MATRIC NO: 205885

NAME: TASLIMAH SANNI

LEVEL: 400

LECTURER IN CHARGE: PROF FAGBEMI

QUESTION:
Population growth is the numerical change in the size of a region’s population between two
periods and the growth is usually expressed in percentage. With reference to the historical
overview of population growth in Nigeria and factors contributing to population growth,
give your opinion.
1.0 INTRODUCTION

Nigeria, the vibrant heart of West Africa, pulsates with a growing energy that mirrors its rapidly
expanding population. With over 227 million people, Nigeria has become the most populous
nation on the African continent, surpassing Ethiopia. This remarkable demographic shift has
unfolded over a relatively short period, posing both challenges and opportunities for the nation's
future.

This discussion will embark on a journey to explore the historical landscape of population
growth in Nigeria. We will delve into the key factors that have fueled this surge, examining
social, economic, and cultural influences. By understanding these drivers, we can gain valuable
insights into the potential implications for Nigeria's development trajectory. Will this population
boom translate into a flourishing economic powerhouse, or will it strain resources and exacerbate
existing inequalities?

This exploration is a critical step towards formulating well-informed policies and strategies that
can help Nigeria navigate the complexities of a growing population. By examining the
opportunities and challenges presented by this demographic shift, we can contribute to shaping a
future where Nigeria's human capital becomes a catalyst for sustainable development and shared
prosperity.

2.0 DEFINITION OF POPULATION

Population is a critical factor in the development plans of any civilized society for effective
countries. Steering a country towards prosperity is like navigating a ship. Knowing the exact
number of citizens allows the government to chart an effective course. With a clear picture of the
population, resources like healthcare facilities, schools, and infrastructure projects can be
strategically distributed to meet the needs of every community. This ensures everyone has access
to the building blocks of a fulfilling life.

In everyday language, the word “population” means the number of person living in a country or
in a given geographical area at any given time. Population growth rate is the rate at which a
given population multiplies itself. Some economists believe that a rapidly expanding demand for
goods and provided ample opportunities for the investment of savings which will in turn
stimulate a high level of economic activity. They believe that a slow rate or population growth or
a static population growth limits the opportunities for investment and causes economic
stagnation and under development.

Population plays a vital role in a nation’s economic development and there is a relationship
between population growth and economic development. Population growth has an impact on per
capital income on the levels of going, on agricultural development, on employment, on social
infrastructure, on labor force, aggregate demand, on capital formation and the environment

3.0 HISTORICAL OVERVIEW AND EVOLUTION OF NIGERIA’S POPULATION

POLICY

The composition of a population at a specific time and place is referred to as its demographic
characteristics. Population growth reflects the overall change in a region's number of inhabitants.
This change is driven by three main factors: birth rates (fertility), death rates (mortality), and
movement of people into or out of the area (migration). Population growth is typically measured
as a percentage and signifies the difference in population size between two points in time.
Nigeria, considered a demographic powerhouse in Sub-Saharan Africa, the world's fastest-
growing region, has consistently experienced population increases, with each census recording a
higher figure than the previous one. has been growing in such a way that the population figure
recorded in every census surpasses the figure of the immediate past census.

The roots of population counting in Nigeria trace back to 1866. The British colonial government
conducted the first census, limited to the Lagos colony and its vicinity. Another one followed in
the colony in 1871. Thereafter, censuses were held every decade. The first nationwide census
took place in 1911. Among the 16.054 million people counted, the Northern Protectorate had the
highest number with 8.12 million, representing roughly 50.1% of the total population. Following
the unification of the Northern and Southern protectorates in 1914, another census occurred in
1921, revealing a population of 18.7 million, with the South accounting for 48%. Subsequent
censuses were conducted in 1931, 1952/53, 1962/63, 1973, 1991, and 2006. The 1952/53 census
stands out as the most widely accepted, recording a population of 30.42 million people in
Nigeria. By 1963, this figure had climbed to 55.7 million. While the 1963 population data faced
legal challenges due to alleged significant irregularities, the Federal Government ultimately
accepted the figures and used them as the foundation for all future demographic calculations and
projections in the country.

