2019 P2B
2019 P2B
2019 P2B
5. (a) Examine the role of ‘parliamentary diplomacy’ in India’s foreign policy. (10 marks, 150 words)
Introduction
The term ‘Parliamentary Diplomacy’ is an important and alternative form of diplomacy developed
due to the increasing role of Parliament in foreign affairs and policies.
Body
Role of Parliament
The role of Parliaments in the formulation of foreign policy is a complex issue, which occurs at two
levels.
1. Institutional Level
• This involves the ratification of international treaties and the enactment of laws.
• Parliament conducting dialogue regarding key international issues. It democratizes foreign
policy through tools like questions, motions, and discussions. For example, as seen during the
issue of Chinese aggression or the India-US Civil Nuclear Deal.
2. Diplomatic level
• Bilateral diplomacy: Cooperation with other Parliaments or regular meetings between elected
representatives. For instance, India and Russia have expressed the need to further
parliamentary diplomacy.
• Multilateral diplomacy: These include delegations to meetings of international bodies or in
international parliamentary bodies such as the Intern-Parliamentary Union. These help
Parliamentarians to highlight global challenges such as organized crimes or human rights
violations among others.
Former Speaker Meira Kumar noted that such exchanges contribute towards sharing of ideas and
upholding values and ideals of democracy globally.
Limitations
While the Parliament is an important institution in influencing foreign, however, there are some
limitations.
• Most treaties are signed without the approval of the Parliament. Example: India-Soviet
Agreement of 1971.
• In practice, foreign policymaking is within the domain of the executive.
• The former minister of External Affairs MC Chagla noted that committees are agencies to get
policies accepted and mute criticism rather than to influence foreign policy.
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Conclusion
Being the highest institution in India, the Parliament of India does have an important role in the
formulation and implementation of foreign policies in many ways. In practice, its role is not regarded
as the core. However, in the era of globalization and expansion of state domain, Parliament’s influence
must expand beyond domestic issues and it must be active in international affairs.
5 (b) Compare and contrast Non-alignment 1.0 with Non-alignment 2.0 (10 marks, 150 words)
Introduction
In 2012, “Non Alignment 2.0: A foreign and strategic policy for India in 21st century” (“NA 2.0”) was
published by the Centre for Policy Research. This publication has brought the focus on non-alignment.
Body
Post-independence, VK Krishna Menon used the phrase ‘non-aligned’, which was spelt out by Pandit
Nehru. It meant decisions regarding India and its interest must not be externally determined and to
maintain and expand strategic autonomy was the objective. Despite some issues, India was fairly
successful in its policy of non-alignment. But some have argued that non-alignment lost its relevance
post-Cold war.
While this is non-alignment 1.0 (“NA 1.0”), non-alignment 2.0 is an attempt to guide India’s foreign
policy in the 21st century. The purpose of the NA 2.0 document is threefold: (a) Layout opportunities
(b) Identify challenges and (c) Define a broad approach.
Similarities
Differences
• NA 1.0 was post World War II while NA 2.0 is set in the 21st century. NA 2.0identifies that the
world is no longer bifurcated between two dominant powers. Thus, non-alignment in the 21st
century does not require India to manage complicated coalitions.
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• NA 2.0 is not a passive approach of not taking sides but of taking sides and options that suit
our interests. It accepts the notion that a nation has no permanent friends or enemies but
permanent interests.
• NA 2.0 acknowledges India’s enhanced economic and security capabilities enable it to
influence the outcome in a widening manner when compared to the Cold war era.
• NA 2.0 acknowledges India’s great leverage and greater responsibility when it comes to
handling regional issues (like security in the Indian ocean) and global issues (like climate
change and energy security).
• NA 2.0 acknowledges that the promotion of India’s interest requires far greater engagement
with the world than ever before.
Conclusion
Strategic autonomy has been defining the value and goal of India’s international policy since its
inception. The idea of NA 2.0 is to renovate that value and goal for the 21st century to enable the
pursuit of India’s interest in the world.
5 (c) How is India pursuing her foreign policy objectives through IBSA Dialogue Forum (India, Brazil,
and South Africa). (10 marks, 150 words)
Introduction
IBSA Dialogue Forum is an international tripartite grouping among India, Brazil, and South Africa. It
came into existence as a result of the Brasilia Declaration of 2003 and aims topromoting international
cooperation.
