on the
warming trends we are predicting?
8. Provide a question that you would like answered based on your work here.

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