In 1973, the government under General Gowon conducted a new census. This census estimated
Nigeria's population to be around 79.8 million, or roughly 80 million people. However, the
results lacked widespread public approval. Consequently, the succeeding administration led by
General Muritala Muhammed and General Olusegun Obasanjo decided to invalidate them. They
opted to continue using the population data from the 1963 census for all demographic
calculations and projections within the country.

There was no census conducted in 1980. However, in 1991, the military government under President
Ibrahim Babangida carried out a census. The initial results placed Nigeria's population at 88,514,501. The
most recent census, conducted in 2006, estimated the country's population to be 140,431,790 million
people, with a breakdown of 71,345,488 males and 60,086,302 females. While another census was
planned for 2016, it was postponed to 2017 due to logistical challenges and insufficient funding.
Nigeria's evident population growth rate raises significant concerns about the population issue in the
country.

4.0 POPULATION GROWTH FACTORS IN NIGERIA

 Cultural Factor

Nigeria's high population growth rate is partly fueled by cultural norms and traditions. These
deeply ingrained beliefs create a social environment that favors large families. In some Nigerian
cultures, large families are seen as a source of wealth, prestige, and security in old age.

One key factor is the strong value placed on children. Many Nigerians, particularly the Igbo
people, view children as a source of love, pride, and social status. This cultural emphasis on large
families is evident in Igbo land, known for its high population density, even predating
colonialism. Another cultural aspect influencing fertility is the agrarian nature of many Nigerian
communities. Subsistence farming, heavily reliant on manual labor, creates a preference for large
families. Children are seen as a valuable source of farm labor, especially in rural areas.

Beyond family size, cultural practices regarding marriage further contribute to population
growth. Polygamy, the practice of having multiple wives, is still observed in some regions.
Additionally, a preference for male children exists in certain cultures, particularly among the
Yoruba and Igbo. This often leads to larger families, as couples continue having children until
they have a son. The belief that male children are superior to females fuels this practice, causing
a significant rise in birth rates. Nigeria's cultural landscape plays a significant role in shaping its
high fertility rates. The deep-rooted value placed on children, the agrarian lifestyle, and the
preference for large families, particularly sons, all contribute to a social environment that
encourages rapid population growth.

 Ignorance and Lack of Education

Nigeria's high population growth rate is further amplified by limited access to education,
particularly among rural and low-income urban populations. Statistics suggest that a significant
portion, around 70%, of Nigerians fall within the illiterate category.

Education plays a crucial role in family planning practices. Studies show a positive correlation
between educational attainment and contraceptive use. Women with higher levels of education,
especially those exposed to population education and sex education, are more likely to adopt
birth control methods. For instance, a 2013 national survey revealed a stark contrast: only 3% of
women with no education used contraception compared to 20% with primary education.
This lack of education creates a breeding ground for fear and superstition. Uninformed
Nigerians, especially those residing in rural areas, might be hesitant to embrace modern methods
of family planning due to these ingrained beliefs. Effectively managing population growth
requires overcoming these barriers and promoting education, particularly regarding family
planning options.

The unmet need for family planning in Nigeria is 23% (World Health Organization, 2022). This
means a significant portion of the population who want to limit family size lack access to
contraception or proper family planning services.

 Religious Influences on Fertility Rates in Nigeria

Religious beliefs and practices undeniably shape attitudes towards family size in Nigeria.
Proponents of some religions hold views that promote high fertility rates. Christianity, for
example, includes the biblical passage urging followers to "be fruitful and multiply" (Genesis
1:28). This scripture is sometimes interpreted as a divine mandate for large families.

Similarly, Islamic teachings can influence fertility choices. While Islam doesn't explicitly
advocate for large families, some interpretations emphasize the importance of family and
procreation.

Nigeria's traditional religions also play a role. Ancestral veneration, a core belief in many
traditions, encourages having numerous children to ensure a strong lineage. The worship of
fertility deities across various regions further highlights the cultural value placed on
childbearing. Conversely, childlessness or having few children was historically seen as negative,
regardless of the cause.