Body
All three nations are developing, pluralistic, multicultural, multiethnic, and multi-religious and they
face similar challenges. Given the similarities, India can pursue its foreign policy through the IBSA
Dialogue Forum.
Strategic
• India could harness the support from IBSA members for its long-held demand for a reformed
UN and a permanent candidature at UNSC.
• Cooperation with IBSA for demanding an egalitarian world order. For example, IBSA stands
for making WTO more responsive to the demands of developing and least developed nations
through IBSA Trade Ministers.
• India’s vision of new world order can be furthered through IBSA Forum. IBSA nations reaffirm
the centrality of rule-based, transparent, open, and inclusive order.
• India's engagement with IBSA can signify that it is an alternative to China’s authoritarian
development.
• IBSA is regarded as a temple of ‘south-south cooperation. IBSA's success in contributing to the
discourse on global issues also shows the importance of engaging with the countries of the
South.
• India through IBSA can bring attention to areas of climate change. It can use the IBSA Forum
to pressurize developed nations to support developing nations via financing, technology
transfer, and capacity building.
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• IBSA nations sought to improve cooperation on international and regional issues such as the
Israel-Palestine issue or the Syrian conflict.
• Through the IBSA fund, they seek to contribute to the balanced implementation of Sustainable
Development Goals.
Security
• India could rely on IBSA nations to support its fight against terrorism and passage of
convention on terrorism. Further, IBSA Forum has already called for effective implementation
of relevant UNSC Resolutions.
• India could undertake regular naval exercise IBSAMAR to establish maritime peace and
security.
Economic
• From an economic viewpoint, the three nations are complementary in nature. While India has
rich demography, the other two are rich in resources.
• In wake of the economic slowdown of BRICS, IBSA is a good alternative. The IBSA countries
have signed many MoUs in multiple arenas for economic cooperation.
• Energy security: And through Brazil, India can further its energy security from Latin American
nations. And South Africa is known for its coal to liquid technology.
• Through South Africa, India could strengthen its trade and investment position in the African
continent and amongst members of the African Union.
Conclusion
In the wake of relative stagnancy, India needs to re-think its approach towards IBSA and reflect
seriousness. Keeping in the mind the inadequacies of BRICS, particularly the Russia-China axis and
IBSA’s potential in furthering our foreign policies, India needs to re-think its approach towards IBSA
and place greater emphasis on reviving it. From talking shop, it must transform into an influential
powerhouse as Rajiv Bhatia calls it.
5 (d) How is India responding to the idea of the Indo-Pacific? (10 marks, 150 words)
Introduction
According to Alfred Mahan, in 21stcentury, the destiny of the world will be decided in the waters of
the Indian Ocean. The term ‘Indo-Pacific’ is not new nomenclature but it has gained prominence in
recent times.
Body
According to India, ‘Indo-Pacific’ (“region”) is the geographical space that stretches from the western
Pacific coast to the eastern coast of Africa. India’s vision for the Indo-Pacific region was enunciated by
PM Modi in his address to the Shangri La Dialogue in 2018. India’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region
can be understood under these broad categories:
Diplomatic: The growing significance of the Indo-Pacific region requires India to not only expand its
footprint through collaborative initiatives
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• The region has been well-integrated into Indian foreign policy by announcements of Look East
Policy in 1994, the Act East Policy in 2016, and with emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region in
recent times. Given the tensions especially around the South China Sea, India-ASEAN ties will
play a strategic role in the Indo-Pacific region.
• India’s partnerships with top powers are necessary to help address India’s capability gaps. This
could be QUAD, the increased security cooperation with the USA, and cooperation with
European nations. C Rajamohan notes that powers like the USA and other European nations
have also woken up the China challenge and are likely to pay more attention to geopolitics in
Indo-Pacific. He notes India’s cooperation with former imperial powers has become a strategic
necessity for India.
• Indian is also exploring synergies with sub-regional frameworks like BIMSTEC, BBIN, and
engagements with Pacific Islands [through Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation and
Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)]. Given the geographical proximity of these nations, their
foreign policies will have a direct impact on India. Further, Chinese collaborations between
these nations and China threaten India’s role as a ‘net security provider’.
• The Ministry of External Affairs has set up Indo-Pacific Division, which brings India’s
administrative and diplomatic focus on the region especially at a time when China is seeking
to maintain its dominance in the area.
