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Studies in Big Data 125
Douglas G. Woolford
Donna Kotsopoulos
Boba Samuels Editors
Applied
Data Science
Data Translators Across the Disciplines
Studies in Big Data
Volume 125
Series Editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
The series “Studies in Big Data” (SBD) publishes new developments and advances
in the various areas of Big Data- quickly and with a high quality. The intent is to
cover the theory, research, development, and applications of Big Data, as embedded
in the fields of engineering, computer science, physics, economics and life sciences.
The books of the series refer to the analysis and understanding of large, complex,
and/or distributed data sets generated from recent digital sources coming from
sensors or other physical instruments as well as simulations, crowd sourcing, social
networks or other internet transactions, such as emails or video click streams and
other. The series contains monographs, lecture notes and edited volumes in Big
Data spanning the areas of computational intelligence including neural networks,
evolutionary computation, soft computing, fuzzy systems, as well as artificial
intelligence, data mining, modern statistics and Operations research, as well as
self-organizing systems. Of particular value to both the contributors and the
readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide distribution,
which enable both wide and rapid dissemination of research output.
The books of this series are reviewed in a single blind peer review process.
Indexed by SCOPUS, EI Compendex, SCIMAGO and zbMATH.
All books published in the series are submitted for consideration in Web of Science.
Douglas G. Woolford · Donna Kotsopoulos ·
Boba Samuels
Editors
Boba Samuels
Faculty of Kinesiology and Physical
Education
University of Toronto
Toronto, ON, Canada
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse
of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar
or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Preface
v
vi Preface
students to understand the assumptions that underly methods used when translating
data.
In Chapter “Transforming Data on the Boundaries of Science and Policy: The
Council of Canadian Academies’ Rhetorical Repertoire”, Falconer turns our atten-
tion to the intersection of science and policy to transform and repurpose data for
government policymakers, describing knowledge brokers as social actors who are
working on the boundaries of science, translating data in ways that it might shape
policy. Falconer refers to the ways that people communicate a message in an attempt
to persuade different audiences. The need for flexibility by data translators is made
evident.
The last chapter in our edited collection is Chapter “A Conceptual Framework
for Knowledge Exchange in a Wildland Fire Research and Practice Context” by
McFayden, Johnston, Woolford, George, Boychuk, Johnston, Wotton, and Johnston.
This chapter presents a general conceptual knowledge exchange framework and
illustrates its application to support the development of application-oriented research
outcomes to inform operational decisions made in wildland fire management. The
chapter provides an illuminating example of how translation skills among students
in a data analytics consulting course are fostered, using fire management as the
disciplinary foci. By providing a framework for considering how active learning
across differing levels of expertise and disciplinary orientation may be useful, it sets
the stage for our concluding discussion.
Collectively, the set of edited chapters in this volume highlights communication
and knowledge translation, using data, and across disciplines. Throughout these
chapters, interdisciplinarity emerges as a key theme. Pedagogically, training and
educating future data translators requires more integration across discipline experts
and conventional data scientists in a setting that encourages true knowledge exchange.
The interdisciplinarity of this type of training requires intentionality. Consequently,
we conclude this edited book with a chapter that connects key themes and focuses
on the pedagogical implications that can guide an integrated and interdisciplinary
approach to data translation.
This edited volume is a unique and timely contribution to this bourgeoning demand
for data translators. The authors all demonstrate extraordinary efforts to bridge disci-
plines in their science, education, and policy work. Indeed, the editors are represen-
tative of this necessary interdisciplinarity that is evident in this book. Woolford is a
statistical scientist. Kotsopoulos’ expertise is in pedagogy. Samuels’ expertise is in
writing. It was the intersecting perspectives of each of the three editors, grounded in
a problem of data translation, that became the seed for this volume.
