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A Rising China and Security in East Asia
Rex Li
First published 2009
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2009 Rex Li
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Li, Rex.
A rising China and security in east Asia: identity construction and security
discourse / Rex Li.
p. cm.
1. China—Foreign relations—East Asia. 2. East Asia—Foreign
relations—China. 3. China—Foreign relations—1976– 4. East Asia—
Politics and government. 5. East Asia—Foreign relations. 6. Elite (Social
sciences)—China—Attitudes. I. Title.
DS518.15.L5 2008
355’.03305—dc22 2008023450
Appendix 228
Notes 232
Bibliography 235
Name index 281
Subject index 289
Illustrations
Maps
1 The Pacific Rim xvi
2 China and East Asia xvii
3 China and Central and South Asia xviii
Figures
1.1 China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in RMB 1993–2007 228
1.2 China’s Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate 1993–2007 228
1.3 China’s World Trade (US$bn) 1993–2007 229
1.4 China’s Utilized FDI Inflows 229
1.5 China’s Defence Expenditure (US$bn) 1990–2006 230
4.1 Japan’s ODA Disbursements to China 1999–2005 230
6.1 Comparative Defence Spending of the Great Powers in East Asia 231
6.2 China’s Trade with Other East Asian Powers 2007 231
Preface
CANADA
USA
JAPAN
CHINA
AUSTRALIA
NEW ZEALAND
Ulan Bator
M on gol i a
The
Sea Of
Pyongyang N. Korea Japan
Beijing
Seoul
Japan
S. Korea
C h i n a Tokyo
East
China
Sea
Taipei Okinawa
Hanoi Taiwan
Myanmar
Laos The Taiwan Strait
Viangchan
Rangoon
Thailand
Manila Philippines
Bangkok Kampuchea Guam
Phnom Penh Vietnam
South
China Sea
Brunei
Kuala Lumpur Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia
Jakarta
East Timor
ULAN BATOR
K A Z A K H S T A N
MONGOLIA
UZBE
K IST
A N KYRGYZSTAN
TURKM XINJIANG
ENIS BEIJING
TAN TAJIKIST
AN
XIZANG CHINA
AFGHANISTAN
(TIBET)
PAKISTAN
IND
IA
The rise of China as a key player on the global stage is undoubtedly a significant
phenomenon in international relations (Shambaugh 2005; Wang 2004). Much of
the debate among Western scholars and analysts focuses on the questions of how
Chinese leaders will use their growing power to pursue their national interest
and how the world should respond to an increasingly powerful China. These
are no doubt important questions, but they cannot be fully answered without
taking into account Chinese security perceptions. How do Chinese leaders and
policy elites view the structure of the post-Cold War international system? How
do they perceive China’s interests and its role in the changing security environ-
ment? How are these issues related to China’s domestic political and economic
agenda?
This book aims to analyze China’s security perceptions, focusing in particular
on its perceptions of the major powers1 in East Asia – the United States, Japan
and Russia – since 1989 (see Map 1). Ever since the establishment of the People’s
Republic of China (PRC), Chinese leaders have attached tremendous importance
to great power politics in their security considerations and strategic calculations. In
recent years, China has actively developed various types of ‘strategic partnerships’
with the major powers and actors around the world. There is no doubt that China
has global aspirations but, for historical and geographical reasons, East Asia
remains China’s primary focus (see Map 2).
In terms of economic development and security concerns, East Asia is regarded
by PRC leaders as the most important region. It is a region on which Chinese
trade and economic activities depend substantially; it is a region where China has
vital security interests as well as unresolved territorial disputes which may lead
to military conflict in future. Not surprisingly, Chinese leaders have paid more
attention to the intentions and strategies of the great powers in this region. After
all, two of the East Asian powers – America and Russia – are also global powers,
nuclear weapons states and permanent members of the United Nations Security
Council. Japan, despite its somewhat limited security role, is widely known as an
economic superpower with an expanding global profile.