Economic
• India’s Blue Economy Initiative: India’s focus on the blue economy is regarded as a multiplier
positive action with respect to the Indo-Pacific region. It will give credibility to India’s
approach as not merely as an anti-China force but a serious actor which has stakes in the
region's overall developmental program.
• Japan also identifies Indo-pacific as the center of the global economy. India-Japan
collaborative effort ‘Asia-Africa Growth Corridor’ is regarded as an alternative to China’s Belt
and Road Initiative.
Maritime Security
• Navy maritime strategy “Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy”, which
takes into account the geopolitical environment and its implications on India.
• India has initiated the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and SAGAR(or Security and Growth in
All in the Region). These are to increase maritime security in the region, which is known for its
rich natural resource profile and significant traffic of container ships. The region is also home
to vital chokepoints such as the Gulf of Aden, Bab-el-Mandeb, Mozambique Channel, and the
Strait of Hormuz.
• Similarly, the Malabar exercise signifies the importance of security in Indo-Pacific water as
noted by Harsh V Pant.
Conclusion
With the emergence of ‘Indo-Pacific’ as a new geographic space, India’s role is crucial. India’s approach
or response towards ‘Indo-Pacific’ is shaped by a new strategic environment coinciding with its own
strategic and developmental priorities and the region’s aspiration of rule-based and peaceful Indo-
Pacific.
5 (e) “The growing closeness between India and Israel will strengthen the cause of Palestine.”
Comment. (10 marks, 150 words)
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Introduction
Since India gained independence, it has supported the cause of the Palestine state. With the
establishment of diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992, India has been balancing its relations with
Israel and Palestine. However, post-2014, there is a growing closeness between India and Israel.
Body
However, Palestine is not concerned about India’s growing closeness with Israel. A member of the
Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee remarked that improved relations between
Israel and India could help Palestine.
• Growing ties gives India has more leverage with Israel and it can pressure Israel in favor of
Palestine.
• According to the Palestinian leadership, India enjoys wider acceptance in the global
community. This is reflected in greater engagement with ASEAN and participation in forums
like BRICS.
• Another official pointed at the moral standing India enjoys in the international community
and this benefits the cause of Palestine.
• India’s role has been acknowledged and appreciated by the Palestinian leadership. Palestine’s
ambassador to India Alhaijaanoted that “India has remained steadfast with the Palestinian
cause since its inception”. This was reaffirmed on multiple occasions including during the visit
of PLO Leader Mahmoud Abbas. India has consistently voted in favor of Palestinians at
international forums.
• Palestinian leadership acknowledges that if Jordan is building a relationship with Israel, there
is no reason for India not to do so.
• A senior diplomatic advisor to the Palestinian President remarked that they need India to
maintain its support to the right of Palestinian people to self-determination and statehood.
• Harsh V Pant has pointed out that there is no real change in India’s policy towards Palestine
despite the growing ties with Israel. India traditionally believes in the 2-state solution and
supports the establishment of sovereign Palestine.
In the past, during the Cold War era, India was successful in maintaining relations with both Saudi
Arabia and Iran, which are regional rivals. Thus, India’s balancing act between Palestine and Israel can
be handled with care.
However, closer ties with Israel could mean dilution of India’s stand towards Palestine. For instance,
when the PLO chief visited India in 2017, India no doubt stated support for a two-state solution but
there was no reference being made to ‘East Jerusalem’ as its capital. This indicates India is recognizing
the complexities involved and the need for a settlement regarding Jerusalem. Another instance could
be India’s abstention from voting regarding UNHRC investigative committee. Palestine noted that this
is a departure from India’s traditional position.
India must note that West Asia is not an easy diplomatic region and according to Manoj Joshi, India
needs to be careful in West Asia to ensure maximum gain for itself while avoiding the political
minefields there.
Conclusion
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The increased engagement with Israel since 2014 signifies India's unwillingness to view its relation
with Israel through the traditional Palestine prism. Yet, India has reiterated its support for Palestine
coexisting with Israel. Growing ties with Israel is only a greater sense of pragmatism with no
fundamental change.
6 (a) Describe briefly China’s ‘One Belt One Road (OBOR)’ Initiative and analyze India’s major
concerns. (20 marks)
Introduction
The One Belt One Road (“OBOR”) initiative of China is a project that seeks to improve connectivity and
cooperation among Asian, African, and European nations. The expanding role undertaken by China
especially in South Asia has made India apprehensive, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
(“CPEC”), which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
Body
OBOR
OBOR Initiative is described as a mega infrastructure project and as a connectivity plan integrating
territory, cyberspace, and the financial arena covering several countries with China at its heart. The
OBOR has two main components: (a) The land component or Silk Road Economic Belt (“SERB”) and (b)
the maritime component or Maritime Silk Road (“MSR”).
