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GTU Probability and Statistics (P&S)

Winter 2021 Paper Solutions
Q1
(a) Define a term random variable and explain different types of random
variable
A random variable is not a traditional numerical variable, but rather a function that assigns a numerical value to each outcome
in a sample space of a random experiment.
There are two main types of random variables:
1. Discrete Random Variables: These are the random variables that can take on a countable number of distinct values.
For example, the number of heads in 10 coin tosses is a discrete random variable because it can only take on integer
values between 0 and 10.
2. Continuous Random Variables: These are random variables that can take an infinite number of possible values.
Continuous random variables are typically measurements and can include any value in an interval. For example, the height
of students in a class is a continuous random variable because it can take on any value within a range (like between 4
feet and 7 feet).

(b) A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability
that the card is a spade or a king?
In a standard deck of 52 cards:
 There are 13 spades.
There are 4 kings.
To find the probability, we use the formula for the probability of either of two events (A or B):
P (AorB) = P (A) + P (B) − P (AandB)

Here, A is the event of drawing a spade, and B is the event of drawing a king.
P (A) = T otalnumberofspades/T otalnumberofcards = 13/52

KaTeX can only parse string typed expression

P(A and B) is the probability of drawing the king of spades, which is 1/52
Plugging these into the formula:
P(Spade or King) = 13/52 + 4/52 - 1/52
The probability of drawing a card that is either a spade or a king from a standard deck of 52 cards is approximately 0.308, or
30.8%

(c) State Baye’s theorem. There are three bags; first containing 1 white, 2 red
and 3green balls; second 2 white, 3 red and 1 green balls and third 3 white, 1
red and 2 green balls. Two balls are drawn from a beg chosen at random. These
are found to be 1 white and 1 red. Find the probability that the balls so drawn
came from the second bag.
Bayes' theorem describes the probability of an event based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the
event.
P (A ∣ B) = (P (B ∣ A) ⋅ P (A))/P (B)

Bag 1 Bag 2 Bag 3

1 White 2 White 3 White
2 Red 3 Red 1 Red
3 Green 1 Green 2 Green
Let’s say A1 Let’s say A2 Let’s say A3

B = 1 white + 1 red
P(A2/B) = P(A2).P(B/A2) / P(A1).P(B/A1) + P(A2).P(B/A2) + P(A3).P(B/A3)
After doing the calculation, the result wil be 0.545
Q.2
(a) Two judges in a beauty contest rank the 12 contestants as follows:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
y 12 9 6 10 3 5 4 7 6 2 11 1

Calculate rank correlation coefficient.

x y d^2 (x-y)^2
1 12 121
2 9 49
3 6 9
4 10 36
5 3 4
6 5 1
7 4 9
8 7 1
9 6 9
10 2 64
11 11 0
12 1 121
∑=424

r = 1 - 6 (424) / 12 (143) = -0.4825

It indicates that the judges have fairly strong divergent likes & dislikes.

(b) A book contains 100 misprints distributed randomly throughout its 100
pages. What is the probability that a page observed at random contains at
least 2 misprints.
Given that there are 100 misprints distributed randomly over 100 pages, we can assume that the average rate (λ) of misprints
per page is 1. The Poisson probability mass function is given by:
P(X=x)= e^(−λ) * (λ)ˣ / x!
n=100
λ=1
P(X≥2)=1-P(X<2)
= 1-[P(X=0)+P(X=1)]
= 1-[0.3679+0.3679]
= 0.2642

(c) A die is thrown six times. If getting an odd number is a success, find the
probability of (i) 5 success (ii) at least five success and (ii ) at most five success.
n=6. Because the value of n is less, we wil use Binomial distribution
P = 1/2 = 0.5
i) P(x=5) = nCxP x Qn−x
6C5(0.5)5 (0.5)1 = 0.0938

i ) P(X≥5) = P(X=5)+P(X=6)
= 0.0938 + 6C6(0.5)6 (0.5)0 = 0.938 + 0.0156 = 0.1094

i i) P(X≤5)
1 − P (x > 5) = 1 − P (x = 6) = 1 − 0.0156 = 0.9844

OR
(c) If a random variable x is Gamma distribution with parameter 𝜆 = 3, compute
the value of (i) P(x≤1) and (ii) P(1≤x≤2)
f(x) = Γr𝜆 xr−1 e−𝜆x , x > 0
r
​

