Battery OpenCloud Report 2024
Battery OpenCloud Report 2024
Ventures
STATE OF THE OPENCLOUD
NOVEMBER 2024
1 AI is catalyzing a new technology supercycle, with the potential to disrupt core cloud industry dynamics.
2 Infrastructure companies have been the early beneficiaries, laying the foundation to support new AI workloads.
3 Enterprises are moving from experimentation to production, but it’s still early.
4 Public company software multiples have stabilized, and growth still matters.
6 The opportunity has never been larger, with $4T+ up for grabs as AI disrupts software, services and labor markets.
Mobile Cloud AI
iPhone Units Shipped (M) AWS EBIT Margin / Revenue (US$ B) Data Center Revenue (US$ B)
$4 $4 $4
(20%)
2008E
2008 2008A
2008 Q1'15
Q1’15 Q1'15
Q1’15 Q1’15 Q1’15 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24
Estimates Actuals
Estimate Actual Estimates Actuals Estimates Actuals
S&P 500 Performance vs. Large Cap AI Returns are Concentrated (YTD 2024 Returns)
250%
230%
PLTR 142%
200%
META 60%
150%
S&P500 23%
100% 81%
GOOG 23%
50%
^SPX 20%
0%
MSFT 8%
(50%)
Cloud Index
Jan-20
Jan-23
Oct-21
Aug-20
Oct-24
May-22
(4%)
Mar-21
Aug-23
Mar-24
(50%) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
The S&P 500 is experiencing strong growth, driven by core infrastructure companies laying the foundation for an AI-
powered future.
40%
$45
35% $41
$37 $38
31%
$34
$32
$29 $30 $66
$27 $61
$25 25% $54 26%
$54
$23 $49 25%
$45 24%
$41 $40
$36 $38 21%
$32 21% 19%
19%
$105 $110
$92 $97 $100
$82 $86 $85 $89
$74 $79
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24
AI has unlocked new workloads for cloud providers, reaccelerating growth following optimization headwinds.
Public Cloud Provider Net New Revenue Growth vs. CapEx Growth
76% 73%
65% 64%
61% 62%
57%
49%
44%46%
38% 37% 37% 35%
32%32% 32%
24%
17% 17% 19% 16%
4% 5% 2%
(8%)
(14%)
(19%)
(26%) (27%)
Q1'21 Q2'21 Q3'21 Q4'21 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24
Cloud providers are aggressively expanding AI infrastructure capacity to meet growing customer demand.
($ in Billions) $1,280
$1,060
$550 44% 5-Yr.
$870 CAGR
$460
$670
$370
$495 $260
$370 $160
$730 21% 5-Yr.
$265 $90 $600 CAGR
$45 $500
$410
$280 $335
$220
Cloud adoption is rapidly expanding with AI, and the stakes have never been higher. There is ~$2T+ of incremental
cumulative revenue that is up for grabs by 2030.
Source: Goldman Sachs research.
Note: Incremental AI ARR implied from Nvidia’s data center revenue. Battery estimates and assumptions include $25K GPU ASP, % of data center revenue attributable to Cloud Providers, Cost per GPU/Hr., and GPU
utilization rate. Cloud Giants includes AWS, GCP, and Azure.
Q3 2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026
Percentage of AI Use Cases in Production
0%
Actual Projected (Q3 2023 Survey) Projected (Q1 2024 Survey) Projected (Q3 2024 Survey)
Excitement about AI is high, but most companies are still in the early stages of deployment, with fewer projects in
production than expected.
Services $2T
TAM
$3T
TAM
Applications $650B
TAM
The potential value has never been higher as a new AI stack emerges, allowing software to penetrate a larger market
opportunity than ever before.
Source: Gartner.
Note: TAM represents 2028 estimate.