• From an economic viewpoint, OBOR is an effort to improve economic growth and aims to
make China a world leader.
• From a diplomatic view, it is China’s grand plan to use the infrastructural and financial
advantage to forge strong diplomatic ties.
• From a strategic viewpoint, it seeks to break through China’s security dilemma.
India has expressed its concerns regarding OBOR, which are as follows:
1. There are more geopolitical elements and very little economic basis for OBOR and it only leads
to countries ceding sovereignty. For example, Sri Lanka formally handed over the Hambantota
port to China.
2. OBOR is not based on principles of good governance, rule of law, and transparency.
3. OBOR increases Chinese presence around India, especially in its immediate neighborhood.
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BCIM was founded in 1999 but the intention to subsume it under the OBOR framework makes India
believe that it would compromise the multilateral rationale of BCIM.
1. The Doklam standoff has increased the mistrust and questioned the intent of China’s
connectivity projects.
2. Concern over the Chinese role in backing northeast insurgencies, narcotics trafficking among
others was expressed by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.
India’s main opposition to OBOR is due to the CPEC, which is based on many reasons.
1. The most important reason being that CPEC passes the disputed area of Gilgit-Baltistan. This
is viewed as violating India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. S. Jaishankar in Raisina
Dialogue (2016) noted that any unilateral approach in connectivity projects would only
deepen the existing divide. Shyam Saran in “Looking China in the Eye” writes that India has
no option but to oppose OBOR given the territorial implications.
2. China's presence through CPEC is more ‘geopolitical’ than ‘geo-economic. It is believed that
this would develop into a strategic military alliance against India in the future. It will increase
the Chinese military presence in Gilgit Baltistan.
3. CPEC would make China an indirect stakeholder in the Kashmir conflict between India and
Pakistan.
4. CPEC will provide China with strategic access to the Arabian Sea. India believes that Gwadar
port construction has no commercial basis.
1. Some International Relations analysts opine that MSR is a Chinese attempt to establish a
‘string of pearls around India consisting of ports that could be used for military purposes.
2. Chinese investment in Tanzania, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar among others in Indian Ocean
Region form strategic encirclement of India. This means China can wield higher influence in
the Indian Ocean region.
THEC is a bilateral proposal between China and Nepal. This is emerging as an alternative to landlocked
Nepal.
Conclusion
The Indian government needs to analyze the components of OBOR and counter CPEC through various
diplomatic, economic and strategic efforts. For instance, cooperation with QUAD nations,
development of Chabahar port in Iran, Project Mausam among others.
6 (b) What are the current issues in Brahmaputra River water sharing between India and China? (15
marks)
Introduction
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River Brahmaputra, also known as the Yarlung Tsangpo originates in the Chemayungund glacier of
Tibet. It flows through China, India, and Bangladesh. River Brahmaputra is of great importance to India
and thus, Chinese activity over the river has been a matter of concern for India.
Body
China is an upstream riparian state while India is a downstream riparian of River Brahmaputra. China
has used its upstream position for its economic and political gains. Brahma Chellaney calls this China
establishing its “water hegemony”.
The following are the current issues between India and China in respect of Brahmaputra river sharing:
1. China is the world's most aggressive dam builder. China has embarked upon a series of dam-
building and water-diversion projects such Lalho Hydel Project among others. The water
diversion results in loss to downstream countries as Ramaswamy Iyer notes. In addition to
this, it also impacts natural flooding, nutrient-rich sediment, and marine ecology.
2. China’s usage pollutes the river rendering them unfit for use. The Siang river has turned
muddy and blackened in 2017 making it unfit for human consumption and agriculture. This,
in the long run, could impact food security.
3. China has access to valuable data that help to manage floods and fluctuations downstream.
However, posttheDoklam standoff, it was reported that China withheld hydrological data for
Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers.
4. China has not signed any water agreement with India. Brahma Chellaney warns that no water
sharing agreement and not sharing of data gives China an upper hand to use water as a
political weapon. China has used this by stating it would dam the Brahmaputra if India
breaches Indus Water Treaty.
