Dept Dt Ft Et |Et| |Et|/Dt

Anesthesi
208 130 78 78
a 37.5
Cariopul 175 210 -35 35 20
Emergenc
589 650 -61 61
y 10.35654
OBS 391 380 11 11 2.813299

Pathology 68 90 -22 22
32.35294
Physio 71 110 -39 39 54.92958
Radiol 277 200 77 77 27.79783
Surgery 950 810 140 140 14.73684
2729 2580 25.06088 avg=mape

Spring 190
Summer 252
Fall 180 2022
Winter 142
total 764

Spring 199
Summer 271
Fall 192 2023
Winter 154
total 816

Spring of
2024?
First step Aggregate forcast of 2024 = 871.488 872
Trend 6.806283

2nd step Per season forecast of 2024 avg

218 not correct because there is seasonality

Actual Fore= Avg forcast * S.I Spring S.I actual Demand / Average Demand
218 0.997494 199.5 fall is coming twice hence we
= 217.4536 Spring S.I 0.997494
Average Demand is taken with the Season whose Seasonal Index is bein
fall is coming twice hence we divide each instnce by 2

whose Seasonal Index is being taken is in the middle

q 10 )

Quarter -8
Number of connections in thousands 8

Trend =

Year 3 Forecast =

Forecast / season

Forecast A season 3

Seasonal Index
[(11/2) +10 + 11 + 13 + (16/2)]/4
11.8

John rivera Question )

 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
9 11 10 11 13 16 12

Number of connections in thousands

18
16
14
Number of connects

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Quarter

Year 1 total 38 Year 2 total 52

(52-38)/38 100 0.37

F3 52x1.37
71.2
71.2/4 17.8
Seasonl index of A 11/11.8 0.93
17.8xS.I (a) 17.8 x 0.93 16.5

Actual demand / avg demand / season

-2 -1
C 5$
D 80 units / month
960 units / year

Then EOQ 6144

= 78.38367177 copies / order Average inventory 39.19183588

Inventory turns 2.041241452 per month

 60,000,000 rev closing inv 20000
2000 s.p
30000 units sold

Avg inv 35000

1.1666666667 avg flow time

Inventory turno 0.857143 times per year

Associates managers partners

Average invento 200 60 20
Flow time 4 6 10
50 10 2

Inventory turns 92.30062 30.04779

per unit cogs 3 3
SP 4 4
COGS 11943.7 1634.6
holding cost 30% 30%
3583.11 490.38
38.82 16.32

S.P Demand Cost Ordering c Q* I weeks number of orders

1.25 500 0.5 7 15% 50 11.57275

2160.2468995

total order cost 81.00926

Holding cost 81.00926

weekly cogs 250

Flow rate 50 bags / month demand 600

Cost 25 cost 20
order cost 85 order cost 2000
Holding cost 1 per bag / month holding 1
Cost of capital 2% Cost of capi 0.02

eoq 75.27727

600 7.970534 cost 15000 cost 12000

 37.63863 holding 677.4954 holdin cost 5040
b) 0.752773 order 677.4954 order cost 2000
16354.99
c) 56.45795

cost on avg 75
holding cha 15%
week 52

Demand 360
holding cos 1 360
Order cost 100

268.3282

1.86339

160.9969 order cost

mean 2500
SD 224
cost 10
order cost 5
LT 10 weeks
weeks 52

EOQ 100
`
Group A
q2
Q2) MM1 model Fast copier slow copier
λ=4 lamda 4 4
cost of em 15 mew 10 6
roh 0.4 0.666667
L 0.67 2.00
W 0.166667 hours 0.5 hours
now we will convert in dollars
W in dollar 2.5 employee 7.5 employee
10 hours 30 hours

Rental 15 4
25 hour 34 hour

Group A Lamda 40 / hour

q4 mew 60 / hour
mm1 model a)
roh 0.666667 <1 b)
L 2 W 0.05 hour
Ls 0.666667 this is 3 min
Lq 1.333333 Ws 1 min
Wq 2 min

c) pi o + pi 1 + pi 2 + pi3
q5) L 150 Customers 1000
W 1.8 hours Hours ope 12
Lamda 83.33333
c)
Queuing thoery problems
group A
Q1 supermarket wala cost per min wait
lamda 18 per hour cost per cash register
ws 4 mins
mew 15 per hour
model mms
roh cannot be more than 1
s 1 2 3
roh 1.2 0.6 0.4
lq -2.7 0.675 0.0933333333333334
wq -0.15 0.0375 0.00518518518518519
wq in mins -9 2.25 0.311111111111111
W -5 6.25 4.31111111111111
W in $ -1.25 1.5625 1.07777777777778
cost of waiting -22.5 28.125 19.4
cost per service 20 40 60
Total cost -2.50000000000001 68.125 79.4

example 15 ambulance calls

lamda 20 per hour

mew 3 per hour
pi s 0.01
roh 6.66666666667
s 14

Managing supply with demand book

Question 8.4 (gas station)
a)
lamda 20 per hour
mew 12 per hour
s 6
roh 1.66666666667
pi s 0.006 from table

b)
lamda (1-pi s)
customers served every hour 19.88 per hour
477.12 per day
turned away 0.12 per hour
2.88 perr day
 0.25
20