 Immigration and its Impact on Population Distribution

Immigration and emigration patterns influence a country's demographics. Naturally, people tend
to migrate towards areas offering better living conditions. Economic growth and technological
advancements in specific regions act as a magnet, attracting new residents.

This phenomenon is evident in Nigeria. Lagos, a major economic hub, boasts an estimated
population of 14.5 million, significantly higher than Abuja, the capital city. Abuja's population,
while growing at a rate of 5.9%, sits at around 3.2 million in 2020. This disparity highlights the
pull factor of economic opportunities on internal migration patterns within Nigeria.

 Declining Mortality Rate

Life expectancy in Nigeria has increased from 47.6 years in 1970 to 55.2 years in 2023 (World
Bank). This indicates a decrease in deaths, particularly among children. While not directly
causing population growth, a declining mortality rate means more people survive to childbearing
age, potentially contributing to a larger population in the future.

5.0 POPULATION THEORIES

The link between population growth and economic progress has recently gained traction among
economists. The question at hand is whether population growth acts as a booster or a brake on
economic development. To delve deeper into this complex relationship, we will explore six key
theories, or approaches, within the economics of population.

5.1. THE MALTHUSIAN THEORY

In 1798, English clergyman and economist Thomas Malthus published his influential work, "An
Essay on the Principle of Population". Malthus' central concern was the relationship between
population growth and living standards. Malthus argued that population increases exponentially
(geometrically), like 100, 103, 109.09, while food production increases linearly (arithmetically),
like 100, 103, 106. This imbalance, according to Malthus, would eventually lead to resource
scarcity and disaster (famines, wars) if unchecked. Malthus proposed "checks" on population
growth, such as late marriage and moral restraint, to maintain a balance with resource
availability.

However, Malthus' predictions of widespread famine haven't materialized globally due to

technological advancements with improved agricultural techniques leading to higher food
production, efficient transportation systems which allowed for distribution of resources to areas
in need. Another factor is also the industrial revolution which shifted the importance of land (a
fixed factor) and facilitated industrial production.

While Malthusian concerns hold true in some regions with rapid population growth and stagnant
agricultural development, advancements have mitigated the global impact. The example of
Nigeria highlights the ongoing debate about balancing family size with available resources. This
reinforces Malthus' core idea of maintaining a sustainable equilibrium. Malthus' theory has been
heavily debated, with some arguing it overlooks human ingenuity and adaptation. Modern
discussions often focus on population growth in developing countries and its potential impact on
poverty and resource depletion.

Overall, the Malthusian theory remains a significant contribution to population studies, urging
consideration of the relationship between population growth and resource availability for
sustainable development.

5.2. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

The demographic transition model is grounded in real-life population patterns observed in
developed nations. This theory proposes that all countries undergo five distinct stages of
population change.

 Stage One: This initial stage represents a rudimentary state for the country. Both birth
rates and death rates are high, resulting in a slow population increase. Most people reside
in rural areas and rely on underdeveloped agricultural practices for their livelihood. Large
families are seen as a way to bolster meager family income. Children are valued as both
societal and parental assets, often viewed as blessings or predetermined by fate. Various
economic and social factors contribute to the high birth rate. Conversely, the death rate
remains elevated due to a lack of proper nutrition (low-calorie food), inadequate medical
care, and poor hygiene practices. This stage, also known as the "high stationary" (HS)
stage, is characterized by persistently high birth and death rates that remain balanced over
time.
 Stage Two: The second stage marks a period of economic expansion (modernization).
This translates to increased agricultural and industrial output, improved transportation
networks, greater workforce mobility, expanding education, higher incomes, and
advancements in public health measures. These factors collectively lead to a significant
decline in mortality rates, gradually extending life expectancy from below 40 to over 60
years. While the death rate dips, the birth rate remains relatively stable. People see little
reason to limit family size, believing that economic growth will create more job
opportunities, and children can contribute to the family income. As a result of the
declining death rate and stagnant birth rate, population surges at a rapid pace. This stage
is known as the "transitional expansion" (EE) stage in population development.
 Stage Three: This stage represents "late expansion" (LE) in population development. It's
characterized by a decline in birth rates that outpaces the ongoing decrease in death rates.
As a result, population growth slows down. The forces driving modernization and
development ultimately influence fertility to start declining as well.
 Stage Four: This stage signifies "low stationary" (LS) population development. Birth
rates continue to decline, eventually approaching the death rate. Consequently,
population growth slows considerably. As economic momentum builds and people reach
a certain level of income sufficiency, their standard of living improves. Leading sectors
of the economy flourish, driving growth in other areas. This often leads to a preference
for later marriage, and the desire for more children to supplement family income
diminishes. This, combined with the existing low death rate, results in a significant
reduction in the birth rate. Developed countries around the world are currently
experiencing this "low stationary" stage.
  Stage Five:Advanced countries might enter a "decline" (D) stage in population
development. This stage is characterized by a continuous drop in birth rates, even when
death rates have reached a floor (cannot be lowered further). The existence of this stage
in any developed country remains a topic of debate.