5. China has not ratified the UN Convention on Non-Navigable Use of International
Watercourses 1997.
6. India and China have no mutually agreed dispute settlement mechanism on water sharing of
transboundary rivers as well. Also, while India prefers bilateral resolution, China has been
recently calling for a multilateral solution to the water-sharing issues.
7. The issue of river disputes has been overshadowed by a border dispute. Also, while concerns
regarding the Chinese water diversion plan are genuine, Indian administrative lapses in
effectively pursuing a solution to the dispute according to SonaliMittra.
Resolution
1. India needs to show firmness in negotiations with China on water rights as it did in the case
of the Doklam issue.
2. India could lead a counter coalition of countries that share transboundary rivers with China
and forge a common institutional set-up for better management of transboundary rivers.
3. India needs to establish itself as a responsible upper riparian state and resolve the Teesta river
issue.
Conclusion
Bramha Chellaney notes that India needs to be very diplomatic in its move to deal with China about
transboundary river management. It must prevent China from ‘weaponizing’ its upper riparian status.
India and China could look at the possibility of a solution or joint venture similar to Brazil-Paraguay’s
joint venture of Itaipu Dam.
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6 (c) Analyze the recent trends in India’s role in the UN peacekeeping operations. (15 marks)
Introduction
UN Peacekeeping (“UNP”) is a unique and dynamic collective security instrument to help countries
worn by conflict to create conditions for lasting peace. It is based on the consent of parties,
impartiality, and non-use of force except in self-defense. It has been successful in creating desired
situations and its role is acknowledged.
Body
India’s contribution began with the inception of UNP. From the Korean crisis up to the Libyan crisis,
India has participated in 49 missions. In the beginning, India’s role was largely pertaining to sending
military troops as it did during the Korean crisis or Congo crisis.
However, the accomplishments from past missions have raised the expectations and are now
undertaking a wide variety of complex tasks. These tasks go beyond ‘peacekeeping’ and into ‘peace-
building, which includes:
Conclusion
Thus, from the mere deployment of forces to peacebuilding and recovery to a large role in suggesting
reforms, India’s role has widened. India has a greater role to play when it comes to the introduction
of reforms in peacekeeping. It should take advantage of its rising global status and take lead in making
peacekeeping more effective.
7 (a) Examine the increasing significance of maritime security in India’s foreign policy. (20 marks)
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Introduction
Sardar KM Pannikar had foresaw the importance of maritime affairs for India even before
independence. He wrote that India’s security lies in the Indian Ocean. These words have become
relevant with the Indian Ocean taking central stage in the 21st century as Foreign Secretary S
Jaishankar puts it.
Body
Admiral RK Dhawan notes that there is a shift in worldview from Euro-Atlantic to Indo-Pacific, and
this calls for greater focus on India’s maritime security. Maritime security is a multifaceted issue and
is central to India’s interest for a plethora of reasons, which are
• India’s unique maritime geography, which puts India at the center of the Indian ocean.
Important chokepoints (Cape of Good Hope, Malacca strait, Bab-el-Mandeb, etc.) are
equidistant from India.
• India’s maritime economic activities have increased. India has overwhelming reliance on seas
for trade (at least 90% in volume).
• Maritime investments in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, scientific research stations
(Maitri in Antarctica)
• Energy security: Nearly 80% of crude oil is imported by sea. The offshore gas field contributes
to 80% of India's domestic gas production.
• Resource: The Indian Ocean is a potential source of minerals including rare earth metals.
• Overseas Indians: Around 99% of Persons of Indian Origin reside in coastal states.
• Traditional threats: Disputes with other nation-states. In wake of increased Chinese presence
in the Indian Ocean through port development (in Sri Lanka, Tanzania, etc.), naval base
establishment in Djibouti among others, maritime security is crucial. As KM Pannikar puts “if
India’s position in the ocean becomes weak…her freedom will be at the mercy of that country
that controls the Indian ocean.”
• Increase in non-traditional threats such as piracy (especially along the African coast; Gulf of
Aden is an important trading route), terrorism at and through the sea (Mumbai attacks),
smuggling, drug trafficking, illegal migration, transnational crimes among others.
• The livelihood of local communities, which depends on fishing. Example: Dispute with Sri
Lanka and Pakistan
• Environmental concerns: Natural disasters like Tsunami, oil spills, the impact of climate
change on the marine ecosystem.