Woolford, Kotsopolous, and Samuels are supported in part by funding from the Social
Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. We express our sincere grat-
itude to the esteemed contributing authors. This edited volume undertook a rigorous
review process with each chapter receiving up to five reviews, both by the editorial
team and external reviewers. Consequently, we are also grateful to the collection
of experts who provided external reviews that guided the editors’ reviews and the
revisions that followed. Finally, we would also like to express our collective deep
appreciation to our research assistant and graduate student, Brandon A. Dickson,
who provided exemplary support to this project and our authors, demonstrating the
true value of interdisciplinarity.
ix
Contents
xi
xii Contents
Abstract Over its roughly 35-year history and six climate change assessments, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has evolved a set of calibrated
terms that it uses to describe certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of the
various facets of climate science. The careful and consistent use of this calibrated
language over several assessment cycles has allowed the users of its reports to follow
the progression of our understanding of climate change, its implications, and options
for its mitigation. This chapter describes the development of the IPCC calibrated
language and discusses its relation to statistical concepts of uncertainty. The chapter
illustrates the application of the IPCC’s calibrated language by describing how the
level of confidence in the understanding of the causes of the observed global warming
has evolved over time.
The in-depth assessments of the science of climate change, its impacts, and adap-
tion and mitigation options that are performed periodically by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) can be viewed as an endpoint of an intense and
wide-ranging body of scientific activity. In the case of the IPCC, this includes consid-
eration of theory, evidence derived from hundreds of terabytes of observed climate
and weather data, and from tens of petabytes of climate model output. The IPCC is
charged with synthesizing policy-relevant information from thousands of published
analyses of all of this data and information (~14,000 peer-reviewed papers, in the
case of the most recent report from IPCC Working Group 1; WG1 [12]). The ulti-
mate results of this activity are concise summaries for policymakers that contain
the understanding of the science as agreed by the governments participating in the
F. W. Zwiers (B)
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
X. Zhang
Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
IPCC process. The last point is important—the IPCC summaries for policymakers
are negotiated documents. This is a necessary step to ensure that the information that
is subsequently used to negotiate international climate action via the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) does not, itself, become a
point of negotiation at the periodic UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties, such as the
COP-26 meeting held in Glasgow in November 2021.
The IPCC, which was established in 1988, issued its first assessment report in
1990 [2, 3] and recently completed three new comprehensive assessment reports,
including that which deals with the physical science (WG1 [12]) as the main part of
its work for its sixth assessment cycle. In addition, it typically produces between one
and three special reports with a more topical focus during each roughly seven-year
assessment cycle. IPCC assessments, which span a broad range of disciplines and
involve thousands of experts, form the essential bridge between our understanding
of climate change and its impacts on the one hand, and on the other hand, the actions
that can be taken to limit change.
A key requisite for using science to develop policy and support international
climate negotiations is to be able to communicate climate change assessments in a
way that makes assessments comparable from one report to the next. This is required
so that policy and decision makers can understand how expert consensus on climate
change and response options has evolved over time. The IPCC has therefore devel-
oped, over successive assessment cycles, an approach to the description of certainties
and uncertainties that is applicable across the breadth of the IPCC assessment, can be
understood by scientists and users alike, and that enables the evaluation of changes
in confidence and the strength of evidence from one assessment to the next.
The IPCC fifth and sixth assessment cycles use a three-tier lexicon ([5], hereafter
M+2010) for describing certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of the various
facets of climate science. This lexicon provides a framework that accommodates the
different approaches that had previously evolved in the IPCC’s three working groups,
which deal with the physical science basis (Working Group I; WG1), climate change
impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (Working Group 2; WG2), and climate change
mitigation (Working Group 3; WG3).
Early WG1 and WG3 reports of the IPCC [2–4] did not use calibrated language
to qualify findings, although WG1’s [8] assessment that
The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on climate [8,
p. 4]
Portends the likelihood assessments that would become a feature of later WG1
reports. This statement hinted that it was more likely than not that some part of the
change in our climate from pre-industrial conditions that had been observed by the
early 1990s was due to human-induced greenhouse gas increases. In contrast to WG1,
WG2 [13] did use some simple calibrated language to describe the confidence in its
key findings, basically linking levels of confidence (i.e., low, medium, and high) to
the quantity and consistency of the evidence supporting individual assessments.
WG2 [13] recognized that the process of assessing confidence levels was subjec-
tive, and that different individuals would likely assign confidence levels differently.