=0
Let r = 1 (suppose)
𝜆 = 3 (given)
f(x) = 3x0 e−3x
= 3e−3x , x > 0

i) P(x≤1) = 3[ e−3 ]1 = −e− 3 + e0 = 0.9502

−3x
​

i ) P(1≤x≤2) = 3( e−33x )2 = −e−6 + e−3 = 0.0473

−
​
Q3
(a) Calculate the coefficient of variance for the following data:
Class Interval 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50
Frequency 5 7 2 3 3

Class xi fi fixi fi(xi-x bar)^2

0-10 5 5 25 1280
10-20 15 7 105 252
20-30 25 2 50 32
30-40 35 3 105 588
40-50 45 3 135 1728
∑=20 ∑=420 ∑=3880

CV = x6ˉ ∗ 100%
​

= 13.9284
21
​
∗ 100 % = 66.3257%
x̄ = ∑∑ffixii = 420
20 = 21
​ ​

Therefore,
√ 3880
20 = 13.9284
​

(b) Calculate the median for the following data:

Class Interval 0-30 30-60 60-90 90-120 120-150 150-180
Frequency 8 13 22 27 18 7

Class Fi CF
0-30 8 8
30-60 13 21
60-90 22 48
90-120 (L) 27 70
120-150 18 88
150-180 7 95
∑=95

n
M=l+ −m
n
2
∗c
​

f
​

∑f
n
2
​ = 2
​
= 75/2 = 47.5

= 95

(c) Compute the correlation coefficients between X and Y using following data:
X 2 4 5 6 8 11
Y 18 12 10 8 7 5

X Y x-x̄ Y-Ȳ (x-x̄)(Y-Ȳ) (x-x̄)^2 (Y-Ȳ)^2

2 18 -4 8 -32 16 64
4 12 -2 2 -4 4 4
5 10 -1 0 0 1 0
6 8 0 -2 0 0 4
8 7 2 -3 -6 4 9
11 5 5 -5 -25 25 25
∑=-67 50 106

x̄ = ∑nxi = 6 ​

Ȳ = ∑nyi = 10 ​

r = √ ∑∑(x−(x−xˉ)xˉ√)(Y∑−(YYˉ )−Yˉ ) 2 2 ​

−67
√50√106
​ = −0.9203

OR
Q.3 (a) Obtain correlation coefficient between x and y if two regression lines are
4x5y+33=0 and 20x-9y-107=0.
Ans. r = √byxbxy
5y=4x+33:
y=4/5x + 33/5
byx = 4/3 < 1
20x=9y+107: x = 9/20y + 107/20 bxy = 9/20 < 1
= 3/5 = 0.6
(b) Calculate the mode for the following data:
Class Interval 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50
Frequency 10 14 19 7 13

Mode z = l + 2f 1−f
f 1−f 0
0−f 2 ∗ c ​

Class fi
0-10 10
10-20 14 f0
l=20-30 19 (highest freq. or f1)
30-40 7 f2
40-50 13

After putting all the values in formula and calculating,

= 22.9412

(c) Obtain the regression line of y on x for the following data:

x 100 98 78 85 110 93 80
y 85 90 70 72 95 81 74

Ans.
x y x-x̄ Y-Ȳ (x-x̄)(Y-Ȳ) (x-x̄)^2
100 85 8 4 32 64
98 90 6 9 54 36
78 70 -14 -11 154 196
85 72 -7 -9 63 49
110 95 18 14 252 324
93 81 1 0 0 1
80 74 -12 -7 84 144
639 814