Harsh V Pant notes that India has come out of its continental mindset and focusing on the Indian
Ocean. India’s response to the increasing significance of maritime security in the following manner:
• Increased bilateral activities with maritime neighbors such as Maldives, Bangladesh, South
Africa, Singapore, island nations, ASEAN nations among others.
• Multilateral initiatives or engagements such as BIMSTEC, IORA, IONS, ASEAN, ReCAAP, SAGAR,
CGPCS, Western Pacific Naval Symposium, naval exercises (such as Malabar).
• Cooperation with QUAD nations.
• India’s Blue Economy Initiatives in the indo-pacific and engagement with the small island
countries signifies India’s growing interest in maritime security and linking it to the political
economy of the region.
Each of these is an effort to build and strengthen India’s position in the region as a ‘net security
provider’ in the region.
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Conclusion
Harsh V Pant states that while India has taken steps but now it needs to pass the test of
implementation. As former President Pranab Mukherji notes, “nation’s wellbeing is intricately linked
to the seas, not only for trade but also how it faces threats to its own security”.
7 (b) Write a brief note on India’s interests in West Asia. (15 marks)
Answer:
Introduction
West Asia is one of the most volatile and sensitive regions in the world marked by historical injustices,
intra-regional rivalries, and competition. India has historical ties with West Asia but modern India
lacked a comprehensive outlook towards West Asia. In 2016, Dr. S. Jaishankar noted "If the eastern
front is building upon longstanding policy, the western one is relatively more recent conceptually…”.
Body
Post-independence, India has strategic interests in West Asia, which are as follows:
Energy
Chinmaya Gharekhan notes that India has a big stake in the region, especially for energy security.
• West Asia meets a major share of India’s energy needs contributing to over 60% of India’s oil
imports.
• It provides for 85% of our LNG requirements.
• Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of crude oil.
• Iran is also a major energy security partner.
Security
According to C Rajamohan, West Asia is part of India’s extended neighborhood. Continued peace and
stability are of strategic interest to India.
• Both West Asia and India are sufferers of terrorism and fundamentalism. In light of this,
cooperation and coordination in this area are significant. For example, India-UAE
Comprehensive Security Partnership.
• India’s attempt to make terrorism a key global issue and passing of the Comprehensive
Convention of International Terrorism at the UN requires the support of West Asian nations.
• UAE has extradited several terror suspects and fugitive economic offenders to India. For
example, Christian Michel and others related to the Augusta helicopter scam.
• Oman has been a defense and anti-piracy partner for India.
• Israel is the third-largest defense supplier after the USA and Russia.
• Further, with the increasing importance of maritime security and gaining prominence of ‘Indo-
Pacific’, relations with West Asia are significant. For example, India will use the Duqm port for
military requirements.
Economy
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• West Asia along with the North African region is India’s largest trading partner.
• In 2008, UAE surpassed China to become our biggest trading partner.
• India is seen as a viable investment destination. For example, UAE-India Infrastructure
Investment Fund. aims to provide 75 billion USD to support India’s infrastructure in railways,
roads, port airports, and corridors.
• India supports the region through humanitarian measures such as food security in
• India-Israel cooperates over arid agricultural technologies, science, start-ups, and cyberspace.
• They have a significant impact on the Indian economy through remittances, which amounts
to close to 3% of India’s GDP.
• They are India’s goodwill ambassadors.
• Saudi Arabia acknowledged the contribution of the Indian community and appreciated their
peaceful and hard-working nature.
Miscellaneous
• India and West Asian nations have similar views on the multipolar world order.
• In India’s bid for permanent membership in UNSC, the West Asian nation's support is crucial
for India’s bid for UNSC permanent membership especially given that Turkey is part of the
Coffee Club.
Conclusion
West Asia is not an easy diplomatic region and according to Manoj Joshi, India needs to be careful in
West Asia to ensure maximum gain for itself while avoiding the political minefields there. Jitendra
Nath notes that given the conflicts and volatility of the region, Indian diplomacy needs to approach
West Asia with pragmatism, delicacy, and sophistication.
7 (c) How is the current standoff between the USA and Iran affecting India’s energy security? (15
marks)
Introduction
India and Iran have strong bilateral relations. Energy is the most important component of bilateral
trade and Iran significantly contributes to India’s energy security. However, the US-Iran tensions will
cast a shadow on India-Iran cooperation.