1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
EV / NTM Revenue
Average Top Quartile Average Bottom Quartile Average '23 - '24 Avg. (All Companies) '23 - '24 Avg. (Top Quartile) '23 - '24 Avg. (Bottom Quartile)
70.0x
Bottom Top
Average
Quartile Quartile
60.0x
NTM Revenue $1.9B $3.9B $4.2B
30.0x
Multiples have stabilized
20.0x
12.8x
12.7x
10.0x 7.8x
7.5x
3.5x
0.0x 3.0x
Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Oct-24
Rising interest rates and a pullback in software spending drove multiple contraction coming out of the ZIRP era, but
multiples have since stabilized.
Source: CapIQ.
Note: Market data as of 10/31/24.
($ in Billions)
$25
$23 $23 $21 $22 $22 $22 $22
0.54x $21
0.47x
0.45x
0.41x 0.42x 0.41x
0.41x 0.40x
0.36x
($47)
($49)
($51) ($52) ($52) ($53) ($54) ($55) ($56)
Despite a continued acceleration in sales and marketing spending, net new ARR has not inflected.
Source: CapIQ.
Note: All medians based on rolling LTM average.
50% 50%
44%
45% 45% 42% 41% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40%
40% 38% 37% 37%
40%
35% 35% 35%
33% 33% 34% 34%
35% 32% 32% 33% 35%
32%
30% 30%
26% 26% 26%
25% 24%
25% 23% 22% 22% 23% 23%
25% 22% 21% 21%
20% 20% 21% 20%
19% 19%
20% 17% 17% 18% 20% 18%
16% 15% 15% 16% 20%
19% 18%
13% 15% 15% 18% 17% 17%
15%
11% 15% 15%
9% 10% 14% 14% 13% 14% 10%
10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24 Q1'22 Q2'22 Q3'22 Q4'22 Q1'23 Q2'23 Q3'23 Q4'23 Q1'24 Q2'24 Q3'24
Average FCF Margin Average NTM Revenue Growth Average Rule of 40
Average FCF Margin Average NTM Revenue Growth Average Rule of 40
Top-quartile software companies have expanded profitability margins while reaccelerating growth to maintain Rule of
40 status.
Source: CapIQ.
Note: Top quartile companies represents those with a >=10x EV / NTM revenue multiple. Market data as of 10/31/24.
EV / NTM Revenue Multiple Growth vs. Profitability Contribution for Rule of 40 Companies
45%
10.5x
40%
5.7x EV / NTM Rev
35% 9.4x EV /
10%
0% 10% 20% 30%
<Rule of 40 >= Rule of 40 NTM Revenue Growth
Within the Rule of 40 bucket, companies growing >20% trade at a premium compared to their slower-growth but
more-profitable peers.
Source: CapIQ.
Note: Market data as of 10/31/24.
39.0x
40.0x
1.8x 26.9x
30.0x
Premium 23.4x
19.8x
20.0x 3.8x
21.2x 2.1x 3.2x
Premium Premium
Premium
10.0x
9.5x
7.0x 7.3x
0.0x
2021 2022 2023 2024 YTD
EV / NTM ARR (Private) EV / NTM ARR (Public)
Private companies trade at a premium ARR multiple compared to their public market peers, as private investors bet on
scaling ARR by 10x to achieve a 3x return.
240 1
71 1 1
1
1
1
240
1
104 1
26 1
1 1
78 104
1 1
1
1
1
(24) 1
(26)
1
(17) 1
(22)
(44)
1
(14)
1
1
0 (1) (2)
(33)
1 1
1
1
The backlog of software unicorns has grown by 3x since 2020 while the number of large-scale software IPOs and M&A
have declined.
Source: Pitchbook
Note: Data represents IT & B2B SaaS companies headquartered in the US excluding blockchain/cryptocurrency. Net new unicorns adjusted for exits and down rounds. Unicorns are private companies with a post-
valuation >= $1B. Logos represent a subset of the total company base. M&A shown in year announced. 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
/ / /
$ Raised $1.6B $ Raised $414M $ Raised $193M
Last Round Valuation $4.0B Last Round Valuation $1.0B Last Round Valuation $1.0B
Date of Last Round Jun 2023 Date of Last Round Feb 2023 Date of Last Round Mar 2023
Date of Acquisition Mar 2024 Date of Acquisition Jun 2024 Date of Acquisition Aug 2024
Large amounts of capital raised early in the cycle at high valuations has resulted in creative acquisitions, structured as
large-scale acquihires and licensing agreements.