Reg y on x,
Y-Ȳ=byx(x-x̄)
byx = ∑(x− xˉ)(Y − Yˉ )
∑ (x− xˉ) 2

x̄ = ∑nxi = 92
​

Ȳ= ∑nyi = 81
​

= 639/814
= 0.7850

Q.4
(a) Explain the term related to testing of hypothesis:
(i) Null hypothesis
Null Hypothesis (H0): It means that there is no significant difference or effect observed, essential y stating that any
observed variation in data is due to chance or random occurrences.
(ii)Alternate hypothesis
Alternate Hypothesis (H1 or Ha): It proposes an effect or difference, suggesting that observed data variations are not
just due to random chance but due to a specific cause or factor.
(iii) Errors while accepting or rejecting a hypothesis
Errors in Hypothesis Testing:
Type I Error: Occurs when the null hypothesis is true, but is incorrectly rejected. It's also known as a "false positive."
Type II Error: Occurs when the null hypothesis is false, but is incorrectly accepted. It's known as a "false negative."

(b) The mean of 35 sample of the thermal conductivity of a certain kind of

cement brick is 0.343 with standard deviation of 0.010. Test the hypothesis
that the population mean is 0.340 at 5% level of significance
Ans. n=35
x̄=0.343
S=0.010
1. H0: μ = 0.340
2. H1: μ ≠ 0.340
3. α = 0.05
4. z = Sxˉ/√n
−μ
= 1.7748
​

5. Z0.05 = 1.96
 6. MOD(x) < MOD(Z0.05)
Therefore, the hypothesis is accepted.

(c) Fit a binomial distribution for the following data showing the survey of 800
families with 4 children and test the goodness of fit
No. of boys 0 1 2 3 4
No. of girls 4 3 2 1 0
No. of families 32 178 290 238 64

Ans.
No. of boys f0 fe (f0-fe)^2/fe
0 32 50 6.48
1 178 200 2.42
2 290 300 0.333
3 238 200 7.22
4 64 50 3.92
∑=20.3733

For expected freq.

P (X = x) = ncxP x Qn−x

n=4, P=0.5, Q=0.5

P(X=0) = 4C0(0.5)^0 (0.5^4)
= 0.0625
No. of families = 800 * 0.0625
= 50
P(X=1) = 0.25
No. of families = 0.25 * 800
= 200
P(X=2) = 0.375
No. of families = 300
P(X=3) = 0.25, family = 200
P(X=4) = 0.0625, family = 50
Total=800
Testing the hypothesis:
1. H0: Birth rate of boys and girls are same
2. H1: Birth rate of boys and girls are not same
3. α=0.05
4. x2 = ∑(f 0−f
fe
e)2
= 20.3733
​

5. v=n-1 = 5-1 = 4
x2 0.05(v = 4) = 9.488
6. x2 > x2 0.05

Therefore, it is rejected

OR
Q.4 (a) A random sample of size 15 from bivariate normal distribution gave a
correlation coefficient r=0.5. Is this indicate the existence of correlation in the
population?
Ans. n=15, r=0.5
Testing the hypothesis:
1. H0: There is no co-relation 3=0
2. H1 = 3≠0
3. α=0.05
4. t = r√n−2
1−r2 ​
= 2.0817

5. v=n-2=15-2=13
t0.05(v=13) = 2.16
6. t < t0.05
Therefore, it is accepted

(b) A tire company is suspicious to claim that the average lifetime of certain
tires is at least 28000 km. To check the claim, the company takes the sample
of 40 tires and gets a mean life time of 27463 km with standard deviation of
1348 km. Test the hypothesis at 1% level of significance
It has large sample & single mean.
μ=28000
n=40
x=27463
s=1348
Testing the hypothesis:
1. H0: μ=28000 km
2. H1: μ≠28000 km
3. α=0.01
4. z = Sxˉ/√n
−μ
= −2.5795
​

MOD(z) = 2.5795
5. Z0.01 = -2.333
MOD(Z0.01) = 2.333
6. MOD(z)>MOD(z0.01)
Therefore, it is rejected

(c) Fit a Poisson distribution for the following data and test the goodness of fit.
x 0 1 2 3 4
f 112 73 30 4 1

Ans.
x f0 fixi fe (f0-fe)^2/fe
0 112 0 42
1 73 73 76
2 30 60 2.5
3 4 12 6
4 1 4 1
 x f0 fixi fe (f0-fe)^2/fe
=220
∑ ∑=149 =0.3997
∑

The final answer wil be 220.