Body
The issue of nuclear Iran, the withdrawal of the USA from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(“JCPOA”), and the USA’s unilateral imposition of sanctions on Iran have global implications. As for
India, it puts India in a difficult position given India’s strategic partnership with the US on one hand
and strong ties with Iran on the other.
USA-Iran tensions have direct implication on India’s energy security for the following reasons:
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1. India’s dependence on crude oil imports to meets its domestic consumption is extremely high
at 95%. Except between 2011-2015, Iran has been in the top 3 suppliers of crude oil to India.
2. India also buys natural gas from Iran and total energy imports from Iran account for close to
80-85%.
3. Sanctions imply that Indian companies will have to stop buying Iranian oil or resort to a Rupee-
payment mechanism. Indian companies have decided to not place further orders for oil import
from Iran due to the sanctions.
4. The absence of Iranian oil in the market could potentially shoot up the prices and this leads to
an increase in India’s import bills.
Given this scenario, India must explore the different short-term and long-term options available to it.
• India could buy Iranian oil using informal arrangements. e. devise a Rupee-payment
mechanism or India should negotiate with Iran for the rupee-rial system.
• Collaborate with EU, Russia, and China through the INSTEX mechanism.
• Former President Pranab Mukherjee noted that India can't take any decision to reduce
imports from Iran drastically. Given that India’s support is crucial for the USA to balance the
rise of China, it must use this leverage to seek exemption from the USA. India can contemplate
lowering the tariff for US Goods in exchange for the waiver.
• India, as a major regional player, must exercise leverage in platforms like SCO or BRICS to
create a balance of forces.
• At the same time, India must explore alternative sources of energy, diversify its energy
sources, and increases strategic reserves.
Conclusion
Pursuing the above-mentioned options will help India not to openly defy the US and at the same time,
ensure its relations are not completely derailed. The Iran-US standoff highlights the need for India to
adopt approaches to not only maintain its strategic autonomy in the area of energy security but also
in overall foreign policy.
Introduction
World order denotes the distribution of power and authority. The phrase ‘new world order was
popularized by President George HW Bush stating that American leadership will herald a “new world
order”.
Body
Henry Kissinger also notes that the world at present an at ‘inflection point’ and believes future order
would multi-polar. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also noted that there is a major shift
in the international system and a new world order (led by Russia, China, and India) is taking its place.
In wake of these developments, different nations have their vision of new world order but there is
consensus that it would be shaped in Asia.
India’s Vision
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As for India's vision Shyam Saran points out, it seeks a multipolar world order with multipolar Asia
and India aspires to emerge as a defining pole. This is because of the following reasons:
• Shyam Saran notes that India views itself as one of the petals of the jambudvipa.
• India’s interest will be most aligned with the multipolar order. India wants room for maneuver
without being constrained by a hegemon or any major power bloc.
• Given that Indian interests are diverse, it benefits by aligning with different powers than just
one power.
• As Rajiv Sikri states India views itself not as a balancer or swing state but a leading state.
• Indian culture is innately cosmopolitan in nature. India believes in the values like cosmopolitan
world order, “SarveBhavantuSukhinh” and Panchsheel. It rejects absolutes and extreme
positions.
• Shyam Saran notes the world is more densely interconnected, destinies of countries are
intertwined, and challenges the world confronts cut regional and national boundaries. These
can be climate change, pandemics, drug trafficking, transnational crimes. And the emergence
of newer technologies that demand international collaboration.
• India’s vision of new world order would be rule-based order with legitimate global governance
and free from terrorism.
Given that India’s vision of new world order is based on a polycentric construct with multiple actors
and absence of hegemony, India has pursued the following policy:
Conclusion
There is little doubt that the world is at an inflexion point. There is a shift of balance of power from
the Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific, which determines the future of the 21st century. However, India calls
for an order which emphasizes openness, inclusiveness, and rule-based order. In wake of this, the
choices India makes have a bearing.
8 (b) Critically examine India’s position on South China Sea Dispute. (15 marks)
Introduction
South China Sea (SCS) is one of the most contentious maritime conflicts in the Asia Pacific region. The
SCS is part of the western Pacific Ocean in Southeast Asia. Given that it connects the Indian Ocean to
the Pacific Ocean, accounts for a major part of global trade, and its huge energy reserves make it
strategically important.