5.3. THE OPTIMISTIC VIEW (CORNUCOPIANS)

Optimistic thinkers, often referred to as Cornucopians, argue that population growth, far from
being a harbinger of economic and environmental collapse, is actually a powerful driver of
innovation and problem-solving. They see a larger population as a wellspring of creativity and
progress, not a burden on resources.

At the core of this perspective lies the belief in human ingenuity as the ultimate resource. As
Borden emphasizes, a nation's economic growth hinges on a well-developed labor force – one
with skills, education, and a positive attitude. Cornucopians like Julian Simon take this a step
further, arguing that population growth itself fosters these qualities. They point out that despite
the rapid population rise since the 18th century, the prices of many resources, like metals and
minerals, have actually decreased. This, according to Simon, is a testament to humanity's ability
to innovate in the face of scarcity.

A larger population, Cornucopians argue, provides not just more labor but also more brainpower.
This fuels a more diverse range of ideas and specializations, leading to breakthroughs across
various fields. Shortages of resources, like minerals, metals, or fuel, become incentives for
finding substitutes or exploring new sources. Similarly, food and land scarcity drive the
development of more productive agricultural practices.

It's important to remember that Cornucopians aren't blind to the challenges of population growth.
They simply believe that human potential for problem-solving will outweigh resource
limitations. Their optimism rests on our ability to manage resources efficiently, invest in research
and development, and foster global cooperation to address shared challenges. While some, like
Simon, focus their arguments on economic growth and resource management, the Cornucopian
view ultimately suggests that a larger population, if managed well, can be a source of solutions,
not problems.

5.4. THE OPTIMUM POPULATION THEORY

The optimum population theory proposes an ideal population size for a country. This size
maximizes total output per person (per capita output), considering existing resources and
technological advancements. It represents a state of equilibrium where people enjoy the highest
possible living standards. A nation is considered underpopulated if its population is small relative
to its abundant resources. In this scenario, more people could utilize these resources effectively,
potentially leading to economic growth. Conversely, a country is considered overpopulated when
its population outstrips available resources. This can create fierce competition for necessities,
potentially leading to a decline in living standards. The optimum population is not a fixed
number. It's a dynamic concept that can change over time due to several factors. These include:

 Technological advancements: As technology improves, a country can potentially support

a larger population while maintaining a high standard of living. New methods of resource
extraction, production efficiency, and even alternative resources can all influence the
optimum population size.
 Population structure: The age distribution and skillset of a population also play a role. A
younger population with a high proportion of working-age adults can contribute more to
the economy compared to an older population with a larger dependent population.

Calculating the optimum population for a specific country is complex. Data on resource
availability, technological capabilities, and population demographics is needed. Additionally,
factors like environmental sustainability and resource depletion must be considered. While
achieving an exact optimum population size might not be practical, the theory provides a
valuable framework for understanding the relationship between population growth, resource
utilization, and overall well-being.