$1,554
$1,588
$863
$382
$481
There is $4T of software disruption opportunity as AI unlocks additional services and human labor spend.
Source: Gartner.
Note: Battery assumptions include incremental human labor displacement based on an estimated # of global knowledge workers, penetration rate and avg. salary.
Infrastructure
As technology moats erode and competition rises, product design and user experience become core differentiators for
software companies.
• Daily active users / monthly active users • # of daily prompts / actions / tasks
Engagement
• Avg. session duration • # of monthly users with >X prompts / tasks
Retention • M-1, M-6, M-12 user and $ retention • Productivity uplift and time / cost saved
AI products require hybrid metrics: a blend of SaaS product metrics and AI-specific performance indicators.
ServiceNow has grown at a 34% CAGR over the last 10 years as product innovation has unlocked new market
opportunities to fuel growth to $10B in revenue.
Source: Wall Street research and company investor presentation.
Predictable and scalable pricing model Customers only pay for what they use, Pricing is directly tied to the cost of
where the cost per seat reflects the and the successful outcomes achieved, displaced human labor, making ROI
productivity uplift seen by resulting in true alignment between clear by linking the cost of the product
individual users. customers and vendors. to the headcount savings achieved.
Rooted in traditional subscription Forecasting is difficult with variable Does not fit every AI use case and may
pricing models, often requiring an consumption in each period, and it is ignore long-term value while focusing
upfront commitment, which can lead to easier for customers to accidentally on near-term headcount cost savings.
misalignment between cost and actual overspend when not tied to
customer value. pre-defined commitments.
As AI moves from augmentation to automation, value-based pricing is key to aligning customers and vendors.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
MQL ► SQL
Qualifying 5.0x
1 Intent 10% – 12%
4.0x
3.3x
SQL ► Actionable 2.9x
Opp. 2.5x
2 In Play 40% – 50%
• Product usage • Email interactions • 3rd party signals (GitHub, Quality of lead is just as important
• Website interactions • Customer conversations LinkedIn) as speed to lead
• Data warehouse analytics • Content interactions • Contact data
• Marketing engagements • 1st party cookies • Product reviews
Measure # of leads and conversion
• Demos • Past champions & CRM data rates through stages
Marketing Funnel
Right Message
Qualified Lead
Be data driven when it comes to demand gen and demand capture to drive higher conversion rates and quality leads.
Provides an immediate Provides a sustainable Enhances customer value Expands TAM through
revenue boost without expansion path as customers with additional high-value complimentary products.
requiring additional product naturally grow their usage / features and functionality.
Increases stickiness through
development. users.
Requires minimal change to bundled offerings and multi-
Offers a simple Aligned with customer success the sales process. product adoption.
implementation process. and lowers the risk of churn due
to increased user engagement.
Not sustainable long-term Introduces infrastructure / Involves elevated development May dilute the focus of the
(provides only a one-time scaling challenges. and marketing costs. core product.
revenue increase).
Not applicable for all products Managing multiple pricing May require a new GTM
Can trigger negative customer and pricing models. tiers increases complexity. strategy.
reactions and increase churn
risk if the perceived value
doesn’t match the new price.
Nov-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Jun-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Oct-23
Sep-23
Jan-24
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-24
Jul-24
May-23
Jul-23
Aug-23
Mar-24
• Time to first production usage
• Monthly usage growth
• Customer expansion milestones
ARR
Sales compensation in consumption models requires balancing immediate rewards with long-term
revenue realization.
AEC
Call Centers
1,600,000
Architects
x 8,600,000
$40,000 Lawyers
16,000,000
annual salary
Agents X
+
X $60,000
4,100,000 annual salary
$12,000
Civil Engineers
annual salary
x
$50,000
annual salary
By automating high-value professional work in areas such as these, AI agents can convert salary budgets into software
revenue, driving TAM growth.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics and company filings.
Note: TAM calculations based on global workforce estimates × average annual salaries in USD. ARR figures reflect latest quarterly revenues annualized.