Q.5
(a) In 𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 if ∑ 𝑥 = 50, ∑ 𝑦 = 80, ∑ 𝑥𝑦 = 1030, ∑ 𝑥^2 = 750 and 𝑛 =
10, then find 𝑎 and 𝑏
y= a + bx
∑ y = na + b∑x
∑ xy = a∑x + b∑x^2
a = 1.7
b = 1.26
y = 1.7 + 1.26x

(b) Fit a curve y = aebx for the following data:

x 1 2 3 4
y 7 11 17 27

lny = lna + bx
Say, lny = Y, lna = A and bx = bx
n= 4
∑ Y = nA + b∑x
∑ xY = A∑x + b∑x^2
x y Y=lny xY x^2
1 7 1.9459 1.9459 1
2 11 2.3979 4.7958 4
3 17 2.8332 8.4996 9
4 27 3.2958 13.1832 6
10 10.47 28.42 30
A = 1.4969 b = 0.4485
a = eA = 4.4678

y = ae^bx = (4.4678)e^0.44485x

(c) State properties of the normal distribution. Suppose the marks of 800
students are normally distributed with mean 66 and standard deviation 5. Find
number of students getting marks (i) between 65 and 70 (ii) greater than or
equal to 72 (Given that P(0≤z≤0.20)=0.0793, that P(0≤z≤0.80)=0.2881 and that
P(0≤z≤1.2)=0.3849)
Properties of normal distribution:
1. It is symmetric
2. Its mean/median/mode are equal
n=800, μ=66, σ = 5
(i) P(65<x<70)
z1 = x1−μ
σ = −0.20
​

z2 = x2−μ
σ = 0.80 ​

P(-0.20<Z<0.80) = P(-0.20<z<0) + P(0<Z<0.80)

= P(0<Z<0.20) + P (0<Z<0.81)
= 0.0793 + 0.2881
= 0.3674
No. of students = 0.3674 * 800 = 294
(ii) P(x≥72)
x1−μ 72.66
z= σ ​
= 5 ​ = 1.2

P(z≥1.2) = P(0≤z≤∞) - P(0≤z≤1.2)

= 0.5 - 0.3849
= 0.1151
= No. of students = 0.1151 * 800 = 92 (approx)

OR
Q.5 (a) A random variable x has the following probability distribution:
xi 0 1 2 3
pi 1/6 3/8 3/8 1/8

Find the standard deviation of x for the given distribution.

Ans.
Standard Deviation = √(E(x2 ) − [E(x)]2 ) = √(3 − (1.5)2 ) = 0.8660
E(x2 ) = ∑ xi2 P i = (0)2 (1/8) + (1)2 (3/8) + (2)2 (3/8) + (3)2 (1/8) = 3E(x) = ∑ xiP i = (0)(1/8) + (2)(3/8) +
(3)(1/8) = 1.5

Q.5 (b) With usual notations, find the value of p for a binomial random variable
x when n=6 and 9P(x=4)=P(x=2).
q p(x=4) = p(x=2)
P(X=x) = nCxP x qn−x
q[6C4P 4 q2 ] = 6C2P 2 q4 q(15p4 q2 ) = 15p2 q4 qp2 = q2 qp2 = (1 − p)2 qp2 = 1 − 2p + p2 8p2 + 2p − 1 = 0

(2P+1)(4P-1)=0
P=− 12 but that’s not possible so
​

P= 1/4

(c) Fit a parabola 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 2 + 𝑏𝑥 + 𝑐 for the following data:

x -1 0 1 2
y -2 1 2 4

Ans.
x y x^2 x^3 x^4 xy x^2y
.. .. .. .. .. .. ..
∑ =2 ∑ =5 ∑ =6 ∑ =8 ∑ =18 ∑ =12 ∑ =16

a = -0.25
b= 2.15
c=0.55
y = ax2 + bx + c

∑y = a∑x^2 + b∑x + nc
∑xy = a∑x^3 + b∑x^2 + c∑x
∑ x2 y = a ∑ x4 + b ∑ x3 + c ∑ x2

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