5.5. THE PESSIMISTIC VIEW (NE0-MALTHUSIANS)

Echoing Thomas Malthus, Neo-Malthusians fear a resource-scarce future burdened by too many
people. They envision:

 Food shortages: Rapid population growth could outpace food production, leading to
hunger (World Bank Development Report, 1992).
 Resource depletion: More people strain resources like water, fuels, and minerals,
potentially leading to scarcity and conflicts.
 Environmental damage: A larger population translates to more pollution and emissions,
accelerating climate change and harming ecosystems (Kelley, 1988).

Neo-Malthusians go beyond Malthus, highlighting how consumption patterns also play a role.
Even with slower population growth, a rising middle class with growing desires can strain
resources. The World Bank (1992) acknowledges challenges of rapid growth (>2.7% per year) in
developing countries. However, it highlights historical examples where countries managed to
raise incomes despite rapid population increases. The key lies in development strategies that
improve people's lives, not just accommodate population growth.

5.6. THE NEUTRAL VIEW

The neutral view on population growth avoids extremes. It acknowledges Neo-Malthusian
concerns about resource limitations, but recognizes environmental problems often have deeper
social and economic roots. Similarly, population growth isn't seen as the sole reason for slow
economic development; other factors like infrastructure or political instability also play a role.

This neutral perspective finds a middle ground. It recognizes the challenges of a growing
population on resources and the environment, but also believes human ingenuity and
advancements can provide solutions. Ultimately, responsible resource management, sustainable
practices, and addressing global inequalities are crucial for a healthy future. This includes
finding ways to use resources more efficiently, invest in renewable energy, and develop
sustainable agriculture, while also tackling unequal consumption patterns and unfair resource
distribution. By focusing on both population management and sustainability, we can navigate the
complexities of a growing population.

6.0 OPINION AND RECOMMENDATION FOR THE NIGERIAN SITUATION.

The responsibility of a sustainable future relies on our response to our environment’s issues and
its quality. It will be satisfactory if the Nigerian government pays more attention to the factors
affecting the population, especially the influence of religion and its belief systems towards
childbearing. The right decisions made will help prevent the fast growth of population density
and provide the people with conditions to live well enough. The government should think about
settlement development plans to live within the local environment without congesting the cities
searching for a better life freelyi.

Presently, Nigeria made up of 2.35% of the world population, with every 43 rd person calling
himself Nigerian everywhere in the world. According to the Ehrlich equation, (I=PAT), Nigeria
holds 2.35% in the global environmental pollution orbit. Every individual counts in the final
analysis of environmental degradation. This means that the higher the higher the population of
Nigeria, the higher the quota of her contribution to global environmental degradation. Nigeria as
a nation despite its participation in several conference policies, has done little to its own growth
rateii. To date, the Nigerian environmental policy is a mere ritualistic commentary and avenue for
individual private gains. The situation in Nigeria presently is both a domestic and global
challenge that must be confronted to avoid an extreme emergency in the future, like in places
such as India, China and Pakistan where human socio-economic activities have set the
environment against human existence. Some proposed recommendations on how to navigate this
challenge are:

 The federal government should embark on an intensive awareness program to educate the
general populace on reducing children’s number.
 The Federal government should intensify poverty alleviation programs by lowering
corruption, debt burden and providing access to soft loans and grants to its teeming
youthful workforce.
 Improved access to family planning services and ensuring widespread access to family
planning services, including contraceptives and reproductive health care, is vital for
effective population management. Government and non-governmental organizations play
a pivotal role in facilitating such access.
 The need to develop capacities to deliver resources for the basic needs of its populace.
One of the pillars of sustainable development is the social dimension. The Nigerian
government needs to give due attention to developing an all-inclusive population policy
for sustainable development in the context of population growth in Nigeriaiii.
i
Adeyemi, O. O., (2021) the impact of population growth in West Africa: The Nigerian Outlook. irpj.euclid.int accessed on
16th March, 2024.
ii
Ibid.
iii
Cleland J, Bernstein S., Ezeh a., Faundes a, Glasier, A. & Innis J, (2006). Family planning: the unfinished agenda. The
Lancet, 368 (9549), 1810-1827.