Translating Science into Actionable Policy Information—A Perspective … 3
Moss and Schneider ([7], hereafter MS2000) therefore developed a set of calibrated
terms that could be used to characterize uncertainty in a consistent way so that
subjective variation in assessments could be reduced, and to enable comparison of
assessments over time as the understanding of climate change evolved. They set
out a detailed assessment procedure, demonstrated its application in a number of
examples, and urged the use of a quantitative confidence scale, arguing that a numer-
ical scale would help avoid the fact that uncertainty words have different mean-
ings for different people. They thus suggested that the IPCC use five confidence
levels: very low (0–0.05), low (0.05–0.33), medium (0.33–0.67), high (0.67–0.95)
and very high (0.95–1.0), being careful to point out that these numerical confidence
values should not be confused with the statistical notion of confidence. They also
suggested a supplementary approach to uncertainty characterization based on the
amount of evidence (e.g., observations, model output, theory, etc.) and its level of
agreement/consensus, using four terms:
● Speculative—plausible ideas, but low evidence and low agreement
● Competing explanations—much evidence but low agreement
● Established but incomplete—high agreement, but not yet sufficient evidence
● Well-established—high agreement across much evidence
The MS2000 proposals were adopted in 2001 WG1 [9] and WG2 [14] reports,
albeit with variations between the two working groups. In contrast, the WG3 [16]
report did not use calibrated language in its assessments.
WG2 [14] made assessments as proposed by MS2000. In contrast, WG1 [9]
used a seven-level scale rather than the five-level scale proposed by MS2000 to
express judgments of confidence, and gave the scale a probabilistic interpretation as
subjectively determined probabilities that the statements to which they were attached
were true. The scale used in WG1 [9] has the following terms: virtually certain
(greater than 99% chance that a statement is true); very likely (90–99% chance);
likely (66–90% chance); medium likelihood (33–66% chance); unlikely (10–33%
chance); very unlikely (1–10% chance) and exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%
chance). As a key example of the application of this scale, WG1 [9] concluded that
In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of
the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations (p. 10).
NUGATOR.
SONG.
LINES
LIBERIAN LITERATURE.
The shipping list for August, exhibits eleven arrivals, and six
departures—that for April, five arrivals, and three departures—for
February, 1835, six arrivals, and four departures—for October, three
arrivals, and two departures. In the August number, are four distinct
paragraphs, each mentioning a ship arrived with emigrants to the
colony.
"The case, however," says the editor, "is not exactly parallel:
Freetown and the whole colony of Sierra Leone, ever since their
establishment, have been under the British flag, and as such,
considered a member of the British empire—and therefore, its
destruction, it might be argued, was perfectly in unison with the
established principles of war. Ours is an experiment for political
existence;—having a distinct and peculiar flag, owing allegiance
to no government, but to that which is represented by the flag
that floats over Liberia.
"We recollect having read, that at the time the great Navigator
Captain Cook, was on his voyage of discovery, war broke out
between England and France, and it was requested that Capt.
Cook, should the enemy fall in with him, be allowed an
unmolested passage. The French king replied, that he warred
not on science, nor with the principles of humanity; and that an
expedition undertaken for the benefit of all, should never meet
obstruction from the flag of France."
"To Liberia's honor be it trumped, that for ten gallons sold in the
Colony four months back, there is not one now. There are a few
that advocate the cause of alcohol; but they cannot support their
opposition long. Public opinion is issuing her imperious edicts,
and every opposer will soon be awed into silence."
This fact is found stated in the hand writing of Mr. Fox, on a blank
leaf of a copy of Gibbon's History of the Decline and Fall of the
Roman Empire, which was purchased after Mr. F's death, at a sale
of his effects. The anecdote is followed by these lines, also in Mr. F's
hand writing.
STATIUS.
CHAPTER VIII.
I was struck at once by the innate honor and Virginian feeling of the
man; and throwing the pistol aside, I tendered him my hand,
expressing at the same time my regret in having acted so
indiscreetly.
"Why do you arrest me?" continued I. "It was an open duel, and Mr.
Ludwell is not dead."
"Is that then the case?" he replied. "Will you pledge me your honor
that such is the truth? I was told that it was an unfair duel, and I have
put myself to great inconvenience to arrest you."
I gave the pledge required, and I was immediately released from the
grasp of the Commonwealth; her chivalric man of law professing
himself satisfied of my innocence, complimenting me on being a
gentleman, and wishing me good night with a profound and dignified
bow. I was in no humor to moralize on this singular scene; yet I could
not forbear to smile at this strangest of all paradoxes—that he who
was prepared to enforce the duelling law, should be so far elevated
above its vulgar penalty, that he could at pleasure either neutralize
its severity, or trample on its express ordinances, lending a
credulous heart to the dreamy nonsense of chivalry, and a deaf ear
to the trumpet-tongued voice of Be it enacted. Such is public opinion,
and such are laws; when in conflict, a Mezentian union—when acting
in harmony, the firmest and most durable base for the fabric of
government.