Body
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The SCS dispute began with China rendering its ‘Nine-dash line’ and claiming most of the Sea. It was
contested by the other nations, particularly the Philippines. In 2016, the Arbitration Tribunal ruled in
favor of the Philippines and rejected China’s maritime claims.
While India is not a party to the dispute, few aspects concern India.
1. C. Raja Mohan notes that the trade-transit route of the South China Sea is vital to India’s
growing trade with East and Southeast Asia.
2. China’s behavior is aimed at establishing itself as a dominant power player in the region. And
this could increase the assertiveness of China in the Indian Ocean Region
3. India has energy interests in SCS and with China militarizing disputed islands, it could impact
freedom of navigation.
Abhijit Singh states that India should strike balance between its maritime security imperatives in the
Indian Ocean and its legal stance.
India needs to strengthen diplomatic and naval strategic policies with key Southeast Asian and extra-
regional states particularly Vietnam. This naval strategy helps with protecting freedom of navigation
in the South China Sea.
Yet at the same time, Suhasini Haider notes India must not go for militarization as India shares a land
boundary with China and potential land threat.
Conclusion
While India maintains that the South China Sea was “part of global commons…we firmly stand for
freedom of navigation… in accordance with international law, notably UNCLOS”, proactive yet
measured engagement with the issue is in long term interest of India with major geo-strategic and
economic interests in the region.
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8 (c) Given the recent developments in the region, do you think that there is a need to change India’s
‘No First Use’ nuclear policy? (15 marks)
Introduction
Regional geopolitical realities such as the Pathankot attack, Doklam standoff, Pulwama attack among
other incidents have a significant bearing on India’s commitment towards ‘No First Use’ (“NFU”).
Body
The NFU refers to a pledge or policy by a nuclear power that it would not use nuclear weapons as a
means of warfare unless the adversary uses nuclear weapons. This means that nuclear weapons will
be used only in retaliation against a nuclear attack.
In 1999, India came out with an explicit nuclear doctrine that committed, among other things, to NFU.
In the words of former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon, doctrine emphasized “minimal
deterrence, no first use and non-use against non-nuclear-weapon states”.
However, there is a debate on whether or not India must continue with its ‘No First Use’ (“NFU”) policy
between moderates and expansionists. This debate has been revisited in light of changing geopolitical
scenarios.
The Moderates argue for the continuation of the NFU policy for the following reasons:
• According to K.Subrahmanya, deterrence is more about perception and if the other side
perceives a survivable nuclear capability, deterrence will hold.
• Manpreet Sethi also points that an advantage of NFU is that it obviates the need for nuclear
weapon infrastructure. It puts the onus of escalation to the adversary without preventing
India from defending itself. Further, NFU will allow India to maintain its nuclear force in a ‘de-
mated state’.
• India’s image as a responsible nuclear power is crucial to its nuclear diplomacy. It is India’s
nuclear restraint that has allowed it to get accepted into the global mainstream and become
members of the Missile Technology Control Regime and the Wassenaar Agreement. It is
necessary for India’s membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and UNSC. And revoking the
NFU policy harms India’s image.
• Admiral VergheseKoithara notes that NFU reduces the difficulties associated with a
complicated command-and-control system.
• According to Rakesh Sood, the first use of nuclear weapons would require a massive increase
in India’s nuclear delivery capabilities.
• Bharat Karnad notes that NFU policy is possible only if a nation has extreme confidence in the
survivability of its nuclear forces and the efficacy of its crisis management system. He argues
that crisis management is not India’s forte and the current system is not fully equipped to
handle nuclear strike emergencies.
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• Professor PR Chari, though not an expansionist, notes the insufficiency of NFU policy. He
notes that NFU policy is ineffective in dealing with Pakistan, which tries to lower its threshold
with Tactical nuclear weapons.
• Mr. Clary and Mr. Narang argue India’s adoption of the option to eliminate Pakistan's
strategic weapons when it deems the risk of a Pakistani first strike requires no change in our
declared nuclear doctrine.
• Many scholars contend that more than Pakistan, China is the main threat to India. While its
military might increase with time, India can no longer afford to hold idealist positions in
nuclear weaponry.
Conclusion
The Ministry of External Affairs has reaffirmed India’s commitment to NFU Policy in 2020 stating that
there has been no change in India’s nuclear doctrine. All doctrines need to be periodically reviewed
and India’s case is no exception. Given the rapidly changing environment, it is imperative to think
about all matters strategically. However, India must be cognizant of the costs involved in doing so.
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