For analytical clarity, East Asia is taken to encompass the countries in South
East Asia and North East Asia (see Map 2). The book thus excludes systematic
analyses of Chinese security perceptions of India, a major power in South Asia
2 A rising China and Chinese security discourse
(see Map 3). This is not to suggest that India is not important and unworthy of
consideration. On the contrary, India has immense economic potential and is a
significant strategic player in the Asia-Pacific region. Indeed, it has gained greater
prominence in Chinese strategic considerations in the past decade, especially
since New Delhi’s nuclear tests in 1998 and the events of September 11, 2001.
Nevertheless, India is not a great power in East Asia, which is the geographical
focus of this study. Moreover, India is not usually characterized by PRC elites
and security analysts as a ‘pole’ or power centre in their conceptualization of a
multipolar system. Inevitably, the discussion may cover issues relating to other
countries within the Asia-Pacific, including Australia and South and Central Asian
states (see Map 1 and Map 3).
The starting point for this study is 1989, which is a significant year when China
had to face a series of unprecedented challenges both domestically and externally.
Never had the PRC government had to deal with such an immense challenge to its
authority as the Tiananmen democracy movement (Cheng 1990; Nathan and Link
2002). The crackdown of the student demonstrations in 1989 seriously undermined
the legitimacy of the Chinese communist regime in the eyes of the international
community leading to strong reactions and sanctions from the West.
Internationally, China became even more isolated following the downfall of
the communist regimes in Eastern Europe towards the end of 1989. At the same
time, the Cold War conflict between the United States and the former Soviet Union
ended peacefully. The collapse of the bipolar system which had lasted for over
forty years, together with the demise of communism in Eastern Europe and the
political change in the Soviet Union under Gorbachev, brought huge uncertainties
for China. The rapidly changing international landscape forced Chinese leaders
to reassess their country’s new security environment, especially the foreign
policies of the major East Asian powers, and to respond to the challenge of a
unipolar world.
The key argument of this book is that Chinese perceptions of the security
strategy of the major powers in East Asia are extremely important in shaping
China’s foreign policy and its policy towards the region in particular. In addition,
the book argues that Chinese security discourse on the three East Asian powers
should be understood as part of a process of identity formation through which
China seeks to construct and maintain a great power identity. As far as the level
of analysis is concerned, the study focuses on the perceptions of PRC policy elites
and international affairs analysts who are actively engaged in the articulation of
Chinese security perceptions and have regularly published their work in specialist
and policy-oriented journals.
There are five sections in this chapter. The first section highlights the signifi-
cance of the research topic and provides the context within which the research
problem emerges. The second critically reviews the current debate and the extant
literature relevant to the concerns and arguments of the book. This is followed by
a section on the research problem, including the aims and objectives of the study.
The fourth section considers the chosen research methods and the related meth-
odological issues with some discussion on the sources and data that are collected
A rising China and Chinese security discourse 3
and used in this project. The final section explains the scope of the book and how
it is organized.
Context of research
The re-emergence of China as a great power is arguably the single most important
development in the post-Cold War world. The rapid economic growth of the PRC
over the past decade, coupled with its high level of defence spending, has stimulated
much interest and trepidation among policy-makers and analysts across the world.
Although the continued augmentation of Chinese power is not predetermined, the
profound effects of China’s growing process cannot be underestimated.
Since the late 1970s, Chinese leaders have introduced a wide-ranging programme
of economic modernization (Ash, Howe and Kueh 2003; Naughton 2006). In 2007,
the Chinese economy grew 11.4 per cent in reaching 24,661.9 billion RMB. Indeed,
between 1993 and 2007 the PRC enjoyed an average of 10 per cent GDP growth
(see Fig. 1.1 and Fig. 1.2). It is now the world’s fourth largest economy (Lardy
2006: 2). Meanwhile, China has gradually emerged as a major trading nation, and
its economic and trade relations with most countries have broadened considerably.
China has been actively involved in global economic activities and is fully
integrated into the Asia-Pacific economy. The PRC is a member of all the major
international and regional economic organizations, including the World Trade
Organization (WTO), the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
the Asian Development Bank, and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum (Feeney 1994; Findlay 1995; Lanteigne 2005). Over 400 of the world’s top
500 multinational corporations have now invested in the country (Shi 2002).