4
0.3
0.017143
0.000952
0.057143
4.057143
1.014286
18.25714
80
98.25714
Question 8.6
lamda 20 per hour BCC model
mew 12 per hour model
lamda upon mew 1.666666667
a) Pi s ?
Pi 4 0.0624 from erlang table
6.24%
b) how many customers enter the system lamda (1-Pi s)
18.752
8
150.016

c) how many reje 1.248 per hour

9.984 per day
49.92 in $s per day

Example 3 Drive in Banking Queuing Theory Book

Lamda 10 per hour

Model mm1
mew 15 per hour
utilization of the Service providerroh 0.666666666667 <1 hence we can proceed
a) 33% idle this much of the time

b) Lq 1.333333333333
L 2
Ls = roh is in mm1

c) W
littles law
0.2 hour
12 minutes

d) 10

Example 9 Bank Tellers

model mms
Lamda 80 / hour
mew 50 / hour
s 2
roh 0.8

a) L 4.44
 Lq roh / ( 1 - roh ) * p(j>=s)
Lq 2.84
Ls Lamda / mew
Ls 1.6

b) w 0.0555 hours
3.33 mins
 3 agents 3 calls, no call holding hence BCC
MGS

lamda (1-Pi s)
how many calls fabulous 4 takes per hour
hours worked every day
daily revenue of Fab 4

Theory Book

hence we can proceed

much of the time
Matching supply with demand an intro
q4.9)
Resource utilization = Actual Flow Rate / available resource capacity

36
 Proces Due Latene
Jobs Wait time Job completition time
s times time ss

Marketi
45 0 46 60 -15
ng
Account
150 45 195 180 15
ing
Stats 90 195 285 240 45
Operati
60 285 345 300 45
on
Average 86.25 131.25 217.75 195 22.5

Order Time since order arrived in hours Estimated Processing time Due time
1 12 10 12
2 10 3 8
3 7 15 18
4 3 9 20
5 1 7 21
FCFS
jobs Process time wait time job comp time due time lateness time since order arrived
1 10 0 10 12 -2 12
2 3 10 13 8 5 10
3 15 13 28 18 10 7
4 9 28 37 20 17 3
5 7 37 44 21 23 1
average 8.8 17.6 26.4 15.8 10.6 6.6

SPT
jobs Process time wait time job comp time due time lateness time since order arrived
2 3 0 3 8 -5 10
5 7 3 10 21 -11 1
4 9 10 19 20 -1 3
1 10 19 29 12 17 12
3 15 29 44 18 26 7
average 8.8 12.2 21 15.8 5.2 6.6

EDD
jobs Process time wait time job comp time due time lateness time since order arrived
2 3 0 3 8 -5 10
1 10 3 13 12 1 12
3 15 13 28 18 10 7
4 9 28 37 20 17 3
5 7 37 44 21 23 1
average 8.8 16.2 25 15.8 9.2 6.6

EDD
jobs Process time wait time job comp time due time lateness time since order arrived
2 3 0 3 8 -5 10
1 10 3 13 12 1 12
3 15 3 18 18 0 7
 4 9 3 12 20 -8 3
5 7 12 19 21 -2 1
1 10 19 29 12 17 12
3 15 29 44 18 26 7
average 8.8 12.6 21.4 15.8 5.6 6.6
Flow time
22
23
35
40
45
33

Flow time
13
11
22
41
51
27.6

Flow time
13
25
35
40
45
31.6

Flow time
13
25 stop
25 stop
15
20
41
51
28
 debur heat treat
job start finish start finish
1 0 2 2 8
2 2 5 8 13
3 5 12 13 17
4 12 15 17 25
5 15 16 25 30
6 16 24 30 32

job debur totalHT

1 2 6
2 3 5 5 1 2
3 7 4 5 1 4
4 3 8
5 1 5 the make span for these both will be the same,
6 8 2

job debur HT
5 1 5
1 2 6
2 3 5
4 3 8
3 7 4
6 8 2
 4 3 6
2 3 6

r these both will be the same, make the gantt chart