Pursuing my course, I fortunately encountered Scipio, who was
going to the college with his accustomed budget of letters, and
dismounting him, with orders to go and attend the sick couch of
Arthur, I took his horse, and rode rapidly on to Chalgrave. The night
wore sullenly and gloomily away, and ere morning, one of those fast,
yet light snow-storms, which rush on with a momentary though
softened fierceness, had thrown a spotless mantle around the trees,
the hills and plains of Virginia. I passed two or three of our negroes
on the skirts of the plantation, standing with slouched hats and
folded arms, like so many statues of ebony on a marble floor. 'Tis
then that melancholy spreads its deepest gloom over a Virginian
farm—a solitude fearful, still, and echoless—while all nature bows to
its stern influence. The cattle are gathered to the farm-pen, to
ruminate over a rasping shuck, or a marrowless corn-stalk. From a
pool in the stable yard, a dense and curling vapor overshadows a
motley group of ducks and geese, who are quarrelling and
floundering in undisputed possession of their odorous empire; while
the lengthened face of the prisoned plough-horse takes a more pallid
hue from the sympathy of melancholy, and is protruded on the scene
like that eternal spectre of death which is ever flitting athwart the
path of life. Within the house there is a confused hurrying to and fro
of menials in search of wood, carpets, and rugs, while the mistress
fairly frets herself into philosophy amid the snow, mud, and her own
contradictory orders. A glance from the window will disclose a crowd
of negroes collected around the wood-yard, waiting to carry the logs
cut by one, who with a heavy whirl of his ponderous axe, and a loud
moan, scatters his wounded chips at every stroke. He is then on the
crest of the highest wave of vanity, and will ever and anon rest his
axe to tell of the broad clearings which have opened beneath his
giant arm. I looked on this quiet and familiar scene with an aching
eye and a throbbing heart; yet I was soothed into peace by that
witching spell which spreads its empire from "Indus to the Pole." It
was home—that spot over whose fairy circle my heart, like the
gnomon, had dialled all its sunlit hours of joy and happiness; and in
the gushing memory of childhood's romance, I almost forgot that the
stain of blood was on my hands.
I did not disturb the family until they were seated at breakfast; and in
reply to my mother's inquiries concerning Arthur's health, I hesitated
not to relate to her the whole detail of the tragic meeting. Lucy
entered the room ere I had finished my sad narrative, and catching
the truth of my tale, suddenly stared at me with a full and lustreless
eye, and looking up for a moment, fell with an hysteric shriek on the
floor. My mother's stern pride subdued her swelling feelings, and
rising from her seat, with a starting tear in her eye, she led Lucy from
the room. Frederick remained cold and unmoved, throwing his fork
into his plate, and playing with his tea-spoon with an air of frigid
indifference. My uncle alone advanced to me, and seizing my hand,
exclaimed in a generous though quivering voice, "I will not forsake
you, my dear boy! You have been indiscreet and passionate, but
your honor is untainted! I knew that you could not wilfully kill Arthur.
Come with me; an express shall be sent to the college instantly. The
odds are greatly in favor of his recovery. I have in the library a table
of fifty duels, prepared by my pen, and strengthened by my
experience. Out of that number but four were killed, and ten
wounded. There is only one bad sign in the whole affair, and that is
the fact that Arthur fell too soon. I have known many a man carry two
balls in his body before he would droop. No wadding entered his
body, for my pistols do not bear it; and you may hope for the best."
"Why, ma'am, there is not a horse on the land fit to ride. Mass
Charles sent the mare out of the county on yesterday to Col. C.'s for
a pointer puppy, and as the boy did not come back in time, he has
sent another on the black horse to look for him. The chariot horses
Mass Charles sent to the court house, with a barrel of cider royal to
Capt. R.; and Miss Lucy's pony has not got a shoe to his foot."
"Where is the overseer?" said my mother, who was too much
accustomed to scenes of this character to lose any of the calmness
of her temper.