3 3 3
In-person work fosters collaboration, strengthens company culture, enhances learning and development, and
accelerates strategic decision-making.
1
Old Guard
Software-as-
a-Service
New Guard
Services-as-
Software
A new wave of AI companies is transforming the SaaS business model by shifting from providing workflow tools to fully
automating the work itself.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
Applications
A new agent-native layer for internet information retrieval and automation is emerging.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
Current and Desired Usage of AI in the Developer Workflow AI-Native Developer Tools
AI-powered tools are emerging in every part of the developer workflow, from writing to securing code,
and have potential to unlock new productivity.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
Source: 2024 Stack Overflow Developer Survey
System of Record
AI-powered GTM tools unlock higher velocity and conversion rates through intelligent, data-driven sales workflows.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
Companies
Exploratory Self-serve
1 Visualization 2 analysis
3 analytics
Applications 1 Visualization 2 Exploratory analysis
4 Multi-language support (Python, SQL, NLP)
1
Data Sources
New BI products have an opportunity to unlock a larger user base and incorporate unstructured data to enhance
insights.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.
Pre-ChatGPT Today
is the only
private company
valued at $100B+
$8T
Enterprise
$17T
$16T
Value Enterprise
Enterpris
e Value
Value
$3,040
Cloud infrastructure and AI growth has created a new generation of trillion-dollar giants, with an unprecedented
number of high-quality companies rapidly scaling.
Source: CapIQ and Pitchbook data as of 10/31/2024.
The number of $10B+ private software companies equals the number of public software companies, with many private
companies growing faster at scale.
[]
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please visit: https://www.battery.com/list-of-all-companies
Source: Pitchbook data as of 10/31/2024. The above listed private companies are enterprise software and infrastructure software companies with valuations of $10B or greater as of October 2024. Excluded from this
analysis are public and private companies that Battery believes are not representative because they are principally vertical-focused (ex. Bentley Systems, Toast, and Guidewire, Anduril, and Brex).
IPO Current CY ’25E IPO to CY ’25E CAGR IPO Current CY ’25E IPO to CY ’25E CAGR
1
2024 700 820 1,064 87% 2019 333 2,581 3,224 54%
2021 233 730 929 55% 2018 227 1,390 1,586 37%
2021 150 796 1,029 74% 2018 180 2,371 2,872 51%
1
2021 308 940 1,163 46% 2017 142 1,912 2,270 47%
2021 832 1,265 1,583 19% 2017 195 2,584 2,828 42%
1
2020 146 412 501 34% 2016 237 4,330 4,740 42%
2020 533 3,475 4,356 64% 2015 385 4,526 5,541 34%
2019 270 1,604 2,109 48% 2012 263 8,758 9,782 34%
2019 384 3,855 4,779 58% 2012 190 10,508 13,242 40%
Cloud-native companies have 10x’ed revenue since IPO while maintaining an average growth rate of 40%.
[]
Source: CapIQ, company filings. Note: Representative companies include cloud infrastructure and software companies that have gone public since 2012.
1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please visit https://www.battery.com/list-of-all-companies/. CAGR defined as the compounded annual growth rate, calculated as
(Current Revenue / IPO Revenue)^(1 / (2023-IPO Year)) - 1
1 1
1
3.0%
1
1
1
2.5% 1 1
Software Spend as a % of US GDP
1
1
1
~51
1
1
2.0%
1
1
1
1 1
1.5% 1
1
1 1
1
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
[] 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please visit: https://www.battery.com/list-of-all-companies/
Source: Gartner Research
The information contained herein is based solely on the opinions of Dharmesh Thakker, Danel Dayan, Jason Mendel,
Sudheendra Chilappagari, Patrick Hsu and Payal Modi and nothing should be construed as investment advice. This
presentation and the anecdotal examples throughout are intended for an audience of entrepreneurs in their attempt to
build cloud-focused businesses and not recommendations or endorsements of any particular business or an offering of
investment advisory services.
Note: 1. Denotes a past or current Battery company. For a full list of all Battery investments, please click here.