As a result, there has been a huge growth in China’s foreign trade over the past
two decades. From 1978 to 2007 China’s exports grew from US$9.8 billion to
US$1218 billion, and its imports grew from US$10.9 billion to US$955.8 billion
(Lardy 1994: 30) (see Fig. 1.3). Between 1983 and 2007 actual Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) in China increased from US$916 million to US$74.8 billion
(Lardy 1994: 63) (see Fig. 1.4). Indeed, China has become the third largest trading
nation in the world (Lardy 2006: 2).
In addition, China has benefited from its involvement in a regional division
of labour and economic cooperation in East Asia (Dent 2006, 2008; Rimmer
1995). It is integrated into a number of subregional economic groupings, or
‘growth triangles’, such as the Hong Kong-Guangdong-Shenzhen triangle and the
Northeast China-Korea-Japan triangle. In addition, China is closely involved in
the development of two subregional groupings: the Yellow Sea Economic Zone,
including Liaoning and Shandong provinces, Japan and South Korea; and the
Tumen River project that seeks to promote economic cooperation among China,
Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia and Russia. Indeed, China has strong
bilateral and multilateral economic relations with all its Asian neighbours. At
the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plus Three summit in
November 2002 at Phnom Penh, the former Chinese Premier, Zhu Rongji, and
ASEAN leaders announced their decision to establish a China-ASEAN Free Trade
4 A rising China and Chinese security discourse
Area by 2010 which could become the world’s third largest trading bloc (Digital
Chosunilbo 2002; Cheng 2004).
Back in the 1990s, Western scholars had already predicted that China would
overtake Japan as an economic superpower (Salameh 1995–96: 142) and that it
might replace the United States as ‘the number one economy in the world’ (Kristof
1993: 59). To some observers, China will probably ‘catch up with American total
economic size … within a generation’ (Garnaut 2005: 516).
Apart from its growing economic strength, there has been significant progress
in China’s military modernization (Blasko 2005; Shambaugh 2002a). According
to the estimates of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the PRC
has increased its defence spending from US$11.3 billion in 1990 to US$122 billion
in 2006 (IISS 2007; National Bureau of Asian Research 2008) (see Fig. 1.5). It
has been purchasing a variety of weapons from Russia, Israel and other countries
to upgrade its air and naval power. Beijing is reported to have spent an average
of £650 million on Russian fighter jets and warships each year (The Times 2003).
Over the past two decades, substantial improvement has been made in the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA) Navy’s surface combatants, destroyers, frigates and
submarine forces. Recent acquisitions from Russia include the well-known
Sovremenny-class destroyers. In 2002 China ordered 8 Project 636 Kilo-class
submarines from Russia (The Times 2003). The purchase of Russian aircraft such as
Su-27 and Su-30 and the development of indigenous fighters (e.g. Jian-10 fighter-
bomber) are further evidence of the PLA Air Force’s modernization efforts.
Strategic forces are also a very important part of China’s defence modernization.
A sustained effort has been made to improve the range and accuracy of its missile
force. In 1992 China had only eight intercontinental-range ballistic missiles
(ICBM); today it has over forty of them. Similarly, the number of China’s
intermediate-range ballistic missiles increased from 60 in 1992 to more than 150
in 2007. In addition, Beijing now possesses over 900 short-range ballistic missiles
(SRBM) (IISS 1992; US Department of Defense 2007). There are, of course, many
weaknesses in China’s military capabilities, but PRC leaders seem determined
to press ahead with their defence modernization. They have introduced serious
reforms in every aspect of their military forces, and if the reforms continue, in the
next two decades the PLA may well become a very powerful army with a capability
to project force beyond China’s borders.
Many believe that the size, population and resources of China, combined with
the enormous economic and military potential, make it almost inevitable that the
country will achieve a great-power status. Others are, however, somewhat more
sceptical about the prospects of a rising China. Indeed, following the collapse
of the communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, there
were speculations that China would follow the Soviet path of disintegration (see
Ferdinand 1992 for a critical consideration of these speculations). Some researchers
argued that Chinese provinces had gained much autonomy in economic decision-
making since the 1980s as a result of a greater emphasis on the market economy
and economic decentralization (Breslin 1996). They pointed out that regional au-
thorities had become more assertive in promoting and protecting their interests, and
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